Gone Fishin'

Mets linked to Luis Castillo, face Marlins over the weekend

Good Morning,

The Mets had a night off, but if you’re a Knicks fan, you’re probably still scratching your head over what they did last night. Jonathan Macri has you covered in the Knicks Film School newsletter, so make sure you check that out. For those of you who don’t know, before Mets Fix, KFS was my first baby. It started as a Twitter account and evolved into a newsletter, which I handed over to Mr. Macri, who has taken it to another level.

As for the Metropolitans, Thursday brought two outcomes you hate to see. First, the Braves won again. They are 18–3 in June. And they are only four games back in the standings. Later in the night, the Yankees proved Houston is in fact beatable, rallying in the ninth to win for the 52nd time in 70 games.

Of course, all of that doesn’t matter as long as the Mets keep winning. They will try to do so in Miami this weekend, where they will find plenty of sunshine and the welcome return of several players. Seth Lugo was activated from the paternity list yesterday, James McCann is expected to return from the IL and it’s possible we could see Max Scherzer back on Sunday.

It was a relatively slow news day, so let’s jump into some hot stove talk.

🗣 HOT STOVE: The biggest news item of the day is a rumor: Jon Heyman reports the Mets are “among a few teams showing early interest in Reds starting pitcher Luis Castillo.” He adds they would “presumably have interest in other starters, as well, including his teammate Tyler Mahle, who they talked about in winter, and A’s star Frankie Montas, who they’ve scouted, too.”

WHAT THIS MEANS

We are a little over a month away from the trade deadline, so expect the rumor mill to start churning. Teams and agents will use reporters to create markets for different players. And the Mets are now market-makers, with Steve Cohen putting his club in every conversation because of his willingness to spend and the uncertainty over how aggressive he will be in chasing a World Series this season.

For this particular rumor, there’s more to it than the typical hot stove chatter. The Reds are a dumpster fire — losers of seven in a row and stewards of the second-worst record in baseball. They were close to trading Castillo and Mahle before the season even began, so why not now?

TELL ME ABOUT CASTILLO

Heyman mentioned several names the Mets could target at the deadline, but let’s focus on the lead name, Castillo. A 29-year-old right-hander, he is 2–4 with a 3.71 ERA pitching for a terrible team in a homer-friendly ballpark. He has a proven track record as a flamethrower who excels at run prevention. He would undoubtedly make the Mets a more formidable team.

What’s concerning is the loss of velocity on his fastball this season, especially after he missed spring training and the first month of the season with shoulder soreness. He is also striking out hitters less frequently. But that hasn’t translated into poor results. He is still commanding the baseball and keeping hitters off balance with his rich mix of stuff. When he needs a swinging strike, he can still get it.

WHY THEY SHOULD BE PATIENT

While the Mets have been beset by injuries to their rotation, they should have both deGrom and Scherzer back by this time next month. In the meantime, they have more than adequately filled the long gap without them using depth starters like David Peterson. Unless we learn Carlos Carrasco’s injury is more serious than we know now, or one of the aces has a setback, the Mets shouldn’t act like a team that is desperate for starting pitching, even though you can never have enough.

That is because they want to be a team that competes year-over-year, like the Dodgers. Mets president Sandy Alderson told MLB Network Radio earlier this week that they would be cautious in trading prospects at the deadline, especially after giving up Pete Crow-Armstrong for a few months of Javy Báez.

SNY’s Andy Martino has reported the team would prefer “lower-cost rotation depth” instead of an expensive addition, especially after acquiring Chris Bassitt in the spring.

Castillo is an arbitration-eligible player signed on extremely team-friendly terms ($7.35 million this season) that any trade partner would only have to pay a small portion of for his services in August and September. He will not be a free agent until 2024. The field of potential landing spots is wide, which only raises the price to acquire him even higher.

You only need four starters in the playoffs. If Scherzer and deGrom are healthy and pitching as themselves, Castillo essentially gives you a third or fourth option, along with Bassitt, Carrasco, Walker and possibly Megill. It’s not impossible that Bassitt, Carrasco or Walker prove more worthy of pitching a critical Game 3, leaving only one game unaccounted for in a best-of-7 series. If they win that game en route to a championship, any price is worth it, but if they can get by with what they already have, trading some of the team’s few remaining top prospects is a steep price to pay to insure one playoff game.

WHY THEY SHOULD BE AGGRESSIVE

See the comment a few paragraphs up: you can never have enough pitching. Even if the Mets are healthy at the trade deadline, that doesn’t mean they will remain healthy over the final two months of the season. What can appear to be an embarrassment of riches can quickly turn into a poverty area, especially given the history of injuries surrounding our favorite ballclub.

Plus, trading for Castillo wouldn’t only help the team in the near term, it would give them much-needed starting depth through the 2023 season.

The Mets enter the offseason with four of their starters as potential free agents. And the only mainstay of the rotation is turning 38. Surely, the Mets can bring back whomever they want, but they have work to do: Carrasco has a vesting option that kicks in if he reaches 170 innings, which is no guarantee; Bassitt has a mutual option for 2023 and took the longest path to come to terms before arbitration; Walker has a $6 million player option that he will certainly look to improve; and we all know deGrom is seeking a big-time deal.

