The best stat for staying the course is the record for +/-6 innings pitched by SPs. The long term plan they've discussed is designed to develop or acquire enough SPs or RPs to address that, just hopefully not at such an expense or with people who carry lots of variance in production. As long as there's a a continued level of accountability to what is or is not working (by all parties) and not a bunch of platitudes or deflections promising something different instead, I'm fine with however the season goes from here. Don't need anyone to be fired, just own there's a problem. That being said I'm never going to like Buck, but I can grumble less going forward, lol.
Eppler owning he built a roster that isn't working and being open to selling at the deadline and not hoping of injured players to come back to justify inaction is enough a change in the trade winds for me from ownership/FO that tells me Sandy's hands aren't on the steering wheel anymore and I have confidence we can move forward.
Well thought out and expressed, Lee: “As long as there's a a continued level of accountability to what is or is not working (by all parties) and not a bunch of platitudes or deflections promising something different instead”
But I am worried that Buck is not someone who learns from his mistakes. Just once, please, say “yeah, if I could have that one back ...” or something like that. He really seems to do the same thing that’s not working over and over. Infuriating as a fan.
So 6 inning starts win games. If that gets pointed out enough, it gets out there into the Met ecosphere, I worry that the goal will become a directive which will become “stick with the starter through 6, regardless of what’s happening in the game, and remove him after 6, again, regardless”. They do realize the meaning of the statistic is that they are containing the other teams offense for the first 6 innings of the game, thus minimizing the opportunities for the other team to face Jimmy Yacabonis, et al. I’d like to see the piggyback starter, or the opener tried. It should work just as well. Peterson hopefully won’t revert. We know what he is capable of. Lucchessi too. Carrasco. Megill. These guys may not be frontline starters, but they are a hell of a lot better than Jeff Brigham. Once we have Quintana back, and hopefully none of the other starters injured, can we please see what it looks like to have our best 13 pitchers on the active roster at the same time? It’s not that complicated. 9 innings in a ballgame. Use the best pitchers you have!
In fairness, Buck admitted his mistake in the Zach Britton affair in addressing his team at the start of spring training the next season. Of course,, that doesn't mean his judgment necessarily got any better ...
I think it means they only have a few competent pitchers to cover 2/3 of the game. the offense scores 6+ and they get 3 solo homers in the 8/9 innings you win but the era sucks. we need more competence and ability to get to the 7th or 8th. even if diaz were healthy the games are lost by the 7th. either get starters there, find good pairings to so openers, or improve middle relief.
I don't believe you have to have the starter go 6 to win. see the rays for the last decade. you have to competently get to the last 6 or 9 outs before you go to closers or introduce low leverage people. Mets can't do that right now or next year likely at this point.
as for buck, he's not the manager in 2023 and if he is then he's fired midseason. stage is set pending Cohen's presser and the rest of this season for a transition to Chavez or Beltran by 2024 or 2025
I don’t think the 529 WAR analysis of managers is that useful or that it applies here because it is an aggregate metric. What matters are the big individual moments/decisions in a big games and Buck consistently fails at these (Orioles in 2016); end of 2022 Mets; and the horrible loss to the Phillies a few days ago. Buck might win the popularity contest with players but he has never won a World Series. I don’t think it is a wise investment to expect a different outcome with this Mets team.
It’s interesting that there is a 529 WAR analysis of managers. Personally, I’m not exactly a WAR devotee. To my view there are simply too many variables at play that affect a games’ outcome for these mathematicians to assemble a single (proprietary) algorithm that combines so many separate statistics of individuals who are not performing without the context of the rest of the players on the field. A bit too much of an act of faith.
I agree, Ben, that what we see that matters are those big individual moments. But as viewers we are not privy to what goes on in the moments between manager and player, whether on the field, in the dugout, in the locker room, the office or perhaps even at a social event outside of work.
Remember that time a young deGrom had perhaps his most humiliating comeuppance, knocked out of a game, and the TV cameras captured Terry, arm around him, speaking quietly in the ear of the teary eyed player? We can imagine what was said, we can speculate on how it may or may not have helped deGrom, ultimately improved his WAR, if you will.
Who knows what differences the manager ultimately makes? I do suspect their affects on the outcome of the games is more than just their decisions regarding the lineup and substitutions.
