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Peter's avatar

The one thing that having Cohen as owner should give Mets fans is a lack of stress re: pending free agents. If the player wants to stay and the Mets want the player to stay, that player will stay (see Diaz and Nimmo). If the player wants to leave, he will leave (see Jake). Pete has decided he wants to test the market; that is perfectly fine. None of us know what has been offered or discussed at a high level, so it's pretty tough to opine on what each side should have done differently.

I have basically no stress about Pete. I'd like him to stay but we will see how the season plays out and what the markets look like next year. If he has an MVP type season and plays himself into the 8-year area then the Mets will have a decision to make. However the decision will be "do we want to do this?" not "can we do this?" and that is quite a big difference.

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Jimmy P's avatar

Little quibbles:

* I think it's a little cynical to think that Scott, Megill, and Butto will be the three to emerge from the current group of pitchers to start in 2025. I mean, I know you were saying "as of now," but it's pretty meaningless to say. There are a lot of compelling arms in the Mets system and we really have no idea where McLean and Sprout will be a year from now, much less Vasil and Hamel and Stuart and Tidwell and Ziegler and Peterson. They *all* project to be #3-4-5 types? Somebody will emerge from the talented pack. Plus there will be a trade. And if we want to keep Houser, or Severino, or Manea, we have the ability to do that. Personally, I don't believe in Mr. Megill.

* If Soto is part of the plan, it's a terrible plan. He's a Yankee for life. They are not going to watch him cross the street to star for the cross-town rivals, and only a fool would leave the Yankees for the Mets. It never happens. Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Soto. I will admit that you never know, and anything is possible, and there's always a chance, but as a strategy, it's awful. The Yankees traded for him knowing that he's going to require a $450-$500 million deal.

* I'm happy to make Pete the highest paid 1B in baseball. He's a free agent and it's his time. Look at the QBs in the NFL. The highest paid guy is mostly a function of timing and leverage. With Pete, it's about contract length. Six years sounds right. 6/$180 or 7/$200. My guess is that he wants 10/$300. If somebody wants to top that, and Pete wants to leave NY, I would wish him luck in Colorado with Kris Bryant.

* I'm curious: There's been anger expressed here & elsewhere at Cohen/Stearns for not signing Pete yet, despite no one having any idea about the terms of that contract. Now that you've watched the signings of other Boras contracts -- Chapman, Snell, Bellinger -- do you still feel that the Mets should have so easily and quickly capitulated to the agent's demands? Or does the current strategy now make sense? Are you less livid about it?

* The other Pete factor here is: Who replaces him? The additional time of a year's development for Parada and Clifton, and Baty and Vientos, will provide more information. For the Braves, they figured, let's trade for Olson. For the Mets . . . ?

* I hope the Mets can keep Pete, he's an asset to any lineup, and I also really hope that he plays a lot better than he did in 2023, with a BELOW LEAGUE-AVERAGE BA and OBP.

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Jeffrey Bellone's avatar

Great thoughts, as always, Jimmy. To your point on the up-and-coming starters, of course there is a possibility that one of them emerges into a better starter than initial projections. But looking at 2025, would I count on any of them being a front-line starter yet? No. Which is why I think they will look to supplement the young arms in free agency while they develop on their own timeline.

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Jimmy P's avatar

Agreed. Be interesting if Fried's arm holds up. Had forearm tightness last year. That's often a precursor. I do think a few of these guys have the potential to reach Montgomery levels.

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Wendy's avatar

Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio…and Soto? Bold analogy but I do agree that if Soto leaves the Yankees, it will not be for the Mets.

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Matthew Guadagno's avatar

He's a Boras client. Overpay and he will come.

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Wendy's avatar

Yes but Jimmy makes a good point: will the Yankees let him go now that they have him? Also, not sure Cohen wants to get into a bidding war with the Yankees.

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Jimmy P's avatar

I would argue that unless something wildly unforeseen happens, the Yankees CAN'T let him walk. They are in the same spot the Mets were in with Lindor, but much worse, because he's a bigger star and Lindor wasn't going to play for the Yankees. Do they want to see Soto in a Mets uniform on the cover of the NY POST for the next dozen years? In my mind, for better or for worse, when the Mets failed to trade for Soto, the dream died.

