Cub-fortable Times
Mets win easy, previewing the MLB Draft
Good Morning,
Think about it: We haven’t even lived the best day of the regular season yet. No, this newsletter hasn’t turned into one of those motivational emails. It just resonated with me while watching the Mets dominate the Cubs, a day after beating the Braves (and apparently nobody else is going to beat them), that this Mets team has gotten off to one of their best starts in franchise history (second most wins through 90 games to the ‘86 Mets), and yet, objectively, better days are ahead.
We know that because they have been winning games with David Peterson (supposed depth starter) and Carlos Carrasco (perhaps the team’s fifth starter) dominating opponents. All while waiting for the best pitcher on the planet to return to the rotation.
That pitcher, Jacob deGrom, threw 42 pitches (29 strikes) in perhaps his last rehab start before climbing a major-league mound again.
“I feel good,” deGrom said, via ESPN. “Felt a little out of whack the first two innings and I tried to make a little bit of an adjustment. I wasn't locating my fastball quite like I wanted to early on but then the last couple of innings felt a lot better.”
The Mets’ ace allowed two hits and one walk, while striking out four. He also had the opportunity to pitch to top prospect Francisco Álvarez, who has now caught both deGrom and Scherzer over the past month.
“He did a good job,” deGrom said of the young backstop. “He came up to me before the game, asked kind of what I wanted to do and was a nice target.”
The Amazins remain 2.5 up on Atlanta, who beat the Nationals last night. New York will play three more against the Cubs this weekend before the All-Star break. Marcus Stroman will face his former team on Friday.
▼ IN SHORT: The All-Star trio of Pete Alonso, Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil each made their presences felt in the lineup, Brandon Nimmo had a big night, Carlos Carrasco pitched six shutout innings and the Mets handed Chicago their seventh straight loss, winning the opener of their four-game series, 8–0 [Box Score].
A few takeaways…
🍪 COOKIE CUTTER: Perhaps no player on the Mets’ roster is as tantalizing as Carlos Carrasco. At times, it appears as if the Mets traded for a has-been, someone who is easy to root for as a person, but hard to expect much from on the mound. We saw that over his last four starts in June in which his ERA nearly touched 10 runs!
Since then, he has allowed only three runs in 17.1 innings. You can usually tell by the first inning whether we are going to see the “Good Carrasco” and yesterday was no different, as he struck out the side in the first, scattering five hits over the next five innings.
🤩 ALL STARS: It didn’t take Starling Marte long to announce himself back into the Mets’ lineup, reaching base on a line drive single in the first inning and scoring the first run off Francisco Lindor’s double. Marte, who has been sidelined since Saturday with groin tightness, finished the night 2-for-5.
“It’s not easy, he’ll make you shake your head a couple of times,” Showalter said of Marte’s seamless return to the lineup, via MLB. “It’s just a reminder what a splendid athlete he is. He’s gifted.”
His All-Star teammate and new dad, Jeff McNeil, also got a hit, calling his last few days “perfect.”
And to cap it off: Pete Alonso mashed his 24th homer of the season, adding to his major-league leading 74 RBIs, the most before the All-Star break by a Met since David Wright in 2006.
⚾️ RELIEF: Trevor Williams did exactly what you are supposed to do in a blowout game, throwing 35 of his 45 pitches for strikes, whiffing four, while allowing only three hits. The right-hander has played a critical role as a swingman, pitching effectively both as a starter and long reliever. Yesterday’s performance lowered his ERA to 3.56 on the season.
2022 MLB Draft Preview
Everything you need to know ahead of the 2022 MLB Draft.
Snapshot
🗓 DRAFT BEGINS: 7:00 PM EST on Sunday, July 17, 2022
📺 WATCH: ESPN / MLB Network / MLB.COM
🔝 METS FIRST PICKS:
11th overall (compensation for not signing Kumar Rocker)
14th overall
🔢 ADDITIONAL PICKS: After the first round, the Mets will select 52nd, as well as 75th as compensation for Noah Syndergaard rejecting his qualifying offer and signing with the Angels. They will select 90th and then every 30 picks thereafter, beginning with 119th until 599th in the 20th and final round.
💰 BONUS POOL: $13,955,700 (third most)
🤔 How does the bonus pool work?
If you’re unfamiliar with how the bonus pool works, each pick in the first 10 rounds is given an assigned value, with the combined value of each team’s picks equaling their pre-penalty bonus pool amount. As you would expect, higher picks result in higher assigned values. This year, the Mets have a bonus pool of $13,955,700, the fourth highest amount since they have two first round picks (11th and 14th).
Teams don’t have to spend their bonus pool money according to the assigned values. In fact, this is part of the draft strategy. The Mets have favored an approach in recent drafts of chasing hard-to-sign players with large bonus promises, while paying college seniors under their slot value to make up the difference. It’s a matter of leverage: a top high school player can threaten to go to college, a college senior can take the bonus check or find a new walk of life.
Of course, last year, they selected college standout Kumar Rocker with their first round pick, but failed to come to an agreement for his over-slot value.
Teams who exceed their bonus pool amount by 0-5 percent face a 75 percent tax on the overage. It’s not uncommon for clubs to overspend, but never more than five percent. The Mets have recently gone over their total bonus pool by about 4%, so it’s reasonable to expect they would do the same under Mr. Cohen.
