Feb 16, 2023·edited Feb 16, 2023Liked by Jeffrey Bellone
I do not listen to sports radio or podcasts and I am no longer on Twitter so I rely on this newsletter. It's quite comforting to have all the news on one place. You deliver the goods, JB. It was also nice to see you up close and personal. It would have been a lot more surprising if deGrom had come into spring training ready to go. I have to admit that once I heard the news, I was relieved. No, I do not want him to be hurt but yes, I am glad the Mets knew when to pull the plug. Very un-Mets-like and I like it. As for Mariano Rivera, yeah dude, you are the single reason the Yankees had that string going in the 90's but I hope Edwin Díaz chips away at those records while you have visions of "Enter Sandman" in your head. I would think Citigroup would have a vested interest in keeping the naming rights. It's the only time people do not hate them.
Great stuff. I have a general question. Is there a stat that measures performance based on ERA and innings pitched? What I mean is, 200 innings with a 3.00 ERA is more valuable than 100 innings with a 3:00 ERA. The 200-inning pitcher obviously contributed more to the team. But how can that be measured? Another way to look at it: Bassett had a 3.50 ERA over 180 innings. If Senga only throws 140-145 innings, what would his ERA have to be to “match” Bassett’s performance?
Great question. I think WAR is probably the best way to account for the difference in innings pitched. For example, David Peterson had a 3.83 ERA over 105.2 innings last year, while Carlos Carrasco's ERA was 3.97 over 152 innings. Carrasco's WAR was 2.4, while Peterson's was 1.4.
I find in ironic that ERA is even used these days, as it is the average number of earned runs allowed every 9 innings, and apparently 9 innings is no longer an important landmark in baseball.
A sophisticated metric would meld the average number of runs allowed by a pitcher in an inning, with a way of crediting the pitcher for pitching. The more they pitch, the less someone else needs to pitch. Need a extra day off? Fine, but that hurts your metric. Had to go to the bullpen an inning earlier than expected and a couple of innings later we needed to use a AAAA guy or a tired guy to get a high leverage out and he blew it or the high leverage guy wasn’t available the next day when we needed him because he had to bail you out? Ding on you (I’m looking at you, deGrom).
I’m sure Mariano was being toungue in cheek when he answered the question about walk up songs. But from a pure walk up song phenomena perspective, there is reason for comparison. Diaz’s use of the song put that artist and song on the map. Enter Sandman was already an iconic hit by a prominant group by the time Mariano started using it. And another prominent closer, Billy Wagner, used it contemporaneously. Because it’s an obvious and unsophisticated choice for a closer to use. And I’d bet back in the late 90’s, it was chosen by a team/stadium employee.
Was he being tongue in cheek? All of those 90's Yankees think they're gods. I completely agree that Metallica is banal and a poor choice under any circumstances, not just walk-up songs. I bet Mariano hates hearing "Narco." That warms my cold heart.
AFTER reading these in depth articles it's apparent you really need a girlfriend for a GOOD ROLL IN THE HAY. YOU might even enjoy it more than endless NY MET information.
The ballpark naming rights link. $20M in revenue per year for a team with revenue and expenses as high as the Mets. Interesting. Seems a little low when you consider how much advertising and marketing costs, Super Bowl adds not withstanding.
And that’s far and away the high number in the MLB?
Some of these names are just embarrassing! For $2M per year, the Whitesox are ok playing in “Guaranteed Rate Field”? $6.4M and Astro players have to play in Minute Maid Park? Petco Park for only $2.7M per year? Have some pride San Diego. I thought you want to play with the big market boys. Where is the shame these days?
I still wonder about the data that is used in these algorithms however, such as DRS+ that you sited. Vogey projects to have a high DRS+. How much is that due to his high walk rate? He gets the same credit for a walk that Lindor or Nimmo or Marte gets, but his walk is no where near as helpful as theirs. Context. And this recognition of splits. Is his overall DRS expectation based on tge assumption the he’ll only have a handful of at bats against left handers? Well someone needs to replace him for those at bats. How is that person gonna do, and what is that person unavailable for because he has to take over for Vogelbach? Say you PH Pham (your example from the podcast yesterday, I think). Now he can’t go play the OF, lest we lose the DH entirely.
