Aug 1, 2023·edited Aug 1, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Bellone
Many of you, especially JB, are really clued into the economics of this game. In my case, I am a woman of the 20th century: math sucks and thinking about it sucks more, LOL. I am curious about the evolution from bright-eyed baseball fan to quant analysis of payroll. Anyone care to share their story? What made you start analyzing baseball like Moneyball?
Wendy, I’m an old guy. I remember reading Bill James in the 1980s and feeling like I had my eyes opened. There were so many misconceptions that he was able to refute by his great prose and simple use of numbers. I almost immediately started ignoring pitcher wins, batting average, etc. and found I enjoyed the game much more. As for payroll, I got into it while writing for The Hardball Times in the mid 2000’s because new stats like Win Shares and WAR were such obvious tools to use to assess payroll. I did some pioneering work and also worked with others to create the $/WAR stuff you see on Fangraphs today.
Having said that, I am often put off by how people use those concepts and numbers. They’re meant to be a simple starting point, not an end analysis. I think Jeff does a better job than most of explaining and using the nums, but they are just guideposts.
And of course Baseball Prospectus was key after James. Both, btw, had great & lively writing, and humor, which made it all entertaining -- you laughed! -- as well as informative.
The BPro guys were good too, but I wasn't the biggest fan. I followed John Dewan's Scorecards in the 90's and then got into Baseball Primer and Tangotiger's work, which morphed to his own blog. Then, of course, Hardball Times.
I understand the overall concept but the actual numbers? I get bored. That's why I love Mets Fix. If there is something that is out of my league, I have so many people to ask. I also do not torture myself with baseball. I'm excited for next year already.
I don't think Canha was ever going to get us much. Jarvis seems like a fringe guy to me, the bump he got in AA from the "pre-tack" ball looks like a red flag. But he's an arm. You never know. That he's close doesn't really do anything for me. I'd rather get a more talented 20-year-old that our scouts loved. Hopefully we can do a little better with Pham. And if we move Verlander, we'll have to do a lot better.
It remains mind-blowing that Sandy traded a young Mets first rounder for the Baez rental in a year when we were a long shot to make the playoffs. We've given away a lot of young players unnecessarily. Let's see if we can get somebody else to wildly overpay.
Regarding paying down Canha’s salary, I think Cohen doesn’t care much about recovering money spent already on this year’s team. He does care about next year’s expenses.
JB you ask should the Mets have to paydown salary even on 'smaller contracts' in a sellers' market? Not normally, however, until they trade Pete or Mauricio or Alvarez they have absolutely 0 leverage in a trade so in 2023, yes they do.
Everyone knows their veteran, non-arbitration eligible players are overpaid. Point against Mets.
Everyone knows the Mets want prospects and have nothing of value coming to the MLB team within the next 2 years. Point against Mets.
Yes, they have 2 players likely to come up (now we've traded people) who are blocked at their primary and backup positions by long term contract veterans or better performing rookies (Mauricio, Ramirez) and a pitcher (Vasil) who 50/50 may end up like all the other ones we've produced since 2017 that can't cut it or we don't coach/use well once they hit the majors after doing well the first 3 months in MLB before the league catches up to him. That doesn't help their case.
Owners hate Cohen b/c he 1. is wealthier, 2., blatantly blows by the CBT and 3., his comments around Rocker were used against the league in the lawsuits leading to minor league union winning rights and increased services (additional expenditures for other clubs). Big point against the Mets when people can tell you 'no.'
The Mets also have self-inflicted wounds in how they wrote these contracts. Either the AAV is insane, or the 'option' year complicates things. The players they are trading all are having declining numbers (except Pham) or are really old, which decrease the value and return. #LOLMets is like the goonies...never say die...
I would prefer to keep JV unless we get the dodgers' kid currently in MLB or comparable target. It'd be cool if we traded him to Seattle for one of their rookies but that's not happening. Quintana moving wouldn't surprise me, but would signal 'punt on 2024' more than trading Verlander does b/c trading and saving $ on the two $43M deals is a good 'repurposing' of assets. If they don't trade Pete, that's extension $.
Super lame of us all to gush over the acquisition of Crow in the Escobar + $ trade, when the hype was all about a strong April in AA and he was so injured at that point that he still isn’t pitching here in August! He’s not on pace to add anything to the 2024 Mets. At best he’s healthy next season and is promoted to AAA at some point. Especially with the difference between the AA ball and the AAA/MLB ball, pitchers need a good while in AAA before they are ready for the majors. Vasil and now Junis are the only ones who have even tried it yet and both are going through significant growing pains. Walker, Hartwig and Nate Lavender the only relievers who look like they could contribute in 2024.
