Tied!

🎧 Mets Fix Podcast: Episode 37

☀️ Good Morning:

You know things are going well when you have a good night without playing.

Each of the three teams the Mets are chasing in the wild-card standings lost last night:

• The Braves scored a run in the first and fell asleep the rest of the way in an uninspiring loss to the last-place Rockies.

• The Diamondbacks were walked off in the ninth inning by the Giants.

• And the Padres blew a 3–0 lead in the ninth inning to the Tigers.

With that, the Amazins are tied with Atlanta for the final wild-card spot and only two back in the loss column of the Padres and Diamondbacks. We will talk about what this really means in a bit.

🎧 But first, make sure you check out the latest episode of the Mets Fix Podcast. Blake and Peter get into the Francisco Lindor MVP debate, discuss Carlos Mendoza’s managing, as well as the bullpen, Jesse Winker as a long-term candidate to replace J.D. Martinez, the team’s defense, David Peterson and much more!

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

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Full Standings

🏇 Handicapping the Wild Card race

Incredibly, the Mets have positioned themselves to not only tie the Braves but to also apply pressure on the Padres and Diamondbacks.

With 22 games to go, it feels like this season is destined to come down to a three-game series in Atlanta near the end of the month. Because isn’t that how all modern Mets seasons meet their fate? New York already holds tiebreakers over San Diego, Arizona and Chicago, their tiebreaker with the Braves will be decided September 24 - 26.

But what about San Diego and Arizona? Is it possible both the Mets and Braves make the playoffs, leaving one of the NL West teams on the outside looking in? Could Carlos Mendoza’s group earn themselves home field in the wild-card round?

Let’s break it down:

• The Mets have the third most difficult remaining schedule in baseball and the most challenging among the wild-card contenders, with seven games remaining against the Phillies, three with the Brewers and three with Atlanta.

• Arizona has a tough road ahead as well, with seven against Milwaukee, three against Houston and three against San Diego at the end of the year.

• San Diego’s path is a bit easier: they still have to play the Dodgers, Astros and Arizona, but they also have three remaining with the White Sox and six against the Giants, who are quickly fading out of the picture.

Sitting at 76 wins, the Mets would need to go 14–8 to finish with 90. Given the tiebreakers, both San Diego and Arizona would need to finish with 91 wins to stay ahead in that scenario. That translates into San Diego finishing 11–9 and/or Arizona finishing 12–9.

Keep in mind, having won seven games in a row, the Mets have gone 15–7 over their last 22 games. It’s possible they could keep up that pace, but with a difficult schedule ahead, it might be more realistic to predict them finishing something like 13–9 or 12–10, in which case, San Diego and Arizona would only have to play roughly .500 baseball to keep their lead over the Mets.

That said, it’s not impossible. Both Arizona and San Diego are 12–8 over their last 20 games. If the Mets stay hot, they will at least make things interesting.

Either way, the path to the postseason most likely runs through Atlanta. How sweet would it be to make up for the 2022 season (and many, many, many, many, many times before) by winning a late-season series in Atlanta to knock them out of the playoffs and put the Mets in?!

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📝 ROSTER MOVES: The Mets used the off day to make a few roster moves J.D. Martinez has been reinstated from paternity leave, with DJ Stewart being optioned back to Triple-A. Meanwhile, Sean Reid-Foley has been transferred to the 60-day IL, creating a roster spot for the Mets to claim outfielder José Azócar off waivers from the Padres, optioning him to Triple-A.

The 28-year-old Azócar gives David Stearns added outfield depth, checking speed and defense boxes in skill value. He played in 61 games with the Padres this season, only hitting .219 while striking out 1/4 of the time he stepped to the plate, but he stole five bases and rates as an above-average defender in left field.

🚜 DOWN ON THE FARM: Right-hander Jonah Tong pitched six near-perfect innings in his first Double-A start on Wednesday. He retired the first 17 hitters he faced and ended his sparkling debut with nine strikeouts.

🗓️ UP NEXT: Sean Manaea (11–5, 3.35) will try to keep his stretch of dominance going against right-hander Fernando Cruz (3–8, 4.99)

📚 MUST READ: Sean Manaea is on the best pitching run of his life. The Mets need him to keep going, by Tim Healey, Newsday ($): “Manaea’s improvement stemmed from a significant change to his delivery in late July. Watching Atlanta’s Chris Sale, the potential NL Cy Young Award winner, Manaea noted his unorthodox cross-body motion featuring a lower arm slot than Manaea had long used. As a similarly tall lefthander, Manaea decided to give it a go in his next appearance. And . . . it went great, so much so that Manaea is a virtual lock to opt out of his contract for 2025 and test free agency again this offseason.”

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🕷️ Find headlines for all of your favorite teams at SportSpyder, the number one source for sports news links.

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🔗 Carlos Mendoza doesn’t seem like a rookie manager as wild-card chase heats up, by Will Sammon, The Athletic ($): “As a first-year manager, Mendoza finds himself making in-game decisions that carry serious weight late in the season. That’s because he already aced other tasks required for his gig, such as holding steady and handling difficult conversations.”

🔗 Brandon Nimmo finds new boost on basepaths thanks to Mets’ Antoan Richardson, by Mark W. Sanchez, NY Post: “Nimmo wants information about the opposing pitchers — about counts when a breaking ball (which is easier to run on) is more likely to be thrown, about how quickly the pitcher will deliver the ball, about tells from a pitcher who might be ‘doing something weird’ on the mound, Richardson said, that might reveal the best time for a steal.”

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