Good Morning:
⚾️ Baseball is back! We are still eight days away from the Mets’ opener, but the Dodgers and Padres have officially kicked off the 2024 season in Korea.
Today, I will talk about why the Mets might let Pete Alonso walk in free agency. But before we get into that, a few news and notes from yesterday’s 3–1 Mets win.
☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
☀️ OPENING DAY LINEUP: Manager Carlos Mendoza trotted out what could be his Opening Day lineup on Tuesday, with Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso at the top, followed by Jeff McNeil making his spring debut in the cleanup spot.
Bottom of the order: The offense managed to generate only five hits, four of them coming from the bottom of the lineup, including a home run by Brett Baty.
Left on base: It was a familiar outcome to Mets fans with the lineup going 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position and leaving 10 runners on base.
McNeil: In his first game action from a biceps injury, McNeil looked his typical self, drawing an 11-pitch walk after swinging at the first pitch he saw. He finished the game 0-for-2 with that walk.
♠️ DEALING: Sean Manaea rode his fastball to pitch five innings of one-run ball, while striking out six and walking one. He threw his lead pitch 52 times, drawing lots of contact, but keeping damage to a minimum.
Slider: After the game, he called his slider the “worst” and “best” pitch he threw in the outing. It’s both because it profiles as a sweeper at times, allowing him to earn whiffs, but yesterday it had more drop, requiring better command.
🚔 CAUGHT STEALING: Francisco Álvarez continues to show off his new mechanics and arm behind the plate, nabbing two more runners on Tuesday. He has caught eight runners this spring, three more than any other Major League catcher.
“He’s a really good receiver but he’s got a cannon and he’s continued to do better,” manager Carlos Mendoza said of Alvarez's defense. “The quickness and the ability to get the ball to second base with accuracy. He’s having a really good camp, so far, behind the plate.”
⚾️ BULLPEN CANDIDATE: Right-hander Yohan Ramírez, acquired from the White Sox for cash in December, is making a strong case to be placed on the Opening Day roster.
Multiple innings: For the second straight outing, he pitched two innings of scoreless relief, striking out two after whiffing four in his last appearance. His ability to pitch multiple innings carries added value for the bullpen. He has yet to allow a run in eight spring innings.
Out of options: Ramírez is one of several relievers out of options, meaning the Mets would have to clear him through waivers to send him to the minors. It will be a tough decision between him, Michael Tonkin, Sean Reid-Foley and Phil Bickford for the final two bullpen spots, with all four out of options.
🎧 Mets Fix Podcast
In our latest episode, Blake, Peter and JB breakdown recent Steve Cohen’s and David Stearns’ recent public comments, discuss Scott Boras’ approach to free agency and get into whether Ji-Man Choi deserves a spot on the roster.
🍎 Why the Mets might let Pete Alonso walk
It’s been the topic of the offseason, Steve Cohen recently put to rest the idea of getting a deal done during the season, so today I want to offer a more detailed perspective of why the Mets might be cautious in signing Pete Alonso to a new contract.
1️⃣ A sustainable payroll
Everything starts and stops with payroll, even with Steve Cohen as your owner.
While Cohen might not mind having the highest payroll in baseball, it’s clear he doesn’t want a payroll that is $100 million more than the next team. He’s a businessman, he wants to run a smart and efficient business. That’s why David Stearns is here.
2025 payroll: If the Mets want to reset their tax penalties and bring their payroll to a sustainable level while still pursuing the most expensive free agents, they need to be careful about their biggest expenditures. As I have previously detailed, the Mets could have anywhere from $40-to-$70 million in breathing room below the initial luxury-tax threshold next offseason. That gives them an opportunity to spend big, but the question is on whom.
Luxury shopping: Based on recent comments by both Cohen and Stearns, it’s clear the Mets do not want to be spending large sums in the faux luxury department. Why shop at Men’s Wearhouse when you can afford a suit from Brooks Brothers?
“Where big-market clubs historically have gotten themselves into long-term trouble is by making repeated big mistakes in the luxury aisle of the supermarket,” David Stearns recently told The Athletic. “So we’re going to shop in that aisle, but we have to do so intelligently, and we have to do so when it makes sense for the overall direction of our franchise.”
It’s why I believe they will be extremely cautious in offering a massive payday to Pete Alonso. I will put aside the argument whether they should consider trading him if this is the route they decide to take to focus on why moving on from Alonso might make sense.
Based on early reporting and knowing Scott Boras’ track record, it appears Alonso will be seeking a record-breaking deal for a first baseman, with an AAV in the neighborhood of $30 million.
Meanwhile, Juan Soto is set to become a free agent next winter at the ripe age of 26. There are several premium starting pitchers expected to hit the market next winter as well.
You can afford to pay a Soto-type player (or ace pitcher) a ridiculous amount if you’re not already paying several second-tier stars ridiculous amounts.
2️⃣ The Mets need pitching
This is no secret. But it gets even more dire after this season. As of this morning, the 2025 rotation might look something like this:
Kodai Senga
Sean Manaea
Tylor Megill
Christian Scott
José Buttó
The Mets lack pitching prospects whom you would project as top-of-the-rotation starters. The most they can count on from their farm system over the next two-to-three years are depth to middle-of-the-rotation arms.
That means they will need to heavily supplement the pitching staff in free agency. That costs money. David Stearns could easily spend over half of the potential $70+ million he might have available below the luxury tax in 2025 on pitching.