We can’t trade Verlander and also pay down his contract the way we did with Scherzer if we have any hope of putting a competitive staff out there in ‘24. Either keep him or cut him loose and free up the entire $$ so we can find some pitching to give 2024 a hope. Fan base is not ready for a season with no hope coupled with the highest payroll in the league being paid out to stars on other teams, luxury tax penalties to cheapskate owners, and all the ridicule that will deservedly befall us.
First Robertson then Scherzernow Canah. Then we hear of the possibility of Trading Alonso along with the distinct possibility of Pham being gone by 6pm EDT today. Is it any coincidence that Scherzer, possibility Verlander and Alonso are suddenly on the trading block. Guess it doesn't pay to speak out against management determined to gut this team of potential outspoken leaders. Should Verlander be traded then you would have to replace not one but 2 and maybe 3 if Q is also traded today. So, you need a new set up person in the bullpen to slot in as the 8th inning guy ahead of Diaz, rebuild the middle bullpen relief then replace guys like Canah and Pfam and you think 2024 & 2025 are going to be anything but rebuilding years? Please! Should anyone else in the starting 9 get traded, say like Alonso, despite whatever prospects the Mets get back 2024 &2025 won't be anything but rebuilding years. Disheartening to say the least. Lead on Mr Cohen & Mr Eppler you both are doing a fine job of disenfranchising your fan base!
I think they are pivoting from a policy that didn't work. $86 million a season for two old guys. Maybe distribute that money differently. Pham, Canha, easily replaced in offseason (if that's what we even want).
Look, it sucks. It does. But standing pat at the deadline would have been so much worse.
I never said stand pat at the deadline. In fact, I was one who was calling to sell. However, the way it has happened so far is disconcerting to say the least and as I said above if they do trade Verlander then that is 2 starters plus the rebuild of the bullpen that would need to be addressed next year. Even as it is now, it is going to be hard enough to replace all the parts that need replacing and to be a competitive team in 2024. I keep saying it's a rebuild coming, not a repurpose andnothing I see happfening today shakes my belief that is what will end up happening
Many of you, especially JB, are really clued into the economics of this game. In my case, I am a woman of the 20th century: math sucks and thinking about it sucks more, LOL. I am curious about the evolution from bright-eyed baseball fan to quant analysis of payroll. Anyone care to share their story? What made you start analyzing baseball like Moneyball?
Wendy, I’m an old guy. I remember reading Bill James in the 1980s and feeling like I had my eyes opened. There were so many misconceptions that he was able to refute by his great prose and simple use of numbers. I almost immediately started ignoring pitcher wins, batting average, etc. and found I enjoyed the game much more. As for payroll, I got into it while writing for The Hardball Times in the mid 2000’s because new stats like Win Shares and WAR were such obvious tools to use to assess payroll. I did some pioneering work and also worked with others to create the $/WAR stuff you see on Fangraphs today.
Having said that, I am often put off by how people use those concepts and numbers. They’re meant to be a simple starting point, not an end analysis. I think Jeff does a better job than most of explaining and using the nums, but they are just guideposts.
Great story, Dave. Are you telling me to read? Noooo...
And of course Baseball Prospectus was key after James. Both, btw, had great & lively writing, and humor, which made it all entertaining -- you laughed! -- as well as informative.
The BPro guys were good too, but I wasn't the biggest fan. I followed John Dewan's Scorecards in the 90's and then got into Baseball Primer and Tangotiger's work, which morphed to his own blog. Then, of course, Hardball Times.
If you don't understand the money, you can't understand what the teams (owners, GM, etc) are doing. This far pre-dates Moneyball.
I understand the overall concept but the actual numbers? I get bored. That's why I love Mets Fix. If there is something that is out of my league, I have so many people to ask. I also do not torture myself with baseball. I'm excited for next year already.
I think the Mets got some great prospects. Only the future can tell..
Considering Scherzer's comments to Rosenthal anyone still think it's not a rebuild?
Rebuild, pivot, repurposing . . .
This is a situation where we need to see the totality of moves, including the winter, to assess.
The Mets have a deal in place to send Justin Verlander back to the Astros on Tuesday, The Post’s Jon Heyman confirmed.
So, is it good that Verlander has been traded?
That's a good question.
I could go either way. But I do respect the pivot.
We'll see what they do.
At the same time, we are nowhere near close to the Braves.
I don't see why the Mets can't shoot for a 90-win season and a WC.
L
lol LOL LOL
I don't think Canha was ever going to get us much. Jarvis seems like a fringe guy to me, the bump he got in AA from the "pre-tack" ball looks like a red flag. But he's an arm. You never know. That he's close doesn't really do anything for me. I'd rather get a more talented 20-year-old that our scouts loved. Hopefully we can do a little better with Pham. And if we move Verlander, we'll have to do a lot better.
It remains mind-blowing that Sandy traded a young Mets first rounder for the Baez rental in a year when we were a long shot to make the playoffs. We've given away a lot of young players unnecessarily. Let's see if we can get somebody else to wildly overpay.
