Good Morning,
I typed out and deleted the opening line of today’s newsletter about seven times.
That’s because I can’t help myself from wanting to make a sly comment about Jacob deGrom already missing a day of camp with tightness in his left side, but I also don’t want to see him injured, and I definitely don’t want to tempt the baseball gods into sending bad karma the Mets’ way.
Maybe it’s best we just move on.
Yesterday, I had the privilege of appearing on The Mets Pod with Joe DeMayo and Connor Rogers. It was a lot of fun. Make sure you check it out:
I will pick up on the pod’s conversation about PECOTA and projection variance later in the newsletter. I will also discuss the bigger bases.
But first, let’s catch you up on the latest news.
🔄 ROTATION MATH: Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner considered a six-man rotation or the use of openers and piggyback starters. But the Mets plan to start the season using a traditional five-man rotation, per The Athletic.
🍳 HOT STOVE: The Yankees inquired about Carlos Carrasco in December, according to Andy Martino. The Mets were reportedly looking to shed salary when they were close to signing Carlos Correa.
Fast forward to yesterday, the Mets were one of six teams in attendance for former All-Star closer Zack Britton’s workout on Wednesday. Due to a slew of injuries, Britton has only thrown 19 innings over the past two years.
🔷 STILL AROUND: After clearing waivers last week, Khalil Lee is back in Port St. Lucie as a non-roster invitee. “We trust the process and we’re letting it run its course,” Showalter said in reference to MLB’s investigation of assault allegations against Lee. “It’s not something we want to delve into a lot […] from a baseball standpoint we’ll handle it the way we’re told to handle it.”
💰 FUTURE VALUE: Pete Alonso deferred questions about a possible contract extension. “I just know that I’m a New York Met in 2023,” Alonso told reporters on Wednesday. “I’m just really happy and fortunate to be here. I love the city and I love the fan base and I love being here. I’ve really enjoyed my time here. Honestly, any speculation or anything on the future, I don’t know, but I love it here.”
🎺 TRUMPETS: Mariano Rivera says “there’s no comparison” between his iconic Enter Sandman entrance song and Edwin Díaz’s Narco entrance. “That song was there for 17 years and many championships, so there's no comparison,” Rivera told Jennifer Williams of Fox 5.
🏟️ STADIUM RIGHTS: An analysis by Christopher Soto shows Citigroup’s naming rights deal with the Mets and “Citi” Field is the most lucrative in the major leagues.
🤝 SCHERZER AND VERLANDER
As news broke about deGrom’s injury, the Mets’ twin aces were busy in Port St. Lucie. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are reunited after spending time together as teammates nearly a decade ago.
“We’re at different stages of our careers and more importantly we’re at different stages of our lives. Things will definitely be different now,” Scherzer said in reference to his somewhat strained relationship with Verlander in Detroit. “I really don’t see that being an issue whatsoever.”
As Verlander continues to defy odds with his age, Scherzer said throwing 200 innings is one of his goals this season. He hasn’t tossed that many since he was with the Nationals in 2018.
Speaking in deGrom’s old locker, Verlander expressed excitement about pitching with his former Detroit teammate.
📬 FROM DOUG: There’s a brief tweet yesterday from someone about the new bases, trying to explain how the distance to first is still the same as it was, but the distance between 1-2 and 2-3 is about 4.5 inches shorter, due to how the bases are lined up. Seems like it would be a great thing to explain with a graphic in the newsletter if you have time. A drawing of it would help it make sense to people. I didn’t realize that the distances would be unequal with the new bases.
One of the confusing aspects of the bigger bases is how they change the distance between first and second, and between second and third. It’s no longer 90 feet separating each station, as the graphic below explains.
While the bigger bases are intended for player safety, the relative shorter distance could obviously help baserunners in stealing situations.
As I mentioned yesterday and talked about on The Mets Pod, the latest PECOTA projections were released earlier this week. The Amazins are projected to win ~96 games and take home the division crown. I think we would all sign up for that right now.
Similar to my analysis on ZiPS, I thought it would be informative to look at which players have the highest and lowest PECOTA variance. We know Pete Alonso is going to be good. But is he going to break his career mark and hit 60% above league average, or take a step back and finish closer to the pack? What about everyone’s favorite whipping boy, Darin Ruf? Is there any hope for him to return to form?
The table below can help us answer these questions. Relying on BP’s all-encompassing hit stat, DRC+, we can compare each player’s 50th percentile projection (around where PECOTA projects them to land) with a downside value (10th percentile) and an upside value (90th percentile) to see which player has the largest gap, or variance.
Pete Alonso’s name floats right to the top. As we guessed, he’s an awesome hitter in almost any iteration, hitting 16% above league average in the “worst case” scenario.
