Dec 23, 2022·edited Dec 23, 2022Liked by Jeffrey Bellone
I think the part that is generally missing from the Steve Cohen/Mets conversation in the media -- and certainly the baseball blogs written by teenagers -- is that owning the NY Mets is a business investment.
He bought the Mets for $1.5 billion.
A sports franchise in the media capital of the world is a rare and valuable item. However, these Mets were run poorly for decades and decades. Underperforming, undervalued.
Think of the Wilpon-Mets as a restaurant on the Upper East Side. It's not terrible. Great location but it's not clean, can't keep the chef, the food is only okay, decor is dreary.
Now imagine that you had money to invest and you recognized the potential of the place. What would you do with it? And when would you do it?
Well, I think a smart owner with deep pockets would rip it up and start over. Bring in the best chef possible. New furniture, a beautiful mahogany bar, delicious cocktails, great staff, etc. It would be a brand new place and it would be designed to make money.
My gut says the Mets franchise is going to be worth a lot more than what Steve paid for it -- and very quickly. He's not a dummy. He's not trying destroy baseball. He's making an investment in the NY Mets and it's going to pay off in countless different ways. Because the previous owners were idiots. They had it and they blew it with their incompetence. They owned a NY baseball team and couldn't figure out what to do with it -- even after Steinbrenner had already provided the template. Spend money, build a winner, build a brand, and watch the value of the franchise appreciate.
One other thing that is lost is that the moves have all been sound from a baseball perspective. He let Jake, Bassitt, and Walker all go to higher bidders. Sought out good deals with Ottavino, Robertson, Quintana. Trades for Raley. Works the margins for guys like Curtiss, Greene, Hernandez. Makes a gamble on Senga for what could turn out to be very reasonable money. Retains Nimmo & Diaz at market value. And so on.
I've talked about this with my friends for years. What would a rich guy, a smart guy, do if he bought the NY Mets from the Wilpons? Stick with the old menu? No. You'd go big. Under New Ownership!
All perfect points. He could lose $200 million per season and make it all back in franchise valuation. Plus all the other things he wants to do around Citi Field and the additional business opportunities this opens for him.
Agree. And i thought of the Steinbrenner template as well. Yankees were downtrodden when he bought them-poor teams and attendance to match. Look at them now.
Great analysis. Thinking the same. Those quotes by an un-named official and an un named executive in a un-named front offices is great twitter fodder, but otherwise worthless. Great reporting by Mr. Drellich.
There will be no consequences. Because Cohen is playing within the rules and his rights. He is paying the penalties. We lost our draft position. Once that occurred, it’s strictly money penalties, and Cohen recognizes that assembling the best team he can is worth paying those fines or taxes or premiums or whatever you want to call it. The only other option was to concede the season. Which is a punishment to the players already committed to this season with the limited resource of the short windows of their careers, and more importantly, the fans. Who have suffered long for this franchise due to the austerity of the Wilpons, who recently cashed out on this $2.5B franchise.
The contracts of Nimmo, DeGrom, Bassitt, Walker, Lugo, May, Givens, Williams, Diaz, Ottavino ALL expired. The Mets needed to field a team. Those guys or their substitutes all earned the right to be paid market rates for their abilities. The Mets paid market rates. Teams that are unwilling to do so, find less tenured players and try to exploit their talents on the cheap. And that’s ethical? That’s somehow more virtuous? In a free market, veterans players who put in their time and still have the abilities, usually more, are supposed to just take less?
Not sure I agree on Baty. He projects as adequate at best as a 3B and he's not there yet. He may have an elite bat so you want to work him into the lineup. And I don't see any reason why he can't play RF. He has a gun for an arm-I saw a clip of him in AAA throwing a laser to the plate to cut down a runner.
