Excuse me for using MF to promote my podcast but... on an all-new National League Town Greg Prince and I discuss our orange and blue blahs and the still-awful 10th inning rule. Join us on your favorite podcast platform. #LGM
The 10th inning rule is fine. Otherwise games will just end in ties. Teams don't have the pitching to go extras. You'd only get position players standing on the bump and the whole thing would be a joke.
Hey: The first game I went to in 1968 went 16 innings.
I concur re: the 10th inning rule. I know I'm in the minority, but I find it to be interesting. I liked it more when Diaz was striking out 50%+ of the hitters he faced but I still like it. There is plenty of strategy involved; it's just different strategy.
Oh, I know. They players association is the party that asked for the ghost runner to stay in the game. It was supposed to be eliminated in the new CBA. Was added late as per request of the players.
That would be an improvement. I miss the extra innings myself. This was supposed to be about "health and safety" in Covid. If you recall, the virus had been theorized to become more virulent as scoreboards ran out of boxes.
I too am surprised he hasn't earned enough leash with the fanbase. Two seasons where he was top 10 in the MVP voting and top 10 in WAR. Even 2021 was mostly a bad first two months, it's not like the entire season was a waste. I know big money contracts bring a lot of attention, especially when the team is playing poorly but I would have thought there would be a little more patience with him.
Going into the season, Gary was expressing extreme confidence in McNeil putting up a .300 season. He practically guaranteed it. I think "the narrative" on Jeff has sort of lagged behind the reality. At the same time, I don't think he's this bad and it would be nice if he could go on a hot streak.
Baty needs to be sent down, obviously. He has THREE doubles all season and I remember each one. Two grounders down the line and a bloop that bounced into the stands. Meaning: He has not once driven a ball into the gaps. Not once. He hit a PH homer in March and hit two more in one game in TB in early May. That's it. Six XBH. Dating to May 2, he has a 42% strikeout rate. He ranks 220th out of 220 eligible hitters in terms of Statcast's "squared-up contact" rate.
220th out of 220.
And yet now we sit Vientos because we've arbitrarily decided he can only hit LHP?
I get it: he can't field. But still.
And now we have a roster where Jeff McNeil must play everyday. And Lindor. Because of why?
Look: The Mets can't win if Lindor hits .193 and McNeil SLGs .301. Did all the people who had a bad feeling about Stearns and this team point to those guys as the problem areas? Is it reasonable to hope for better from them? Or is "hope" the only thing we've got?
Pete isn't really the problem and should be retained to a fair contract if possible. If it gets too much, they will have to let him walk. The return in any July trade must far exceed the draft pick the Mets will receive if he signs elsewhere. If somebody makes a crazy offer via trade, a blazing young arm, the Mets will have to consider it. But I don't see that happening.
Crazy that it's now May 21st and Lindor is still this bad.
The goal was always, after Alvarez got hurt, to get to July 15th with a .500 record. One good week.
Baty is completely lost - no idea what the solution is, but the end of his current runway has to be coming soon. In a lineup that is pretty punchless, he might be the last of the starting 9 that I want up in that situation.
If the "core" was producing, we could maybe carry him a little longer, but I'm not sure there's much of a point to it. I'm not sure I can remember a high-quality Mets prospect failing quite this spectacularly. Most of us had very high hopes for Brett. I had hoped Mauricio was going to be our 3B. But after missing a year, can we count on that? Or do the Mets need to go out and get a real 3B? Bregman appears to be in a weird decline. Sigh.
well I can think of a number of prospects that didn't make it; not all of them got as many AB's as Baty has though - not sure if another trip to AAA will help, but hitting with zero authority in the majors can't help either
I don’t think they’ll get much prospect value in a deadline deal for Pete. Just keep him, offer the QO and decide during the long offseason what’s best for immediate and long term future of the franchise. A lot of factors to consider. Why rush? No prospect anyone is willing to part with will be so surely more valuable than what they could draft with the Q/O compensation pick as to make the decision to jettison the final 3 months of the season worth it.
I think that's likely right. Unless someone blows the Mets away it will likely make sense to keep him knowing you'll use the QO on him. He might increase his value with a hot 2 months, but of course if that happens there is a decent chance the Mets are still in the race as a result of said hot streak.
I agree with this. We want to keep Pete and trading him away in July for a fringy package is simply not worth it. Fans are just being restless & emotional.
