I am surprised you are so hot for Castillo. I think a team can have too many starters -- and the needs in the pen and an outfield or 3B/DH bat are pretty glaring. DeGrom, Scherzer, Bassit, Walker, Carrasco, Peterson. I've long admired Castillo (though the shoulder concerns are significant). I don't see this at all.
To me, watching the Braves roll and the Phillies hang so tough, one thing becomes perfectly clear. And it's the same thing we knew in the winter. For this Mets team to do anything in the postseason, we are going to need Jake & Max. Those are the guys who will lift the team up to the next level. I build around them. The pen needs significant help. And we could use Don Clendenon.
I do think the lack of HR power is something of a problem.
And yes, I see the Mets current record and admire everything they've achieved so far. The stats are impressive. But we're also seeing a bit of unraveling. If Carrasco is significantly hurt, that changes things somewhat.
I would say I'm lukewarm on Castillo. I just wanted to present both sides of the argument: why they should trade for him and why they shouldn't. In the end, I rather they target a pitcher who they can trade less prospect capital for. And Castillo is going to demand a lot considering his contract and cost control through next season.
Assuming health -- and that's big, obviously -- who do you pull out of the rotation to fit Castillo? You give up a lot to get Castillo so we can sideline Carrasco? And Peterson? Jake is back in, say, 3 weeks. If he's right, we're good. If he's not right, we're not good. Max is going to start games for us very soon. Team has other needs, IMO. Smith, JD, Escobar all underperforming. And as much as I like Jankowski, this is not a guy we want to see in the starting lineup too often. We can upgrade there. Josh Bell is also an interesting name. May and Holderman coming back, joining Smith, but pen still lacks lockdown 8th inning guy. And our lefties are mediocre.
Bell is very intriguing. No idea what his market would be. Maybe a B prospect + Dom. He's having a pretty big year so his price might be higher but he's also limited to 1b/DH which lessens the value. Making him our most of the time DH would dramatically improve that spot in the lineup compared to what we have gotten thus far (aside from when guys like Alonso play there). It would also let Pete DH on occasion since Bell can play first.
As an aside, if anyone needed to see how different 2019 v 2022 is in terms of offense, Bell's stat line would do that. His .936 OPS in 2019 was worth 142 OPS+ while his .852 in 2022 is worth 145 OPS+. I know OPS+ takes into consideration ballpark effects but both parks have a 100 (average) for park factor.
Bell would be a perfect fit for this team. He’s equally solid from right and left. It would solve the DH problem and provide depth at first do we could get rid of Dom and JD. He’s a great fit.
My friend has a wilder, more inventive idea, based on the thesis that Cohen has money and that the Reds are all about saving money. Trade for Castillo & Votto. And by taking on all that payroll, the Mets don't have to surrender huge prospects. It's kind of insane at first blush, but when you consider it -- and the savings by keeping Castillo in 2023 -- it's an interesting concept.
I like it. Could also try that with Bell and Patrick Corbin. Maybe even catch lightning in a bottle with Corbin, as he would be reunited with Scherzer and part of a veteran staff.
Corbin is an interesting idea. However, I looked up his contract. He's owed $24M in 2023 and a balloon payment of $35M in 2024. Doesn't make it impossible.
I’m not in favor of mortgaging the farm. We’ve traded away nearly all of our top draft choices of the past few years, and that’s no way to build a consistent winner. I do think we’ll need to acquire a lefty reliever-hopefully at modest cost.
Prospects are a renewable asset. But trading them is a crucial aspect of managing that assett. The Dodgers have traded tons of prospects in recent years. They keep making more.
I'd have to do research that I'm not particularly interested in doing, but my recollection is that they started to get more aggressive trading prospects once they had a deep prospect pool from which to trade. That is indeed a very good idea. I don't think the Mets have a very deep pool; although they do have some very intriguing guys in the top 6-7 of their pool.
