Trade Deadline Day
Morning Dose: Tuesday, August 1
☕️ Good Morning: The trade deadline is upon us. Mark Canha has already found a new home. Meanwhile, the Mets kick off a three-game set in Kansas City. Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
Today is the day. We will find out exactly how far the Mets will go in selling off assets for future pieces. It could be relatively quiet or jaw-droppingly busy.
The Athletic reports even Pete Alonso has been made available over the past week. The price would obviously be high. I find it hard to believe they would trade him. But it tells you something about the direction of the club right now.
As for Justin Verlander, the Astros remain a possible landing spot, as do the Dodgers, but his $35 million vesting option in 2025 is a sticking point in negotiations. For the Mets to trade yet another top-of-the-rotation piece, they want a premium return. The LA Times is reporting New York has their eyes on young Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan. The 23-year-old started his career throwing five shutout innings. He is 3–1 with a 5.77 ERA over his first seven major-league starts after jumping directly from Double-A to the majors.
Houston appears to be the front-runner at this point, with owner Jim Crane directly involved in negotiations with fellow owner Steve Cohen and the respective general managers, per Jim Bowden.
Those are the biggest pieces. Tommy Pham will be dealt by 6:00 pm EST. The question is where? The Dodgers, Twins and Rangers have been linked to him in recent days. Brooks Raley is another player who could find a new home, with the Cubs a possibility, per The Athletic; the same report notes the Brewers could swoop in and trade for another Met.
The Mets traded Mark Canha to the Brewers for starting pitcher prospect Justin Jarvis. It’s pretty obvious why they would make this trade. The Amazins are relatively thin on major-league ready arms in their system, Jarvis was recently promoted to Triple-A after a breakout campaign in Double-A. While he has had a rocky start at the next level, he should be ready to contribute in the bigs by next season.
A depth starter might not sound exciting, but we have seen how depth can make a difference when comparing this year’s team to the 101-win squad from last season. Had the Mets received anything from David Peterson and/or Tylor Megill in the early going, they might not be selling right now. They went 10–16 in games those two started this year.
Jarvis joins Mike Vasil, along with the likes of Blade Tidwell, Dominic Hamel and Coleman Crow as pitchers ready to take the next step (with Jarvis and Vasil the closest) and whom slot in as 40-to-45 grade pitching prospects. Jarvis is Rule 5 eligible so he is essentially guaranteed a 40-man roster spot next season (otherwise, why would you trade for him?)
To that point, Milwaukee was clearly ready to move on from Jarvis for the right player, which makes you wonder if they would have protected him in the Rule 5 draft. Perhaps the Mets could have snagged him then. The problem with that is they would have had to keep him on the active roster for the entire season, which wouldn’t have made sense for a depth starter. By trading for him now, they just need to add him to the 40-man roster and he can then shuttle between the minors and majors.
🔹 Tell me more about Jarvis
The Mets are buying high on Jarvis. Based on his performance this year, he has jumped up the Brewers’ prospect list to land 12th in Baseball America’s mid-season rankings (and was about to be in the 16-20 range by MLB Pipeline).
The 23-year-old right-hander was recently promoted to Triple-A after pitching to a 3.33 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate in 14 Double-A starts. Baseball America notes, “the caveat to Jarvis’ Double-A performance is the pre-tacked baseball the Southern League experimented with in the first half. The ball enabled pitchers to generate more spin and enhanced command.” Perhaps not coincidentally, he has had a tough time at the next level, surrendering 14 runs in his first three starts.
Jarvis has always had good stuff. This is the first year it has really come together for him. He throws a fastball/slider combination and recently added a splitter to his repertoire.
🔹 Why did the Mets add cash in the deal?
I am a bit confused why the Mets would be paying down Canha’s salary to the league minimum. As we saw in the Scherzer trade, the purpose of including cash in a trade is to bolster the return. It’s hard to call a fringe prospect a “bolstered” return. Even if Jarvis has jumped 15 spots on the Brewers’ prospect list (he entered the season unranked among 39 prospects by FanGraphs and slotted 30th by MLB Pipeline), that’s still a player with a high bust rate and minimal prospect valuation.
But when you consider Milwaukee will be responsible for his club option in 2024 (meaning they are on the hook for at least his $2 million buyout), the money becomes more neutral. Accounting for that, Canha carries a surplus value of ~$2 million, assuming he meets his rest-of-season projection of 0.4 WAR playing outfield and DH for the Brewers. If you believe in Jarvis’ progression this year, you could argue he is worth at least that much as a 40+ FV prospect (versus a 35ish-FV prospect heading into the season).
