Good Morning,
Today we’ll discuss the dissatisfaction some Mets fans are expressing with this off-season, but we start with the news.
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
🍎 SIGNING: The Mets surprised a lot of fans by signing outfielder Kevin Pillar to a one-year deal on Monday night. He will make $3.6 million guaranteed in 2021 with an option structure that could pay him up to $10 million over two years (or as little as $5MM with a buyout after one year). New York will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move before making the signing official.
DEPTH: It’s important not to let the order of offseason moves get in the way of a proper assessment. While the Mets recently signed outfielder Albert Almora Jr., the addition of Pillar proves they see Almora more as organizational depth (he has a minor league option remaining) than as a 4th outfielder. Combined with the acquisition of prospect Khalil Lee, the front office has stocked up on outfielders to fill a gap between the current trio playing everyday and their top prospects still several years away.
DH: If the designated hitter somehow returns this season, Pillar, who played for the Rockies and Red Sox last season, essentially becomes the cheaper alternative to free agent Jackie Bradley Jr., who is reportedly seeking a large, multi-year contract. If there is no DH, Pillar will likely become a late defensive replacement and spot starter.
DEFENSE: While fans remember Pillar for making plays like this…
He is not the same centerfielder that he used to be. In fact, over the past three seasons his defensive metrics there have looked pretty bad (-14 defensive runs saved, -1 outs above average). He is probably best suited in a corner outfield position. But in limited duty filling in for Nimmo, he can obviously hold his own, and gives the Mets a better bat than Almora off the bench, particularly against lefties (against whom he hit .342 last season and .286 over his career).
CHARACTER: While Pillar quickly became a leader in the Red Sox clubhouse, and was welcomed to the Mets with open arms by his former Blue Jays teammate Marcus Stroman, he has had some controversy. He was suspended in 2017 for yelling a homophobic slur toward an Atlanta pitcher. He also came under scrutiny for his initial response to the social justice movement over the summer. However, he later issued a video to clarify his initial statement, saying “Black lives do matter to me.”
🎧 LISTEN: Our very own JB joined Mike Silva on the Talkin’ Mets podcast to discuss the offseason and potential next moves. Make sure you listen and subscribe.
🗣 BULLPEN HELP: After missing out on another potential target (former Met Justin Wilson who signed with the Yankees), the Mets are reportedly “in” on right-handed reliever Trevor Rosenthal, per Mike Puma.
🗣 STARTER HELP: The Mets have been in contact with free agent starter Taijuan Walker, who is looking for a multi-year deal at $10 million per season, per Michael Mayer.
💰 MONEY, MONEY: The Mets’ offer to free agent starter James Paxton was $6 million, per Mike Puma, well short of the $8.5 guaranteed he received from the Mariners. Meanwhile, after Seth Lugo’s injury and designating reliever Brad Brach for assignment, New York’s interest in moving Jeurys Familia and Dellin Betances may have cooled, as also reported by Mike Puma.
🎮 GAME RECOGNIZES GAME: Right-hander Josh Winckowski — acquired by the Mets in the Steven Matz trade and then traded away in the Khalil Lee deal — told WEEI in Boston he was in the middle of playing video games and had turned his phone over when news broke he had been traded to the Red Sox.
🔝 PROSPECTS: Keith Law released his Top 20 Prospect list for the Mets with catcher Francisco Alvarez #1, followed by shortstop Ronny Mauricio and RHP Matt Allan. Recently-acquired outfielder Khalil Lee landed at #7.
No, This Offseason Is Not Like Years Past
🧓 by Blake Zeff
As they watch free agents get scooped up by other teams, some Mets fans are starting to express disappointment in the team's off-season -- despite landing a top 10 player in Francisco Lindor, a #2 starting pitcher in Carlos Carrasco, and upgrades to the catcher position, bullpen, outfield and infield depth… all without dipping deep into their prospect pool.
After missing out on the top studs, some on Twitter are even comparing this off-season to previous ones under the Wilpon regime. No. The real problem? Financial genius Steve Cohen may have surprisingly failed at a basic business concept that slackers across generations have long mastered: managing expectations.
This little Constanza-like tactic — whereby you under-promise so the person you’re serving is less likely to be disappointed — can also be very useful in marriage ("This work thing might not end until after the kids are asleep," he said, looking like a hero when he got home in time to read a bedtime story, despite egregiously missing dinner and bathtime). And it turns out, managing expectations can come in handy when running a baseball team, too.
Because the truth is, this off-season has been far more productive and dynamic than recent ones (more on this in a minute). But a segment of the fan base clearly has expectations that haven’t been met.