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Wendy's avatar

They traded five players for Soto - four of them pitchers. Seems the Mets did not have the inventory to pull it off. Someday.

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Matthew Guadagno's avatar

I think the Yanks stole Soto. King is the headliner in the deal and hes 29!

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Jimmy P's avatar

The best guy in the deal is like 28 years old. We could have beat that deal -- but the timing was not right -- we're sailing in a different direction. By next winter, we'll have some highly interesting prospects to trade (because you can't keep them all).

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Jimmy P's avatar

In the history of the Mets, when has a player ever gone to the Mets when there was a similar offer on the table from the Yankees? Beltran nearly begged the Yankees to come close. I see him in the 13/$520 range. How much higher do the Mets need to go? He's going to love being a Yankee.

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Jimmy P's avatar

I believe that Soto becomes part of that baseball legacy if he stays with the Yankees. He is a generational talent on par, I think, with the Mays-Aaron-Clemente years where he's just a fixture in the All-Star Game outfield. (I'm not saying he's better than Mays.) Mostly, though, I think that's how he sees it. You can add other names: Mantle, Jeter, Judge. Part of the Yankees Mt. Rushmore if he stays.

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

Outstanding post

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Matthew Guadagno's avatar

I've said it before and i'll say it again. I have no problem with the Mets making Pete the highest paid 1B in the game. The problem is that it appears that isn't enough for him. We have heard from Boras that the current top 1B contracts are not a fair comparison to Pete. Instead hes looking at contracts given to Fielder ($214m), Votto ($225m). I've heard more than once that he wants something similar to Judge! Bottom line, Its gonna be a long off-season in 24/25.

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Jeff Hysen's avatar

The 2d and 3d sentences are most pertinent. He's not as good as Goldschmidt (a 4X Gold Glover while Pete has a negative defensive WAR) but he will want more than Goldschmidt.

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Jimmy P's avatar

I believe that comp is irrelevant. Goldschmidt signed that deal in 2019. Pete will be the biggest slugger (outside of Soto) available on the marketplace. It doesn't matter what somebody got two years ago, much less five years ago. Prices are going up.

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Steve B's avatar

Another excellent podcast guys ! Very fair and objective- especially about Cohen and totally correct on Boras - well said.

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Bob Wagner's avatar

Pete has to establish his value. First, he needs to have a much better season than he had last year. I think he will He had bad luck with BAPIP last year and his overall numbers are brought down by playing through the wrist HBP. Second, what he’s worth is not some number Boras pulls out of the air; it’s what another team is willing to pay him. The only way to find that out is by free agency.

And I think part of the reason that Vientos is being handed DH at bats on a silver platter is that they want to see if he can be next year’s first baseman. He probably projects as a good defender there-better than Alonso.

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Wendy's avatar

Interesting about Vientos. The Mets need to draft or develop and left-handed first baseman. Keith Hernandez is right about that.

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Jimmy P's avatar

Clifford throws and bats left. Big year for him to get out of Brooklyn -- where the wind whips in off the ocean -- and mash in Binghamton. His value could skyrocket. I'd also want to get more of a look at him as a potential hit-first outfielder, in the event the Mets retain Alonso. Big year for him.

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Glenn Kassman's avatar

I have been saying for months that signing Alonso may not be in the Mets long term best interests. People have been slamming the organization on social media for not extending him, which is absolutely ridiculous. He retained Boras to become a free agent and then sign with the highest bidder. There was never a chance of extending him. In the meantime, the Mets get to let the season play out. Not only in terms of Alonso’s performance, but to see what the prospects have. I love Pete, and there is a value to his being home grown, but he is NOT a $300 million player. I was far more attached to Jacob deGrom, but because of his injury history, I didn’t think he was worth $185 million. All indications are, he wasn’t. The article provides very tangible reasons that it may not be best for the Mets for Alonso to remain in the Orange & Blue beyond 2024.

