🧑🦱 by Blake Zeff
It’s easy to see why many Mets fans are hungry to sign free agent Trevor Bauer to a fat contract this month. If you watch enough starts by the likes of Walker Lockett, Ariel Jurado, and Robert Gsellman, a Cy Young winner looks like sunshine to an Alaskan.
Sandy Alderson (who went on a bit of a Trevor-buying spree last month) seems pumped by the idea, too. But is it really a no-brainer?
Bauer’s coming off of a season so phenomenal, he beat Jacob deGrom for the Cy (Jake’s had three new managers since the last time that happened). And Bauer deserved the prize, racking up a 1.73 ERA, 0.795 WHIP and 100 K’s in 73 innings.
But that last number is meaningful, too: 73 innings.
How small a sample is a 60 game season? Had the 2019 season ended at that point, deGrom likely would have lost that award too, and the eventual champion Washington Nationals (and winner of 93 regular season games) would have sported a 27-33 record and failed to even make the playoffs. Bauer’s season was impressive, but dominating for two months should not be equated with sustaining it for six.
If you want a fuller sample by which to assess him, let’s look at Bauer’s 205-game career over parts of nine seasons. During that time, he’s put up a 3.90 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, numbers that actually look very similar to Marcus Stroman. Unlike Stroman, Bauer’s strikeout rate (9.7/9 innings) has been excellent, and steadily climbing (12.3/9 in 2020). And his walk rate, a major problem earlier in his career, has steadied. But, Bauer’s still got just two seasons in his career with an ERA under 4 runs (if you prefer more advanced metrics like FIP, his numbers there are similar). And he’s only put together one exceptional full season, notching a 2.21 ERA and whiffing 221 batters in 175.1 innings in 2018.
The talent is clearly there. The results have been inconsistent.
But as Sandy has said before, baseball is an entertainment business. And Bauer has a big personality.
Is it the right fit for New York? A 2019 Guardian hit piece subtly titled, “Why Is Cleveland Indians’ Trevor Bauer MLB’s Most Hated Man?” alleges the right-hander “has been irritating opponents, fans and even his own teammates for years.” And, in the column, Bauer actually agrees.
In 2019, the pitcher was accused of harassing a college student on social media, tagging her in 40 tweets, turning his followers against her and reducing her to tears. A few weeks later, he was entangled in a highly contentious arbitration battle against Cleveland in which he accused the club of “trying to demean my character.” And a few months after that, he was upset at being removed from a game, and, “consumed by emotional fire,” whirled a fastball into the centerfield stands as manager Terry Francona came to get him. Said his catcher Eddie Perez afterwards, “He was just being Trevor.”
Still, Bauer is by far the best available pitcher on the free agent market and could command a contract that pays him comparable to (if not more than) deGrom. Steve Cohen obviously has the cash to afford it, with plenty left over for other free agent acquisitions, as well. But if you assume the front office staff has a budget they have to work within, the prospect of signing Bauer needs to be weighed against other options and priorities. Would you rather spend a big chunk of the remaining allotment on Bauer, or use it instead on George Springer or DJ LeMahieu, or maybe a trade-and-sign for Francisco Lindor? When you spend a huge amount on a big acquisition, upside is what gets you excited - but attributes like predictability and reliability can help you avoid disaster (says this satisfied Subaru driver).
The drop-off after Bauer in the starting pitcher market is not pretty, with names like Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi among the more palatable options available (but with the Mets also being linked to intriguing Japanese ace Tomoyuki Sugano, who, as we mentioned last week, brings high upside and unpredictability like Bauer, yet likely a much lower investment cost).
If Bauer’s price-tag climbs high enough, is he really worth an enormous, franchise-centering, long-term investment?
“I’m good at two things in this world,” Bauer said back in 2019. “Throwing baseballs and pissing people off.”
Whoever signs him will be betting big that Bauer becomes more consistent with the first one, and less with the second.
Welcome to the new name
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
The Metropolitan: it makes me think of art, a signature cocktail, a fancy name printed on the arch above an apartment building doorway, New York City and a favorite baseball team. And now it is a newsletter that will mix design, attitude, community, local reporting and analysis in telling a story about the Mets, who were originally incorporated in 1961 as the New York Metropolitan Baseball Club, Inc.
Over 2,500 pieces of mail, scribbled with name suggestions from Metro-Dodgers to Empires, were once counted in a Fifth Avenue office building when men wore hats to work, smoked cigarettes indoors, and the Yankees were the only remaining baseball team in the five boroughs of New York.
Only 61 people actually voted for the name Mets, beating out the Empires (47 votes) and the Islanders (45). Most submitted their own ideas as fans were asked to pick a nickname of the National League’s new team that would come to replace the Giants and Dodgers.
But the shorthand for Metropolitan had already been written by reporters over the prior weeks, printed in ashy ink and transferred to the locals through city tabloids read on steel boxes that screeched and hustled along underground tracks that had come to replace the street level trolleys Brooklynites once dodged on their way to Ebbets Field.
Unless you grew up listening to Steve Somers, the New York Metropolitans, in name, only existed as an American Association baseball team between 1880-1887. Ironically, they first played in Brooklyn, before moving to the original Polo Grounds, which bore the name of the stadium where the modern-day Mets (no affiliation) would play their first two seasons as Shea was being built.
Today we bring Metropolitan back into our baseball conscience, weaving together antiquity with modernity in providing you with a weekday newsletter about your favorite team. We hope you enjoy it.
