The Metropolitan: Plan B(auer)?
And what are the Mets getting in Joey Lucchesi?
Good Morning,
Today we will talk about the latest on Trevor Bauer and give a breakdown of newest Met Joey Lucchesi (remember him?). But we start with the news, and first a quick note:
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⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
🧐 POST-PORTER UNCERTAINTY: As Sandy Alderson and the Mets push forward without Jared Porter, there appears to be some uncertainty among agents (i.e., the ones who leak to reporters) about who remains a priority for the club in free agency.
EXAMPLES: One such player is free agent outfielder Albert Almora, per Andy Martino. And another is right-hander Trevor Williams (we might need a Trevor-themed drinking game this season), per Mike Puma.
37 DAYS: It’s important to remember that Porter was only GM for 37 days. Alderson has been leading the ship since Cohen took over. He has plenty of people — including his son, who is in charge of pro scouting — to keep him apprised of players Porter was considering.
INTEL: That said, a source tells us something Porter brought to the table that isn’t Sandy’s forte was his ability/willingness to constantly check in all day with younger execs across the league, and keep tabs on who might be available, particularly depth signings (eg, the aforementioned Almora).
⚾︎ SPEAKING OF DEPTH: From Deesha Thosar: “While many in the industry expect the Mets to sign a free agent like Jackie Bradley Jr. or Kiké Hernandez, sources believe the Mets are more likely to acquire someone like Albert Almora as a platoon option.”
🍎 FARM DIRECTOR: The Mets are hiring former Cleveland hitting coordinator Kevin Howard to be their farm director, per Jon Heyman. The former minor leaguer replaces Jared Banner, who was let go when Alderson returned. Learn more about Howard here.
😮 SURPRISED BY TRADE: During their introductory press conferences with the Indians, both Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez revealed their initial reactions to being traded:
ROSARIO: Obviously, at the time, it was a little bit of a big shock,” Rosario said through an interpreter (via the NY Post). “I froze when I heard the news. I was having lunch when I heard the information.”
GIMENEZ: “When I received the call, I was a little shocked…It was a surprise.”
⚾️ BEST DEFENSIVE PROSPECT: MLB Pipeline listed outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong as the Mets’ best defensive prospect: “Scouts viewed Crow-Armstrong as perhaps the best defensive outfielder available in the 2020 Draft. He blew away Mets officials with his performance in center field during fall instructional league after the club took him with the No. 19 overall pick. The 18-year-old is a dynamic athlete who plays hard and gets to everything hit in the air with his plus speed, first-step quickness and preternatural feel for reading the ball off the bat.”
📈 PROSPECT PROJECTIONS: Speaking of prospects, you can read how Steamer 600 views the Mets’ prospects in projecting their performance over a full major league season.
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
As Mets fans tweeted and texted with their friends in debate about the merits of letting George Springer sign with the Blue Jays, an unexpected rumor popped on our timelines:
“Based on conversations with sources,” MLB insider Mark Feinsand reported, “the two teams believed to have the best shot at Trevor Bauer are the Mets and the Angels.”
🛑 So, wait a minute… You are trying to tell me the Mets wouldn’t pay Springer an extra $30 million over five years, but they are suddenly going to shell out $35 million per season over 4-5 years for Bauer? It sounds like somebody’s agent might be using their relationship with a reporter to gain some leverage with the Angels.
But could it be true? As much as Cohen has become baseball’s most accessible owner on social media (and he reveals more in a few tweets than the Wilpons would in ten press conferences), we don’t really know how he will manage his payroll. We have hints. He said he didn’t plan to spend like a drunken sailor. Plus, we know his net worth—and if you don’t, ask a Mets fan if the team should exceed the luxury tax and I guarantee you they will respond with the answer.
We all assumed the Mets didn’t sign Springer because of their 2022 payroll commitments, but maybe it’s because they prefer adding another starter to their rotation; one who happens to be the only person not named Jacob deGrom to have taken home a National League Cy Young since 2018.
That said, I still have a hard time believing it. Adding the 30-year-old right-hander who has had an ERA over 4 in five of his seven full big league seasons carries a lot of risk and comes at a tremendous cost, as Joel Sherman outlined in his column this morning:
“Almost any Bauer deal would soar the Mets beyond the $210 million luxury-tax threshold, and Cohen has indicated he wants to stay beneath that number in 2021. Plus, because Bauer was made the qualifying offer by the Reds and rejected it, the Mets would lose their second pick in June’s draft and $500,000 in international slot money if they sign him. And the Mets are committed to trying to restock their farm system.”
If you’re getting the Bauer who strikes out 36 percent of the batters he faces, barely walks anyone and pitches to a 1.73 ERA (like he did last season), then sure. You can afford to give up a draft pick and pay him what he wants.
But if you’re getting the version we described here, or you suddenly become the center of the Bauer Universe in terms of entertainment instead of baseball, it’s probably best to say thanks, but no thanks.
