A peek at the 2025 Payroll
Morning Dose: Wednesday, March 6
☀️ Good Morning:
It’s always a good day when the Mets beat the Yankees, no matter which date it is on the calendar. Tylor Megill continues to look sharp. Max Kranick’s roster flexibility. Justin Verlander’s impact on the Mets’ 2025 payroll. A new episode of the Mets Fix podcast.
☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
❶ Tylor Megill missing bats
The tall, right-hander added three more scoreless innings to his spring ledger on Tuesday, striking out six (!) Yankees, while walking two and holding them hitless.
He has now struck out 13 batters over eight Grapefruit frames, allowing a lone earned run, as he continues to make the case to fill Kodai Senga’s spot in the rotation to start the season.
Cutter: It was most interesting to see the use of his cutter, which he effectively located inside to left-handed batters as a strike-inducing pitch to offset his fourseamer and to help set up this nasty curveball out of the zone.
For all the talk about his spork, which he used to earn three whiffs on Tuesday, having another fastball that he can locate in the zone against lefties would be a great add to his repertoire.
❷ Max Kranick fourth option
In a bit of good news, Joel Sherman of the NY Post reports Max Kranick qualifies for a fourth minor-league option, giving the Mets more flexibility than originally anticipated. He can now be optioned to the minor leagues without being exposed back on waivers after he returns from the injured list.
Players who have accrued less than five “full” seaons between the Majors and Minors (defined as spending at least 90 days on the Active and/or Development List in a given season), and who have had all three of their options exhausted, are eligible for a fourth option.
❸ Justin Verlander injury
The former Met will begin the season on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation, as he did last year.
“He's doing very well, but we're just running out of days here, and we won't be able to build him up enough to start the season,” Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters on Tuesday. “It's just a timing issue. We want to do what's best for J.V. and our club, and this is what's best for us right now.”
As we will discuss next, Verlander’s health will dictate whether the Mets will be forced to pay an additional $17.5 million towards his vesting option in 2025.
🎧 Mets Fix Podcast
Blake, Peter and JB discuss the best free agent contracts, the current market and the Mets’ plans for spending.
🍎 A peek at the Mets’ 2025 Payroll
It has been well documented that the Mets are going to exceed the highest tax threshold in 2024 with a luxury-tax payroll projected to reach over $320 million.
What about next season? Where do things currently stand?
In short, a lot better. Next offseason is when things start to clean up:
The Mets only have $133.7MM in guaranteed salaries on the books for 2025, including Sean Manaea, who can opt out of his contract following the 2024 season.
That is over $100 million below the initial tax threshold of $241 million.
Of course, that total gets reduced a bit when you account for arbitration-eligible players, 40-man-roster players on split contracts and the amounts allocated towards player benefits and the pre-arbitration pool, as detailed in the table below.
Baseline Payroll:
Using reasonable arbitration estimates on players you would expect the Mets to tender a contract to next season, such as Tyrone Taylor, David Peterson and Tylor Megill, while accounting for the other items listed above, it leaves roughly $62 million in breathing room below the initial 2025 tax threshold of $241 million.
Minimum Pre-Tax Space:
That $62 million could shrink if Jake Diekman pitches in 58 games this season, triggering a $4 million option, or if Justin Verlander pitches 140 innings, putting the Mets on the hook for 50% of his $35 million vesting option (a possibility that could be impacted by his start on the injured list discussed above).
Assuming the aforementioned options are triggered and if Manaea does not opt out of his 2-year, $28 million pact, it would leave the Mets with only ~$40 million in pre-tax space.
Manaea’s 2025 salary is a bit of a Catch-22: if he has a strong 2024 campaign, he will likely opt out, which would give the Mets an extra $13.5 million in tax space. However, it would also mean they would lose a starter who proved he fits nicely in the rotation.
Diekman is an easier scenario: if he proves to be a reliable bullpen piece, retaining him at $4 million is a good deal.
Maximum Pre-Tax Space:
If everything breaks the Mets way in terms of options next offseason, they could have as much as $75 million in breathing room below the initial tax threshold. That would allow them to play in the deep-end of the free-agency pool while also potentially resetting their tax penalties.
How to spend it:
The Mets will need every dollar they can get if they want to chase multiple premier free agents next offseason.
