While others talk Dance Team and circulate pathetic Keith McPherson takes, Mets Fix delivers the absolute best, most important info. Fantastic as always. Thank you.
I think people miss something important about Steve Cohen. Yes, he has a ton of money. What's another $60 million to him?! It's nothing.
But let me submit this idea: He's a proud & successful *businessman.* That's how he earned all that money, by running a sound financial business. And I think he's made some business determinations the past few years. For starters, that the organization must be solid with top-flight coaches, scouts, facilities, etc. It's not an overnight build. That the minor league system is the key to everything -- a consistent flow of talent, trading options, low-cost young productive players. He jump-started that process through the July trades, the so-called "dead money" contracts that netted actual young talent: Acuna, Gilbert, etc. That free agency is a powerful but extremely expensive supplement for team-building, but isn't the answer across the board (it's a poorly stocked supermarket).
I believe he was embarrassed to spend the most and win only 75 games. It's bad business. People laugh at it. And I don't think he became Steve Cohen by running a sloppy, fat, lazy business where the only possible answer for the next pitcher is free agency and excessive, risky contracts for past-peak veterans.
The issue is not at all: Whether he can afford it or not. It's whether it is good business for the organization moving forward.
The old way was: Oh, we missed out on A-Rod, let's sign Kevin Appier instead!
Lastly, I think he'll always exceed the tax limit, but I think he wants more bang for his buck, and not to exceed it for only "good" talent and 3rd-place finishes.
Not bad Jimmy ! I agree on all this espeically on Soto. However, After listening to the lastest Podcast there is more then enough evidence that this is not a one year thing. Its a uncapped sport yet Sterns and Cohen are worried about the "luxury tax". So much so they are willing to play to empty seats for at least 2 years so that they will be competitive again. So what is it a uncapped sport or one where the tax makes it capped.
I think a lot of assumptions are being made on next years payroll and what Cohen might be willing to spend. IMO, Cohen will be in on both Pete and Soto...Taxes be damned. Him not spending this year likely has more to do with the free agents available, and Stearns not thinking these FA are worth the price/length of deals. Also, I would not be surprised if McNeil's salary is shed in a trade.
I agree. Stearns believes the players we have can get the job done well enough. Montgomery is not such an upgrade over, let’s say, the Megill Lucchessi tandem that would get fewer starts if Monty were signed. JD is not gonna help that much more than Vientos, who would be forced out if the lineup and possibly off the roster.
I don’t know if he’s right, but of course I hope he is.
I really doubt specific free agent targets for next year are part of the calculus. Next year’s free agent market is far less predictable than how the players you have in your system will perform. The analytics departments are hard at work perfecting the algorithms of the latter, not the former.
Agree with the point on spending. A bit wild that a loud part of the fan base forgets they were willing to give Yamamoto 325mm and potentially higher if he was given a chance to match another offer. Think the dual-track path recently discussed on the podcast is clearly what’s going on - and I love that they made a plan and stuck to it as opposed to panicking and overpaying people just to sign them. As they mentioned on Wheeler, it’s important that you identify the right people with these contracts … while Montgomery makes sense to me for this year and next … feel like it’s as simple as the front office just doesn’t see it with him? Fully expect them to be in on Pete, Soto, and the top pitchers (who are clearly better than anyone this year), and if they miss out on them, a pivot to reset would make sense as a backup plan. That said, find it very hard to believe they wouldn’t at least make Pete a Met for life based on Uncle Steve’s tone.
I get the logic but can’t see McNeill being traded … incredibly versatile and better to at worst have him as a super utility guy at a reasonable 12.5mm salary for next year. Trade some lower level prospects or sign your pitching in free agency instead of trading someone like 🐿️ … but admittedly may be clouded by my strong affinity for a home grown batting champ
Agree with all you said, except for next year’s pitching market. I see no pitcher so obviously better than Montgomery to sign to a similar deal, given that there is a 100% chance Montgomery is available, and signing him would include having him for all of 2024, and waiting instead for next off season leaves you with something less than 100% chance of a pitcher you desire being available (wheeler is already off the market, eg, any if the other guys might get injured between now and then, or decide they like it where they are, or other teams will surely compete with us for their services). Decision makes so smart in math wouldn’t gamble on that.
