What does 'blowing it up' really mean?

Morning Dose: Tuesday, May 21

☀️ Good Morning:

If you were hoping the return to a familiar environment would put a spark in Francisco Lindor’s bat, I guess we will have to wait at least one more day. 

Playing in Cleveland for the first time since being traded after the 2020 season, Lindor went hitless at the plate, extending a season-long slump that has kept his batting average on the interstate (.193). He has three hits in his last 29 at-bats and hasn’t recorded an extra base hit in 10 games.

While Lindor made a few nice plays in the field, ranging to his right to glove a ball and make a Jeter-esque throw in the eighth to nab the runner, without his production at the top of the lineup, runs have been hard to come by.

The Mets only plated one run on Monday on a Tomás Nido home run. A game that started sloppy and saw Tylor Megill return with a promising start ended in another loss.

Optimistic fans can keep pointing to the fact the Amazins are only 2.5 games back of the final wild-card spot. It’s misleading. At 21–26, they are bunched with seven other teams in the standings, needing to jump five of them to be an actual wild-card team.

The play-in round offers a reward for mediocrity. But teams have still needed to win at least 84 games to reach the postseason over the past two seasons. Carlos Mendoza’s group is on pace for 72 wins.

Getting to 84 will be even more difficult if Kodai Senga never gets healthy. We learned yesterday he missed his last bullpen session due to tricep tightness. The Mets categorize this latest injury as a “low level” of concern. The team hopes he can resume throwing by the end of the week.

Whether it’s a minor setback or not, it’s starting to feel like we might see Aaron Rodgers play a competitive football game before we see Senga pitch for the Mets again.

Today, I will talk about what “blowing it up” really means for this roster.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

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🫣 Sloppy play

It didn’t take long for Monday’s opener against the Guardians to cause Mets fans to want to switch the channel.

First blood: After retiring the first two batters he faced, Megill gave up what seemed like a harmless single to the right side before Josh Naylor found another hole on the left side for back-to-back hits. Two outs with runners on first and second, you can live with.

• Instead, the Guardians put both in scoring position on a gaffe by Brandon Nimmo in left and an airmail throw to the cutoff man by Harrison Bader behind him.

• A prompt base hit by David Fry drove in both runs, giving Cleveland a two-run lead they would never relinquish.

Running into trouble: The Mets tried to answer right back with a J.D. Martinez double to lead off the top of the second, only to run themselves out of the threat with inexcusable baserunning by Starling Marte, who was ejected later in the game for arguing balls and strikes.

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📝 ROSTER MOVES: Yohan Ramírez crazy journey through the 2024 season continues with a trade to the Dodgers for cash considerations. The Mets also officially released Joey Wendle. As predicted, Grant Hartwig was optioned to make room for Tylor Megill, allowing Josh Walker to give them two innings of relief on Monday. 

📉 A LOSING PROPOSITION: With Wendle gone and Mark Vientos taking his place on the roster, the Mets continue to play without a legitimate back-up middle infielder. A situation that would be tenable if you were exchanging emergency defense for offensive production. That has not been the case.

• Brett Baty had another dreadful performance on Monday, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, one on three pitches with the bases loaded in the sixth. He is now batting .172 with only two home runs and 28 strikeouts over his last 30 games, a season-long hard-hit rate that ranks in the bottom 13th percentile of the league.

• Vientos continues to murder left-handed pitching. It might be time to give him the full run at third.

👍 ONE MORE GO: David Peterson will have one more rehab start ahead of his eligibility date (May 27) to return from the 60-day IL. He has been extremely impressive in his ramp-up work, showing precise command and swing-and-miss stuff, presenting the front office with a decision on whether he should be immediately added to the Active Roster.

🫴 PLAYING CATCH-UP: Drew Smith is still at least one week away from returning from the IL. He will also need one more rehab start.

🎬 GOOD START: I thought Tylor Megill looked pretty good yesterday with a fastball that reached 97 mph and flashed some decent rise. Importantly, he was able to command his secondary pitches in the zone and use his splitter as a chase pitch, earning three whiffs on four swings.

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🧨 What does ‘blowing it up’ really mean?

The Mets are five games below .500, but it feels like 15. Fans are tired of seemingly everyone over the age of 25 on the roster. After winning 101 games in 2022, New York won 75 last season and might be lucky to win that many this year. It’s David Stearns first full season as president of the organization. It’s led to a discussion on whether it’s time to “blow things up.”

🔷 A reality check

I’m not here to tell you to keep this team together because we are only 47 games into the season and there is plenty of time for them to make a run. While I think that is definitely a possibility — we’ve seen this happen too many times in the wild-card era to pretend it can’t happen — I want to focus on how the roster is currently constructed and why major change is already in the works.

