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Kevin Johnson's avatar

Great stuff. The simple explanation of leverage issues for HS vs. college draftees was news to me, so thanks.

I really enjoyed SNY explaining last night how odd Wrigly is for having such long distance down the lines, noting Lindor FO would have been homer everywhere else.

A free feature idea for you: why not recruit a local (or expert) to do short explainers on each stadium Mets visit? My preference would be heavy on influence on play and strategy, such as the long distance lines in ChiTown. Of course, history and other strangeness also fun. Last night Ron noted how old dugouts in Chi left tall guys, even 6 footers, bumping their heads. I know you have real jobs and families, but seems to me (from my retirement chair) that some calls could easily find people anxious to show off their knowledge and write the pieces for you. They would not at all be time-sensitive (can be done well in advance) and relationships might lead to other free content for you.

Along the same lines (with no extra charge above my consultant fee) could you get a catcher or other expert to wax lyrical on why catchers’ seeing soooo many pitches doesn’t make them better hitters? Why isn’t it a snap for them to recognize breaking balls, for instance? Add other elements holding offense down from catchers such that 220 BA is ok.

If I totally misunderstand your process, forgive me, but thought you might be able to gather content from experts glad to be “published” without much effort from you.

If not, I will continue to jaw jaw from my non-expert seat and enjoy your efforts.

Take the weekend (meaning Sunday PM) off.

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

Ha!! I always wondered the same thing about the catchers as hitters, Kevin! Maybe they can only read the pitch from a squat. If only they could figure out how to bat from that position we might have something!🤣

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Jeffrey Bellone's avatar

Hey Kevin,

Thanks for the great thoughts! I love the catcher idea. I will definitely try to find someone to talk about that. As for the local vibe, that’s probably easier today than in the past with the help of social media, but it might be a little tricky to find the right people. I’m sure I could find someone to tell me about the fan experience, but people who know little things about the dugout requires more direct knowledge. That said, it sounds like beyond “Know Your Opponent” it might be fun to write about the stadium too.

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Kevin Johnson's avatar

Thanks. I care much more about how the fields play, such as long lines at Wrigley. If I had an in at sny I would push THEM to do this. Perhaps ESPN will call😎. Otherwise it’s up to you citizen enthusiasts. Thanks much for your fun and informative product!

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Peter's avatar

Rocking Chair Game - never really competitive at all; enjoyable.

Rainouts stink when you're playing a bad team and the bullpen is fully rested. But they'll move on and take care of business this week.

Having a good baseball team to watch is highly enjoyable.

LGM; have a great weekend.

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Jeffrey Bellone's avatar

Rocking Chair Game. Love it! Enjoy your weekend, too!

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Peter's avatar

Can’t take credit for it. Mike Carver, who used to host an Islander podcast, coined that term (at least for my ears).

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Jeff Cohen's avatar

Thanks for the explanation on the Draft compensation pool. Very confusing. But the Mets have a great scouting department, as shown by the WAR of those drafted over the past decade. Confident that they will draft the right players.

Piece of advice to former Met, Marcus Stroman. Hey Marcus, you don't have to tweet every single thought that pops into your head. There are only 30 ML teams, and you never know what will happen. By the way, Eppler is doing an excellent job. At least we are in agreement. Mets fans are beyond thankful that you are gone from the organization.

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Wendy's avatar

I came across this article about Mike Marshall, which I found really interesting for many reasons, especially his thoughts on UCL injuries and how to prevent them: https://sportshistory.substack.com/p/mike-marshall-phd-maverick-pitcher

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

Great read, Wendy. I’ve long believed we are in an emperor has no clothes situation in baseball with the advent of pitch counts and innings limits as the UCL tear prevention strategy. No scientific data referenced, no physiological theory investigated, no proof. Injuries rise year over year, while pitches decrease in number and frequency year after year. A 50 year old surgical technique practiced by a select group of surgeons (James Andrew’s, Frank Jobe, Lewis Yocum, David Altchek, etc). Meanwhile 100 + years of MLB history dismissed with a hand wave and “those pitchers didn’t throw as hard as today and would get destroyed if they had to face today’s equally superior hitters.” And then they call any old guy who actually did it a curmudgeon. Pisses me off a bit.

JB said Peterson has “dominated”. Well, ok, until he threw that pitch to Olson and was pulled with one out in the 6th inning. They used to laugh at the statistic “Quality Start” not because it was not relevant to the quality, to the degree of “dominance” of the starting pitcher, but because it was just too easy!

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Wendy's avatar

Glad you enjoyed the article and I hope there are some pitchers out there being trained the way Marshall suggests!