I wasn’t that enamored but what I saw from him at third either in his short ML taste, or in a particular inning that Scherzer pitched in rehab at Syracuse. He looks clunky. I think he ought to try the outfield and we can see what we’ve got. The hope is that bat is gonna be better than the run of the mill corner outfielders still available. I don’t think any all star corner outfielders were had on the cheap. And our corner outfielders are old. That’s where openings are gonna develop.
But trading him for a top pitching prospect makes a ton of sense too. I’ll bet that’s easier said than done. Prospect for prospects deals seem to make sense, but they never happen. I suspect it’s because the smarty pants front office guys don’t trust each other and worry about “losing” the trade.
Steven Matz or Zack Wheeler for Javy Baez never happened, remember?
Thanks for acknowledging that the fact that Correa played poorly for a few weeks after injuring his ankle is not particularly illuminating. I imagine close analysis of the data shows similar post injury struggles to the time he jammed his thumb, strained his shoulder, and had a stomach flu.
And I love the part about the bruise from ball fouled off the the LEFT ankle. Im sure his Right ankle injury from 2 years earlier set him up for that one!!
I'm interested in your opinion as to how ALL THIS impacts the future of Alonso and McNeil. I hoped that SC would sign them to long-term deals this off-season but that doesn't seem likely now. If you wait until 2024 they are only one season away from free agency.
I think this offseason proves to everyone in baseball that Cohen will make you a fair offer if you want to play here. Because of that, I don’t think the Mets have to worry as much as other teams about locking guys up before they hit free agency. They are less concerned about the cost savings and they will be major players to re-sign them in free agency. The value they gain by waiting is flexibility and more data points.
Great points. Although I think they have enough data points on McNeil. He’s 30 and they know what he is. He’s gonna be solid for a while and will likely very gradually diminish. I expect them to lock him up this season on a deal similar to Nimmo’s, perhaps 3M lower in AAV by virtue of his still being two years away from FA, and the fact that he isn’t a Boras client: 8 years $150M for the NL Batting Champion squirrel-of-all-trades.
Alonso seems to be projecting well, but it would be wise to collect the data points. He’s a slugger and it will be a huge commitment he’s after even if they do it now, as he’s already making big money on his arbitration deals. And sometimes sluggers don’t age well. But I’d be happy if they lock him up for the next 10 seasons at $260M. He’s entering his age 28 so he’ll be a decent bet for most of that. But will he be one of those “bet on himself” guys? I’d bet on that. I think he wants to prove he’s as good as Judge, and he’ll wait it out unless they exceed 10 years $300M.
I love the idea of a long term core. And both of these guys are part of that. Go to war with Nimmo, Lindor, Correa, McNeil, Alonso and hopefully Alvarez and Baty for the next decade. Atlanta’s gonna have a long term core too. It could be epic stuff.
I believe the major take away from the past year, as it relates to Alonso & McNeil, is that we never again have to worry about losing our fan-favorites to the FA process because of 'cost' concerns. Steve Cohen has shown that he is more than "just" a team owner; he is a team "fan" who embraces Met history (Ols Timers Day) and wishes to enhance it (retaining Nimmo & Diaz, keeping every single prospect).
The days of losing Strawberry, Wheeler, etc are over. Dead & buried. Pete Alonso & Jeff McNeil will be Mets for life. When they retire, Pete at least, will top nearly every single Met All-Time offensive record and have his # retired. As an historically great HR hitter, he has a chance to have a Hall of Fame career ... as a lifetime Met.
I wanted to wait for Ohtani then we signed Correa and I changed to go get him now and after reading this I’m back to be patient. Thank you. Excellent insight per usual.
Let’s see how both teams are playing at the trade deadline and if it matches up for both of us you make the trade. My primary reason being if you can add a top 5 player u do anything necessary, avoid the bidding war and lock him up long term at 50 mill per year or whatever he’s going to get.
I think the part that is generally missing from the Steve Cohen/Mets conversation in the media -- and certainly the baseball blogs written by teenagers -- is that owning the NY Mets is a business investment.
He bought the Mets for $1.5 billion.