3️⃣ Pay attention to the Dodgers and Braves
I think it’s important for the Mets to pay attention to what the Dodgers are doing, not just because Steve Cohen referenced them in describing how he wants his team to be in the future, but because their approach to payroll is much more efficient.
High-end talent: The three highest paid players on the Dodgers roster right now are Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Those three players ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 5th in fWAR last season, respectively. In other words, as the Dodgers are competing for a championship, their three highest-paid players are three of the best players in all of baseball.
To get to this point, the Dodgers had to spend several offseasons letting star players walk in free agency (deciding to hold onto them through the season to keep their competitive odds the highest), while avoiding onerous deals. That meant losing the player ranked seventh on that list and won the World Series MVP, Corey Seager, along with star shortstop Trea Turner, while avoiding multi-year deals on pretty much everyone else.
Closer to home, the Braves have also avoided mega-deals. Since Alex Anthopoulos took over as president in November 2017, Atlanta’s biggest free-agent expenditure was a four-year, $65 million deal for outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who was already with the team. They let arguably the franchise’s most popular player walk in free agency, choosing instead to invest in a younger Matt Olson. With either Freeman or Olson, the Braves would have two of the top five players on the list above. They are betting on Olson remaining on that list longer than Freeman.
🧮 Adding it all up
Now, let’s look at where the Mets could be in two years when they are trying to be legit championship contenders.
With Alonso in the fold, their three highest-paid players could be Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Alonso. They respectively ranked 8th, 32nd and 64th in fWAR last season.
With each passing the age of 30 by 2025, are they likely to get better or worse in that time? That’s a decision the Mets will need to make in deciding how to allocate future salary. It’s why Juan Soto might become a top priority over Alonso.
🔗 Mets X-factors: How has spring gone for some of their most important players? by Tim Britton, The Athletic ($): “A year after he posted a 6.65 ERA and negative WAR, Severino is slated to start the second game of the season behind José Quintana. After he tossed five innings and about 85 pitches in a minor-league game on Tuesday, Severino’s a Sunday start away from finishing the spring healthy. That’s no small accomplishment for the right-hander, and he knows it.”
🔗 McNeil embracing rapid spring ramp-up, by Anthony DiComo, MLB: “With seven work days to go until the opener, McNeil should have plenty of time to increase his at-bat count via Grapefruit League games and additional backfield reps. He’s not concerned about the quick ramp-up; if anything, part of McNeil prefers a lighter spring workload.”
🔗 Mets’ wild-card chances could use a Steve Cohen boost, by Joel Sherman, NY Post ($): “Some team was going to sign Cody Bellinger. And Matt Chapman. And Blake Snell. The expectation all winter was that before the regular season, Dylan Cease would be traded. However, for the Mets, did they all have to wind up with NL teams likely to also be in the wild-card hunt?”
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The one thing that having Cohen as owner should give Mets fans is a lack of stress re: pending free agents. If the player wants to stay and the Mets want the player to stay, that player will stay (see Diaz and Nimmo). If the player wants to leave, he will leave (see Jake). Pete has decided he wants to test the market; that is perfectly fine. None of us know what has been offered or discussed at a high level, so it's pretty tough to opine on what each side should have done differently.
I have basically no stress about Pete. I'd like him to stay but we will see how the season plays out and what the markets look like next year. If he has an MVP type season and plays himself into the 8-year area then the Mets will have a decision to make. However the decision will be "do we want to do this?" not "can we do this?" and that is quite a big difference.
Little quibbles:
* I think it's a little cynical to think that Scott, Megill, and Butto will be the three to emerge from the current group of pitchers to start in 2025. I mean, I know you were saying "as of now," but it's pretty meaningless to say. There are a lot of compelling arms in the Mets system and we really have no idea where McLean and Sprout will be a year from now, much less Vasil and Hamel and Stuart and Tidwell and Ziegler and Peterson. They *all* project to be #3-4-5 types? Somebody will emerge from the talented pack. Plus there will be a trade. And if we want to keep Houser, or Severino, or Manea, we have the ability to do that. Personally, I don't believe in Mr. Megill.
* If Soto is part of the plan, it's a terrible plan. He's a Yankee for life. They are not going to watch him cross the street to star for the cross-town rivals, and only a fool would leave the Yankees for the Mets. It never happens. Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Soto. I will admit that you never know, and anything is possible, and there's always a chance, but as a strategy, it's awful. The Yankees traded for him knowing that he's going to require a $450-$500 million deal.
* I'm happy to make Pete the highest paid 1B in baseball. He's a free agent and it's his time. Look at the QBs in the NFL. The highest paid guy is mostly a function of timing and leverage. With Pete, it's about contract length. Six years sounds right. 6/$180 or 7/$200. My guess is that he wants 10/$300. If somebody wants to top that, and Pete wants to leave NY, I would wish him luck in Colorado with Kris Bryant.
* I'm curious: There's been anger expressed here & elsewhere at Cohen/Stearns for not signing Pete yet, despite no one having any idea about the terms of that contract. Now that you've watched the signings of other Boras contracts -- Chapman, Snell, Bellinger -- do you still feel that the Mets should have so easily and quickly capitulated to the agent's demands? Or does the current strategy now make sense? Are you less livid about it?
* The other Pete factor here is: Who replaces him? The additional time of a year's development for Parada and Clifton, and Baty and Vientos, will provide more information. For the Braves, they figured, let's trade for Olson. For the Mets . . . ?
* I hope the Mets can keep Pete, he's an asset to any lineup, and I also really hope that he plays a lot better than he did in 2023, with a BELOW LEAGUE-AVERAGE BA and OBP.