By the way, I’m on team “Fire Buck”. He’s destroying this season.
It should be very interesting to hear Steve Cohen's remarks today. I didn't think he would rage-fire anyone in mid-season - that's not his thing, but Eppler's remarks yesterday are the physical embodiment of that popular meme "This is fine" as the blaze roars on. I'll ride it out as I have done for decades of bad teams, but the reckoning must come in the off-season. According to the Mets, the manager, coaches, GM, and even the players are all exactly what they want, so "This is fine".
There's nothing else anyone can say. A lot of what we're witnessing is guys being professionally bland with the media. Nobody thinks it's fine. They seems to recognize that there's no benefit to second-guessing themselves or raking colleagues over the coals. Stiff upper lip. Play the games. See what happens.
I've never agreed with your Peterson analysis. To me, it's always been about his ability to throw strikes with the fastball, get ahead of hitters. Everything plays off that.
He's such a confounding talent, much like Matz for me. On games when they are on, I'd come away convinced that I've just seen a 16-game winner. A LHP who has all the tools. And then, both of them, would go through horrible stretches. It seemed like they were soft, didn't have the mental fortitude. Would nibble, fall behind, and not have the pure stuff to overcome that deficit. In both cases, I was confident they'd have great success in the future. The Peterson we saw last night was the guy I thought should be the starter this season. I felt he was ready to make the leap.
For all the talk about replacing the '92/'93 Mets as the "worst team money could buy," there is one huge difference between the two squads. That bunch under Jeff Torborg failed miserably out of the gate, and were never competitive. This year's team, with the same manager, essentially the same offense and defense and roughly equivalent with pitching other than Diaz of course, has already proved they can win, maybe not to the point of another 101 wins, but at least 90 which gets you into the October tournament. But outside of the first 21 games, they have appeared enduringly listless or lifeless, almost like they are overcome by a haze of self-doubt. Perhaps somewhere in their minds, they say we won 101 games and built a huge lead, STILL couldn't win the division, and then were out in a flash in the playoffs - God, what is it going to take? That leads to a defeatist attitude which often carries over to the next season. Rest assured this group started doubting themselves as they left Atlanta last September, and then were left to contemplate their quick out vs SD - and totaling one measly hit against a good but hardly great starter in the elimination game - for the whole off-season. Then there was the Diaz injury which the players even admit was demoralizing. I mean, given that they hit when they don't pitch - losing 7 (!) games when they scored 6 runs or more - while also failing to hit when they pitch, and now have trouble in the field, it feels like a group that knows what it can do, but is frustrated and stalled by a mental block. If you think about it, it's really the only explanation for seven games under .500 that makes sense.
Off-Topic: File Under, "Why the Mets Farm System Is in a Shambles."
Last July, the Mets traded two young prospects for Tyler Naquin. An oft-injured, poor fielding outfielder who would fill a minor role for the Mets moving forward. This is the kind of guy you trade for, pick up his salary, and give the Reds a bum in exchange.
However, one of the guys we sent over is a 19-year-old outfielder with a .955 OPS in A-ball, Hector Junior Rodriguez.
This cannot happen.
It cannot happen.
Now before we crucify Billy Eppler, let's be realistic. He doesn't intimately know every guy in the system. He's talking to the guys on the field, the coaches, the scouts, the manager. And obviously, nobody said, "You can't trade this kid for a borderline rental. No way."
So Eppler, on advice, made an obscene trade for Tylor Naquin. Who sucks and who the Reds didn't even need.
How can the Mets have a SYSTEM in place that allows this trade to happen? How do we not know our own players? A team must know it's own players. We have the best view. This is where the Braves always excel. They know how they've got, they know who is over-hyped. They don't trade away future stars for bums.
So fixing the farm system is not about having a good draft or two. It's not trading veteran talent for prospects. It's about have dozens of high-quality employees (scouts, evaluators, analysts, coaches) working intelligently, in unison.
Yes, Eppler is responsible for that horrible trade, among others. But who is advising him on these players? What the hell is going on that such a trade could be possible.
Note: The other guy the Mets included is a very young pitcher who might also have some success. Not a bum.