A sports franchise in the media capital of the world is a rare and valuable item. However, these Mets were run poorly for decades and decades. Underperforming, undervalued.
Think of the Wilpon-Mets as a restaurant on the Upper East Side. It's not terrible. Great location but it's not clean, can't keep the chef, the food is only okay, decor is dreary.
Now imagine that you had money to invest and you recognized the potential of the place. What would you do with it? And when would you do it?
Well, I think a smart owner with deep pockets would rip it up and start over. Bring in the best chef possible. New furniture, a beautiful mahogany bar, delicious cocktails, great staff, etc. It would be a brand new place and it would be designed to make money.
My gut says the Mets franchise is going to be worth a lot more than what Steve paid for it -- and very quickly. He's not a dummy. He's not trying destroy baseball. He's making an investment in the NY Mets and it's going to pay off in countless different ways. Because the previous owners were idiots. They had it and they blew it with their incompetence. They owned a NY baseball team and couldn't figure out what to do with it -- even after Steinbrenner had already provided the template. Spend money, build a winner, build a brand, and watch the value of the franchise appreciate.
One other thing that is lost is that the moves have all been sound from a baseball perspective. He let Jake, Bassitt, and Walker all go to higher bidders. Sought out good deals with Ottavino, Robertson, Quintana. Trades for Raley. Works the margins for guys like Curtiss, Greene, Hernandez. Makes a gamble on Senga for what could turn out to be very reasonable money. Retains Nimmo & Diaz at market value. And so on.
I've talked about this with my friends for years. What would a rich guy, a smart guy, do if he bought the NY Mets from the Wilpons? Stick with the old menu? No. You'd go big. Under New Ownership!
This all strikes me as very smart.
All perfect points. He could lose $200 million per season and make it all back in franchise valuation. Plus all the other things he wants to do around Citi Field and the additional business opportunities this opens for him.
Agree. And i thought of the Steinbrenner template as well. Yankees were downtrodden when he bought them-poor teams and attendance to match. Look at them now.
Great analysis. Thinking the same. Those quotes by an un-named official and an un named executive in a un-named front offices is great twitter fodder, but otherwise worthless. Great reporting by Mr. Drellich.
There will be no consequences. Because Cohen is playing within the rules and his rights. He is paying the penalties. We lost our draft position. Once that occurred, it’s strictly money penalties, and Cohen recognizes that assembling the best team he can is worth paying those fines or taxes or premiums or whatever you want to call it. The only other option was to concede the season. Which is a punishment to the players already committed to this season with the limited resource of the short windows of their careers, and more importantly, the fans. Who have suffered long for this franchise due to the austerity of the Wilpons, who recently cashed out on this $2.5B franchise.
The contracts of Nimmo, DeGrom, Bassitt, Walker, Lugo, May, Givens, Williams, Diaz, Ottavino ALL expired. The Mets needed to field a team. Those guys or their substitutes all earned the right to be paid market rates for their abilities. The Mets paid market rates. Teams that are unwilling to do so, find less tenured players and try to exploit their talents on the cheap. And that’s ethical? That’s somehow more virtuous? In a free market, veterans players who put in their time and still have the abilities, usually more, are supposed to just take less?
Not sure I agree on Baty. He projects as adequate at best as a 3B and he's not there yet. He may have an elite bat so you want to work him into the lineup. And I don't see any reason why he can't play RF. He has a gun for an arm-I saw a clip of him in AAA throwing a laser to the plate to cut down a runner.
Good points. If he’s truly an elite hitter, then you play him where he fits. I guess my point is there’s no reason to force that right now.
I wasn’t that enamored but what I saw from him at third either in his short ML taste, or in a particular inning that Scherzer pitched in rehab at Syracuse. He looks clunky. I think he ought to try the outfield and we can see what we’ve got. The hope is that bat is gonna be better than the run of the mill corner outfielders still available. I don’t think any all star corner outfielders were had on the cheap. And our corner outfielders are old. That’s where openings are gonna develop.