For those thinking this is the same old Mets, let's engage in a simple exercise and compare this off-season to last year's. True, the team did not sign any of the big 4 free agents -- Trevor Bauer, George Springer, DJ LeMahieu or JT Realmuto. And while Cohen made clear he would not spend like a drunken sailor, it was reasonable to expect that the richest owner in sports would reel in one of the biggest fish. But put aside the expectation of grabbing every big name -- and here's what you're left with: A grand total of six teams acquired superstars this off-season (Bauer, Springer, LeMahieu, Realmuto, Lindor and Nolan Arenado) and the Mets were one of them. It's true the Mets didn't get more than one, but no other team did, either. Not much to complain about, there.
This isn't to say the Mets have solved every need they have, or that their work should be done. We're on record urging them to shore up their bullpen and rotation depth -- and we've been surprised to see them pass up several interesting pieces in the last week alone. But there's a reason most analysts ranking "who won the winter" have the Mets #2 behind the Padres. It should go without saying, but the Amazin's have done a lot more than last year.
Let's compare. A year ago, the Mets let a #2 starter in Zack Wheeler walk, bluntly stating that the cost was too high. Instead, the exciting bombshell of an acquisition was... wait for it... Dellin Betances. No offense to the formerly dominant 8th inning guy, but he was rehabbing several injuries, which is why the club was able to sign him to one year plus a player option (and you can surmise how the year went, given that he did indeed exercise said option).
How grand was this signing considered in the context of the old Mets? "This is a tremendously exciting gift for Mets fans this holiday season in our championship pursuit," then-GM Brodie Van Wagenen proudly exclaimed, as if dramatically presenting young Ralphie with an official Red Ryder range model air rifle.
Last off-season brought a total of three other major league signings: aging veterans Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha to the rotation, essentially competing for the 5th spot with Steven Matz. And the club re-signed Brad Brach to the bullpen, the same reliever that the 2021 Mets just (questionably) DFA'ed. The total cost of these signings? $25.6 million. The amount the club had just recouped from Yoenis Cespedes' salary after he was forced to restructure it? $23.6 million.
The Mets of a year ago also limped into the trade market, picking up backup outfielder Jake Marisnick for two prospects (one of whom, Blake Taylor, has already turned into a useful bullpen piece, but I digress).
That's it. That was the entire 2020 off-season. The Mets basically turned Yoenis Cespedes' dalliance with an animal on his ranch, into a reliever coming off of injury, another signed to fill middle innings, and two old starters years removed from their prime.
Anyone want to trade that off-season for this one?
Before answering that, here's a quick reminder of what Cohen's club has done in the last few months:
Free agents: Catcher James McCann (4 years, $40.6 million); RHP Trevor May (2 years, $15.5 million); RHP Marcus Stroman (accepts qualifying offer, $18.9 million); RHP Sam McWilliams (1 year, 750k); IF Jose Martinez (1 year, $ 1 million); LHP Aaron Youp (1 year, $3 million); OF Albert Almora (1 year, $1.25 million); IF Jonathan Villar (1 year, $3.55 million); OF Kevin Pillar (1 year, $3.6 million, with a 2nd-year option).
Acquired by trade: SS Francisco Lindor, RHP Carlos Carrasco; LHP Joey Lucchesi; RHP Sean Reid-Foley; RHP Yennsy Diaz; LHP Jordan Yamamoto; OF Khalil Lee.
Yes, the Mets ought to pick up another pitcher for the rotation and one for the bullpen. But regardless, this year's front office won’t have to sell you on the return to Cy Young form of Rick Porcello.
If your expectations were that they'd grab all the stars, you might be disappointed. But here’s how you know this isn’t the same old Mets: This year, Dellin Betances is seen as a weak link in the bullpen — at best, a question mark.
Last year? He was considered a gift from Santa.
Some former Mets news…
⚾️ Left-hander Justin Wilson is joining the Yankees, per Sweeny Murti.
⚾️ Robinson Chirinos signed a minor league contract with the Yankees, per Ken Rosenthal.
⚾️ Bartolo Colon signed a one-year deal with Acereros de Monclova of the Mexican League.
⚾️ Meanwhile, the Marlins will allow 20% capacity (queue the attendance jokes) to start the season.
🔗 Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner talks about 2021 staff, via SNY: “It’s hard to put [how good the staff is] into words. This is my second year as a pitching coach, and I’ve been blessed with two really good starting rotations going into spring trainings.”
🔗 Diving In to Pete Alonso’s Desire to Master the Strike Zone, by Matt Musicologists, MetsMerized Online: “Remaining aggressive within the strike zone and cutting down on chasing non-strikes has a number of obvious domino-type effects on the rest of Alonso’s profile. Theoretically speaking, his swinging-strike rate will take a dive, his walk and strikeout rates will improve, and his quality-of-contact will head back in the right direction. It’ll also have a positive impact on the most important batted-ball event for the 26-year-old: fly balls.”
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