I see 7 full weeks of baseball before any of these decisions need to be made. We are dealing with incomplete information right now.
Simply put, sell off valuable assets at the trade deadline last year, stock prospects, save money and put out a less than competitive product on the field for the next 4-5 years while telling your fan base that you really are trying to be competitive " this year". No, this fan doesn't buy it and I am disgusted at the direction the Mets have taken in comparison to what we were promised when Steve Cohen took over the team. I believe they call it " bait and switch ". Mr Cohen's blind faith in the model Billy Eppler and David Stearns laid out for him might be a great one in Cohen's mind but it is a less than tenable one in Mets fans minds. Disinterest and disenfranchisement will grow over the next 4 or so years so you better make sure that this total rebuild works or you just might find City Field looking like Marlins North on game days.
They have a $350m payroll or something absurd this year (and still 4th if you just count the payroll on the roster) and offered $325m or thereabouts for the best pitching free agent on the market this Winter. I'm not really sure what else the fanbase wanted them to do. Offer free agents long term deals that are not worth it? It seems no one offered any of the other non-Ohtani free agents long term deals since very few (any?) of them signed long term deals. Scherzer hasn't pitched this season while Verlander has been league average in his 6 starts. It's not like we are missing out on much w/o those two.
There has been exactly zero indication that money is an issue when it comes to roster building. Cohen is carrying a ton of dead money, offered big money to Yamamoto and committed $25m to Martinez to be a DH-only towards the end of the offseason. There is also no indication that the team is going into full rebuild mode; they paid a lot of guys a good amount of money on short term deals just this past offseason. A full rebuild would not have included signing Bader, Severino and/or Manaea.
Is it frustrating that we have only been competitive for 4 months in 2021, 6 months in 2022, 3 weeks in 2023 and ?? in 2024? Sure, quite frustrating in fact. But there are considerable resources going into the organization and they are not punting this season while they build up the organization (which takes much longer in baseball than probably any other sport). They are where they are because the guys they are depending on aren't hitting; most of the guys they brought in this Winter have been about what was expected or better. Houser is really the only major disappointment in that group.
Anyway; just my opinion - it's been a mostly frustrating season thus far but the overall trajectory of the organization is in a much better place than where it was 3+ years ago.
They are not doing a total rebuild. Not going to happen. Stearns has been straightforward about the transition. He didn't expect Lindor to hit .193 and for McNeil and Baty to be absolutely horrendous. This isn't about Stearns conning you. It's about these "core" players horrendously underperforming.
To me blowing it up means giving up on this year and trading all of the expiring contracts, including Pete’s. You can’t let all these guys go for nothing in return if you want to build a sustainable winner. JD, Sev, some relievers will be in demand. Then see what you have late season with an eye toward next year-Butto, Tidwell, Gilbert, Acuna, maybe Jett if healthy. Need to audition Megill and Peterson for rotation roles for next season.
The Mets are in position to do that, come July, if that's where they are. It's almost two months away. Let's see how things play out. Being a "seller" at the deadline is not "blowing it up." It's being a seller at the deadline.
Good analysis on Lindor. I get that he’s got a difficult contract to trade, both because of the leverage he holds, and the term and value.
You also argue that he’s a very good player. Essentially, he’s worth a lot of money.
To the extent that he is a good player however, does that not mitigate the burden of contract itself? We wouldn’t be trying to trade a $231M over 7 year obligation to another team. We would be trying to trade the difference between that amount and what Lindor is actually worth, which is a lot.
As to the no trade, I wouldn’t argue for a minute that this would be the Mets and the other team acting without consent of Lindor. This would be about recognizing the situation isn’t the best fit for either the Mets or Lindor. If he loves it here so much, I guess it won’t happen. But if he agrees that a change of scenery might be the best thing for him, then that’s not the obstacle you make it out to be.
It obviously wouldn’t be a simple trade. There would be huge dollars going back. This would include taking on another bad contract or 2 in return. And there are plenty of those out there. As the Mets have a great deal of payroll flexibility coming, they can afford to make a big deal. They also have a boatload of shortstop prospects currently blocked by Lindor.
I realize it is complex. But Lindor is the core of the core. If you want to tear it down and reform a different team, that would do it.