I’m gonna guess DRS+ does not take this context into consideration. Vogi is not 15% better than average.
Btw, Pete with the canned answer about a long-term deal reminds me of how much he has pulled back since his LFGM days. He has tamped down on his interaction with the fans and seems relieved that Lindor and Nimmo are now the camera-facing leaders of the Mets. Even Nido is more involved than Pete. So, Pete hearts NY but does he heart it enough to play here when he and Chelsea start their family, build their dream house? I bet Kim Ng has her eye on him now.
I wasn’t thinking about how this is different for Pete. But I did notice how he made a solid “canned”answer, and it was easy and appropriate. Unlike how DeGrom set us all in a tizzy by saying he would be opting out last spring training. Just unnecessary. Pivot. That’s PR 101. Why make anyone nervous or upset before you have to?
His PR is on point, I agree. It is my observation that Pete & Chelsea are pulling back from Mets' PR events and have pulled way back on social media. It's his life and career but I didn't get the feeling Petey was bleeding orange and blue. It's all good - maybe he'll be included in package for Ohtani at the trade deadline! (Actually, I don't think Ohtani is coming to the east coast. On the Mets or Yankees, his privacy would be seriously compromised. I see Ohtani in a Padres uniform.)
I think he’ll be a long term Met. As to PR events, I notice the guys in the commercial, Nimmo, Nido, Senga all signed contracts this off season, and Lindor fairly recently in the scheme of things. I wonder if they have a PR requirement in their deals. Pete is still on a generic contract.
Ha, yes, I was definitely thinking about what you have said recently about Pete and a possible contract extension. Was only thinking economics at first but Pete has changed. It may have started during last year's spring training with that car accident. You know, life is short, I love what I do but the ultimate goal is home and family...what if I can play baseball in Florida, do what I love and secure my long-term future, live in a less sports crazy town, etc.
I do not listen to sports radio or podcasts and I am no longer on Twitter so I rely on this newsletter. It's quite comforting to have all the news on one place. You deliver the goods, JB. It was also nice to see you up close and personal. It would have been a lot more surprising if deGrom had come into spring training ready to go. I have to admit that once I heard the news, I was relieved. No, I do not want him to be hurt but yes, I am glad the Mets knew when to pull the plug. Very un-Mets-like and I like it. As for Mariano Rivera, yeah dude, you are the single reason the Yankees had that string going in the 90's but I hope Edwin Díaz chips away at those records while you have visions of "Enter Sandman" in your head. I would think Citigroup would have a vested interest in keeping the naming rights. It's the only time people do not hate them.
Great stuff. I have a general question. Is there a stat that measures performance based on ERA and innings pitched? What I mean is, 200 innings with a 3.00 ERA is more valuable than 100 innings with a 3:00 ERA. The 200-inning pitcher obviously contributed more to the team. But how can that be measured? Another way to look at it: Bassett had a 3.50 ERA over 180 innings. If Senga only throws 140-145 innings, what would his ERA have to be to “match” Bassett’s performance?
Great question. I think WAR is probably the best way to account for the difference in innings pitched. For example, David Peterson had a 3.83 ERA over 105.2 innings last year, while Carlos Carrasco's ERA was 3.97 over 152 innings. Carrasco's WAR was 2.4, while Peterson's was 1.4.
I find in ironic that ERA is even used these days, as it is the average number of earned runs allowed every 9 innings, and apparently 9 innings is no longer an important landmark in baseball.
A sophisticated metric would meld the average number of runs allowed by a pitcher in an inning, with a way of crediting the pitcher for pitching. The more they pitch, the less someone else needs to pitch. Need a extra day off? Fine, but that hurts your metric. Had to go to the bullpen an inning earlier than expected and a couple of innings later we needed to use a AAAA guy or a tired guy to get a high leverage out and he blew it or the high leverage guy wasn’t available the next day when we needed him because he had to bail you out? Ding on you (I’m looking at you, deGrom).
