One night in Washington
Mets vs Nats tonight. Plus: we explore the curious case of Edwin Diaz
Good Morning,
Since we last “spoke” on Friday, the Mets split four games against the bullpen-challenged Phillies, with the most recent contest a 4-2 loss in a rare off-day yesterday for Marcus Stroman.
We’ll catch you up on all the news of the day, and get you ready for an interesting upcoming schedule, starting with a one-day set against the Nationals. But first, let’s recap last night’s action.
⚾️ IN SHORT: Zack Wheeler escaped a first inning threat and then dominated the Mets over 7 innings, striking out 8. Marcus Stroman lasted only 3 innings (on 74 pitches), Corey Oswalt turned in an impressive relief appearance, and the Mets’ bats were quiet, losing to the Phillies 4-2. [Box Score]
🔑 KEY MOMENT: With one out in the top of the 2nd and two runners on, Wheeler laid down a sacrifice bunt that Stroman fielded and fired to Jeff McNeil covering first base. McNeil dropped the ball, and instead of second and third and 2 outs, the Phillies had bases loaded and 1 out. The inning was extended, the Phillies scored their first run when the next batter hit a sacrifice fly, and Stroman had to throw a lot more pitches.
3 TAKEAWAYS
❶ NO OFFENSE: We get tired of trying to come up with clever ways of saying the Mets aren’t hitting, but the Mets aren’t hitting. They managed to score only 9 runs in 4 games against a Phillies pitching staff that is suspect (minus one or two obvious exceptions). The Phillies bullpen is notoriously bad, and the team had dropped 3 straight coming into the series.
❷ OSWALT ASCENDENT: For the second time in a week, Oswalt delivered a strong relief appearance. Pressed into early service, he threw 4 scoreless innings, striking out 4.
❸ WHERE’D THE PHILS FIND THIS WHEELER GUY?: Wheeler was dominant once again, picking up the win to go to 6-4 with a 2.20 ERA. So far this season, he’s leading the league in strike outs (130), 2nd in innings pitched (106.1), 7th in ERA, and 9th in WHIP (0.97).
🧑🏫 SOUND SMART: Dating back to last year, Corey Oswalt has now delivered two scoreless relief outings of four innings, making him the first pitcher to do that over his Mets career since Darren Oliver in 2006. (h/t: Anthony DiComo)
⏭ NEXT UP: The Mets travel to Washington tonight to make up one game from the first series of the season, which was initially postponed due to positive COVID tests from inside the Washington organization. After the one-game set, they then travel to Atlanta for three against the Braves, before the subway series starting Friday in the Bronx.
MATCHUP: The Mets will send Jerad Eickhoff to the mound tonight after he escaped trouble to throw four scoreless last week in his Mets debut. The Nationals have not yet announced their starter.
DEPTH: Due to the Mets’ rash of recent doubleheaders (and their glut of injuries), they will need both of their emergency starters from last week — Eickhoff and Tylor Megill — to start key divisional games today and tomorrow. Both held their own in outings last week.
📈 STANDINGS: The Mets fell to 40-33, and saw their lead above second-place Washington narrow to 4 games. The Nats won 5-1 behind Max Scherzer.
FAST: With Saturday’s win in game 2 of the doubleheader, the team earned its 40th win in just 72 games, the fastest Mets team to do so since 2010.
🏇 CAVALRY: Reinforcements are coming soon to Queens. Luis Rojas indicated that Brandon Nimmo, who was on base three times yesterday for AAA-Syracuse, could join the team in Atlanta tomorrow. In addition, Jonathan Villar, Tomás Nido and Jeurys Familia are expected to join J.D. Davis in Syracuse for rehab this week.
🍪 COOKIE RISING: Carlos Carrasco has achieved some modest progress, throwing a side session from just below the rubber on the bullpen mound. The next step will be to try pitching from the “top of the slope and throw a regular side,” Rojas said.
OTHER REHAB NEWS: Dellin Betances is struggling in the minors. After allowing 3 ER in 0.1 IP on Friday for Syracuse, he now has a 19.64 ERA across five rehab outings in Low-A St. Lucie and Syracuse.
