Good Morning,
Today we’ll talk about a Mets trade that was completed last night, plus a quiet opportunity to exploit the pitching market. But we start with the day’s news.
⏰ Catch me up on the latest trade news…
TRADE: The Mets got involved in another three-team trade (their second of the offseason) and secured outfield prospect Khalil Lee from the Royals, by giving up right-hander Josh Winckowski (recently acquired from the Steven Matz trade with Toronto) and a player to be named later to the Red Sox. The Mets piggy-backed on a larger deal that sends outfielder Andrew Benintendi from Boston to Kansas City for OF Franchy Cordero. To make roster space for Lee, New York designated catcher Ali Sánchez for assignment.
🍎 MATZ VALUE: This means the Amazins took a starter in Matz, whom they could have easily non-tendered a few months ago, and indirectly turned him into a Top-10 prospect in their system. Talk about turning 1 US dollar into a buck fifty Canadian.
⚾️ WHO IS LEE? He’s a 22-year-old prospect recently ranked 8th in the Royals’ system by MLB Pipeline (and jumps to 7th with the Mets). He has speed (swiping 53 bases in Double-A in 2019), power potential, and a 70-grade arm. Once considered the “most dynamic player” in KC’s organization since Eric Hosmer, his stock has dropped a bit due to poor instincts in the outfield and a strikeout rate of over 30 percent.
🏃♂️THE NEED FOR SPEED: Lee represents the latest attempt by the Mets to stock up on something they’d lacked — speed — along with signing Jonathan Villar this week, minor league free agent Mallex Smith earlier in the off-season, and of course, the massive trade for Francisco Lindor.
🎓 DEVELOPMENT: Scheduled to progress to Triple-A last season, Lee ended up at Kansas City’s alternate site due to the pandemic. While this made it difficult for outside scouts to track his development, Baseball America recently reported he made strides at the training site by “hunting specific pitches and staying out of two-strike counts,” as well as working with the Royals’ outfield coach to improve his defensive play. Unfortunately, those improvements didn’t translate in this year’s Puerto Rican Winter League, where Lee went 5-46 with 16 strikeouts in 12 games.
Other than recent first-rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong (who is only 18), the Mets had lacked young outfield talent in their farm system.
❓PTBNL: Everyone’s favorite trade piece, the vaunted players to be named later are significant in this deal since it wouldn’t make any sense for a prospect like Lee to come to the Mets for a pitcher like Winckowski. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom told reporters after the trade was announced that specific players haven’t yet been identified.
IN OTHER NEWS
✍️ SIGNING: The Mets made the signing of outfielder Albert Almora Jr. official on Wednesday. To make space for him on the 40-man roster, they designated RHP Corey Oswalt for assignment.
ROSTER SPACE: New York still needs to create one more 40-man roster spot to add Villar, their most-recent signing.
💰 CONTRACT DUMP: Andy Martino of SNY tweeted last night that rivals say the Mets have been trying to find takers for Dellin Betances’ and Jeurys Familia’s contracts.
🗣 TRADE TALKS: The Mets have talked to the Cubs and Reds at various points this winter about third basemen Kris Bryant and Eugenio Suárez, per Mike Puma. He notes both teams have pushed for catching prospect Francisco Alvarez.
🔝 TOP PLAYERS: MLB Network has revealed the first 40 players on their Top 100 Right Now ranking and three Mets — Brandon Nimmo (#89), Dom Smith (67) and Pete Alonso (66) — cracked the list so far.
🔝 PROSPECTS: Baseball America ranked the Mets 19th in their annual Organization Farm System Rankings. They landed 25th last year.
🏟 FANS: After Governor Cuomo announced fans can start returning to arenas on February 23rd with up to 10% capacity, the Mets released a statement: “It’s an encouraging first step toward us potentially welcoming fans back to Citi Field. We look forward to working with government officials to ensure that the return to the ballpark is safe and convenient for our fans.”
🏥 COVID: Steve Cohen was at Citi Field yesterday for another kind of opening ceremony, as it will become a vaccine site for essential workers and Queens residents. Speaking at the event, Cohen said, “Let's get vaccinated, and one other thing - Let's go Mets!"
📚 February 11, 1987: World Series MVP Ray Knight turns down the Mets’ one-year, $800,000 offer and signs with the Orioles.
A quiet chance to load up on pitching
🧑🏻🦱 by Blake Zeff
This time a week ago, many Mets fans were licking their chops, imagining a starting rotation of Jacob deGrom, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman — something even Bauer detractors had to admit sounded pretty good. Then Bauer bauered, and took his talents (and personality) to Los Angeles, infuriating half the fan base and relieving the other.
Now, with the benefit of almost a week to process the news, here’s where that leaves us:
The Mets still have a strong rotation of deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, Syndergaard (when he’s back) and David Peterson, plus a few less-established options (Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto, et al) vying to fill Thor’s slot until his return. Which means: the rotation is solid, but there are still innings that could stand to be filled from someone currently outside the organization.
The Mets showed their willingness to spend an additional $40 million on pitching this season that they did not end up spending, but still could. (Also, for those keeping track, the club is still roughly $28 million below the luxury tax threshold. More on this in a minute.)
The bullpen is improved, but still has question marks. The triumvirate of Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo and Trevor May theoretically gives you a solid late innings combo. And Aaron Loup (and maybe, at some point, professional-athlete-who-looks-like-a-dentist Jerry Blevins) gives you some left-handed balance. But at this point, once-dominant stoppers Jeurys Familia and Dellin Betances feel like coin tosses. And Brad Brach and Miguel Castro are capable major league relievers, but hardly lock-down options.