I’m sure Mariano was being toungue in cheek when he answered the question about walk up songs. But from a pure walk up song phenomena perspective, there is reason for comparison. Diaz’s use of the song put that artist and song on the map. Enter Sandman was already an iconic hit by a prominant group by the time Mariano started using it. And another prominent closer, Billy Wagner, used it contemporaneously. Because it’s an obvious and unsophisticated choice for a closer to use. And I’d bet back in the late 90’s, it was chosen by a team/stadium employee.
Was he being tongue in cheek? All of those 90's Yankees think they're gods. I completely agree that Metallica is banal and a poor choice under any circumstances, not just walk-up songs. I bet Mariano hates hearing "Narco." That warms my cold heart.
AFTER reading these in depth articles it's apparent you really need a girlfriend for a GOOD ROLL IN THE HAY. YOU might even enjoy it more than endless NY MET information.
The ballpark naming rights link. $20M in revenue per year for a team with revenue and expenses as high as the Mets. Interesting. Seems a little low when you consider how much advertising and marketing costs, Super Bowl adds not withstanding.
And that’s far and away the high number in the MLB?
Some of these names are just embarrassing! For $2M per year, the Whitesox are ok playing in “Guaranteed Rate Field”? $6.4M and Astro players have to play in Minute Maid Park? Petco Park for only $2.7M per year? Have some pride San Diego. I thought you want to play with the big market boys. Where is the shame these days?
Great analysis of the PECOTA variance stuff, JB.
I still wonder about the data that is used in these algorithms however, such as DRS+ that you sited. Vogey projects to have a high DRS+. How much is that due to his high walk rate? He gets the same credit for a walk that Lindor or Nimmo or Marte gets, but his walk is no where near as helpful as theirs. Context. And this recognition of splits. Is his overall DRS expectation based on tge assumption the he’ll only have a handful of at bats against left handers? Well someone needs to replace him for those at bats. How is that person gonna do, and what is that person unavailable for because he has to take over for Vogelbach? Say you PH Pham (your example from the podcast yesterday, I think). Now he can’t go play the OF, lest we lose the DH entirely.
I’m gonna guess DRS+ does not take this context into consideration. Vogi is not 15% better than average.
Btw, Pete with the canned answer about a long-term deal reminds me of how much he has pulled back since his LFGM days. He has tamped down on his interaction with the fans and seems relieved that Lindor and Nimmo are now the camera-facing leaders of the Mets. Even Nido is more involved than Pete. So, Pete hearts NY but does he heart it enough to play here when he and Chelsea start their family, build their dream house? I bet Kim Ng has her eye on him now.
I wasn’t thinking about how this is different for Pete. But I did notice how he made a solid “canned”answer, and it was easy and appropriate. Unlike how DeGrom set us all in a tizzy by saying he would be opting out last spring training. Just unnecessary. Pivot. That’s PR 101. Why make anyone nervous or upset before you have to?
His PR is on point, I agree. It is my observation that Pete & Chelsea are pulling back from Mets' PR events and have pulled way back on social media. It's his life and career but I didn't get the feeling Petey was bleeding orange and blue. It's all good - maybe he'll be included in package for Ohtani at the trade deadline! (Actually, I don't think Ohtani is coming to the east coast. On the Mets or Yankees, his privacy would be seriously compromised. I see Ohtani in a Padres uniform.)
I think he’ll be a long term Met. As to PR events, I notice the guys in the commercial, Nimmo, Nido, Senga all signed contracts this off season, and Lindor fairly recently in the scheme of things. I wonder if they have a PR requirement in their deals. Pete is still on a generic contract.
I'll take that bet.
Ha, yes, I was definitely thinking about what you have said recently about Pete and a possible contract extension. Was only thinking economics at first but Pete has changed. It may have started during last year's spring training with that car accident. You know, life is short, I love what I do but the ultimate goal is home and family...what if I can play baseball in Florida, do what I love and secure my long-term future, live in a less sports crazy town, etc.