But trading him for a top pitching prospect makes a ton of sense too. I’ll bet that’s easier said than done. Prospect for prospects deals seem to make sense, but they never happen. I suspect it’s because the smarty pants front office guys don’t trust each other and worry about “losing” the trade.
Steven Matz or Zack Wheeler for Javy Baez never happened, remember?
LF. Right field belongs to Marte. At least for now. Nobody plays it better.
Thanks for acknowledging that the fact that Correa played poorly for a few weeks after injuring his ankle is not particularly illuminating. I imagine close analysis of the data shows similar post injury struggles to the time he jammed his thumb, strained his shoulder, and had a stomach flu.
And I love the part about the bruise from ball fouled off the the LEFT ankle. Im sure his Right ankle injury from 2 years earlier set him up for that one!!
This is why you are a DMD, you can tell your right from your left lol. Glad the point came across. There’s nothing to worry about with his ankle.
Ha! (Super embarrassing when I do confuse R and L. Usually catch my mistake before causing permanent damage 😉)
I'm interested in your opinion as to how ALL THIS impacts the future of Alonso and McNeil. I hoped that SC would sign them to long-term deals this off-season but that doesn't seem likely now. If you wait until 2024 they are only one season away from free agency.
I think this offseason proves to everyone in baseball that Cohen will make you a fair offer if you want to play here. Because of that, I don’t think the Mets have to worry as much as other teams about locking guys up before they hit free agency. They are less concerned about the cost savings and they will be major players to re-sign them in free agency. The value they gain by waiting is flexibility and more data points.
Great points. Although I think they have enough data points on McNeil. He’s 30 and they know what he is. He’s gonna be solid for a while and will likely very gradually diminish. I expect them to lock him up this season on a deal similar to Nimmo’s, perhaps 3M lower in AAV by virtue of his still being two years away from FA, and the fact that he isn’t a Boras client: 8 years $150M for the NL Batting Champion squirrel-of-all-trades.
Alonso seems to be projecting well, but it would be wise to collect the data points. He’s a slugger and it will be a huge commitment he’s after even if they do it now, as he’s already making big money on his arbitration deals. And sometimes sluggers don’t age well. But I’d be happy if they lock him up for the next 10 seasons at $260M. He’s entering his age 28 so he’ll be a decent bet for most of that. But will he be one of those “bet on himself” guys? I’d bet on that. I think he wants to prove he’s as good as Judge, and he’ll wait it out unless they exceed 10 years $300M.
I love the idea of a long term core. And both of these guys are part of that. Go to war with Nimmo, Lindor, Correa, McNeil, Alonso and hopefully Alvarez and Baty for the next decade. Atlanta’s gonna have a long term core too. It could be epic stuff.
I believe the major take away from the past year, as it relates to Alonso & McNeil, is that we never again have to worry about losing our fan-favorites to the FA process because of 'cost' concerns. Steve Cohen has shown that he is more than "just" a team owner; he is a team "fan" who embraces Met history (Ols Timers Day) and wishes to enhance it (retaining Nimmo & Diaz, keeping every single prospect).
The days of losing Strawberry, Wheeler, etc are over. Dead & buried. Pete Alonso & Jeff McNeil will be Mets for life. When they retire, Pete at least, will top nearly every single Met All-Time offensive record and have his # retired. As an historically great HR hitter, he has a chance to have a Hall of Fame career ... as a lifetime Met.
Have no fear, our Mets are in good hands.
Like the article. I firmly believe he will pay Pete and McNeil whatever they want. Pete is one of the most popular Mets ever!!!
I wanted to wait for Ohtani then we signed Correa and I changed to go get him now and after reading this I’m back to be patient. Thank you. Excellent insight per usual.
Let’s see how both teams are playing at the trade deadline and if it matches up for both of us you make the trade. My primary reason being if you can add a top 5 player u do anything necessary, avoid the bidding war and lock him up long term at 50 mill per year or whatever he’s going to get.