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Jimmy P's avatar

Off-Topic: I'd love to see us all post our season predictions a day or two before Opening Day. Just the win-loss record. I vacillate until the very last minute. Last year I was pessimistic and had us at 87, which was relatively low (but not nearly low enough!). This year I suspect that I'm more optimistic than most (not my usual position to be in). What's a great bullpen worth? Will the Mets have one? I'm thinking yes, I think so. At least, okay, it should be very good. That's a huge change from last season (if, you know, it actually happens).

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Peter's avatar

86 wins! I'm banking on the pitching staying relatively healthy and being much better than most seem to think it will be. I think the ceiling of our offense is an average one in the NL but I think the depth of the pitching and the improved defense will be more impactful than we think.

I also think the rest of the NL is mostly bad.

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Wendy's avatar

82-80 but we flirt with wild card hijinks. We end the season with knowledge that the Mets are going in the right direction.

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Wendy's avatar

Good idea.

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GermanMetsFan's avatar

If i told you that the Mets could sign Juan Soto OR Pete Alonso to a long term contract - is there anyone around here who would really prefer Pete?!?

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Wendy's avatar

Underrated comment.

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

No evidence it will require $300M to sign Alonso. No evidence of an offer made and declined. Nothing.

He’s happy in NY. The fans are happy with him. Cohen has the ability to pay him what the market will bear. There are few better options to play 1B and bat 4th.

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Wendy's avatar

Let’s stop worrying about Pete and his contract. Pete has to produce or this conversation is moot. I don’t care what Pete wants - I want him to play at a Judge-like level all season. Hit, hit with power, run, field and throw. Right at this moment, Pete only hits with power. A very flawed free agent, indeed.

I caught a bit of Opening Day in South Korea. Mrs. Ohtani is the definition of “kawaii” and gets excited when Shohei hits a foul ball. Baseball seemed new to her. Also, Mookie Betts is amazing. I cannot believe he’s the Dodgers’ shortstop and he’s more than serviceable. Just a great athlete.

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

And if he puts together a 2022 Judge Season, then I guess Cohen will pay for it in arrears. Oh well.

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Jimmy P's avatar

In 7 seasons, Judge has an OPS over 1.000 3x. Only once was he under .900, with an OPS of .891. Over his 5 seasons, Pete was over .900 exactly once, his rookie year. Pete's career OBP is .342. Judge is at .396. His line last year: .267/.406/.613. Pete -- who is a nice player, for sure -- hit .217/.318/.504. There is no comparison. None. And also: Judge plays a difficult position. Pete stands immobile at 1B and is pretty good at digging out bad throws.

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Wendy's avatar

In your heart of hearts, do you think Pete is capable of a Judge-like season? I’m not from Missouri but tatale is going to have to show me.

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

I don’t think Judge is capable of (another) judge like season. He’s too injury prone and people don’t get less injury prone in their 30s (except Nimmo)

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Peter's avatar

I'm not sure anyone is capable of that season frankly. It was ridiculous. From a purely hitting perspective, it was possibly the best non-Bonds season in the modern era. Trout had a few right up there as an overall type player and Betts had his 2018 season, but it's tough to find a better season from the plate than what Judge did.

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Wendy's avatar

All I am asking is for Pete to put together a full season. Without slumps that last weeks. Without him chasing the outside pitch 20 ABs. No boneheaded throws to home or second. Produce, sir. If you produce, it will come.

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Wendy's avatar

Probably not but when he had to do it, he did it. I’ve seen Pete have too many “walkabouts” to think he’s capable of that kind of season. Pete is very emotional. Judge was a machine in his walk year. Again, make it hard on us, Pete.

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Bu's avatar

I've been a life long ny mets fan .and not to many bright spots over my lifetime.

If mets let generational player pete alanso walk in free agency..I will burn all my mets merchandise and stop being a fan!!!

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Pete J.'s avatar

It’s the Nimmo contract that is gonna age terribly. That’s a ton of AAV and years tied up in a guy already moved off CF. I know he’s immensely popular in the fan base and for good reason, but he’s the one they should’ve let walk. Then you’re in a much better position to overpay Pete, who is the sexy power bat “2nd tier” star from a league perspective, “1st tier” from the standpoint of what he means to the Mets.

