The Metropolitan: A time to spend?

Lindor, Conforto & the future payroll. Plus, all the day’s news

Good Morning,

Today we’ll talk about how extending both Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto would impact the 2022 payroll. But we start with the news. 

⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…

🎉 OPENING DAY MAGIC NUMBER: 9. The Mets take on the Nationals on April 1.

🍎 TRIPLE PLAY: The Mets turned a 4-6-3 triple play in their 5-4 loss to the Astros on Monday.

• Even for a Spring Training game, it was sweet to see Jose Altuve line into the triple play with the bases loaded. José Peraza caught the ball for the Mets, before doubling off the runner at second by tossing it to Wilfredo Tovar, who completed the play by throwing out the other runner at first.

• While it won’t officially count, this is the second magnificent feat of the spring, following Luis Guillorme’s 22-pitch walk, which would have set a modern pitch count record if it happened in a real game. The Mets haven’t turned a triple play in a regular season contest since 2014.

🍕PIAZZA: Hall-of-Famer Mike Piazza didn’t let the pandemic stop him from making his annual trip to Mets camp on Monday. A few key takeaways:

• 9/11 CEREMONY: Piazza says he plans on attending the 20th anniversary ceremony scheduled for Citi Field when the Mets play the Yankees on 9/11 this season: “It’s going to be an emotional night,” said the hitter of probably the most poignant home run in franchise history.

• NEW OWNER: While Piazza hasn’t had the chance to meet Steve Cohen in person, he believes the Mets are in good hands: “It seems like [Cohen] has such a passion for the team [...] There is always going to be unforeseen circumstances where you have to make adjustments — in any business that is part of sports, but I think the fans should rest well knowing the team is in good hands and the future looks bright.”

• COOPERSTOWN: Piazza was seen chatting with Jacob deGrom to start his day, and later told reporters, “I think he does everything well and I think hopefully when the dust does settle he could be [in Cooperstown].”

• LINDOR: Piazza also chatted briefly with Francisco Lindor and talked about his experience being traded to the Mets and deciding to sign long-term. His advice to Lindor: “Just go out and play. Go out and play, put your numbers up, and if it’s meant to be, he’s going to be here.”

⚾️ ROTATION: Left-hander Joey Lucchesi continued to make his case for being included in the Mets’ rotation (in some form). He was hurt by the defense behind him and Jerry Blevins allowed two inherited runners to score, leading to a final line of 3 earned runs against 4 hits, 4 strikeouts and 0 walks in 3.1 innings of work.

• OPENER: Lucchesi sounded lukewarm to the idea of being used in tandem with an opener this season: “Honestly, I’ve never experienced that. But it’s out of my control, right? I’m just going to pitch and do my thing. I can’t really control that. I don’t really think bad of it. There’s nothing I can do about it.” We talked about why it could make sense to use Lucchesi as the actual opener yesterday.

🚀 LIFTOFF: Albert Almora Jr. hit a 3-run blast for his second home run of the spring. He has collected a hit in 4 of his last 5 games.

🌟GOLD STAR: Manager Luis Rojas raved about new catcher James McCann, “Outstanding catcher. Outstanding clubhouse guy. Teammate. True leader. A lot of positives.”

💰 NEGOTIATIONS: The Mets have made an offer on an extension to Michael Conforto, according to Jon Heyman, but he is not hearing much optimism a deal will get done yet. More on this topic below.

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📚 March 23, 1978: The Mets traded future manager Bud Harrelson to the Phillies for cash and minor leaguer Freddie Andrews, an infielder who would never play another game in the major leagues. Harrelson could have vetoed the trade, but chose to go Philadelphia to play for a contending team.

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Looking ahead to the 2022 payroll

🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone

Both Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto will eventually sign for a lot of money. Whether those checks are signed by Steve Cohen or one of the other owners from the handful willing to spend absurd amounts of money to improve their baseball team remains to be seen.

But since we are a Mets newsletter, and the weather is turning nice, and people are getting vaccinated, and Opening Day is less than two weeks away, let’s ride with the positive vibes and say that somehow both players will end up keeping 41 Seaver Way as their working address for many years to come.

How much they sign for and whether they sign before or after April 1 are each topics we could spend the rest of this newsletter discussing, but on this Tuesday morning, I want to focus on how signing both players to big-dollar extensions would impact the team’s 2022 payroll.

For simplicity, let’s assume Lindor signs a 10-years, $320 million contract; and Conforto fetches a 7-year, $175 million extension. Between the two, that is $57 million in average annual salary, or nearly $23 million more than both players are set to make in their final arbitration-eligible season.

This means when Robinson Cano comes back on the books in 2022, the Mets would absorb over $42 million in new payroll commitments without having added anything *new* other than the respect of a fanbase starving for the team to prove they are big market spenders and a 39-year-old second baseman who has been out of baseball for a year.

To understand how this impacts future spending beyond those players, we must first define a baseline using the current season. While it’s impossible to estimate the Mets’ exact payroll from my couch, using public data and some assumptions, I feel pretty confident I can at least get close to whatever Sandy Alderson’s budget person has calculated from their couch (as many of us continue to work from home, whether by design or not).