I think that’s the point I’m trying to make. They need to develop more and better prospects. That’s how you develop the system. But holding on to the current prospects in hopes that each of these individuals is worth more to us at some vague point in the future than whatever we could trade them for now to help the current major league roster is not the same thing. It’s not that we were in bad shape last July because Anthony Kay, Simeon Woods Richardson, Justin Dunn and Jared Kelenic weren’t on our 40 man roster and ready to fill in when DeGrom and Walker and Carrasco and Conforto went down to injuries. They wouldn’t have helped. They’ve not turned out to be credible major leaguers. It’s that they weren’t available as tantalizing potential players to trade for players that could get to the promised land. The Dodgers went out and got Scherzer and Turner. The Red Sox got Schwarber. The Phillies got kyle Gibson. The Giants got Bryant. The Braves got all those players. All purchased with prospect capital. And no one complains that the price was too great. We shouldn’t either. We have the ability and will to have the highest payroll year after year. Keep drafting and developing prospects, but don’t horde them or you run the risk of watching them lose all value. Sell high. And if Brett Baty doesn’t end up as our third baseman in 2024, then just go sign Austin Riley to help win out third straight World Series. If Calvin Ziegler or Matt Allen isn’t our number one starter in 2025, who cares, if Shohei Ohtani is coming off a Cy Young Award and Silver Slugger for our World Champions.
To be clear I wouldn’t be against trading some of these guys (save Alvarez whom I would not deal unless it’s for a clear superstar with term). It would just need to be for a very good fit that would make a real impact.
Agreed. I wouldn’t trade Alvarez because by all reports he’s a likely superstar. It’d be like trading strawberry as a minor leaguer. Can’t do it. But anyone else is less likely to be a superstar than someone who is already a solid major leaguer. If you can bring in someone who can help out us over the top this year I think you got to do it.
Need to tade whatever player (and there isnt much talent) in the minors leagues to fortify the Big League team. Either Cohen is all in to win a WS this year or he isnt. I'll take a championship any day of the week by getting rid of minor leaguers that may never even work out.
I think when an owner spends as much as Cohen spent this year, he's proven himself to be all-in. At a certain point, need management to push the right buttons and for the players to perform. Make a series of poor value deals is not a way to prove anything other than your short-sightedness. That said, I do think trading a Mauricio and/or Vientos makes sense for the right deal. Badly need a reliever who can go head-to-head against Acuna, Riley, Albies & company in the 8th inning of a one run game.
Trading prospects is not automatically a poor value deal. Like anything, it depends. If they had wanted to keep Baez, they could have done so. They chose not too. Money allows this. Crow Armstrong is looking good in the minors but he’s a long way off from the majors and no guarantee what kind of player he will be. Other recent trades include Kelenic and Dunn for Diaz and Cano. Who knows how that one works out in the end. At this moment, I’m surprised to say I’m happy we have Diaz and not Kelenic. In 2019 we traded Woods Richardson and Kay for Stroman. Stroman was good. Dunn and Kay are going nowhere. That’s 4 top prospects who were traded in recent years that at this point look like they’ll not be major leaguers of note. The criticism could be not getting more for them. The criticism could be not drafting and developing better prospects to begin with. But had they not traded them at all we’d be in worse shape than we are, because they are fairly worthless in the present time. Most prospects do not turn into high end major leaguers. But all can be turned into major league talent. Knowing when to trade them is the key. Just holding all of them probably leads to a worse outcome then trading every one of them. That’s an Analytics argument for trading every prospect.
I don't believe a SP is the right move unless Max has an issue coming back from his oblique. I am not banking on Jake during the season - I don't want him in the regular season, I want him October. Starting or out of the bullpen like Price and Kershaw gets a ring rather than some game in August against the Pirates or Fish.
Cookie, Walker and Bassitt are doing great and will only get better with McCann behind the plate. Peterson and Williams will, too. The SP available now were not traded in offseason on purpose b/c they have years of control and are automatically getting a higher return at the deadline. The cost for any of the starters right now and every second to 4PM 8/2/22 is too damn high! If we're going with a starting pitcher that's good stats wise and not getting press try the A's Paul Blackburn.