>> Daytona Tortugas (Reds) outfielder Hector Rodriguez batted .357/.394/.612 and led the league in hits (35), runs (23), triples (four), slugging percentage (.612) and OPS (1.006). He was second in average (.357) and total bases (60). He recorded nine multi-hit games and hit safely in 21 of 23 May games, including a 13-game hitting streak from May 16-31. Rodriguez, 19, was originally signed by New York (NL) as an international free agent out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, on January 15, 2021. He was traded to Cincinnati in the 2022 trade that sent Tyler Naquin and Phillip Diehl to the Mets. <<
Spot on Jimmy. I’ve been saying this (far less eloquently) for a few weeks now. We draft adequately. It’s everything else about player development and “asset management” that we stink at. It’s why I’ve been calling for a trade of Parada, our #1 prospect this season, to improve our pitching this season.
And why I am not at all concerned about losing 10 places in draft position as punishment for exceeding the luxury tax. Plenty of good players left to draft (and sign internationally). It’s what you do with them next that matters.
I’d wait to see what they do for the next month. But if they are back to playing well and have a winning record by about July 20 and are looking like they are a good shot at a wildcard, I’d trade the prospect for a legit starting pitcher or maybe 3 legit bullpen arms on an expiring contract. Absolutely.
Parada is a highly ranked prospect who plays a position where we already have our future star just starting out. He’s worth a ton to a rebuilding team that’s looking to compete in 3-4 years.
It’s not gonna happen. Eppler said as much. I think he’s wrong about only trading a prospect for someone with control. There is nothing risky about trading for a guy and if you like him sign him to come back. It’s a great low commitment try out.
Maybe Lucas Giolito or Eduardo Rodriguez. There’s guys.
It’s not really fair (but we all do it) to make these analogies between players. I get it.
Looking back so far on Peterson’s brief career, he’s shown unremarkable but steady progress between his 2020 premier (under those very unusual circumstances) and the end of last season. He missed such a large part of 2021 due to a freak injury happening before he returned from a normal injury, so really he’s early early early in his career. Called up after a 60 game season started, out for most of the next year, and successful when given the chance after others ahead of him on the depth chart were injured the following season.
And then he was lights out in spring training, grabbing a spot in the rotation.
And then he stunk and was demoted.
It could be growing pains. Maybe we don’t know what this guy is gonna be.
I think it’s a far cry from what we know about Steven Matz. He had his chance. He’s 32 years old. He’s an inconsistent pitcher who is likely well past his prime.
I remain hopeful about Peterson. He looked great last night. I think confidence comes from success. And a bad streak like he’s been on this season, so early in his career, is very likely in his head.
Let’s hope he’s gonna continue to grow and be a reliable contributor.
Very funny tweet by Michael Baron regarding Eppler’s corporate speak. I’m very happy JB gave us this synopsis of his press conference yesterday, so I don’t have to wade through his gobbledegook roundabout way of expressing fairly simple thoughts. Too much work.
Great edition today ! Chuck full of insight. After reading Peter's and JB's views on the state of state of the Mets coaches i'm just going t sit "tight". I didnt watch Peterson's game figuring he would stink up the place and got burned. I also will not get sucked into thinking "this is the game to get them going". Best thing right now with the NHL draft and Football right around the corner just sit tight !
Steve, I havent watched the last 5 games. I'm still following the team, but i just cant dedicate 3 hours of my day to them at this point. They have done nothing but embarrass themselves since May.
I follow the Mets very closely, have since I was 7 years old. Love the reading and analysis. But in terms of watching games, that comes and goes, depending on circumstances. I generally don't believe in sitting in a chair watching TV for hours every night. The faster games have helped a lot.
The best stat for staying the course is the record for +/-6 innings pitched by SPs. The long term plan they've discussed is designed to develop or acquire enough SPs or RPs to address that, just hopefully not at such an expense or with people who carry lots of variance in production. As long as there's a a continued level of accountability to what is or is not working (by all parties) and not a bunch of platitudes or deflections promising something different instead, I'm fine with however the season goes from here. Don't need anyone to be fired, just own there's a problem. That being said I'm never going to like Buck, but I can grumble less going forward, lol.