That said, we can’t completely overlook the value of Canha’s option in 2024. If he pops over the final two months of the season, his $11.5 million price tag might look more reasonable for his expected production. Even as a fourth outfielder, Milwaukee could theoretically later use his expiring contract to net them something back next season (similar to what the Mets are trying to do with Pham).
Some will characterize this trade as the Mets “buying a top-level prospect.” It’s the popular narrative under Steve Cohen. In a sense, I suppose it is true. By paying a small-market team $3 million, Eppler can ask for a pitching prospect rising up their system. But this could have been a baseball trade. The Mets are getting a prospect because they are trading a decent major-league player. There is a lot of risk in evaluating pitching prospects, the difference between a 35-FV player and a 40-FV player is small, and based on the eye of the scouting beholder.
In a sellers market, should you have to add cash to trade a veteran player projected to be worth almost exactly what he is due to be paid (with regular reps in Milwaukee, FanGraphs projects Canha to be worth close to 1/2 of a win; he is owed ~$5.5 million for the rest of this season and including his 2024 buyout)? Especially for a starter that has been slow to develop and some see better suited for the bullpen?
I’m quibbling over $3 million. Who cares when Steve Cohen is your owner, right? Well, I do. I still think it’s important to demand market value for the players you trade. Putting the money aside, exchanging Canha for pitching depth is a worthwhile move. This is by no means a bad trade. I am just picking on the details and how some are characterizing the deal.
✈️ Starling Marte traveled with the Mets to Kansas City. He appears close to returning to the lineup. The Mets face a roster crunch with Canha traded and Pham likely gone by the end of the day.
🏆 Pete Alonso was name the NL Player of the Week. He hit .304/.3790/.826 with an MLB-best 12 RBIs over the past six games.
🚜 Luisangel Acuña will make his Mets system debut with Binghamton on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Marco Vargas (3-for-5) and Ronald Hernandez (1-for-1, 3 BBs), both acquired in the David Robertson trade, had impressive debuts in the Florida Coast League.
🗓️ UP NEXT: We will see who is left on the roster by the time the Mets take the field in Kansas City tonight. As long as he doesn’t get traded, José Quintana (0–2, 3.27 ERA) will be there against Zack Greinke (1–11, 5.49). Yes, you read that correctly. Greinke has 11 losses. He is 0–5 with a 7.20 ERA in his last five starts.
◾️ Old friend Noah Syndergaard allowed only one run on two hits (zero strikeouts) over 5.1 innings in his Guardians debut.
◾️ The Mariners traded closer (and ex-Met) Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks for rookie outfielder Dominic Canzone, utilityman Josh Rojas and Double-A infielder Ryan Bliss.
◾️ Seattle didn’t stop there, sending outfielder AJ Pollock and utilityman Mark Mathias to the GIants for a player to be named later.
◾️ The Cubs reacquired third baseman Jeimer Candelario from the Nationals for prospects Kevin Made and DJ Herz.
◾️ The Rays added right-hander Aaron Civale from the Guardians for first base prospect Kyle Manzardo.
◾️ The Athletics traded reliever Sam Moll to the Reds and infielder Jace Peterson to the Diamondbacks.
🔗 Mets’ likely 2024 approach comes with 2025 escape plan, by Joel Sherman, NY Post: “Signing Scherzer/Verlander was to try to win short term. Trading Scherzer and perhaps Verlander is an attempt to erect an elite farm system long term. They are both forms of free agency for Cohen, with different motivations.”
🔗 Mark Canha, the Newest Brewer, by Ben Clemens, FanGraphs: “Let’s put it this way: It’s probably easier for the Brewers to draft and develop a pile of Jarvises than it is to find consistent, Canha-level offense. If rentals like him – roughly average, cheap (post-Cohen), reliable, versatile – are on offer at this rate, why in the world would you go sign a Josh Bell or a Brandon Belt in free agency?”
🔗 Steve Cohen learning hard reality of Mets ownership after early brashness, by Mike Vaccaro, NY Post: “What Cohen has discovered in Year 3 as Mets owner is that buying a baseball team is not unlike buying a new car: You will never be happier than the moment you drive your new wheels out of the showroom and off the lot. On Day 1 with your new ride, you think about all the adventures you’ll enjoy behind the wheel, and it never occurs to you that the engine will seize or the tires will blow or some dope with his nose buried in his iPhone is going to ram into your door.”
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Many of you, especially JB, are really clued into the economics of this game. In my case, I am a woman of the 20th century: math sucks and thinking about it sucks more, LOL. I am curious about the evolution from bright-eyed baseball fan to quant analysis of payroll. Anyone care to share their story? What made you start analyzing baseball like Moneyball?
I think the Mets got some great prospects. Only the future can tell..