From Fangraphs:
14S, 6-3, k/9 6.5, bb/9 2.2, HR/0 0.6, BABIP .283, ERA 2.97, XERA 3.80, FIP 3.41, XFIP 3.71, WAR 1.3
BWAR is 2.2
He would cost a lot b/c he's going into arbitration starting this year, but trading Dom & or JD and MAURICIO (my biased exhibit A for Steve's point that Mets Minor leaguers shouldn't be hoarded when the value they can return on farm or MLB level is big plus they're blocked in system...) would get us a MLB player with options who's controllable and can join Matt Allen as 'next tier' of starters after Max/Walker/Jake/Cookie/Bassitt age out or become FAs and our post Jake rotation and depth starting 2024 is:
Peterson+MeGill+Blackburn+Allen+Ziegler+this year's draft pick if it's one of the SEC SPs.
Go for a reliever. Get the guy..take a low risk move by getting Steckenreider from the Mariners (not on 40 man) and try a new locale and fixing him with our up and coming pitching lab and analytics teams. The bullpen is where we need the most help. We don't need bench bats. We just need Buck to set and play the same lineup (barring injury) for a full homestand or road trip and see if it gels. That might be a factor in why we can't win more than 3 or 4 in a row and have only swept a team 1x. That is fine for 162 game season, does not bode well for playoff series.
Lee, I don’t think JD or Smith have the value to bring much return anymore. And I’ve heard more bad reports about realistic projections of Mauricio than good reports. So I don’t think that’s enough of a package to get Blackburn from the As. Maybe Matt Allen could do it. A projected front of the rotation starter for a guy who’s blossoming now as an effective starter and is a few years ahead. The As might do that figuring it pushes the bill back by 4 years or so and maybe they’ll have a new stadium and a chance to compete by then.
But it’s not realistic to project our future starting rotation. I say Let’s get through this season. We’ll have the resources to put together a fine rotation in 2024.
Just throwing a name out there for the silly thought experiments with Blackburn. I don't think any of them are getting moved and the Mets are going to have a quiet deadline unless Scherzer has a major setback. At that point anyone can and should be traded to get the team to the post season when Jake and/or Scherzer are back at that point.
If he's acquired - or any starter with controllable years, then one of the big 4 are gone at the deadline and that's a mistake if we are going to be Dodgers East. I agree Mauricio has limited value, but MLB evaluators see him as a huge benefit. Allen is on IL recovering from TJ and if he was going to get moved they'd have moved him for Lindor and kept Wolfe and/or Gimenez. The Mets still have 2 reps in the industry: 1 that we screw up player development and people are willing to take on our players to 'maximize potential' - and have success with it, and 2, our GMs (mostly Alderson, et. al) are terrible negotiators or managers of the Trade Deadline and can get fleeced easily. Both are still true until Eppler proves otherwise.
We should use our reputation to our advantage. Take our “screwed up prospect” and “fleece” us in the deal. Except this time it really is an unfixable prospect.
Dont totally disagree - but for me and waiting 36 years and counting - there is NO ONE in that crappy farm system that cant be traded. 1) a starting pitcher, 2) a 3B-man. Wating for somene like Alverez who may not even be good enough for MLB is silly - get rid of him to some team that thinks small and get some payers in here to win a Championship.
Benintendi would be perfect. A solid outfielder and LH bat. His bat replaces the failed Cano, Dom, and Escobar (from the Left side) attempts made thus far. Play Luis every day, and only play Escobar against LH pitching whether as DH or 3B. Say goodbye to JD and Dom. Maybe even pick up Zack Greinke in the deal. Now what would it take to make that happen?