If we look at what some of the top names on next year’s market could fetch in terms of AAV, it’s clear why things would be tight if Manaea sticks around and they are forced to pay another year on Verlander’s contract:
Juan Soto $41.0 MM
Corbin Burnes $30.0 MM
Pete Alonso $27.5 MM
Let’s assume the Mets eventually come to terms with Pete Alonso on a new contract in the range of 7-years, $192.5 million, which would give him the highest AAV for a first baseman at $27.5 million.
Only under the best-case scenario would that leave the front office with enough money to chase one of the other marquee names, while still having some breathing room to make other moves — remember, they will still need to fill out their rotation and bullpen and decide if they want reinforcements in the lineup.
You can see why David Stearns was cautions in handing out multi-year contracts this offseason. And you can also see why Justin Verlander reaching 140 innings will be a key storyline to watch this season. Without that extra $17.5 million in space, it could be challenging to reset the tax penalties.
That said, even if the Mets are tax payers for a fourth consecutive season, the key is resetting the payroll where they are no longer carrying dead money, as they have in bulk since Steve Cohen took over as owner of the team.
🟢 BACK AT IT: Edwin Díaz was back on the mound during the Mets’ intrasquad minor-league game on Tuesday, striking out top prospect Jett Williams, while pitching a perfect inning.
“I just feel like I need competition. I’m ready,” Diaz said afterward, according to SNY. “I’m throwing my pitches like I want to. I feel 100 percent ready, so I need games, I told them. …Today was really good.”
👍 POSITIVE STEPS: Jeff McNeil’s left bicep is “feeling a lot better” and he could play in a minor league game as soon as Wednesday.
◾️ Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito could miss the entire 2024 season after imaging showed damage in his right elbow.
◾️ Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. is expected to be ready for Opening Day after an examination revealed no serious issued with his sore right knee.
🔗 Mets’ Pete Alonso wants to improve chase rate. Is there a relationship with platform years? by Will Sammon and Eno Sarris, The Athletic ($): “It looks like yes, indeed, players generally chase more in their walk years. It’s a very small effect once you weigh the differences by playing time — they chase and swing about 1.5 percentage points more than they usually do — but it’s there. And no matter where you set the playing-time threshold, about two-thirds of the players in walk years swing more and chase more than usual.”
🔗 Will the Mets sign another starting pitcher? by Anthony DiComo, MLB: “I understand that because this is a Steve Cohen-owned team, it would be foolish to count the Mets completely out of the Snell/Montgomery sweepstakes. But Cohen appears committed to this short-term austerity, making the answer to your question a likely no.”
🎧 ‘The Show’ Episode 91: Carlos Mendoza Talks 2024 Mets Expectations, Top Prospects, via Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman, NY Post: “The Mets entered spring training as an underdog. And then they lost their ace Kodai Senga for at least a month to injury. They start the 2024 season in a few weeks without playoff expectations, but don’t tell that to the Mets clubhouse or their manager.”
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I think people miss something important about Steve Cohen. Yes, he has a ton of money. What's another $60 million to him?! It's nothing.
But let me submit this idea: He's a proud & successful *businessman.* That's how he earned all that money, by running a sound financial business. And I think he's made some business determinations the past few years. For starters, that the organization must be solid with top-flight coaches, scouts, facilities, etc. It's not an overnight build. That the minor league system is the key to everything -- a consistent flow of talent, trading options, low-cost young productive players. He jump-started that process through the July trades, the so-called "dead money" contracts that netted actual young talent: Acuna, Gilbert, etc. That free agency is a powerful but extremely expensive supplement for team-building, but isn't the answer across the board (it's a poorly stocked supermarket).
I believe he was embarrassed to spend the most and win only 75 games. It's bad business. People laugh at it. And I don't think he became Steve Cohen by running a sloppy, fat, lazy business where the only possible answer for the next pitcher is free agency and excessive, risky contracts for past-peak veterans.
The issue is not at all: Whether he can afford it or not. It's whether it is good business for the organization moving forward.
The old way was: Oh, we missed out on A-Rod, let's sign Kevin Appier instead!
Lastly, I think he'll always exceed the tax limit, but I think he wants more bang for his buck, and not to exceed it for only "good" talent and 3rd-place finishes.
None of this is easy.
I am encouraged by the direction.
And Soto ain't happening.