While outfield seemed like a pressing need as recently as a week or two ago, it now appears there won’t be a designated hitter in the National League this season — which means 1B/DH Dominic Smith is suddenly now LF Dominic Smith. And the Mets no longer have urgent interest — or even a position, really — for someone like CF Jackie Bradley, Jr. Plus, since they’ve now signed Albert Almora, it looks like they’ll be standing pat in the outfield unless the DH rule changes.
While no remaining free agent pitchers are close to Bauer’s level, there are still some legitimate assets in both the starter and bullpen markets. And with one week until pitchers and catchers report, their leverage is collapsing and there will be bargains to be had.
What this all means is that the Mets have money to spend, slots in their pitching staff to fill, fewer offensive needs to address (meaning, there’s nothing that needs to divert resources from bolstering their pitching), and some intriguing free agent pitchers from which to choose.
Let’s say the $40 million the Mets would’ve spent on Bauer was a special case — and Steve Cohen isn’t willing to drop that kind of coin on filling out a roster. We’re still talking about $28 million the club can spend before hitting the luxury tax. Give them a few million leeway to make some changes mid-season, and you’re still left with $20-25 million to burn this off-season. It’s like the baseball equivalent of Brewster’s Millions - what’s the best way to give this cash away over the next few weeks?
As you could probably surmise by this build-up, one option is pitching (both starting and relief). Some useful starters are still out there — like former Yankee James Paxton, former Twin Jake Odorizzi (who wanted a 3-year deal but clearly hasn’t gotten an offer close to his asking price), and former post-hype prospect Taijuan Walker.
How about taking a flyer on Paxton as your 4th or 5th starter? You can’t count on him to ever start 30 games a season, but when he does take the mound (he averaged 27 starts from 2017-2019), the guy is good. You’re talking about a lefty who gives you 5-6 innings a start, has routinely struck out 10-11 batters per 9 innings over the last few years, and has adequate control. For his career, Paxton is 57-33 with a 3.58 ERA (114 ERA+ and 3.31 FIP). Slot that into a rotation of deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, Paxton, Syndergaard/Peterson (with a few depth options behind them), and you’re onto something.
And what does Paxton cost at this point, coming off a 20-inning down year (a sample so small it means nothing, but deprives Paxton of gaudy stats with which to woo his suitors)? Three months ago, Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors predicted one year, $10 million. Paxton’s market has not developed, and he can’t be overly choosy at this point — which means $8-9 million might be more realistic now — but let’s go with $10 million, to stay conservative.
That leaves $10-15 million to address the bullpen. Sneakily, this was actually a year loaded with strong relief options. Off the board are late-inning arms like Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Alex Colome, Pedro Baez, and Blake Treinen. But still out there, are potential upgrades for the Mets, like former Braves closers Mark Melancon and Shane Greene, top 10 closer last year Trevor Rosenthal, and other legit options like Jeremy Jeffress and former Met Justin Wilson. Could you get a year of Rosenthal at maybe $8 million (MLB Trade Rumors had projected $14 million over 2 years), and one of Melancon at $4 million (as MLB Trade Rumors projected)?
Rosenthal, of course, had been left for dead recently, after completely wasted years recovering from Tommy John surgery. But the former top closer returned in the shortened 2020 to post elite ratios: 14.5 K/9, .0845 WHIP, 2.22 FIP and much improved control. While his .238 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is totally unsustainable, the righty would bring something else to Luis Rojas’ lefty-deficient bullpen: a history of dominating lefty batters, to the tune of a .207/.316/.256 reverse split.
As for Melancon, the stuff and underlying numbers are rarely pristine, but like Colome, he routinely (somehow) ends up getting major league batters out. He’s long past his days as an elite reliever (from 2013-2106, he was quietly among the best in the game - no, really, look it up) and the strikeout numbers have never dazzled, but the FIP and control are still fine, and Melancon has always kept the ball in the yard.
Take Rosenthal and Melancon, and suddenly, that’s a bullpen of Diaz, Lugo, Rosenthal, May, Melancon, Loup, plus two or three among Familia, Betances, Castro and Brach. (Maybe you prefer different free agents on the list from the ones I chose. That’s ok. Add them instead.) Throw on top of that the bolstered rotation we outlined before. And suddenly, you’ve spent around half the allotment for Bauer, while getting more balance across the staff, and way fewer annoying tweets.
The point is this: Pitching wins games. The Mets have money to spend. There are pitchers out there looking to sign contracts. The Mets should help them do that.
⚾️ The Dodgers and RHP Walker Buehler avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year, $8 million contract.
⚾️ Jed Lowrie signed a minor league contract with the Athletics. The former Met (does he count as one?) underwent surgery in October, but expects to be in a “good spot” for Spring Training.
⚾️ Free agent right-hander Mike Foltynewicz signed a $2 million, one-year contract with the Texas Rangers.
🔗 Mets roster projection a week before spring training?by Tim Britton, The Athletic: “A cap on pitchers at 13 that was supposed to take effect in 2020 has again been pushed back; teams can carry as many pitchers as they want, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Mets prioritized pitching depth and carried 14 pitchers for long stretches of the season.”
🔗 FanGraphs notes on the Mets’ projections, by Ben Clemens: “When we’ve poked fun at the Mets for not using their financial resources to go from intriguing to dominant, this is the kind of team we envisioned. It would be a shock if they don’t make the playoffs this year despite a deep division and strong Wild Card opposition.”
And we leave you with this fun, informative Marcus Stroman video…
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I just have this feeling that Cohen wants another move beyond a lottery ticket starter. I get the sense we will keep hearing Bryant rumors as I don’t get the sense the team wants to go with Davis as the everyday 3B.