I am surprised you are so hot for Castillo. I think a team can have too many starters -- and the needs in the pen and an outfield or 3B/DH bat are pretty glaring. DeGrom, Scherzer, Bassit, Walker, Carrasco, Peterson. I've long admired Castillo (though the shoulder concerns are significant). I don't see this at all.
To me, watching the Braves roll and the Phillies hang so tough, one thing becomes perfectly clear. And it's the same thing we knew in the winter. For this Mets team to do anything in the postseason, we are going to need Jake & Max. Those are the guys who will lift the team up to the next level. I build around them. The pen needs significant help. And we could use Don Clendenon.
I do think the lack of HR power is something of a problem.
And yes, I see the Mets current record and admire everything they've achieved so far. The stats are impressive. But we're also seeing a bit of unraveling. If Carrasco is significantly hurt, that changes things somewhat.
I would say I'm lukewarm on Castillo. I just wanted to present both sides of the argument: why they should trade for him and why they shouldn't. In the end, I rather they target a pitcher who they can trade less prospect capital for. And Castillo is going to demand a lot considering his contract and cost control through next season.
Assuming health -- and that's big, obviously -- who do you pull out of the rotation to fit Castillo? You give up a lot to get Castillo so we can sideline Carrasco? And Peterson? Jake is back in, say, 3 weeks. If he's right, we're good. If he's not right, we're not good. Max is going to start games for us very soon. Team has other needs, IMO. Smith, JD, Escobar all underperforming. And as much as I like Jankowski, this is not a guy we want to see in the starting lineup too often. We can upgrade there. Josh Bell is also an interesting name. May and Holderman coming back, joining Smith, but pen still lacks lockdown 8th inning guy. And our lefties are mediocre.
Bell is very intriguing. No idea what his market would be. Maybe a B prospect + Dom. He's having a pretty big year so his price might be higher but he's also limited to 1b/DH which lessens the value. Making him our most of the time DH would dramatically improve that spot in the lineup compared to what we have gotten thus far (aside from when guys like Alonso play there). It would also let Pete DH on occasion since Bell can play first.
As an aside, if anyone needed to see how different 2019 v 2022 is in terms of offense, Bell's stat line would do that. His .936 OPS in 2019 was worth 142 OPS+ while his .852 in 2022 is worth 145 OPS+. I know OPS+ takes into consideration ballpark effects but both parks have a 100 (average) for park factor.
Bell would be a perfect fit for this team. He’s equally solid from right and left. It would solve the DH problem and provide depth at first do we could get rid of Dom and JD. He’s a great fit.
My friend has a wilder, more inventive idea, based on the thesis that Cohen has money and that the Reds are all about saving money. Trade for Castillo & Votto. And by taking on all that payroll, the Mets don't have to surrender huge prospects. It's kind of insane at first blush, but when you consider it -- and the savings by keeping Castillo in 2023 -- it's an interesting concept.
I like it. Could also try that with Bell and Patrick Corbin. Maybe even catch lightning in a bottle with Corbin, as he would be reunited with Scherzer and part of a veteran staff.
Corbin is an interesting idea. However, I looked up his contract. He's owed $24M in 2023 and a balloon payment of $35M in 2024. Doesn't make it impossible.
I’m not in favor of mortgaging the farm. We’ve traded away nearly all of our top draft choices of the past few years, and that’s no way to build a consistent winner. I do think we’ll need to acquire a lefty reliever-hopefully at modest cost.
Prospects are a renewable asset. But trading them is a crucial aspect of managing that assett. The Dodgers have traded tons of prospects in recent years. They keep making more.
I'd have to do research that I'm not particularly interested in doing, but my recollection is that they started to get more aggressive trading prospects once they had a deep prospect pool from which to trade. That is indeed a very good idea. I don't think the Mets have a very deep pool; although they do have some very intriguing guys in the top 6-7 of their pool.