Regarding paying down Canha’s salary, I think Cohen doesn’t care much about recovering money spent already on this year’s team. He does care about next year’s expenses.
I think it's simple: No money, pick a guy from column B. Give us $3 million, pick a guy from column A.
JB you ask should the Mets have to paydown salary even on 'smaller contracts' in a sellers' market? Not normally, however, until they trade Pete or Mauricio or Alvarez they have absolutely 0 leverage in a trade so in 2023, yes they do.
Everyone knows their veteran, non-arbitration eligible players are overpaid. Point against Mets.
Everyone knows the Mets want prospects and have nothing of value coming to the MLB team within the next 2 years. Point against Mets.
Yes, they have 2 players likely to come up (now we've traded people) who are blocked at their primary and backup positions by long term contract veterans or better performing rookies (Mauricio, Ramirez) and a pitcher (Vasil) who 50/50 may end up like all the other ones we've produced since 2017 that can't cut it or we don't coach/use well once they hit the majors after doing well the first 3 months in MLB before the league catches up to him. That doesn't help their case.
Owners hate Cohen b/c he 1. is wealthier, 2., blatantly blows by the CBT and 3., his comments around Rocker were used against the league in the lawsuits leading to minor league union winning rights and increased services (additional expenditures for other clubs). Big point against the Mets when people can tell you 'no.'
The Mets also have self-inflicted wounds in how they wrote these contracts. Either the AAV is insane, or the 'option' year complicates things. The players they are trading all are having declining numbers (except Pham) or are really old, which decrease the value and return. #LOLMets is like the goonies...never say die...
I would prefer to keep JV unless we get the dodgers' kid currently in MLB or comparable target. It'd be cool if we traded him to Seattle for one of their rookies but that's not happening. Quintana moving wouldn't surprise me, but would signal 'punt on 2024' more than trading Verlander does b/c trading and saving $ on the two $43M deals is a good 'repurposing' of assets. If they don't trade Pete, that's extension $.
You mentioned Cameron Crow (EE trade). He was on the IL at the time of the trade and it appears that he still is. True?
Believe so. Hasn’t pitched since April, but has logged a decent amount of Double-A innings already
Super lame of us all to gush over the acquisition of Crow in the Escobar + $ trade, when the hype was all about a strong April in AA and he was so injured at that point that he still isn’t pitching here in August! He’s not on pace to add anything to the 2024 Mets. At best he’s healthy next season and is promoted to AAA at some point. Especially with the difference between the AA ball and the AAA/MLB ball, pitchers need a good while in AAA before they are ready for the majors. Vasil and now Junis are the only ones who have even tried it yet and both are going through significant growing pains. Walker, Hartwig and Nate Lavender the only relievers who look like they could contribute in 2024.
We can’t trade Verlander and also pay down his contract the way we did with Scherzer if we have any hope of putting a competitive staff out there in ‘24. Either keep him or cut him loose and free up the entire $$ so we can find some pitching to give 2024 a hope. Fan base is not ready for a season with no hope coupled with the highest payroll in the league being paid out to stars on other teams, luxury tax penalties to cheapskate owners, and all the ridicule that will deservedly befall us.
And Crow is another who needs to be on the 40 man to avoid the Rule 5.
First Robertson then Scherzernow Canah. Then we hear of the possibility of Trading Alonso along with the distinct possibility of Pham being gone by 6pm EDT today. Is it any coincidence that Scherzer, possibility Verlander and Alonso are suddenly on the trading block. Guess it doesn't pay to speak out against management determined to gut this team of potential outspoken leaders. Should Verlander be traded then you would have to replace not one but 2 and maybe 3 if Q is also traded today. So, you need a new set up person in the bullpen to slot in as the 8th inning guy ahead of Diaz, rebuild the middle bullpen relief then replace guys like Canah and Pfam and you think 2024 & 2025 are going to be anything but rebuilding years? Please! Should anyone else in the starting 9 get traded, say like Alonso, despite whatever prospects the Mets get back 2024 &2025 won't be anything but rebuilding years. Disheartening to say the least. Lead on Mr Cohen & Mr Eppler you both are doing a fine job of disenfranchising your fan base!
You are pretty negative about all this.
I think they are pivoting from a policy that didn't work. $86 million a season for two old guys. Maybe distribute that money differently. Pham, Canha, easily replaced in offseason (if that's what we even want).
Look, it sucks. It does. But standing pat at the deadline would have been so much worse.
I never said stand pat at the deadline. In fact, I was one who was calling to sell. However, the way it has happened so far is disconcerting to say the least and as I said above if they do trade Verlander then that is 2 starters plus the rebuild of the bullpen that would need to be addressed next year. Even as it is now, it is going to be hard enough to replace all the parts that need replacing and to be a competitive team in 2024. I keep saying it's a rebuild coming, not a repurpose andnothing I see happfening today shakes my belief that is what will end up happening