Eppler owning he built a roster that isn't working and being open to selling at the deadline and not hoping of injured players to come back to justify inaction is enough a change in the trade winds for me from ownership/FO that tells me Sandy's hands aren't on the steering wheel anymore and I have confidence we can move forward.
Well thought out and expressed, Lee: “As long as there's a a continued level of accountability to what is or is not working (by all parties) and not a bunch of platitudes or deflections promising something different instead”
But I am worried that Buck is not someone who learns from his mistakes. Just once, please, say “yeah, if I could have that one back ...” or something like that. He really seems to do the same thing that’s not working over and over. Infuriating as a fan.
So 6 inning starts win games. If that gets pointed out enough, it gets out there into the Met ecosphere, I worry that the goal will become a directive which will become “stick with the starter through 6, regardless of what’s happening in the game, and remove him after 6, again, regardless”. They do realize the meaning of the statistic is that they are containing the other teams offense for the first 6 innings of the game, thus minimizing the opportunities for the other team to face Jimmy Yacabonis, et al. I’d like to see the piggyback starter, or the opener tried. It should work just as well. Peterson hopefully won’t revert. We know what he is capable of. Lucchessi too. Carrasco. Megill. These guys may not be frontline starters, but they are a hell of a lot better than Jeff Brigham. Once we have Quintana back, and hopefully none of the other starters injured, can we please see what it looks like to have our best 13 pitchers on the active roster at the same time? It’s not that complicated. 9 innings in a ballgame. Use the best pitchers you have!
In fairness, Buck admitted his mistake in the Zach Britton affair in addressing his team at the start of spring training the next season. Of course,, that doesn't mean his judgment necessarily got any better ...
Didn’t know that. Maybe he’s just getting grumpier and more set in his ways. Long past time for him to express a regret for a choice made this season.
I think it means they only have a few competent pitchers to cover 2/3 of the game. the offense scores 6+ and they get 3 solo homers in the 8/9 innings you win but the era sucks. we need more competence and ability to get to the 7th or 8th. even if diaz were healthy the games are lost by the 7th. either get starters there, find good pairings to so openers, or improve middle relief.
I don't believe you have to have the starter go 6 to win. see the rays for the last decade. you have to competently get to the last 6 or 9 outs before you go to closers or introduce low leverage people. Mets can't do that right now or next year likely at this point.
as for buck, he's not the manager in 2023 and if he is then he's fired midseason. stage is set pending Cohen's presser and the rest of this season for a transition to Chavez or Beltran by 2024 or 2025
*manager in 2024
Let's Go Six is my new go to phrase.
I don’t think the 529 WAR analysis of managers is that useful or that it applies here because it is an aggregate metric. What matters are the big individual moments/decisions in a big games and Buck consistently fails at these (Orioles in 2016); end of 2022 Mets; and the horrible loss to the Phillies a few days ago. Buck might win the popularity contest with players but he has never won a World Series. I don’t think it is a wise investment to expect a different outcome with this Mets team.
It’s interesting that there is a 529 WAR analysis of managers. Personally, I’m not exactly a WAR devotee. To my view there are simply too many variables at play that affect a games’ outcome for these mathematicians to assemble a single (proprietary) algorithm that combines so many separate statistics of individuals who are not performing without the context of the rest of the players on the field. A bit too much of an act of faith.
I agree, Ben, that what we see that matters are those big individual moments. But as viewers we are not privy to what goes on in the moments between manager and player, whether on the field, in the dugout, in the locker room, the office or perhaps even at a social event outside of work.
Remember that time a young deGrom had perhaps his most humiliating comeuppance, knocked out of a game, and the TV cameras captured Terry, arm around him, speaking quietly in the ear of the teary eyed player? We can imagine what was said, we can speculate on how it may or may not have helped deGrom, ultimately improved his WAR, if you will.
Who knows what differences the manager ultimately makes? I do suspect their affects on the outcome of the games is more than just their decisions regarding the lineup and substitutions.
By the way, I’m on team “Fire Buck”. He’s destroying this season.
Great perspective Jonathan - you’re right so many intangibles and moments that we can’t see or measure.