MORNING BRIEFING
Below are the additional newsletter sections that were sent in the original email newsletter this morning. We later move the analysis section to the top of this page for linking purposes.
⏰ Catch me up on what I missed over the weekend…
⚾️ SPRING TRAINING: While COVID always has the final say, it appears Spring Training will start on time, per a recent report by The Athletic. Assuming Mets’ pitchers and catchers will report the customary 10 days before their first scheduled spring game, that puts us 44 days away from our favorite date on the winter calendar.
🍎 FIRST BASE COACH: Tony Tarasco will replace Tony DeFrancesco as the Mets first base coach next season.
📝 NOTE: Baseball is a game of numbers. What are the odds a Tony -co would replace another Tony -co as the first base coach of a major league team? Tarasco will also oversee the outfielders and baserunning, an area where the Mets need to show improvement next season. DeFrancesco will remain in the organization as Senior Advisor, Player Development and Scouting.
🗣 STARTER MARKET: A report from Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media said there is a good chance free agent Masahiro Tanaka will either re-sign with the Yankees or return to Japan. However, Tanaka tweeted over the weekend that he will “consider all teams that are interested,” while noting on a radio show in Japan that his chances of returning home are “not zero.” The Mets could get involved if they decide to pass on the top starter on the market (more in a bit).
🗣 BAUER WATCH: Trevor Bauer tweeted a video in which he revealed that he was meeting (via phone) with the Blue Jays on New Year’s Eve to “talk to their pitching coach and their high performance coach and all them and see what they have to offer.”
🇯🇵 SUGANO WATCH: Japanese starter Tomoyuki Sugano arrived on U.S. soil over the weekend in prep of his January 7 deadline to sign with an MLB team.
SOON: Since the signing needs to be official by January 7, Sugano will need to decide whether he will accept a major league offer over the next few days.
RETURN: The Yomiuri Giants have offered him a four-year deal with three opt-outs (per Ken Rosenthal), which would allow the 31-year-old to time his move to the U.S. over several offseasons, if not this one.
TEAMS: Reports suggest Sugano would prefer a big market team, with the Giants, Red Sox, and Blue Jays possible destinations, along with the Mets.
🗣 DJ: The Mets remain on the “periphery” in pursuit of free agent DJ LeMahieu, with the Yankees, Dodgers, and Blue Jays the strongest suitors, per Dan Federico
㉝ NUMBER: James McCann will wear #33 for the Mets, first worn by Ron Hunt, last worn by Todd Frazier, and also worn by that guy Matt Harvey.
🎙 HOWIE TWEETS:
Mark Feierstein @MarkFeierstein
@Usedtobeafanof @HowieRose Mookie was done. Traded in ‘89, he retired after a limited ‘91. Dykstra had 2 great full seasons with the Phillies - thanks to steroids. Glad he didn’t mar the Mets with that and his subsequent criminality.📚 ON THIS DATE IN 2006: Mets trade Jae Weong Seo and Tim Hamulack to the Dodgers for Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll. As I’m sure everyone reading this remembers, Sanchez started off his tenure in New York by setting up Billy Wagner and not allowing an earned run over his first 15 appearances (21 innings). He surrendered runs in just one of his final 12 appearances in July before a drunk driver hit his taxicab late in the night in Miami, Florida before a series against the Marlins. He separated his shoulder in the accident and wouldn’t pitch for the Mets again until 2008.
⚾️ The Red Sox are hiring Bianca Smith as a minor league coach, making her the first Black woman to coach a professional baseball team.
⚾️ Former Yankee Phil Hughes announced his retirement on Twitter.
⚾️ Buster Olney speculated in his latest column why the Rockies might need to trade Trevor Story.
Interesting links from other sites…
🔗 How a small Queens deli won over Pete Alonso and the Mets, by Bradford William Davis, NY Daily News: “All-Stars Pete Alonso and Yoenis Cespedes have dined at the deli this year and Jeff McNeil boasts about ordering from Benateri’s on Uber Eats. And though Trevor May signed a lucrative two-year deal to join the team, the new Mets reliever said the Benateri’s sandwich he picked up on the way to the airport sealed the deal. May told reporters during his introductory press conference that his sandwich put “a huge smile on my face for like hours. I was just, like, This is where I’m meant to be.”
🔗 Marcus Stroman Is Trying to Add a Strength to a Strength, by Michael Ajeto, Pitcher List: “If there’s a knock against Marcus Stroman, it’s that he pitches to contact an awful lot. He does it a lot better than most, but I suppose it’s a criticism nonetheless. There’s often a push and pull between limiting hard contact and getting whiffs, and Stroman has erred towards the former, mastering the art of being a heavy groundball pitcher while posting favorable outcomes. But he could be on the verge of making a few huge tweaks that elevate his game, too. Perhaps literally.”
🔗 Carlos Delgado says Carlos Beltran deserves second chance to manage, by Christian Red, NY Daily News: “In the eleven years since he retired from the majors, slugging first baseman Carlos Delgado says there have been stretches of time when he’s been so busy running his Extra Bases charitable foundation in his native Puerto Rico, that his schedule has mirrored the one he kept during his 17-year baseball career.”
🎧 Former Met Ty Kelly Joined Baseball America’s 'From Phenom To The Farm' podcast.
Thanks for reading! Talk to you tomorrow!
And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.
Great re-start !
You'll find an interesting assessment of Bauer on YouTube, titled "How is Trevor Bauer Cheating And Why Nobody Cares."