They would. But if JD Martinez only got paid $12M after the season he had last year, I don’t think anyone wants to pay him $20M for next year. Quintana also won’t fetch a contract equal to tge QO. Severino might. I don’t think Manaea would be eligible as he is a FA only if he chooses to opt out. I could be wrong about that.
Bottom line is Pete is the only pending FA who will be given the QO, which is the choice of the team, not the FA.
Great write up. Hopeing to get rid of Lindor was always a pipe dream. Using the term "blowing it up" has to mean they are rebuilding - usually with kids. Does this whole orgaization have enough kids that could play in the majors. Even if they don't, i think fans would go along with losing as its more fun watching kids - and hoping they turn into stars.
If you think it is more fun watching "kids & hoping they turn into stars" then go Watch teams like the White Sox, Rockies or Marlins. I'm sure those fan bases are having great fun watching their kids and hoping they turn into stars while losing 100+ games, not only this year but for many years beyond.
Tanking is ugly and depressing. It has no place in NY under Cohen. It's the kind of thing that dopey fans on the internet somehow think is cool. Losing 110 games a season for 3-4 years sounds miserable.
as someone who lives in Baltimore and had a 5-8 year old son for that 2018-2021 phase, I can attest that tanking is no fun - obviously the Orioles did an incredible job drafting/developing and are in a very good spot now but basically throwing away 4 seasons was not fun and will absolutely 100% not fly in NY - there is no need to do it; you can build an organization and a ML team when you have an owner like Cohen - the Orioles did not have the payroll flexibility that the Mets have
also, the Orioles/Astros/Cubs are the best case scenario for tanking - there are plenty of teams in plenty of sports that try it and just get to slightly above average before tumbling right back down
Excuse me for using MF to promote my podcast but... on an all-new National League Town Greg Prince and I discuss our orange and blue blahs and the still-awful 10th inning rule. Join us on your favorite podcast platform. #LGM
https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/nationalleaguetown/episodes/A-Pill-of-a-Season-e2jtbmo
The 10th inning rule is fine. Otherwise games will just end in ties. Teams don't have the pitching to go extras. You'd only get position players standing on the bump and the whole thing would be a joke.
Hey: The first game I went to in 1968 went 16 innings.
I concur re: the 10th inning rule. I know I'm in the minority, but I find it to be interesting. I liked it more when Diaz was striking out 50%+ of the hitters he faced but I still like it. There is plenty of strategy involved; it's just different strategy.
We have a better idea.
Its simple to me. The ghost runner should be implemented after the 11th inning.
Teams don't want to be 12, 13 innings. Not unless you expand the roster to 15 pitchers.
Oh, I know. They players association is the party that asked for the ghost runner to stay in the game. It was supposed to be eliminated in the new CBA. Was added late as per request of the players.
That would be an improvement. I miss the extra innings myself. This was supposed to be about "health and safety" in Covid. If you recall, the virus had been theorized to become more virulent as scoreboards ran out of boxes.
For the life of me, I don't understand what people don't like about Lindor. Dude was a 6 war 30/30 player last year. And he is a leader.
The slow starts are frustrating and he needs to figure out what is up with that because he has been abysmal in April and May as far back as 2021.
I too am surprised he hasn't earned enough leash with the fanbase. Two seasons where he was top 10 in the MVP voting and top 10 in WAR. Even 2021 was mostly a bad first two months, it's not like the entire season was a waste. I know big money contracts bring a lot of attention, especially when the team is playing poorly but I would have thought there would be a little more patience with him.
No patience for Lindor, but McNeil had one good year since 2021 and fans are just getting on him now. Its mind numbing.
Going into the season, Gary was expressing extreme confidence in McNeil putting up a .300 season. He practically guaranteed it. I think "the narrative" on Jeff has sort of lagged behind the reality. At the same time, I don't think he's this bad and it would be nice if he could go on a hot streak.
Baty needs to be sent down, obviously. He has THREE doubles all season and I remember each one. Two grounders down the line and a bloop that bounced into the stands. Meaning: He has not once driven a ball into the gaps. Not once. He hit a PH homer in March and hit two more in one game in TB in early May. That's it. Six XBH. Dating to May 2, he has a 42% strikeout rate. He ranks 220th out of 220 eligible hitters in terms of Statcast's "squared-up contact" rate.
220th out of 220.
And yet now we sit Vientos because we've arbitrarily decided he can only hit LHP?
I get it: he can't field. But still.