It should be very interesting to hear Steve Cohen's remarks today. I didn't think he would rage-fire anyone in mid-season - that's not his thing, but Eppler's remarks yesterday are the physical embodiment of that popular meme "This is fine" as the blaze roars on. I'll ride it out as I have done for decades of bad teams, but the reckoning must come in the off-season. According to the Mets, the manager, coaches, GM, and even the players are all exactly what they want, so "This is fine".
There's nothing else anyone can say. A lot of what we're witnessing is guys being professionally bland with the media. Nobody thinks it's fine. They seems to recognize that there's no benefit to second-guessing themselves or raking colleagues over the coals. Stiff upper lip. Play the games. See what happens.
Just one comment:
I've never agreed with your Peterson analysis. To me, it's always been about his ability to throw strikes with the fastball, get ahead of hitters. Everything plays off that.
He's such a confounding talent, much like Matz for me. On games when they are on, I'd come away convinced that I've just seen a 16-game winner. A LHP who has all the tools. And then, both of them, would go through horrible stretches. It seemed like they were soft, didn't have the mental fortitude. Would nibble, fall behind, and not have the pure stuff to overcome that deficit. In both cases, I was confident they'd have great success in the future. The Peterson we saw last night was the guy I thought should be the starter this season. I felt he was ready to make the leap.
Who knows.
For all the talk about replacing the '92/'93 Mets as the "worst team money could buy," there is one huge difference between the two squads. That bunch under Jeff Torborg failed miserably out of the gate, and were never competitive. This year's team, with the same manager, essentially the same offense and defense and roughly equivalent with pitching other than Diaz of course, has already proved they can win, maybe not to the point of another 101 wins, but at least 90 which gets you into the October tournament. But outside of the first 21 games, they have appeared enduringly listless or lifeless, almost like they are overcome by a haze of self-doubt. Perhaps somewhere in their minds, they say we won 101 games and built a huge lead, STILL couldn't win the division, and then were out in a flash in the playoffs - God, what is it going to take? That leads to a defeatist attitude which often carries over to the next season. Rest assured this group started doubting themselves as they left Atlanta last September, and then were left to contemplate their quick out vs SD - and totaling one measly hit against a good but hardly great starter in the elimination game - for the whole off-season. Then there was the Diaz injury which the players even admit was demoralizing. I mean, given that they hit when they don't pitch - losing 7 (!) games when they scored 6 runs or more - while also failing to hit when they pitch, and now have trouble in the field, it feels like a group that knows what it can do, but is frustrated and stalled by a mental block. If you think about it, it's really the only explanation for seven games under .500 that makes sense.
Off-Topic: File Under, "Why the Mets Farm System Is in a Shambles."
Last July, the Mets traded two young prospects for Tyler Naquin. An oft-injured, poor fielding outfielder who would fill a minor role for the Mets moving forward. This is the kind of guy you trade for, pick up his salary, and give the Reds a bum in exchange.
However, one of the guys we sent over is a 19-year-old outfielder with a .955 OPS in A-ball, Hector Junior Rodriguez.
This cannot happen.
It cannot happen.
Now before we crucify Billy Eppler, let's be realistic. He doesn't intimately know every guy in the system. He's talking to the guys on the field, the coaches, the scouts, the manager. And obviously, nobody said, "You can't trade this kid for a borderline rental. No way."
So Eppler, on advice, made an obscene trade for Tylor Naquin. Who sucks and who the Reds didn't even need.
How can the Mets have a SYSTEM in place that allows this trade to happen? How do we not know our own players? A team must know it's own players. We have the best view. This is where the Braves always excel. They know how they've got, they know who is over-hyped. They don't trade away future stars for bums.
So fixing the farm system is not about having a good draft or two. It's not trading veteran talent for prospects. It's about have dozens of high-quality employees (scouts, evaluators, analysts, coaches) working intelligently, in unison.
Yes, Eppler is responsible for that horrible trade, among others. But who is advising him on these players? What the hell is going on that such a trade could be possible.
Note: The other guy the Mets included is a very young pitcher who might also have some success. Not a bum.
For Tyler Naquin. Jesus Christ.