The evidence therefore suggests to me they have confidence in the current starting pitching under control to form a strong rotation in 2025 and beyond (Scott, Vasil, Hamel, Tidwell, Stuart, Sproat, Megill, Peterson, Butto)
1--Sandy talked novice owner Steve into grabbing McCann instead of waiting for Realmuto.
2--Yes, Scherzer's Washington contract was great for both sides. And then his Mets contract was a disaster: the ATL series in 2021, the playoffs, and "Sticky Fingers".
One question on the reset. What is the benefit to the Mets if they can get entirely under the first tax threshold as opposed to the 2nd? I know the 3rd has the Steve Cohen tax and draft penalties.
They have to get entirely under the first threshold to keep their draft pick from falling back 10 spots and to reset the % they pay for taxes whenever they exceed the threshold again. The more times you exceed the initial threshold in a row, the higher the tax surcharge. Otherwise, there is no benefit remaining below the second threshold other than a smaller tax penalty.
Have you discussed this with Peter? Who reiterated on the podcast today that the Dodgers had “reset” their luxury tax last season. They did not. They exceeded the threshold again.
Glad you are listening with a sharp ear lol. You are correct. The Dodgers did not reset their penalties. They followed the logic I talked about in the newsletter today, keeping their payroll "sustainable" so they aren't exceeding the tax with wasteful contracts.
While others talk Dance Team and circulate pathetic Keith McPherson takes, Mets Fix delivers the absolute best, most important info. Fantastic as always. Thank you.
Thank you! Another issue of Mets Fix Accounting lol
Keith McPherson is the worst. WFAN has really gone down the toilet.
I think people miss something important about Steve Cohen. Yes, he has a ton of money. What's another $60 million to him?! It's nothing.
But let me submit this idea: He's a proud & successful *businessman.* That's how he earned all that money, by running a sound financial business. And I think he's made some business determinations the past few years. For starters, that the organization must be solid with top-flight coaches, scouts, facilities, etc. It's not an overnight build. That the minor league system is the key to everything -- a consistent flow of talent, trading options, low-cost young productive players. He jump-started that process through the July trades, the so-called "dead money" contracts that netted actual young talent: Acuna, Gilbert, etc. That free agency is a powerful but extremely expensive supplement for team-building, but isn't the answer across the board (it's a poorly stocked supermarket).
I believe he was embarrassed to spend the most and win only 75 games. It's bad business. People laugh at it. And I don't think he became Steve Cohen by running a sloppy, fat, lazy business where the only possible answer for the next pitcher is free agency and excessive, risky contracts for past-peak veterans.
The issue is not at all: Whether he can afford it or not. It's whether it is good business for the organization moving forward.
The old way was: Oh, we missed out on A-Rod, let's sign Kevin Appier instead!
Lastly, I think he'll always exceed the tax limit, but I think he wants more bang for his buck, and not to exceed it for only "good" talent and 3rd-place finishes.
None of this is easy.
I am encouraged by the direction.
And Soto ain't happening.
Not bad Jimmy ! I agree on all this espeically on Soto. However, After listening to the lastest Podcast there is more then enough evidence that this is not a one year thing. Its a uncapped sport yet Sterns and Cohen are worried about the "luxury tax". So much so they are willing to play to empty seats for at least 2 years so that they will be competitive again. So what is it a uncapped sport or one where the tax makes it capped.
The Luxury Tax is so severe at Steve's level that it acts like a de facto cap.
They are playing it that way for sure
I think a lot of assumptions are being made on next years payroll and what Cohen might be willing to spend. IMO, Cohen will be in on both Pete and Soto...Taxes be damned. Him not spending this year likely has more to do with the free agents available, and Stearns not thinking these FA are worth the price/length of deals. Also, I would not be surprised if McNeil's salary is shed in a trade.