And now we have a roster where Jeff McNeil must play everyday. And Lindor. Because of why?
Look: The Mets can't win if Lindor hits .193 and McNeil SLGs .301. Did all the people who had a bad feeling about Stearns and this team point to those guys as the problem areas? Is it reasonable to hope for better from them? Or is "hope" the only thing we've got?
Pete isn't really the problem and should be retained to a fair contract if possible. If it gets too much, they will have to let him walk. The return in any July trade must far exceed the draft pick the Mets will receive if he signs elsewhere. If somebody makes a crazy offer via trade, a blazing young arm, the Mets will have to consider it. But I don't see that happening.
Crazy that it's now May 21st and Lindor is still this bad.
The goal was always, after Alvarez got hurt, to get to July 15th with a .500 record. One good week.
Good analysis
Baty is completely lost - no idea what the solution is, but the end of his current runway has to be coming soon. In a lineup that is pretty punchless, he might be the last of the starting 9 that I want up in that situation.
If the "core" was producing, we could maybe carry him a little longer, but I'm not sure there's much of a point to it. I'm not sure I can remember a high-quality Mets prospect failing quite this spectacularly. Most of us had very high hopes for Brett. I had hoped Mauricio was going to be our 3B. But after missing a year, can we count on that? Or do the Mets need to go out and get a real 3B? Bregman appears to be in a weird decline. Sigh.
well I can think of a number of prospects that didn't make it; not all of them got as many AB's as Baty has though - not sure if another trip to AAA will help, but hitting with zero authority in the majors can't help either
I don’t think they’ll get much prospect value in a deadline deal for Pete. Just keep him, offer the QO and decide during the long offseason what’s best for immediate and long term future of the franchise. A lot of factors to consider. Why rush? No prospect anyone is willing to part with will be so surely more valuable than what they could draft with the Q/O compensation pick as to make the decision to jettison the final 3 months of the season worth it.
I think that's likely right. Unless someone blows the Mets away it will likely make sense to keep him knowing you'll use the QO on him. He might increase his value with a hot 2 months, but of course if that happens there is a decent chance the Mets are still in the race as a result of said hot streak.
I agree with this. We want to keep Pete and trading him away in July for a fringy package is simply not worth it. Fans are just being restless & emotional.
I see 7 full weeks of baseball before any of these decisions need to be made. We are dealing with incomplete information right now.
Simply put, sell off valuable assets at the trade deadline last year, stock prospects, save money and put out a less than competitive product on the field for the next 4-5 years while telling your fan base that you really are trying to be competitive " this year". No, this fan doesn't buy it and I am disgusted at the direction the Mets have taken in comparison to what we were promised when Steve Cohen took over the team. I believe they call it " bait and switch ". Mr Cohen's blind faith in the model Billy Eppler and David Stearns laid out for him might be a great one in Cohen's mind but it is a less than tenable one in Mets fans minds. Disinterest and disenfranchisement will grow over the next 4 or so years so you better make sure that this total rebuild works or you just might find City Field looking like Marlins North on game days.
They have a $350m payroll or something absurd this year (and still 4th if you just count the payroll on the roster) and offered $325m or thereabouts for the best pitching free agent on the market this Winter. I'm not really sure what else the fanbase wanted them to do. Offer free agents long term deals that are not worth it? It seems no one offered any of the other non-Ohtani free agents long term deals since very few (any?) of them signed long term deals. Scherzer hasn't pitched this season while Verlander has been league average in his 6 starts. It's not like we are missing out on much w/o those two.
There has been exactly zero indication that money is an issue when it comes to roster building. Cohen is carrying a ton of dead money, offered big money to Yamamoto and committed $25m to Martinez to be a DH-only towards the end of the offseason. There is also no indication that the team is going into full rebuild mode; they paid a lot of guys a good amount of money on short term deals just this past offseason. A full rebuild would not have included signing Bader, Severino and/or Manaea.
Is it frustrating that we have only been competitive for 4 months in 2021, 6 months in 2022, 3 weeks in 2023 and ?? in 2024? Sure, quite frustrating in fact. But there are considerable resources going into the organization and they are not punting this season while they build up the organization (which takes much longer in baseball than probably any other sport). They are where they are because the guys they are depending on aren't hitting; most of the guys they brought in this Winter have been about what was expected or better. Houser is really the only major disappointment in that group.