Long-term contracts: The Mets currently have five “core” players signed beyond the 2025 season: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Edwin Díaz and Kodai Senga (who needs to start pitching to trigger his opt out after 2025).

• If you put the pitchers aside, that really leaves Lindor and Nimmo as your mainstays — Starling Marte is only signed for one more year.

• McNeil, who is signed through the 2026 season, would have probably already had his spot in the lineup supplanted by Ronny Mauricio if the young prospect hadn’t injured himself in the offseason.

Attrition: In other words, through pure attrition, this team is already undergoing a major turnover. 13 players on the active roster, including the injured Drew Smith and Jake Diekman (who has a vesting option for 2025), are due to become free agents after this season. That is 50% of the roster!

🔷 Why not trade Lindor?

Mets fans can talk until they are blue in the face about trading Francisco Lindor.

That is not happening.

• Lindor has seven years and over $221 million remaining on his contract when you account for his deferrals.

• Besides his $21 million signing bonus, he is paid evenly over the life of the deal (with deferrals), so there is no payroll discount for the acquiring team as there would have been had his contract been heavily front loaded. (Remember, under the new CBA, a traded player’s AAV is recalculated based on the amount owed on his contract.)

• He also has a limited no-trade clause to 15 teams, which could sap the market even more. He will gain a full no-trade after the 2025 season as a 10-and-5 player.

• We heard the story earlier in the week from Steve Gelbs about Lindor consoling Edwin Díaz after his blown save in Miami. Players look up to him. I believe Cohen keeps his finger on the pulse of the team using Lindor as a conduit.

• While a .193 average over a few months makes fans forget a lot of things, this man won a Silver Slugger Award and finished Top-10 in MVP voting last season (as in the season that ended only eight months ago).

More dead money? Steve Cohen, who is trying to free himself of dead money for the first time of his ownership this offseason, would have to eat a significant portion of Lindor’s contract to receive any kind of positive return in a trade.

In short, trading a clubhouse leader, who still provides value, at the cost of carrying a significant amount of dead money and for a return that would surely be below market value doesn’t make sense. 

🔷 What does “blowing it up” mean in the context of the 2024 Mets?

All of the talk about “blowing it up” really comes down to a decision on Pete Alonso.

Do they try to re-sign him at a cost that will probably exceed the market for comparable first basemen? Or are they ready to move on? Does that decision change if they feel less confident in signing Juan Soto? A pursuit that seems more far fetched by the day when you compare Soto’s situation in the Bronx to what’s going on in Queens.

David Stearns can make a statement that he is ready to hit the reset button on this current core of players by trading Alonso at the deadline. If they can orchestrate a deal to a club that feels confident in signing him to an extension — such as the Cubs — perhaps they can get decent value on an expiring contract.

👉 Otherwise, blowing up the 2024 Mets comes down to trading players on expiring contracts.

The most difficult decision at the deadline will be assessing whether a mediocre team that might technically still be in the race because of the ridiculous nature of the expanded wild-card system is worth keeping together for a run at the opportunity cost of stockpiling mid-to-low-level prospects for players on expiring deals. 

Stearns can continue what Billy Eppler started last summer by finding any value he can get for players due to become free agents. He has some valuable chips at his disposal in J.D. Martinez and Luis Severino. If Severino continues to pitch well, a team desperate for an added starter will give you a solid return for him.

Of course, Jose Quintana could become a decent trade chip as a veteran starter for a team in need. The Mets could also shop Adam Ottavino or Harrison Bader, among others.

Will the Mets blow it up this season? The process has already started. When you consider that question, consider Pete Alonso’s future and the number of players this roster will churn through pure attrition and rental sales at the deadline.

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🗓️ UP NEXT: A day after Francisco Lindor played his first game in Cleveland following his trade to the Mets, the player acquired alongside him, Carlos Carrasco (2–4, 5.16), will start for the Guardians against Adrian Houser (0–3, 7.44).

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◾️ The Mariners scored four runs in the ninth inning to snap the Yankees’ seven-game winning streak in a dramatic 5–4 affair in the Bronx.

◾️ Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers set a team record with a home run in his sixth consecutive game in Monday’s 5-0 win over the Rays.

◾️ Padres second baseman (and former Red Sox) Xander Bogaerts injured his left shoulder on Monday and will undergo tests to determine the severity of the injury.

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🔗 Brett Baty’s struggles continue in big spot and Mets may soon be faced with decision, by Will Sammon, The Athletic ($): “It’s unclear how long the Mets (21-26) plan to run a platoon at third base featuring two 24-year-olds — the left-handed hitting Baty and right-handed batting Vientos — but it’s not a roster construction designed for the long haul. After all, shortstop Lindor and second baseman Jeff McNeil are being asked to play every inning of every game.”

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