⚔️ MATCHUP: Yesterday’s matchup between Marcus Stroman and Zack Wheeler had an interesting historical angle to it: Stroman is the pitcher that former GM Brodie Van Wagenen acquired in 2019 as a “replacement” for Wheeler, in anticipation of losing him to free agency.
🤗 WELCOME BACK: The club re-signed outfielder Mason Williams and assigned him to Triple-A Syracuse, after he had sought free agency upon clearing waivers.
👀 NEW OUTFIELDERS? The Mets are experimenting with their top third-base prospects by trying them in the outfield. In recent days, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos have both made their first professional starts at the position.
📉 MARKET CORRECTION: Remember when Billy McKinney was such a hot performer that he essentially led the offense for a few weeks? He has since regressed to numbers more in line with his career, with the .226 lifetime hitter now slashing .225/.327/.507, with 4 homers and a steal over 71 at-bats for the Mets.
❤️ RIP: Marcus Stroman will take time away from the club to be with his family, following the passing of his grandmother. He’s expected to make his next start against the Yankees.
From the weekend…
🏛 JAKE STATS: After Saturday’s performance, here are some of the latest Jacob deGrom stats to boggle your mind:
He set the record for the lowest ERA through June in MLB history, at 0.69
After failing to capitalize on his greatness in the past, the Mets have now won his last eight starts
The batting average for NL pitchers this year is .113. All hitters facing deGrom are hitting .115
He has retired 37 straight batters in the 1st inning
He’s now hitting .414.
🍬 NON-SAVE: Edwin Diaz took the win in Saturday’s second game, but allowed the then go-ahead run, making it the latest non-save situation in which he’s faltered. Hitters are now a minuscule 8-for-60 with 1 run against him in save situations, but a stout 14-for-45 with 9 runs in non-save ones. (Much more on Diaz below.)
🍲 HOT LOUP: After working a clean 7th on Saturday, Aaron Loup has now gone 12 straight scoreless appearances.
🏟️ PLAYOFF ATMOSPHERE: Mets players raved about the crowd at Citi after Saturday’s double-header, with Kevin Pillar saying, “You could feel the energy in the stadium... today was hopefully the first of many. It felt as close to playoff atmosphere as you could get for a Saturday afternoon game."
🔮 UPCOMING: It looked like Jacob deGrom might be lined up to face Gerrit Cole Friday night against the Yankees, in what would be a hotly anticipated showdown. However, the Mets now plan to start Jake Thursday against Atlanta, to get him three starts before the All-Star break.
📚 ON THIS DATE:
The two Edwins
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
Edwin Díaz has been two different pitchers this season: when he has a chance to earn a save, he has been dominant, cruising through the ninth inning with a pop and rhythm that mimics his Narco entrance song; however, when he is called upon without a lead to protect, he has been about as rhythmic as I am when trying to dance to his Narco entrance song.
Overall, he has been one of the ten best relievers in baseball, according to WAR, and one of only three closers to have racked up at least 15 saves while blowing less than two. In 17 save situations, the flame-thrower acquired in the infamous Jarred Kelenic trade has surrendered just one earned run. For all the high blood pressure counts Díaz is directly responsible for among Mets fans, when the right-hander has stepped on the mound with a lead this season, he has been lights out.
But what to do about those non-save situations? As noted earlier, in 13 such appearances, hitters are a staggering 14-for-45 against him, leading to nine earned runs and a 6.17 ERA. It would be easy to brush these outings off as non-pressurized situations, assuming a non-save situation is one in which the game is already out of hand, so who cares if he gives up a few runs then?
But Díaz has been most challenged in tie games this season—a situation we all can agree is more intense than protecting a three-run lead, even though the latter can lead to a save, while the former amounts to a hold, or a footnote in the box score.
Apologies for sounding like Christoper “Mad Dog” Russo, but it makes you wonder if the Mets can truly trust Díaz in a “big spot.”
To answer that, we need to consider the metric we are using to evaluate his performance. As any fan who has watched a few games of baseball knows, the save statistic is far from perfect. Besides overvaluing the ninth inning, it groups together several score situations of varying intensities, while ignoring some of the most pressurized environments, such as pitching in a tie game.
