Good Morning,
Today we’ll talk about what the Mets do and don’t have in left-handed pitcher Joey Lucchesi. But we start with the news.
⏰ Catch me up on what happened over the weekend…
💰 EXTENSIONS: On a day when both Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto flashed their power against the Washington Nationals — each hitting a home run off Max Scherzer — the background chatter remained focused on their contracts.
$300 MILLION: According to Jon Heyman, the Mets are “willing to go to $300 million” to lock up Lindor long-term, but it “isn’t clear if they are there yet.” Lindor turned down a reported $200+ million offer from Cleveland before he was traded to the Mets. Andy Martino reported on Friday the Mets have made an offer just under $300MM with Lindor countering at well over that number.
TALKS: Meanwhile, Conforto confirmed to reporters on Sunday that he is engaged in contract talks with the Mets but wouldn’t go into specifics.
TICK TICK: Negotiations are about deadlines and consequence, which is why agents and teams often set an artificial deadline to get a deal done by Opening Day. Lindor has made it clear that he doesn’t want to negotiate into the season; and Conforto said yesterday, it wouldn’t be “ideal” to continue talks into April.
SUPPORT: Teammate Jacob deGrom — who signed a team-friendly, five-year $137.5 million extension in 2019 — hopes both Lindor and Conforto stay in Queens long-term: “Those two guys are great players, so you definitely want them around and want to be on the same team as them. It’s definitely something that I’m rooting for.”
I ❤️ NY: Conforto said he agreed with deGrom’s prior comments about being a Met forever, saying it would be “a cool thing to spend your entire career in one place.”
☀️ GAME RECAP: In a preview of the season opener, deGrom out-pitched Max Scherzer on Sunday, striking out 5 and walking two, while not allowing an earned run in 4.2 innings of work (deGrom’s spring ERA is now a sparkling 0.66). After the game, the Nats named Scherzer their Opening Day starter against the Mets on April 1.
④ SPOT: While it’s not official, in the wake of Carlos Carrasco’s hamstring injury (who the Mets are reportedly optimistic can return by Memorial Day), manager Luis Rojas endorsed left-hander David Peterson as the team’s 4th starter over the weekend, “I would say [Peterson] is in a really good position right now to be in that fourth spot in the rotation.”
COMPETING: Right-hander Corey Oswalt had been mentioned as possible rotation depth as the team needs starters to fill in for Carrasco, but he struggled in a relief appearance on Friday, giving up two long balls and 5 earned runs.
👍 A-OK: After being sidelined due to wrist soreness, Dominic Smith was back playing left field on Sunday and hit a double off Scherzer.
🔌 POWER: After a slow start to the spring, Francisco Lindor is on a power surge, with three home runs in his last four games, including a grand slam on Friday. He is 7 for his last 15 at the plate.
🤕 OUCH: As if the Mets needed this: Jeff McNeil was hit by a pitch three times (on the right wrist, right left, and left foot) during the Mets’ win over the Cardinals on Friday. However, he appeared to be fine.
✂️ CUTS: The Mets optioned seven more players on Friday, bringing their Spring Training roster size down to 44 players. The unsurprising cuts included RHP Yennsy Díaz, LHP Daniel Zamora, C Patrick Mazeika, C David Rodríguez, IF Jake Hager, IF Wilfredo Tover, and OF Johneshwy Fargas.
🌷FLOWERS: The Mets continue to monitor the market for a catcher who can act as a minor league back-up to Tomas Nído, with 35-year-old free agent Tyler Flowers being discussed, per Mike Puma.
💼 BOARD OF DIRECTORS: In a press release on Friday evening (in hopes nobody would notice?), the Mets announced former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Jeanne Melino will join the Mets’ Board of Directors, effective immediately. Melino will also be joining the Mets as Senior Vice President of the Amazin’ Mets Foundation and will be overseeing community engagement and diversity, equity and inclusion efforts for the team, according to the release.
CHRISTIE: “As a Mets fan for the last 53 years, I am looking forward to helping Steve, Alex and the New York Mets organization bring a great experience to Mets fans and the community.” Cohen previously donated generously to Christie’s presidential campaign.
📚 March 22, 1962: The Mets beat the Yankees, 4-3, in the first-ever game between the New York rivals. Manager Casey Stengel, desperately wanting to beat his old club, is elated when Richie Ashburn delivers a 9th inning pinch-hit single to give the #Mets the walk-off win
Searching for a third pitch
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
Joey Lucchesi will take the mound today for the Mets in his second start of the spring and first since Carlos Carrasco suffered a hamstring injury that has opened the door for the recently acquired left-hander to make the rotation.
