Let’s talk about the Padres and Tomoyuki Sugano
Introducing Blake Zeff
Good Morning,
🚨 I’m excited to announce that Blake Zeff will be joining me as co-editor of this newsletter. Blake is a Mets fan who lives and dies on every pitch like us. He also happens to be an amazing journalist.
Blake has written and edited for several well-known publications including GQ, Vice, Politico, BuzzFeed, and Salon. You might recognize him from his regular appearances on cable news, where he frequently hosted MSNBC's "The Cycle.” He is also the director and producer of a feature documentary investigating the origins and effects of the student debt crisis in America.
When I started this newsletter, I wanted to create something special for Mets fans. Adding Blake will help me accomplish that goal. On most days, you will hear from me, as Blake works his magic in the background, but he will also provide plenty of commentary, with his first contribution in the middle innings of today’s newsletter.
🗓 Remember this is the last newsletter until January 4th when we will start publishing every weekday (Monday - Friday). We will also have a few more exciting announcements around that time 👀
⏰ Only a few news notes this morning…
TREVOR BAUER UPDATE: I will just let the tweets do the talking on this one…
NEW PITCH: Marcus Stroman shared a video of a new split-change he is working on this offseason, which he says is inspired by Robert Gsellman.
CHARITY: Steve Cohen and his wife Alexandra donated $500,000 to provide meals for Queens families through the River Fund New York. The couple plan on giving back to the community as part of their role as Mets owners, and we saw that in a big way with this donation. Awesome stuff!
CLASSIC PHOTO: Someone posted this picture in Reddit. I don’t know the original source, but it’s wonderful so I had to share it:
Let’s talk about the San Diego Padres…
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
In the 2,799 miles that separate Citi Field from Petco Park, there are thousands of baseball diamonds littered with sunflower seeds and cleat markings that are cut into the dirt by today’s youth, some of whom played on major league affiliates that no longer exist, and others who represent the top prospects in the game of baseball.
And while at one time the boldness of the Padres, taking on payroll in the middle of a pandemic, would have represented the attitude of a baseball team that is both literally and quite figuratively situated an entire country away from the Mets, right now, it is only those bubble-gum chewing prospects who fill the pages of Baseball America and wear funky hats of minor league teams that symbolize the difference between the two clubs.
If the Mets had a deeper farm system, they could be the Padres this offseason, flexing their financial muscle while paying cents on the dollar for top-flight pitching. Instead, and as new owner Steve Cohen noted on Twitter shortly after San Diego traded for Yu Darvish (after they had traded for Blake Snell), New York’s National League ballclub is like most of us in this pandemic, taking care of things at home so when the world open back up again, they can spread their wings and fly to new places.
On the series of moves that landed the Padres two Ace-level starters in Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, the lead prospect writer for FanGraphs wrote, “in roughly 24 hours, the San Diego Padres traded away a total of six players who, were they dropped into the amateur draft tomorrow, would come off the board somewhere in the top 50 picks.”
While we can save the debate for how good the prospects the Padres sent to Tampa and Chicago really are (they were able to keep 11 of their top 13 prospects), the Mets are looking to build their farm depth (instead of reaching into it to acquire fancy things) while using their newfound financial resources to add to their current roster.
Which brings us to the graphic above. While nobody would suggest the Mets starting rotation couldn’t use another legitimate starter, if we look at the current projections from FanGraphs, their starting staff ranks second in projected WAR, as it currently stands! And a big reason for that is the top-heavy value of Jacob deGrom. His projected 6.4 WAR in 2021 is nearly as much as both Blake Snell (3.5) and Yu Darvish (4.1) combined.
In the offseason, it’s always, What have you done for me lately?! So it’s easy to forget the talent already on the roster.
But deGrom is only one pitcher, and as you can see in the graphic, the Mets would be at a starter disadvantage in their second and third rotation turns relative to four of the top five teams. Adding a bona-fide second starter would clearly put New York above the competition in both top-end talent and depth in their rotation.
The question for the Mets is whether the incremental improvement from maybe the 3rd or 4th best staff to the very best is worth the cost it would take to acquire a Trevor Bauer-like arm. They can make a bigger impact relative to the rest of the league at other positions, such as third base or centerfield (ahem, George Springer), while still injecting quality middle-market talent to their rotation, which is what I think they will do.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are “extensively shopping” catcher Wilson Contreras who would have made a big impact as an upgrade to the roster. In a buyer’s market, it will be interesting to see what a team pays for him, as the Mets rushed to sign James McCann, who isn’t as good, for $40 million. As I wrote extensively before, McCann was the “second best option” at catcher in a dynamic market. That standing lasted all of about five minutes. But moving on.
Sugano Time?
🧑🦱 by Blake Zeff
Speaking of free agent starting pitching, a decision is expected over the next few days on whether the Mets will land Japanese starter Tomoyuki Sugano (the official signing deadline is January 7th). While the right-hander is probably unfamiliar to most fans this side of the Pacific, there are reasons to believe his success can translate to the majors.
Let’s explain why he could be a significant signing for the Mets.
The Japanese Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league is considered by many the second best in the world (more on this below), and Sugano has simply dominated it. A two-time winner of the Sawamura Award (the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young) and a 2014 MVP, he’s thrown over 1000 innings since 2015, posting a 2.19 ERA, with averaging nearly a strikeout per inning and under two walks per 9.
Most recently, Sugano pitched 137.1 innings in 2020 to an Ace-like 1.97 ERA, along with 8.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 rates.