Luckily, sabermetric guru Tom Tango came up with something called the Leverage Index, which measures the importance of a particular event depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base.
While Díaz has turned three tie games into deficits this season, overall, when the pressure is the highest — based on the inning, score, outs, etc. — he has pitched his best. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in high leverage situations is more than double what it is in low leverage outings.
Using the leverage index to evaluate Díaz in big spots, we gain more context than simply looking at save vs non-save splits. His high leverage numbers include the tie games he has lost; and the three tie games he has held down the fort—one coming in the 10th inning with a runner already placed at second base. And his saves are categorized appropriately based on the score context, with one-run saves considered higher leverage than three-run saves.
Of course, as Mets fans know, the right-hander’s struggles in non-save situations are nothing new. His career splits show the same trend: opponents slug nearly 90 points higher when Díaz isn’t trying to protect a three-run-or-less lead. But if we look at his most recent results, the trend is less clear. In fact, last season, his splits in high leverage vs low leverage situations were almost identical to each other, helping him finish the shortened season with a 1.75 ERA.
BOTTOM LINE: While it’s impossible to ignore the stark difference in Díaz’s numbers in save vs non-save situations, when you dig a little deeper, you find a pitcher who has been dominant in high leverage situations, and who has been the most reliable reliever out of the Mets’ pen all season long, despite a few hiccups in tie games.
⚾️ MLB snared the first victim of its crackdown on sticky substances yesterday, as Seattle’s Hector Santiago was ejected after umpires checked his glove and found something suspicious. It was confiscated and sent for further review.
⚾️ Pittsburgh third-baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes made a defensive play that is literally hard to comprehend (the secondary plot here: Yadier Molina is not fleet afoot):
🔗 Mets are thriving with positive approach from coaching staff, by Andrew Tredennick, Bergen Record: “The Mets have provided a master class this season on how positive thinking can help produce positive results. But where exactly are those responses coming from? "I think it’s a team mindset and celebrating the small wins has been a message from our mental performance coach, Josh Lifrak," manager Luis Rojas said before Sunday's game. "He talks about that all the time. I think the guys have done a really good job applying it and that’s what they do. It’s staying positive, which is a hard thing to do nowadays.”
🔗 Glaring Mets issue keeping door open for rest of NL East, by Joel Sherman, NY Post: “So the Mets managed no runs against Wheeler in seven innings and could not do enough damage against the charitable Phillies bullpen and lost 4-2. Thus, Sunday you understand. But this isn’t a Sunday, June 27, 2021 problem for these Mets. It was their problem in April and May and now June; when Chili Davis was the hitting coach and after his dismissal. They just are not producing enough offense.”
🔗 Mets turn clubhouse into smoke-filled dance club after wins, a season after someone made off with their fog machine, by Deesha Thosar, NY Daily News: “The first-place New York Mets celebrate wins this season with dance parties in a darkened Mets clubhouse, with the lights turned out and a spotlight for anyone who wants to jive and shimmy after a victory. Smoke machines spew a steady stream of fog through the clubhouse and lasers flash bright colors on the dressing room dance floor.”
And… we leave you with Jacob deGrom telling Mets fans how he feels about them:
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I've grown weary of the bad ABs. Not loving the thoughts expressed by Dom, Conforto, Pete, etc. This idea that they haven't "gotten hot" yet. As if a great two weeks would make up for game after game after game of feeble approaches and futility. It's been hard to watch. And harder, lately, to listen to.
Some defensive comments I’d like evaluated: first, mistake allowing run after Guillorme’s throw got by Pete was Pete’s, not Luis’. As Keith noted, Luis gave him a long hop. I would have added that it should have been caught. If folks don’t agree it was a relatively easy catch for MLB player, then Pete should have come off the bag to get the ball and save the run, sacrificing the out.
Second, fault on failed run down wasn’t Guillorme’s but McCann’s. While the catcher was right to send the runner back toward third, he held the ball too long. What should have been an easy tag out at least several feet from the base turned into a close play where the runner could avoid the tag. Our fab announcers missed this, I think. Thanks!