To understand Lucchesi is to understand what he is not. His best pitch looks like a curveball, but it isn’t; and it spins like a change-up, but it isn’t. And he might start games for the Mets this season, even though he might not be a typical starter, as the team considers using him in a role that has become more popular in baseball in recent seasons, called an opener.
What Joey Lucchesi is is a pitcher without a third pitch. So for all of the talk about “churves” and “openers,” the long-term success of the 27-year-old southpaw will depend on whether he can find another way to get opposing hitters out when his sinker and breaking ball aren’t working.
We have his career numbers to give us a hint, and they look about as good as Steven Matz’s over the last few full seasons; I will let you decide if you think that is good or bad.
If you think these numbers are somewhat good, his effectiveness can be attributed to his low-spin curveball (“churve”) that generates a whiff rate in the 40 percent range. It is a fun pitch to watch, from his unique delivery and high release point, to the way it baffles hitters when it crosses the plate.
To offset his churve, he relies on a heavy fastball, which is the only pitch in his arsenal that he consistently commands for strikes. When those two pitches are working well together, he can get the job done, at least a few times through the order, which is why he becomes an ideal candidate as an opener. If he only faces a batter once or twice in a game, he doesn’t need a third pitch to be successful: his delivery and churve provide deception and their unique look could throw hitters off when trying to re-adjust to another arm slot that would follow him out of the bullpen.
But if Lucchesi wants (or needs) to become more than just a pitcher with a cool pitch who can get 12-15 outs on a day when he has his best stuff, a third pitch is necessary. This is where his cutter comes into play, which, as is the theme with Lucchesi, is best described by explaining what it is not.
You could really call his cutter a “futter” since its ride and lack of movement almost resemble a 4-seam fastball. Lucchesi throws the pitch with a similar spin direction as his sinker, which is why the two pitches almost resemble each other until his sinker follows a slightly different path. While this might seem like his cutter is an ideal pairing with his sinker — pitch that neither zips nor rises nor cuts doesn’t offset another — it just becomes a bad pitch right now. Opposing hitters have a .330/.381/.543 slash line against it since 2018.
But are we missing something in analyzing Lucchesi as a traditional pitcher? What if instead of looking at his churve as one pitch, we considered it as two? In other words, if Lucchesi can manipulate the way he releases his patented offering, as he has talked about in the past, he can create slightly different movement profiles, and thus keep hitters off balance as they try to figure out whether they are seeing a change-up or a curveball or something they have never seen before. Add the velocity gap from his sinker and cutter, and the movement variance he naturally creates between those two faster pitches, and you might have something.
Given the club’s sudden need for innings on the front end, the Mets, and the rest of the league, will probably find out very soon.
⚾️ Catcher Salvador Pérez reportedly signed a 4-year, $82 million extension with Kansas City, making it the richest deal in Royals’ history.
⚾️ Former free agent James Paxton tossed 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball for the Mariners on Sunday. He also touched 96 on the radar gun, while fanning eight.
⚾️ Angels’ two-way star Shohei Ohtani allowed only one run in four innings on the mound on Sunday, while also reaching base three times at the plate as the leadoff hitter.
⚾️ Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager roped his league-leading sixth home run this spring on Sunday. The potential 2022 free agent is hitting over .400.
🔗 How Jacob deGrom's velocity increases even as his age does, by Buster Olney, ESPN: “This generation's ultimate pitcher's body might belong to the Mets' Jacob deGrom — 6-foot-4 and angular, a human rubber band with flexibility and elasticity. Even at 32 years old, he still seems to be finding physiological levers that enable him to throw a little harder and make the ball move a little more. Second baseman Jeff McNeil acknowledged that after deGrom throws a good fastball, McNeil will turn and peek at the scoreboard to see a velocity reading. The other day, deGrom's fastball was clocked at 102 mph.”
🔗 New Mets pitcher Taijuan Walker searched out data to rejuvenate career, by Greg Joyce, NY Post: “Walker dove head-first into the technology and numbers provided by Driveline, the analytics-based player development organization with its own biomechanics lab. Walker started by getting a full comprehensive assessment: a physical evaluation; force-plate testing; a breakdown of his arsenal; and getting markered up for motion capture as he threw a short bullpen session.”
🔗 Carlos Carrasco remains upbeat despite hamstring injury, by Deesha Thosar, NY Daily News: “Frustrated is not a big word for me,” Carrasco said. “I’ve been through a lot. This is nothing for me. I’m just going to get ready and pitch.” Carrasco was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia in 2019. There was cancer in his blood. He was faced with the biggest challenge of his life to that point, and it remains a useful moment of perspective for him. Carrasco, riddled with chemo treatments and a myriad of energy-depleting medical exams, fought his way back to the mound in 2020.
And we leave you with Keith Hernandez’ thoughts on the Mets’ third base situation…
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