☕️ Good Morning:
I’m not sure what was more shocking last night, seeing Corbin Burnes traded to the Orioles or watching Jalen Brunson and company continue to defy odds with the Knicks. It’s fun to be a basketball fan in New York again. You can read more about that over at Knicks Film School.
☀️ You are reading this email because we are only 10 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and less than two weeks from the team’s first workout. So grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
Happening now: The Mets found themselves another left-hander for the bullpen, as they are reportedly close to signing veteran southpaw Jake Diekman to a one-year deal with a vesting option.
The 37-year-old appeared to be running into Father Time early last season with the White Sox, who released him after he posted a dreadful 7.94 ERA in 13 April games.
Picked up by Tampa, the Rays did what the Rays do, tweaking Diekman’s delivery to unlock another chapter in the 12-year veteran’s career. He would go on to post an impressive 2.18 ERA over 50 games, while holding opponents to soft contact at an elite level.
What this means: We discussed yesterday how the front office has been prioritizing arms with elite stuff this offseason, and Diekman is no exception. He ranks second to Edwin Díaz in Stuff+ among Mets relievers.
Four of the additions to the bullpen rank highly by Stuff+. Michael Tonkin is the only addition who falls lower down the list, alongside the returning Adam Ottavino.
This matches new president David Stearns’ M.O. as Milwaukee ranked 6th (2021), 7th (2022) and 12th (2023) in Stuff+ over the past three seasons.
Scanning the market: The Amazins are close to signing Diekman after reportedly offering left-hander Wandy Peralta a two-year deal with a club option in the $8-10 million range. Peralta ultimately found a better offer from the Padres, signing a unique four-year, $16.5 million contract that includes three opt-outs.
On a budget: After owing over $100 million in taxes last season, the Mets are being cautious with their payroll in 2024. Excluding the Diekman signing, they already have ~$312 million committed for this season, a number that conservatively will rise to $322 million when you account for split contracts and potential performance bonuses. They are also reportedly holding $10-15 million in reserve for the trade deadline, should they need it, per Andy Martino.
Roster moves: In order to finalize the Diekman deal, New York will need to create a 40-man roster spot. The team is 12 days away from being able to place players on the 60-day IL, so perhaps they drag this along a bit so they can simply add Diekman when Ronny Mauricio is put on the IL.
Out of Options: The addition of Diekman gives the Mets yet another reliever who can refuse assignment to the minors. Talk about the opposite of Billy Eppler’s preference for “optionality.” In fact, it’s very possible none of the Mets’ Opening-Day relievers will be optionable to the minors without consent or exposing them to outright waivers. The team will face some tough decisions on whom to option to start the season. I will discuss this in much more detail on Monday.
⚾️ How did Diekman find success in Tampa?
Diekman looked like a completely different pitcher upon switching his black-and-white uniform for Tampa’s navy and yellow last season. The change was the result of putting more confidence in his fastball and sweeper, while tweaking his release point.
Pitch Mix: Upon arriving in Tampa, Diekman started to lean heavily into his four-seamer, throwing his changeup less, his sweeper more, and nearly removing his two-seamer completely.
Secret sauce: “They have the same stuff as everyone else,” Diekman said in talking about Tampa’s pitching lab on the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast. “They are just super confident in the way that they either teach it or voice it to you […] You wouldn’t be here if they didn’t think you had plus stuff and they just ingrain it into your head to throw it for a strike all the time and I feel like that’s the biggest thing.”
Release point: Injected with confidence to throw his four-seamer more often, Diekman still needed to make some tweaks to account for a pitch that had lost ride and added run from the season before. Tampa was smart enough to adjust his release point by moving him closer to the first base side of the rubber so his fastball would play better in the strike zone.
Suddenly this pitch that was missing low and outside to lefties early in the season:
Was landing for a strike when thrown from the other side of the rubber.
Sweeper: Diekman’s sweeper turned into a dominant offset to his fastball against left-handed hitters down the stretch last season. Stuff+ takes into account how secondary pitches play off a primary fastball, which is why Diekman’s sweeper scores so well. Given a fastball with a bit more arm-side movement, he took away some sweep from his sweeper to make the two appear closer together in shape, even though they possess a stark velocity and break difference.
The result looked like this:
Three pitches low in the zone: a sweeper landing for a strike, another earning a whiff, only to completely freeze the hitter with a 96-mph fastball in the same spot. Diekman, who finished the year with reverse splits, turned a .405 wOBA against lefties in Chicago into a .269 wOBA against in Tampa.
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🔹 The Mets announced 10 more players they are inviting to Spring Training, including top prospects Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert and Christian Scott. They also invited Mike Vasil, Nate Lavender, Kevin Parada, Dominic Hamel, Tomás Nido, Eric Orze and catcher Hayden Senger. Keep in mind several other players have already received Spring Training invites on minor-league contracts. If you’re looking for Luisangel Acuña, he is an automatic invite on the 40-man roster.
🔹 MLB Pipeline named Christian Scott as the Mets’ best non-Top 100 prospect: “A former reliever at Florida, the 24-year-old still hasn’t thrown more than 90 innings in college or the pros, and that limited workload is maybe the only thing holding him back from a more famous profile.” Scott has found his name on other Top-100 lists.
🔹 Mark Vientos and Brett Baty have two of the widest variances among FanGraphs-housed projection systems this season. Naturally, they represent one of the biggest uncertainties for the Mets entering the season.
🔹 Former Met Todd Frazier confronted Gary Cohen over being too negative:
“People kept telling me back home, this guy is cutting you up, he’s cutting the Mets up. I’m like, ‘Ah, that’s what they do, you know?'” Frazier said on “Foul Territory” earlier this week. “I start looking into it. Players are like, ‘He’s always done this. Man, We can’t stand it.’”
“I went up to him one time and said, ‘Gary, I gotta talk to you man.’ I said, ‘What the heck is going on here, dude? I thought you’re a Mets fan.’ He’s like, ‘I am,’ and he kind of got pissed off at me and I said, ‘Well, start rooting for us.’”
🔹 The Mets-Braves game at Citi Field on May 12 will be featured on Sunday Night Baseball.
◾️ Reliever Keynan Middleton and the Cardinals have agreed to a contract pending a physical.
◾️ Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be paid $2.625 million instead of $2.9 million after losing his arbitration hearing on his 26th birthday, of all days.
🔗 Why the Brewers had to trade Corbin Burnes, by Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic ($): “The Milwaukee Brewers had to do this. They had to trade ace right-hander Corbin Burnes rather than be left with only a draft pick when he departed as a free agent at the end of the season. The move obviously stinks if you’re a Brewers fan. Just as it stunk when the team traded Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline. Just as it will stink again if shortstop Willy Adames, closer Devin Williams or both are the next to go.”
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Am I crazy in really liking how this bullpen is coming together JB? Seem to have some good options at the front and backend, and if Ott relies on his sweeper more in 2024 than he did in 2023 (like in 2022), then expecting some good results. Maybe it's just pre-season excitement, but really liking the look of what they're putting together.
I never cared for Todd Frazier in the least. Not a fan. He can't disappear fast enough.