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

Nimmo is an outstanding player. He’s still a center fielder until a better one comes along, and few are better. Very few. They didn’t bring Bader in because we needed a better center fielder. And I’ll believe Bader is the center fielder after he’s had a healthy and productive season. Which has never happened in his career. Fingers crossed Stearns had a crystal ball rather than just rolled the dice.

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Jimmy P's avatar

Nimmo plays left field now. And most CFers in MLB are better defensively. Rag arm and he plays on the warning track. Even Taylor is far better defensively than Nimmo. Jett Williams is the Mets next full-time CFer, and hopefully that happens in 2025.

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Jimmy P's avatar

I think Bader mashes LHP and he almost certainly won't be an everyday guy unless he earns it. One-year contract. He's a placeholder but also radically improves OF defense when he's out there.

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Rushik P's avatar

I like Alonso as a person and for his power. But sorry if Boras thinks he will get 30m aav or a long term contract then good bye. He isn’t a top 1b in the game. Mets finally have a front office that I think I can trust in Stearns.

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Sandy's avatar

But otherwise a fantastic note. It is a real conundrum. I know this can’t be quantified by fancy analytics but there is real value to fans (important people in this context) of seeing home grown stars, especially those who bleed orange and blue, stay with their team.

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Jimmy P's avatar

The Braves fans watched Freeman walk and they are perfectly fine.

The Dodgers fans watched Seager walk, and Turner, and they are perfectly fine.

It's interesting to me to see old, worn out Joey Votto -- a Red for life! -- now trying to hang on with the Blue Jays. Were those last few years with the Reds really all that special for the fans?

OTOH, I think consistency within the organization is really important, which must come along with the other really important thing: winning (they can't exist without each other). I forget the numbers, but the quantity of GMs and managers that Nimmo has experienced with the Mets is a staggering detail that spells chaos. So pick one person who I hope is still around in eight years? David Stearns.

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Sandy's avatar

Fair points. Winning is the great elixir. Turner was not a life long Dodger and Votto has been mostly a shell of his former self for a few years now. I’m not saying break the bank for Juan Lagares - I’m saying you do it for Pete freakin Alonso.

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

I agree with Sandy. Pete Alonso is a home grown superstar. 40+ HR and 100+ RBI every year. Many assumptions being made here about his demands. No evidence (like usual) that the team has made an offer and he’s rejected it. He wants Judge money? Says who?He doesn’t deserve more than Olsen and Freeman? They’re both underpaid due to market timing circumstances.

Pete Alonso will make money for the New York Mets for decades to come, if everyone plays their cards right. His name adorns the jerseys in the crowd like Piazza and Seaver and Wright.

Will he hit 400 HR as a New York Met? 500? Hall of Fame? It’s not impossible.

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Matthew Guadagno's avatar

Says Martino.

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

When did Martino say that?

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Matthew Guadagno's avatar

Baseball show with Licata on SNY. Thats what hes hearing, and the Mets and Alonso were very far apart on a contract.

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Matthew Guadagno's avatar

You don;'t though. Thats exactly what Stearns is saying. When you spend big, it has to be a worthwhile investment. Alonso's profile is one of a player who wont age well.

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Sandy's avatar

Freddie Freeman aging ok.

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Matthew Guadagno's avatar

Freeman and Alonso play the same position, but are not the same kind of player.

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Jeff Hysen's avatar

Right Freeman has won a GG and stole 23 bases last season.

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Jimmy P's avatar

Again: It's all about length. I say six years would be right and fair.

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Sandy's avatar

Is it me or did you call Pete Alonso a second-tier star? “I said good day, sir!”

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Rushik P's avatar

💯 second tier

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Jimmy P's avatar

First tier, second tier, I don't know. I do think, to his credit, that Pete is capable of putting up MVP-contender seasons. He's going to be the highest-paid 1B in AAV in baseball next year, even though he isn't the best. I'm fine with that. That's how it works. He's going to get his big payday and there's a lot of ego involved in that experience.

Nimmo & Diaz stayed with the Mets because they wanted to stay with the Mets. If Pete decides the same thing, he'll be a very wealthy man and a beloved Mets icon. It's his call.

Sidenote: Pete led MLB in hit by pitches last season. He dives over the plate. While he's a bull and Everyday Pete, I worry about the injury risk.

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