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Wendy's avatar

Last night was cruise control fun. I was tickled by the cup snake. Cubs' fans seem fun, to tell you the truth. Nice to hear that Alvarez approached deGrom before the game to go over signs and strategy. The kid is not afraid to do his job. Day game vs. Marcus Stroman? I'm here for it. A sincere #LFGM to Pete Alonso for everything, especially how much he loves the Mets. And, finally, welcome to the world, Lucas McNeil! Congratulations, Jeff and Tatiana.

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Lee B.'s avatar

I sincerely hope we demolish Stroman. He's just below Bauer in terms of being a horrible human thanks to Social Media. He just hasn't gotten charged with doing horrible things, but he sends followers after people, is a total diva and troll. I'm not even bitter he opted out of 2020 the day his FA kicked in w/o telling Mets his intentions, it's par for the course with him. He destroyed the clubhouse the last two years w/o media oversight and participation. Just look at Dom's body language and word choice during interviews. So glad everyone not signed to a stupid money deal associated with Thumbs Down (directly on the field or in Thor and Stro's case post-game or online) are off this team. They are the antithesis of the 'real. professional. baseball players.' brought in this offseason. Last night was nice.

I am very interested in the draft strategy this year. What made last year's strategy so bad was NOT failing to sign Rocker - that was PR bad - it was 1. that they didn't draft a backup HS guy to give all that money to later on and 2. that they apparently didn't communicate intentions to the draft room so every pick after Ziegler was an under-slot dude with low floor and ceiling - resulting in poor quality in our system manifested by our abysmal record for 2nd straight year at ALL minor league affiliates. They did draft backups the year they drafted Allan in '19 and Green in 2020. They didn't sign those kids, but they did well. The kid in Allan's draft got picked in top 100 in 2021 a year after being a late rounder for us. No matter how we draft, I hope after signing all the big FAs and re-signings next offseason that Cohen drops $20M or so into minor league player development. To be Dodgers East we must improve our development process sooner rather than later. MLB roster is only going to get older, and the farther away we can get from the Eickhoff and Szapucki spot starts over the course of a season, the better.

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

Good post Lee. I’m not a big twitter follower, so I don’t have much insight into Stroman as sending followers after people, but I did follow him briefly during his free agency last fall/winter, and clearly there’s something wrong with him. Kind of narcissistic, with all his self affirming talk. Just not necessary. Twitter is an awful place.

I couldn’t agree more on the need to do anything they can to improve player development. This seems like an issue that can be solved with Cohen’s money, so I am hopeful. That’s one of the reasons I want to trade the upper level prospects (besides for Alvarez). I believe we would be selling fairly high on Baty, Vientos, and Mauricio. Those guys are pretty well out of the system and not relevant to the reBooting that starts now. They should be looked at as individual assets, therefore, and they can really help us right now by being traded, while not necessarily being worth much to us in the next 3 years if held on to. Like 99% chance trading Baty now gets us a key player to put us over the top, vs 50% chance he’s an improvement over Escobar at 3B on the 2023 Mets.

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Lee B.'s avatar

Vientos is the 3B of the future. Alvarez is C of the futrue. Baty could be 1B of the future if Alonso becomes too expensive (considering the $ owed after arbitration and likelihood of having crossed CBT multiple times and big $ pitcher contracts on the books at time he gets a deal) or move to the DH or OF. The more home grown guys, the better. It's how you win and sustain winning. We also have a guy...Cortez...who is a 2B/CF that would be good to hold on to. Mauricio is blocked for a decade at primary position and is blocked in secondary positions by MLB guys now and outplayed by other prospects. He is the golden child. Personally, to move Mauricio has the added benefit of signaling Sandy is 100% out of Baseball Ops - which has been needed since 2015 (he did not 'construct a WS team' he only traded for Cespedes out of public pressure that Jeffy bowed to; he was content to keep Mayberry Jr. and Campbell as regulars supplemented by appeasing the fanbase with the Johnson/Uribe and Reed deals because he wanted a full year of the starting Fab 5 in 2016.)

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

How do you know that Vientos is a better bet at 3B than Mauricio? I’ve read a great deal about Vientos that says he will not be playable at 3rd. Both have tremendous power, but Mauricio has more fielding talent.

You think we should hold on to Baty instead of trading him for someone who can help us win the 2022 World Series, just in case Steve Cohen can’t afford to replace Pete Alonso, home grown superstar on a possible path to the hall of fame on the 2024 squad?

I think trying to hedge bets on future payrolls is unwise. This isn’t the Knicks. We are not crippled by salary caps and complex contractual contortions. We have all kinds of expiring contracts, the ability to carry the highest payroll of any team, and the expiring contracts should be looked at as opportunities, not obligations to keep all the players.