But let’s look at the next three names below Pete, and particularly Daniel Vogelbach. I’m not surprised to find Vogie and Ruf near the top of this list, along with two hard-to-predict prospects. It’s Vogelbach’s baseline that sticks out to me. A 115 DRC+ would be the highest of his career. If he realizes any of that upside, he is set to be a key cog against right-handed pitching in the Mets’ lineup.
Whenever PECOTA is released, I am always most interested in what’s new. This year they incorporated an additional model to project each player’s anticipated splits, which helps us better understand a player like Vogelbach. The same logic applies to Ruf; his baseline is around league average, which is better than what ZiPS thinks of him.
⚾️ Drilling into the pitchers, we find an immediate trend comparing the starters to the relievers. There is much more variance among relievers. Of course, the name that sticks out is the one that isn’t highlighted toward the bottom of the table. Edwin Díaz is not only projected to have the team’s lowest deserved run average (DRA-), but his projections have a much tighter variance.
To put these numbers in better context, I looked at how the starters ranked among their peers. Scherzer’s 15 point DRA- variance gap was the eighth lowest among qualified starters (of the 167 projected to start > 15 games). Both Verlander (37th) and Quintana (54th) also ranked well. Carlos Carrasco (75th) and Kodai Senga (94th) were closer to league average.
Does it pass the sniff test? Yes! As I said on the pod, Senga is the most challenging player to project. How will he react to a different baseball, a new environment, tougher competition and a revamped work schedule?
🔻 BOTTOM LINE: Projections are fun. They are great for fantasy baseball experts, or when it’s February and we want to dream about what our favorite players might do. But let’s not forget the human element. Or to put it in projection terms, the variance. Whether Darin Ruf lives up to his upside or falls flat on his face again, that’s up to him. The projections tell us what’s possible. The players must execute.
◾️ As noted in the opening, Jacob deGrom is being held back a day or two due to tightness in his left side.
◾️ Yankees starter Frankie Montas needs shoulder surgery and could miss the entire season.
◾️ Mariners outfielder Taylor Trammell is expected to miss six-to-seven weeks with a broken right hand.
◾️ With regional sports network owner Diamond Sports Group headed toward bankruptcy, commissioner Rob Manfred says MLB will find a way to make the games available to fans.
🔗 Key to Mets’ season — How to protect Verlander, Scherzer and older rotation, by Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic ($): “The Mets will play their first seven games in Miami and Milwaukee, where retractable roofs prevent weather postponements. Poor weather, though, inevitably will alter a team’s best-laid pitching plans. Injuries will, too. Hefner said the Mets will remain flexible, ready to pivot when necessary. A mere $450 million investment is at stake. The Mets need to keep the starters as healthy as possible, throughout the regular season and, presumably, into October.”
🔗 Nolan Ryan-esque Justin Verlander is anti-Jacob deGrom, by Jon Heyman, NY Post: “Justin Verlander, who will turn 40 Monday, spoke at length at Mets camp about his goal of pitching forever — well, at least closer to it than just about anyone else. Verlander’s career, sure to end at the Hall of Fame, has been defined by almost incomparable dedication to his craft and unending desire to compete. His attitude and aptitude are a near match.”
🔗 For Mets, spring the start of a tale to be shaped by time, money and pressure, by Will Sammon, The Athletic ($): “Verlander explained to reporters that because he had played for only two other teams and was once traded midseason, this marked his first spring training with a new organization in 18 years. He said he felt like it was his first day at a new school. Less than a week from his 40th birthday, Verlander remains the same curious, diligent and exemplary student.”
And we close this one out with Kodai Senga explaining his Ghost Fork…
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And please check out our newsletters about the Knicks and Isles, too.
I do not listen to sports radio or podcasts and I am no longer on Twitter so I rely on this newsletter. It's quite comforting to have all the news on one place. You deliver the goods, JB. It was also nice to see you up close and personal. It would have been a lot more surprising if deGrom had come into spring training ready to go. I have to admit that once I heard the news, I was relieved. No, I do not want him to be hurt but yes, I am glad the Mets knew when to pull the plug. Very un-Mets-like and I like it. As for Mariano Rivera, yeah dude, you are the single reason the Yankees had that string going in the 90's but I hope Edwin Díaz chips away at those records while you have visions of "Enter Sandman" in your head. I would think Citigroup would have a vested interest in keeping the naming rights. It's the only time people do not hate them.
Great stuff. I have a general question. Is there a stat that measures performance based on ERA and innings pitched? What I mean is, 200 innings with a 3.00 ERA is more valuable than 100 innings with a 3:00 ERA. The 200-inning pitcher obviously contributed more to the team. But how can that be measured? Another way to look at it: Bassett had a 3.50 ERA over 180 innings. If Senga only throws 140-145 innings, what would his ERA have to be to “match” Bassett’s performance?