Anyway; just my opinion - it's been a mostly frustrating season thus far but the overall trajectory of the organization is in a much better place than where it was 3+ years ago.
Exactly right.
They are not doing a total rebuild. Not going to happen. Stearns has been straightforward about the transition. He didn't expect Lindor to hit .193 and for McNeil and Baty to be absolutely horrendous. This isn't about Stearns conning you. It's about these "core" players horrendously underperforming.
To me blowing it up means giving up on this year and trading all of the expiring contracts, including Pete’s. You can’t let all these guys go for nothing in return if you want to build a sustainable winner. JD, Sev, some relievers will be in demand. Then see what you have late season with an eye toward next year-Butto, Tidwell, Gilbert, Acuna, maybe Jett if healthy. Need to audition Megill and Peterson for rotation roles for next season.
Megill and Peterson have auditioned plenty. Time to see the performance.
The Mets are in position to do that, come July, if that's where they are. It's almost two months away. Let's see how things play out. Being a "seller" at the deadline is not "blowing it up." It's being a seller at the deadline.
We'll have to see where we are in July.
The blow up like you described it in the Blog NEEDS to happen this year!
Good analysis on Lindor. I get that he’s got a difficult contract to trade, both because of the leverage he holds, and the term and value.
You also argue that he’s a very good player. Essentially, he’s worth a lot of money.
To the extent that he is a good player however, does that not mitigate the burden of contract itself? We wouldn’t be trying to trade a $231M over 7 year obligation to another team. We would be trying to trade the difference between that amount and what Lindor is actually worth, which is a lot.
As to the no trade, I wouldn’t argue for a minute that this would be the Mets and the other team acting without consent of Lindor. This would be about recognizing the situation isn’t the best fit for either the Mets or Lindor. If he loves it here so much, I guess it won’t happen. But if he agrees that a change of scenery might be the best thing for him, then that’s not the obstacle you make it out to be.
It obviously wouldn’t be a simple trade. There would be huge dollars going back. This would include taking on another bad contract or 2 in return. And there are plenty of those out there. As the Mets have a great deal of payroll flexibility coming, they can afford to make a big deal. They also have a boatload of shortstop prospects currently blocked by Lindor.
I realize it is complex. But Lindor is the core of the core. If you want to tear it down and reform a different team, that would do it.
Joel Sherman has a paywalled trade suggestion with Alonso. My workaround didn't work. Does anyone have access?
Alonso to the Cubs should be dead, no? The Cubs have Michael Busch who is 26 and producing.
Assuming the Mets kept all of their players; would Severino, Manea, Quintana, and Martinez all be eligible for the qualifying offer?
They would. But if JD Martinez only got paid $12M after the season he had last year, I don’t think anyone wants to pay him $20M for next year. Quintana also won’t fetch a contract equal to tge QO. Severino might. I don’t think Manaea would be eligible as he is a FA only if he chooses to opt out. I could be wrong about that.
Bottom line is Pete is the only pending FA who will be given the QO, which is the choice of the team, not the FA.
Great write up. Hopeing to get rid of Lindor was always a pipe dream. Using the term "blowing it up" has to mean they are rebuilding - usually with kids. Does this whole orgaization have enough kids that could play in the majors. Even if they don't, i think fans would go along with losing as its more fun watching kids - and hoping they turn into stars.
If you think it is more fun watching "kids & hoping they turn into stars" then go Watch teams like the White Sox, Rockies or Marlins. I'm sure those fan bases are having great fun watching their kids and hoping they turn into stars while losing 100+ games, not only this year but for many years beyond.
Tanking is ugly and depressing. It has no place in NY under Cohen. It's the kind of thing that dopey fans on the internet somehow think is cool. Losing 110 games a season for 3-4 years sounds miserable.
as someone who lives in Baltimore and had a 5-8 year old son for that 2018-2021 phase, I can attest that tanking is no fun - obviously the Orioles did an incredible job drafting/developing and are in a very good spot now but basically throwing away 4 seasons was not fun and will absolutely 100% not fly in NY - there is no need to do it; you can build an organization and a ML team when you have an owner like Cohen - the Orioles did not have the payroll flexibility that the Mets have
also, the Orioles/Astros/Cubs are the best case scenario for tanking - there are plenty of teams in plenty of sports that try it and just get to slightly above average before tumbling right back down
There's no reason to go that route.