What the Mets are getting in Joey Lucchesi
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
Every morning I start my day with a clean To-Do list on an old-fashioned notepad: these are the five things I need to get done today. Inevitably, my perfect list turns into a mess of scribbles, arrows changing the priority of one item over another, and about nine new things that append themselves to the list throughout the day. Nothing ever goes as planned.
Rotations in baseball kind of work the same way. We can sit here and list who we think will take the ball every fifth day next season for the Mets, but reality will obviously get in the way of best laid plans. Hopefully, the top guys stay where they are, but the later rotation turns usually turn into a revolving cast of characters.
This is why adding left-hander Joey Lucchesi (the final move of the Jared Porter era) could be important. Whether it’s injuries, performance concerns, or roster management decisions, the Mets need starting depth. Lucchesi gives them that as a starter who is under team control through 2024, which is the same as saying he doesn’t cost a lot of money, and he has two minor league options remaining.
Options are important in life and baseball. The Mets don’t have a lot of flexibility in assigning their pitchers between the majors and minors. Only David Peterson, Edwin Diaz, and Seth Lugo have options among the pitchers expected to make the active roster. By adding Lucchesi, along with Stephen Tarpley and Sam McWilliams, the Mets are prioritizing arms they can shuttle between Triple-A and the big leagues.
But is this guy any good?
If you want to give yourself an idea of Lucchesi’s performance over the past few years, think about Steven Matz. The two southpaws have pitched to strikingly similar results over Lucchesi’s last two full seasons in 2018 and 2019, with both having forgettable 2020 campaigns.
So he stinks? I guarantee you my dad will text me this after seeing this comparison. Lucchesi is two years younger than Matz, so we will have to give him a little more time to develop into a major league pitcher. As often is the case, his success will depend on whether he can develop his secondary pitches.
While the former Padre’s “churve” is extremely fun and at times one of the most deceptive pitches in baseball…
…his sinker is inconsistent and he lacks a legit third offering. It’s hard to be an effective starter when you only have one pitch that is reliable.
Lucchesi throws his sinker most often, mainly because he has trouble commanding any of his other pitches. While the heavy fastball is known for generating ground balls due to its downward movement, Lucchesi’s lacks drop, which helps explain why he allowed the most home runs among sinker pitches between 2018 and 2019.
(If you’re wondering if Citi Field might help him, despite pitching considerably better at spacious Petco Park — they’re still calling it that, right? — than on the road, 22 of his 23 home runs in 2019 would have still been gone if they were all hit in Queens.)
Beyond that, he throws a cutter, which might as well be a batting practice pitch. Opposing hitters turn into Mookie Betts when the darting fastball releases from Lucchesi’s hand, mashing it to a .310/.388/.560 slash line over the past three seasons.
Until Lucchesi can figure out how to record outs with more than one pitch, his long-term success as a starter will probably be limited.
THE PAYOFF: The Mets lack major league ready pitching depth with roster flexibility. To help fill the gap, they opted to give up a young catcher who could turn into a decent player. It’s possible Lucchesi eventually meets his prospect pedigree (he was “dominant” in the minors) and becomes a low-cost find, but it seems just as likely he ultimately finds his way to the bullpen as a middle reliever.
⚾️ The Kansas City T-Bones of the independent American Association are being renamed the Kansas City Monarchs in honor of the team that played in the Negro Leagues.
⚾️ Houston has agreed to a two-year, $7 million deal with catcher Jason Castro, per USA Today.
⚾️ Red Sox continue in talks with potential Mets target Kiké Hernandez, per Chris Cotillo of Mass Live.
⚾️ Reds are among many teams interested in shortstop Andrelton Simmons, per Jon Heyman.
🔗 If Sandy Alderson wants to change baseball’s broken culture, he should start with himself, by Bradford William Davis, NY Daily News: “While Alderson is now calling for change, his conduct during the interview perpetuated the problems he wanted to solve. In [his recent] press conference, Alderson revealed the woman’s nationality, which was withheld in the ESPN story. This is crucial: The woman wanted her identity private, and that information being public narrowed the field.”
🔗 Jayson Stark: The greatest era of shortstops ever? We did the math — it’s true: “We are witnessing something unique, historic and spectacular. When the likes of Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr. and their remarkable friends appear before our wondrous eyes, we are witnessing the greatest era of shortstops in the history of baseball. And before Derek Jeter, Ozzie Smith or any heirs of Honus Wagner start contacting their lawyers, here’s what they need to know: I can prove every word of that phrase: The greatest in the history of baseball.”
🔗 A look at some of the Mets' famous fans, by Anthony DiComo, MLB.com: “Considering their location in New York City, the Mets have always attracted an A-list following just as vibrant as that of the crosstown Yankees. Here’s a look at some of the most famous Mets fans to make their mark in New York, Hollywood and beyond.”
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Lucchesi does stink like Matz lol - mets not signing any more big names - gus like this is all that is coming