📚 Some history…
Sandy Alderson mentioned the graphic below on his podcast appearance with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman earlier this week. The Mets have the second highest WAR total for drafted players since 2010. It’s a testament of good scouting, but also of the number of drafted players the Mets have traded away in recent years.
🤓 More Reading
If you are looking for even more draft coverage, below are a few great preview pieces and mock drafts, along with another draft primer focused on the Mets. Enjoy!
🔗 2022 MLB Mock Draft 2.0: Mets picks and rest of Top 20, by Joe DeMayo, SNY
🔗 MLB Mock Draft 3.0: Keith Law updates his projection as draft week begins, by Keith Law, The Athletic ($)
🔗 2022 MLB Mock Draft 3.0, by Kiley McDaniel, ESPN ($)
🔗 Mets 2022 MLB Draft Primer: How can they make the most of two first-round picks? by Tim Britton, The Athletic ($)
🎧 LISTEN/WATCH:
Some more news and notes from yesterday…
🍎 ROSTER MOVES: To make room for Jeff McNeil, the Mets designated Ender Inciarte for assignment.
👍 PROGRESS: Trevor May (triceps) will face live batters on Sunday for the first time since being placed on the injured list back in early May.
🗣 LESSONS LEARNED: Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos was asked by The Athletic if he learned anything from this week’s series against the Mets:
No. It’s one series. We’re going to play them a bunch. You look at our last series against the Dodgers last season and we got swept (but later beat L.A. in the NLCS). You just don’t know. It was a good series, but there’s 70-something games left. At the end of the day, we just have to keep winning.
⚾️ HOME RUN DERBY: Pete Alonso will seek his third straight HR Derby title as the No. 2 seed at Dodger Stadium. He is slotted to swing for the fences against Braves’ star Ronald Acuña Jr. in the first round. The two also squared off in the 2019 derby.
🗓 UP NEXT: New York will say hello to an old friend this afternoon. Marcus Stroman toes the rubber for the Cubbies. As I mentioned yesterday, he is making only his second start since the beginning of June, missing time due to right shoulder inflammation. The right-hander has failed to match his performance from last season, pitching to a 4.91 ERA in 10 starts. He was starting to find his groove again in May before he got hurt.
Stroman actually spent Wednesday night with his former teammate Taijuan Walker, who will pitch against him on Friday.
“It would be more fun if we were hitting so we could hit against each other,” Walker said of matching up against Stroman. “But it will be a fun little matchup: See who can go out there and go further and have a better stat line.”
Stroman, who signed a $71 million contract with the Cubs in the offseason, had strong words for the Mets after the hiring of GM Billy Eppler:
“Just look at who the Mets hired as their GM... that tells you enough,” Stroman tweeted at the time. “His lack of awareness in his previous position is being exposed to the public now. I'm beyond thankful I'm gone from that organization. God got me!”
New York will send Max Scherzer and David Peterson to the mound in the final two games before the break.
◾️ Seattle extended their second-largest winning streak in franchise history with a come-from-behind win over the Texas Rangers on Thursday. The Mariners are winners of 11 straight.
🔗 Mets in for ‘fire drill’ winter with potential number of free agents, by Jon Heyman, NY Post: “The Mets will have an interesting winter, with Brandon Nimmo, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino and Seth Lugo all free agents or potential free agents (deGrom and Walker have opt-outs, Carrasco has an innings trigger). As one Mets higher-up said, ‘It should be a fire drill.’”
🔗 Cubs reliever David Robertson could be on Mets' wish list by trade deadline, by Tim Healey, Newsday: “The other relevant New York connection is Mets general manager Billy Eppler, who was a Yankees executive during Robertson’s first stint there. Robertson called Eppler ‘a friend of mine.’”
And we leave you with this important interview by Steve Gelbs…
Thanks for reading! Follow us on Twitter for regular updates until our next newsletter.
And please check out our newsletters about the Knicks and Isles, too.
Great stuff. The simple explanation of leverage issues for HS vs. college draftees was news to me, so thanks.
I really enjoyed SNY explaining last night how odd Wrigly is for having such long distance down the lines, noting Lindor FO would have been homer everywhere else.
A free feature idea for you: why not recruit a local (or expert) to do short explainers on each stadium Mets visit? My preference would be heavy on influence on play and strategy, such as the long distance lines in ChiTown. Of course, history and other strangeness also fun. Last night Ron noted how old dugouts in Chi left tall guys, even 6 footers, bumping their heads. I know you have real jobs and families, but seems to me (from my retirement chair) that some calls could easily find people anxious to show off their knowledge and write the pieces for you. They would not at all be time-sensitive (can be done well in advance) and relationships might lead to other free content for you.
Along the same lines (with no extra charge above my consultant fee) could you get a catcher or other expert to wax lyrical on why catchers’ seeing soooo many pitches doesn’t make them better hitters? Why isn’t it a snap for them to recognize breaking balls, for instance? Add other elements holding offense down from catchers such that 220 BA is ok.
If I totally misunderstand your process, forgive me, but thought you might be able to gather content from experts glad to be “published” without much effort from you.
If not, I will continue to jaw jaw from my non-expert seat and enjoy your efforts.
Take the weekend (meaning Sunday PM) off.
Rocking Chair Game - never really competitive at all; enjoyable.
Rainouts stink when you're playing a bad team and the bullpen is fully rested. But they'll move on and take care of business this week.
Having a good baseball team to watch is highly enjoyable.
LGM; have a great weekend.