I agree. Stearns believes the players we have can get the job done well enough. Montgomery is not such an upgrade over, let’s say, the Megill Lucchessi tandem that would get fewer starts if Monty were signed. JD is not gonna help that much more than Vientos, who would be forced out if the lineup and possibly off the roster.
I don’t know if he’s right, but of course I hope he is.
I really doubt specific free agent targets for next year are part of the calculus. Next year’s free agent market is far less predictable than how the players you have in your system will perform. The analytics departments are hard at work perfecting the algorithms of the latter, not the former.
Agree with the point on spending. A bit wild that a loud part of the fan base forgets they were willing to give Yamamoto 325mm and potentially higher if he was given a chance to match another offer. Think the dual-track path recently discussed on the podcast is clearly what’s going on - and I love that they made a plan and stuck to it as opposed to panicking and overpaying people just to sign them. As they mentioned on Wheeler, it’s important that you identify the right people with these contracts … while Montgomery makes sense to me for this year and next … feel like it’s as simple as the front office just doesn’t see it with him? Fully expect them to be in on Pete, Soto, and the top pitchers (who are clearly better than anyone this year), and if they miss out on them, a pivot to reset would make sense as a backup plan. That said, find it very hard to believe they wouldn’t at least make Pete a Met for life based on Uncle Steve’s tone.
I get the logic but can’t see McNeill being traded … incredibly versatile and better to at worst have him as a super utility guy at a reasonable 12.5mm salary for next year. Trade some lower level prospects or sign your pitching in free agency instead of trading someone like 🐿️ … but admittedly may be clouded by my strong affinity for a home grown batting champ
Agree with all you said, except for next year’s pitching market. I see no pitcher so obviously better than Montgomery to sign to a similar deal, given that there is a 100% chance Montgomery is available, and signing him would include having him for all of 2024, and waiting instead for next off season leaves you with something less than 100% chance of a pitcher you desire being available (wheeler is already off the market, eg, any if the other guys might get injured between now and then, or decide they like it where they are, or other teams will surely compete with us for their services). Decision makes so smart in math wouldn’t gamble on that.
The evidence therefore suggests to me they have confidence in the current starting pitching under control to form a strong rotation in 2025 and beyond (Scott, Vasil, Hamel, Tidwell, Stuart, Sproat, Megill, Peterson, Butto)
This is a good thing.
If Megill can translate this to 6 or 7 IP starts consistently we might really have something here. He’s throwing extremely well.
Your podcast day got me mad twice:
1--Sandy talked novice owner Steve into grabbing McCann instead of waiting for Realmuto.
2--Yes, Scherzer's Washington contract was great for both sides. And then his Mets contract was a disaster: the ATL series in 2021, the playoffs, and "Sticky Fingers".
Well, that was a waste of time but at least we answered listener mail.
https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/nationalleaguetown/episodes/A-Rainout--Banged--and-the-Mailbag-e2gnstv
One question on the reset. What is the benefit to the Mets if they can get entirely under the first tax threshold as opposed to the 2nd? I know the 3rd has the Steve Cohen tax and draft penalties.
They have to get entirely under the first threshold to keep their draft pick from falling back 10 spots and to reset the % they pay for taxes whenever they exceed the threshold again. The more times you exceed the initial threshold in a row, the higher the tax surcharge. Otherwise, there is no benefit remaining below the second threshold other than a smaller tax penalty.
Thanks Jeff. I know I could have looked that up, but I was lazy :-)
Have you discussed this with Peter? Who reiterated on the podcast today that the Dodgers had “reset” their luxury tax last season. They did not. They exceeded the threshold again.
Glad you are listening with a sharp ear lol. You are correct. The Dodgers did not reset their penalties. They followed the logic I talked about in the newsletter today, keeping their payroll "sustainable" so they aren't exceeding the tax with wasteful contracts.