From a June 5 Minor League report:
Florida State League (Single-A)
>> Daytona Tortugas (Reds) outfielder Hector Rodriguez batted .357/.394/.612 and led the league in hits (35), runs (23), triples (four), slugging percentage (.612) and OPS (1.006). He was second in average (.357) and total bases (60). He recorded nine multi-hit games and hit safely in 21 of 23 May games, including a 13-game hitting streak from May 16-31. Rodriguez, 19, was originally signed by New York (NL) as an international free agent out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, on January 15, 2021. He was traded to Cincinnati in the 2022 trade that sent Tyler Naquin and Phillip Diehl to the Mets. <<
Couldn't disagree more about how much a manager impacts a teams record. It is not that black and white.
Keep Buck & build a new team around Alonso, Lindor,Nimmo, Alvarez & Baty everyone else can go including the pitching staff except Scherzer & Diaz
Nice job on the manager analysis. Thanks Jeff.
Spot on Jimmy. I’ve been saying this (far less eloquently) for a few weeks now. We draft adequately. It’s everything else about player development and “asset management” that we stink at. It’s why I’ve been calling for a trade of Parada, our #1 prospect this season, to improve our pitching this season.
And why I am not at all concerned about losing 10 places in draft position as punishment for exceeding the luxury tax. Plenty of good players left to draft (and sign internationally). It’s what you do with them next that matters.
I would hate trading Parada for a guy we get this season (and who exactly is available?).
I’d wait to see what they do for the next month. But if they are back to playing well and have a winning record by about July 20 and are looking like they are a good shot at a wildcard, I’d trade the prospect for a legit starting pitcher or maybe 3 legit bullpen arms on an expiring contract. Absolutely.
Parada is a highly ranked prospect who plays a position where we already have our future star just starting out. He’s worth a ton to a rebuilding team that’s looking to compete in 3-4 years.
It’s not gonna happen. Eppler said as much. I think he’s wrong about only trading a prospect for someone with control. There is nothing risky about trading for a guy and if you like him sign him to come back. It’s a great low commitment try out.
Maybe Lucas Giolito or Eduardo Rodriguez. There’s guys.
Parada doesnt profile as a catcher in the long run. Something to keep in mind.
It’s not really fair (but we all do it) to make these analogies between players. I get it.
Looking back so far on Peterson’s brief career, he’s shown unremarkable but steady progress between his 2020 premier (under those very unusual circumstances) and the end of last season. He missed such a large part of 2021 due to a freak injury happening before he returned from a normal injury, so really he’s early early early in his career. Called up after a 60 game season started, out for most of the next year, and successful when given the chance after others ahead of him on the depth chart were injured the following season.
And then he was lights out in spring training, grabbing a spot in the rotation.
And then he stunk and was demoted.
It could be growing pains. Maybe we don’t know what this guy is gonna be.
I think it’s a far cry from what we know about Steven Matz. He had his chance. He’s 32 years old. He’s an inconsistent pitcher who is likely well past his prime.
I remain hopeful about Peterson. He looked great last night. I think confidence comes from success. And a bad streak like he’s been on this season, so early in his career, is very likely in his head.
Let’s hope he’s gonna continue to grow and be a reliable contributor.
https://twitter.com/michaelgbaron/status/1673803169699184641?s=46&t=MIotg5vvA8EhjHC6GVWXVA
Very funny tweet by Michael Baron regarding Eppler’s corporate speak. I’m very happy JB gave us this synopsis of his press conference yesterday, so I don’t have to wade through his gobbledegook roundabout way of expressing fairly simple thoughts. Too much work.
Looking forward to Steve Cohen’s “honest anecdote.” Let’s Go Mets!
Great edition today ! Chuck full of insight. After reading Peter's and JB's views on the state of state of the Mets coaches i'm just going t sit "tight". I didnt watch Peterson's game figuring he would stink up the place and got burned. I also will not get sucked into thinking "this is the game to get them going". Best thing right now with the NHL draft and Football right around the corner just sit tight !
Steve, I havent watched the last 5 games. I'm still following the team, but i just cant dedicate 3 hours of my day to them at this point. They have done nothing but embarrass themselves since May.
Well said Matthew - investment of time without payback. Agree with you.
I follow the Mets very closely, have since I was 7 years old. Love the reading and analysis. But in terms of watching games, that comes and goes, depending on circumstances. I generally don't believe in sitting in a chair watching TV for hours every night. The faster games have helped a lot.