But will he be able to dominate Major League hitters? It’s a tiny sample size, but the 31-year-old did pitch in one game to give us a clue: facing Team USA in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, Sugano threw six innings of one-run (unearned) ball, with 6 K and one walk, against the likes of Christian Yelich, Nolan Arenado, Giancarlo Stanton and Buster Posey.
Team USA manager Jim Leyland, skipper of the 1997 World Champion Marlins, was impressed afterwards, gushing: "I can't tell you, for me, tonight, how impressed I was with their pitcher. I mean, I thought he was really good. Located on the ball on the outside corners, fastball. Threw 3-0 sliders. That's pretty impressive."
“He pitched with a lot of control,” said McCutchen. "[He] did a good job of locating his pitches, didn't give you much to hit."
"Tonight, the starting pitcher for Japan, he's a big league pitcher,” Leyland added. “He's good. I mean, I was really impressed with him."
Sitting at 92-93, Sugano is not considered a fireballer, but generates elite spin on his pitches. According to Statcast, the average spin rates of his four-seam fastball and curveball from the WBC would have ranked both pitches among the MLB leaders the season before. (For the spin-rate nerds out there, the four-seamer measured 2,513 revolutions per minute, and the curve an average of 2,859 rpm and high of 3,079 rpm).
While the Mets do not have a distinguished history in signing Japanese players — Kaz Matsui’s opening day homers and Tsuyoshi Shingo’s fashion sense notwithstanding — the NPB has a track record of developing elite starting pitchers who’ve gone on to achieve big-time success in MLB.
In recent years, the league has produced 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up (and newest Padre) Yu Darvish, 2018 AL Rookie of the Year (and two-way star) Shohei Otani, and current free agent (with 78 career MLB wins) Masahiro Tanaka. And before that, 1995 NL Rookie of the Year Hideo Nomo, who’d go on to lead the league in strikeouts twice and toss two no-hitters.
Simply put: while there’s no guarantee what any individual will do, several top NPB pitchers have had success in the Major Leagues.
And while top free-agent target Trevor Bauer seems likely to reel in a nine-figure contract, salary projections for Sugano are much more modest: ESPN projects him costing $24 million over two years ($12MM per), with the MLB team also having to pay a release fee to the Yomiuri Giants of roughly 20 percent.
If those projections are accurate, it looks like a hedged risk with potential upside.
Click here to view each pitch from Sugano’s WBC performance.
A new section! Based on feedback from readers, we will be adding a new section that summarizes the top MLB headlines so you can leave this newsletter feeling informed about both the Mets and the latest happenings around baseball.
Minnesota signed former Met Hansel Robles to a one-year, $2 million contract with up to $500,000 in incentives.
Philadelphia improved their bullpen by acquiring left-hander José Alvarado from the Tampa Bay in a three-team trade with the Dodgers. The Phillies sent LHP Garrett Cleavinger to Los Angeles, while the Dodgers sent 1B Dillon Paulson and a player to be named later or cash considerations to the Rays.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have not yet made an official offer to their free agent All-Star catcher JT Realmuto, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia.
The Cubs selloff continues as they are extensively shopping catcher Wilson Contreras, per USA Today, after trading starter Yu Darvish and non-tendering Kyle Schwarber, per USA Today.
Royals signed 38-year-old Ervin Santana to a minor league deal that would pay him $1.5 million in salary with $1.75 million performance bonuses if he makes it to the majors.
Free agent 1B Justin Smoak is finalizing a deal with the Yomiuri Giants that will guarantee him somewhere in the $6-7 million, per ESPN. And veteran 1B Eric Thames has also agreed to a deal with Yomiuri, according to Sports Hochi.
Interesting links from other sites…
🔗 SNY turned down Julian Casablancas theme song offer, by Michael Clair, MLB: “The SNY song was driving me nuts,” Casablancas told MLB.com. “I used to watch a lot of games. I knew someone who worked for the Mets, who hooked me up with tickets sometimes. I had a whole song. I was like, ‘Let me do like the song for SNY for the game.’ It was kind of epic, rising -- like an exciting game is gonna happen. But they just didn't have their [stuff] together. And they were like, ‘We don't have a budget.’ I was like, ‘You don't need a budget. I'll just give you the song. I'll do it for free.’”
🔗 A really cool story about MetsMerized executive editor Michael Mayer, by Greg Levinsky, Morning Sentinel: “Michael Mayer didn’t see it coming. Seated at DuPont Nutrition USA’s security desk in Rockland Nov. 11, New York Mets standout pitcher Marcus Stroman slid into the Metsmerized Twitter account direct messages with a piece of juicy news. The right-hander would be accepting an $18.9 million qualifying offer, effective immediately. As Mayer checked in visitors and a UPS driver made a daily delivery, the executive editor of the Mets blog was shocked to have the scoop.”
📺 From September, but watch recent Mets signing James McCann and maybe future Met (?) Trevor Bauer in a free-wheelling conversation about baseball’s popularity and marketing problems:
Thanks for reading! More to come next Monday!
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Great new start Congratulations ! If Stroman is learning a pitch from "Gisele" then he will be a worse pitcher then he already is today. I cant stress this enough - the Mets replaced Ramos with another Ramos. The reports all told us they were saving money for just one guy a centerfielder. They have basicaly 2 and 1/2 starters with Degrom, Thor and Pederson - and we are lead to belive that Familia, Diaz, and Matz are going to be better this year ? Steve help us out spend some money please !!