🔻 BOTTOM LINE: You can’t compete for a championship without premier starting pitching. Trading for Castillo would give the Amazins another top arm for this season and next. That said, they should be patient in evaluating the health of their current staff before trading valuable prospect capital. Steve Cohen might have unlimited funds, but GM Billy Eppler has a small stack of trade chips; they need to use them wisely.

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Some more news and notes from yesterday…

🫴 CATCHER: As mentioned earlier, James McCann is expected to join the team in Miami. He completed his rehab assignment this past week with Binghamton. He has been missed behind the plate for his defense and game-calling—Mets pitchers have a 2.67 ERA with him putting down the signs, compared to 4.22 with Nido and 4.63 with Mazeika. Offense is a thing we might have to wait for Francisco Álvarez to someday provide from the backstop position. McCann is hitting .196 on the season with 6 RBIs. Nido and Mazeika combined to hit .201 with 10 RBIs in his six-week absence.

🗣 SPECULATION: Speaking of catchers, Jim Bowden of The Athletic lists the Mets as one of the best fits for Cubs’ backstop Willson Contreras. He will be a free agent after this season, so a potential rental piece. He can either catch or fill a void at DH in New York. Bowden also notes Dominic Smith remains a likely player to be traded.

🍎 ROSTER MOVES: To activate Seth Lugo from the paternity list, the Mets sent down Yoan López. They will have to make another roster move to bring back McCann, which obviously results in optioning Patrick Mazeika. If Scherzer is healthy enough to return on Sunday, they will likely send Adonis Medina back down.

🗓 UP NEXT: Taijuan Walker (5–2, 2.88 ERA) will take the ball against Sandy Alcantara (7–2, 1.72) in tonight’s game against the Marlins. Chris Bassitt (5–5, 4.03) will face off against southpaw Trevor Rogers (3–6, 5.83) on Saturday. And either Max Scherzer (5–1, 2.54) or David Peterson (4–1, 3.18) will pitch on Sunday against another left-hander in Daniel Castano (0–1, 2.57).

🦚 PEACOCK: Note that Sunday’s game will be televised exclusively on Peacock at 12:05 PM. Play-by-play announcer Jason Benetti will be joined in the booth by analysts Cliff Floyd (former Mets and Marlins player) and Tommy Hutton (long-time Marlins analyst).

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◾️ Aaron Judge added to his incredible season by delivering a walk-off single in the Yankees’ come-from-behind victory against Houston last night. His team will ironically spend today convincing arbitrators that he is worth $4 million less than he is seeking for this season.

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🔗 The next few weeks will be crucial for Mets' present and future, by Andy Martino, SNY: “Mets people are hoping that Jacob deGrom will be back in the big leagues a few weeks ahead of the Aug. 2 trade deadline, giving them a chance to evaluate whether a pitcher who has not pitched in more than a year can make a meaningful contribution in 2022. For that reason and a few others, the next few weeks will be determinative in setting a course for the Mets’ pitching strategy at the deadline.”

🔗 The reason behind Mets' outfield transformation, by Mike Petriello, MLB: “This year, Mets outfielders are above average for the first time in years. If being plus-2 in OAA and 13th-best doesn’t sound impressive, well, remember the details of that entire paragraph above. It’s not the primary reason the Mets are better, but it’s certainly one of many little ones. Consider it this way: On balls hit at least 250 feet that weren’t home runs, the 2019-21 Mets allowed a .258 average. The 2022 Mets are allowing just a .219 mark. But why? What’s changed?”

🔗 For the Mets, Deep Breaths, a Little Chatter and a Lot of Wins, by James Wagner, NY Times: “The top team in the National League has improved in numerous ways. Part of that process was slowing down and finding a way to maintain focus.”

🔗 Andres Gimenez’s emergence puts greater microscope on Mets’ Francisco Lindor deal, by Mike Vaccaro, NY Post: “Gimenez is having a terrific year, as one of the cogs on a Guardians team with maybe the most fun offense in baseball. He is 23 years old, which almost makes him grizzled on the youngest team in MLB. He was hitting .302 heading into Thursday’s game with the Twins. His OPS was .834, his OPS+ a stout 137. We bring this up, of course, because Gimenez used to be a Met, and a well-thought-of Met, before he was used as a chip in the trade that brought Francisco Lindor to New York.”

🔗 Jeff McNeil is a throwback . . . and the versatile Met is one of the top hitters in the NL, by Laura Albanese, Newsday: “If there’s one thing that’s true about McNeil, it’s that his particular brand of baseball is undoubtedly a blast to behold. McNeil is a throwback, and everywhere all at once, a ball of kinetic energy that uncoils to poke pitches out of the strike zone and into the opposite field. His spray chart looks like it was painted by Jackson Pollock, and when he’s at the plate, he can hit it 369 feet for a home run (June 15) or flick at a 95-mph sinker at the very bottom corner of the strike zone and somehow end up at second with an infield double (June 14).”

🔗 How the Yankees and Mets can get better at the trade deadline, even without a splash, by Joel Sherman, NY Post ($): “Escobar has not played well on either side of the ball. But he is not easily removed. He quickly has become part of the professional bedrock that has been key to the Mets success. He also hits lefty pitching well, which is not a strength of the team. Perhaps the Mets are best served by starting Luis Guillorme at third more regularly against righty pitching plus using him to defend when protecting a late lead, and then finding a righty bat to DH more regularly since J.D Davis is not bringing enough, especially when it comes to power.”

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