I think that’s the point I’m trying to make. They need to develop more and better prospects. That’s how you develop the system. But holding on to the current prospects in hopes that each of these individuals is worth more to us at some vague point in the future than whatever we could trade them for now to help the current major league roster is not the same thing. It’s not that we were in bad shape last July because Anthony Kay, Simeon Woods Richardson, Justin Dunn and Jared Kelenic weren’t on our 40 man roster and ready to fill in when DeGrom and Walker and Carrasco and Conforto went down to injuries. They wouldn’t have helped. They’ve not turned out to be credible major leaguers. It’s that they weren’t available as tantalizing potential players to trade for players that could get to the promised land. The Dodgers went out and got Scherzer and Turner. The Red Sox got Schwarber. The Phillies got kyle Gibson. The Giants got Bryant. The Braves got all those players. All purchased with prospect capital. And no one complains that the price was too great. We shouldn’t either. We have the ability and will to have the highest payroll year after year. Keep drafting and developing prospects, but don’t horde them or you run the risk of watching them lose all value. Sell high. And if Brett Baty doesn’t end up as our third baseman in 2024, then just go sign Austin Riley to help win out third straight World Series. If Calvin Ziegler or Matt Allen isn’t our number one starter in 2025, who cares, if Shohei Ohtani is coming off a Cy Young Award and Silver Slugger for our World Champions.
To be clear I wouldn’t be against trading some of these guys (save Alvarez whom I would not deal unless it’s for a clear superstar with term). It would just need to be for a very good fit that would make a real impact.
Agreed. I wouldn’t trade Alvarez because by all reports he’s a likely superstar. It’d be like trading strawberry as a minor leaguer. Can’t do it. But anyone else is less likely to be a superstar than someone who is already a solid major leaguer. If you can bring in someone who can help out us over the top this year I think you got to do it.
Need to tade whatever player (and there isnt much talent) in the minors leagues to fortify the Big League team. Either Cohen is all in to win a WS this year or he isnt. I'll take a championship any day of the week by getting rid of minor leaguers that may never even work out.
All in!!!!
I think when an owner spends as much as Cohen spent this year, he's proven himself to be all-in. At a certain point, need management to push the right buttons and for the players to perform. Make a series of poor value deals is not a way to prove anything other than your short-sightedness. That said, I do think trading a Mauricio and/or Vientos makes sense for the right deal. Badly need a reliever who can go head-to-head against Acuna, Riley, Albies & company in the 8th inning of a one run game.
Trading prospects is not automatically a poor value deal. Like anything, it depends. If they had wanted to keep Baez, they could have done so. They chose not too. Money allows this. Crow Armstrong is looking good in the minors but he’s a long way off from the majors and no guarantee what kind of player he will be. Other recent trades include Kelenic and Dunn for Diaz and Cano. Who knows how that one works out in the end. At this moment, I’m surprised to say I’m happy we have Diaz and not Kelenic. In 2019 we traded Woods Richardson and Kay for Stroman. Stroman was good. Dunn and Kay are going nowhere. That’s 4 top prospects who were traded in recent years that at this point look like they’ll not be major leaguers of note. The criticism could be not getting more for them. The criticism could be not drafting and developing better prospects to begin with. But had they not traded them at all we’d be in worse shape than we are, because they are fairly worthless in the present time. Most prospects do not turn into high end major leaguers. But all can be turned into major league talent. Knowing when to trade them is the key. Just holding all of them probably leads to a worse outcome then trading every one of them. That’s an Analytics argument for trading every prospect.
I don't believe a SP is the right move unless Max has an issue coming back from his oblique. I am not banking on Jake during the season - I don't want him in the regular season, I want him October. Starting or out of the bullpen like Price and Kershaw gets a ring rather than some game in August against the Pirates or Fish.
Cookie, Walker and Bassitt are doing great and will only get better with McCann behind the plate. Peterson and Williams will, too. The SP available now were not traded in offseason on purpose b/c they have years of control and are automatically getting a higher return at the deadline. The cost for any of the starters right now and every second to 4PM 8/2/22 is too damn high! If we're going with a starting pitcher that's good stats wise and not getting press try the A's Paul Blackburn.