To save the nitty gritty details of how I came up with this number for another issue — perhaps on a Friday when you can read with a strong drink in hand — I project the Mets’ 2021 luxury tax payroll to be around $192.7 million.

Jumping off from that number and holding the rest of the roster constant — meaning pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players continue to progress up the service time ladder, and players signed to multi-year deals let another year tick off their contracts — the Mets can gain back some flexibility via the six players, other than Lindor and Conforto, who are set to become free agents in 2022.

Putting everything we have talked about together: By adding back Cano’s salary and including extension values for both Lindor and Conforto, while letting all six of their other free agents walk, the Mets would have approximately $181.7 million committed to their roster heading into the next offseason—and that assumes none of their arbitration-eligible players receive raises.

With the CBA set to expire in December, we don’t know what will happen to the luxury tax thresholds or whether they will exist at all in their current form, but assuming the owners don’t completely fold in negotiations, we can presume there will at least be a modest increase on the current $210 million initial tax line. Let’s say the number even jumps to $220 million. This would give the Mets close to $40 million in breathing room, given the scenario outlined above.

While that sounds like a lot, consider this: the Amazins spent over $25 million to sign James McCann, Trevor May, and Taijuan Walker this past winter. While I would argue why those moves could be significant (over a beer in a post-COVID local establishment), it shows you how quickly money goes, even if you are only shopping for bargain buys.

So while most of the team’s 2022 free agents could walk away without anyone missing them, if the Mets want to bring back either Marcus Stroman or Noah Syndergaard, it could leave them with very little wiggle room to improve their roster in other areas. Remember, teams try to enter the season with a luxury tax payroll $10-20 million below the threshold to allow for increases that inevitably come when players on split contracts earn more playing time or in-season acquisitions are made.

BOTTOM LINE: If the Mets find a way to re-sign both Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto, while it would blow up their payroll, it would also give them two cornerstone players in their primes who would make it so they don’t need to spend as much money in the future to improve their lineup. And with several of their core players — Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Dom Smith — are still under team control and making peanuts (relatively) for the next several seasons, the timing is convenient to go big on their two stars.

The question is what happens to the rotation? Would extending Lindor and Conforto mean trading for a cost controllable starter, or two? Does any of this even matter with Uncle Stevie footing the bill? We will find out.

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⚾️ Phillies’ opening day starter Aaron Nola looked sharp, allowing just one hit over six scoreless innings, while fanning nine Yankees (in a lineup full of regulars).

⚾️ Former Met Justin Wilson was pulled from the same game, leaving an appearance against the Phillies because of left shoulder tightness. He’s expected to get an MRI today.

⚾️ After rehabbing a broken thumb, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto could return to action as soon as today, giving him a week to prepare before opening day.

⚾️ Toronto’s new free agent closer Kirby Yates is expected to miss several weeks after injuring his right arm (flexor pronator).

⚾️ Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer surrendered three home runs in the fifth inning against Seattle last night.

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🔗 David Wright remembers ‘gracious’ Shannon Forde five years after passing, by Ken Davidoff, NY Post: “As we celebrate National Women’s History Month, with Opening Day approaching, it feels like a good time to remember and salute Shannon in writing, in addition to our standard conversation about her. She was, Wright said, “a team mom-type figure” who bolstered the Mets brand not only by putting the team’s players at ease — and therefore improving their performances on the field, Wright agreed — but also enhanced the organization by the way she represented it to media folks like myself as well as the other clubs in Major League Baseball.”

🔗 Mike Piazza’s defense was far more than his weak arm, by Bradford William Davis, NY Daily News: “MLB.com analyst Mike Petriello noted back in 2016 that Piazza’s framing, according to Baseball Prospectus’ catcher data, ranked him seventh all-time among catchers in saving runs dating back to 1988, with 137 over his 16-year career. Not with his arm, but his glove. (What a concept!)”

🔗 The Mets Should Blow Up The 2021 Draft, by Jarrett Seidler, Baseball Prospectus ($): “The Mets should blow up their draft bonus pool in 2021. They should go way, way past their cap, maybe a hundred million past—maybe even more […] Could the Mets actually float Leiter to the No. 10 pick? It’s worth a shot, I think. Back in 2012, Mark Appel was one of the top prospects in the draft and fell to the Pirates at No. 8 amidst high bonus demands even as a college player. The Pirates didn’t sign him, and he went first the next year as a college senior.”

🔗 How the Mets aim for a development win with Jacob Barnes, by Tim Britton, The Athletic ($): “Barnes enthusiastically adopted [Mets pitching coach Jeremy] Hefner’s suggestions during his offseason. He worked on holding that ride with his fastball even in games of catch. He tinkered with a change-up he had scrapped years earlier that could work well off a more elevated fastball.”

📺 And… former 20-game winner Frank “Sweet Music” Viola talks with Mets alumni guru Jay Horwitz about his time with the Mets as a player and coach, as well as his famous college rivalry with Ron Darling.

Thanks for reading! Follow us on Twitter for regular updates until tomorrow’s newsletter.

And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.