Most important thing for this farm system is developing high quality prospects in great numbers starting with the draft this Sunday, and with improvements in the player development infrastructure starting in this upcoming offseason. I’m beyond thrilled that we have an apparent superstar 20 year old catcher in AAA. But the others may have already reached their top level of worth. We need to trust that the front office knows whether that is the case and acts accordingly with the assets. That’s what the Dodgers do.

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Lee B.'s avatar

Good points Jonathan. Mauricio has better fielding because he grew up and was an ideal profile for shortstop. The problem is he's become Ahmad Rosario with maybe more power. He doesn't fit the profile and he doesn't have the tools or strength to throw across the diamond or consistently hit for power as expected at a corner position. Everyone holds on Mauricio because they're so attached to the international prospect. The same people hyping him have excused his lack of development over the last few years outside of the unknowns of covid by hiding behind his age. Baty and Alvarez show that doesn't work very well. Until Alvarez started to hit in AA Mauricio was the god tier Prospect of our system.

I agree hedging the future like the Knicks will in a potential trade with the jazz or banking on future payroll is not a good strategy. However you should account for insane arbitration raises for Alonso and Jake finishing in his career as a met at Garrett Cole like cost rather than his current Club friendly deal when looking at the next 3 offseasons or at this deadline where - if Eppler truly has autonomy from Sandy - we have our first Dodgers East level of flexibility throughout the organization.

To accommodate both will require sacrifice from keeping nimmo, future ceilings for free agents and whether or not we extend McNeil. Gratefully the threshold is immensely higher than we're used to.

Baty does make a lot of sense to trade, but there is less likelihood to trade him because we will only have Matthew Allen and Ziegler as top one through third-round picks in our system for the last 4 years. He will be kept to symbolize breaking the cycle of bad trades more than maybe he deserves. I like both a lot. Baty and Vientos have shown better results trying outfield and first base in addition to primary positions, whereas Mauricio has struggled at 3rd and was just passable in Center occasionally in the same way Ahmed Rosario and Center sounded appealing. I see Baty maximizing himself as JD Davis, or rather JD Davis as he should have been.

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Jonathan Warmflash's avatar

I don’t know why you are so certain that they would keep Baty for the image of not trading all of their first rounders. I really hope you are wrong about that. Enough garbage gets in the way of these decisions without three dimensional chess PR thinking.

I think they are saying they won’t trade the top guys to build up the value. They have to decide if there is a player or two they think can put them over the top, and then they figure out how much prospect capital it takes to make the deal. They’ve ranked each of their guys to know who they’d prefer to keep over the others, but I don’t think any of them except for Alvarez are penciled in as regulars in the next two years, and they know that plans are made to be changed. Too many variables that can’t be controlled for. The stars are lining up for 2022. They are so close. With a healthy DeGrom in his walk year, Likewise Diaz, the seasons Walker, Nimmo, and Bassitt are putting together, also in walk years? Alonso, Scherzer, Lindor, McNeil, Marte, all healthy and putting on a show? And all we need is a couple reliable pen arms and a dependable DH? So close!!! We’re gonna target what we need, try our best to outbluff, but in the end they are gonna trade whoever we need to and give this team its best shot to win it all. And we’re not gonna look back and regret.

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Lee B.'s avatar

Im only guessing the why but Baty and Alvarez were named by Sandy on a podcast this week as not touchable. it really surprised me he didn't mention Vientos or Mauricio. I think Vientos comes up week after all star game when they reorganize rosters. I think Alvarez comes up September or before if the offense sputters again. If I ranked order of tradeability I'd go Mauricio- Baty- Vientos-Allan-Alvarez.

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Wendy's avatar

Someone in this thread said "the more home grown players the better" and I generally agree but not for economic purposes. Team building leads to better teams. Training players the "Mets" way should ensure consistent winning teams. I cannot help but notice how Atlanta does it. The Mets should not be afraid to trade a prospect but home grown has some very good features to it.

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Lee B.'s avatar

I agree with the sentiment. When I think of really good teams that are sustainable I think of the '90s Braves and Yankees. The Braves dominated the regular season because they traded for pitching with Maddox and Smoltz and drafted around them. They never won more than one championship. The Yankees won four and made five or six in a row with predominantly homegrown players at all nine positions. When they became the team that paid for everything they went a decade without winning and are dominating now only after retooling the farm most of the 2010s.

I like what the Braves do now, but we need to fix our draft strategy and hold on to enough players or develop them better to have the quality of prospects from one to 100 to pull off those trades

Everyone saves sandy, but his inability to develop prospects beyond pitchers or assess talent for trades since the 80s with Oakland is dreadful and is not acknowledged enough. Im really excited for Eppler and his team to call some shots.

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