From Fangraphs:
14S, 6-3, k/9 6.5, bb/9 2.2, HR/0 0.6, BABIP .283, ERA 2.97, XERA 3.80, FIP 3.41, XFIP 3.71, WAR 1.3
BWAR is 2.2
He would cost a lot b/c he's going into arbitration starting this year, but trading Dom & or JD and MAURICIO (my biased exhibit A for Steve's point that Mets Minor leaguers shouldn't be hoarded when the value they can return on farm or MLB level is big plus they're blocked in system...) would get us a MLB player with options who's controllable and can join Matt Allen as 'next tier' of starters after Max/Walker/Jake/Cookie/Bassitt age out or become FAs and our post Jake rotation and depth starting 2024 is:
Peterson+MeGill+Blackburn+Allen+Ziegler+this year's draft pick if it's one of the SEC SPs.
Go for a reliever. Get the guy..take a low risk move by getting Steckenreider from the Mariners (not on 40 man) and try a new locale and fixing him with our up and coming pitching lab and analytics teams. The bullpen is where we need the most help. We don't need bench bats. We just need Buck to set and play the same lineup (barring injury) for a full homestand or road trip and see if it gels. That might be a factor in why we can't win more than 3 or 4 in a row and have only swept a team 1x. That is fine for 162 game season, does not bode well for playoff series.
Lee, I don’t think JD or Smith have the value to bring much return anymore. And I’ve heard more bad reports about realistic projections of Mauricio than good reports. So I don’t think that’s enough of a package to get Blackburn from the As. Maybe Matt Allen could do it. A projected front of the rotation starter for a guy who’s blossoming now as an effective starter and is a few years ahead. The As might do that figuring it pushes the bill back by 4 years or so and maybe they’ll have a new stadium and a chance to compete by then.
But it’s not realistic to project our future starting rotation. I say Let’s get through this season. We’ll have the resources to put together a fine rotation in 2024.
Just throwing a name out there for the silly thought experiments with Blackburn. I don't think any of them are getting moved and the Mets are going to have a quiet deadline unless Scherzer has a major setback. At that point anyone can and should be traded to get the team to the post season when Jake and/or Scherzer are back at that point.
If he's acquired - or any starter with controllable years, then one of the big 4 are gone at the deadline and that's a mistake if we are going to be Dodgers East. I agree Mauricio has limited value, but MLB evaluators see him as a huge benefit. Allen is on IL recovering from TJ and if he was going to get moved they'd have moved him for Lindor and kept Wolfe and/or Gimenez. The Mets still have 2 reps in the industry: 1 that we screw up player development and people are willing to take on our players to 'maximize potential' - and have success with it, and 2, our GMs (mostly Alderson, et. al) are terrible negotiators or managers of the Trade Deadline and can get fleeced easily. Both are still true until Eppler proves otherwise.
We should use our reputation to our advantage. Take our “screwed up prospect” and “fleece” us in the deal. Except this time it really is an unfixable prospect.
Dont totally disagree - but for me and waiting 36 years and counting - there is NO ONE in that crappy farm system that cant be traded. 1) a starting pitcher, 2) a 3B-man. Wating for somene like Alverez who may not even be good enough for MLB is silly - get rid of him to some team that thinks small and get some payers in here to win a Championship.
All in!!!! (Except for Alvarez)🤪
I want an 8th inning reliever and a 4th outfielder like Benintendi.
Sadly, these were both clear needs during the winter, when it would have only cost money.
We are going as far as Jake and Max take us. If those two aren't right, it doesn't matter how well we patch the boat.
Benintendi would be perfect. A solid outfielder and LH bat. His bat replaces the failed Cano, Dom, and Escobar (from the Left side) attempts made thus far. Play Luis every day, and only play Escobar against LH pitching whether as DH or 3B. Say goodbye to JD and Dom. Maybe even pick up Zack Greinke in the deal. Now what would it take to make that happen?