Good Morning,
Let’s be honest: yesterday’s walk-off win felt like eating ice cream after finding out your car was stolen. Ice cream always tastes good, but it doesn’t take away the sting of what you lost.
While the Mets did their best to put a positive spin on the news, losing Max Scherzer for 6–8 weeks is a brutal blow to a franchise that is already playing without Jacob deGrom, and his upstart replacement, Tylor Megill.
A rotation that entered the season with the potential to boast two Cy Young Award winners pitching at the top of their games, will now rely on pitchers best served in long relief or Triple-A roles. And raise your hand if you feel confident in the long-term health of Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco.
Of course, the timing of Scherzer’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time. This weekend, the Mets embark on the first of two west-coast trips over the next two weeks. Between now and June 29, they will play three first-place teams and three second-place teams. Their next ten opponents have a combined .551 winning percentage.
But, before we hit the panic button, let’s not cast aside what this team has done despite some early-season adversity. Their come-from-behind victory on Thursday came at a perfect time. It was like the Mets wanted to remind us that they can win some games with their bats, too.
The Mets have the largest first-place lead in baseball, with a 7-game jump on the Phillies, and an 8-game lead over Atlanta (which is actually the mark they battled back from last season). There is some legitimate breathing room.
It was a tough day for the Amazins, but that didn’t stop them from winning. Let’s recap yesterday’s action.
IN SHORT: In a seesaw affair that went into extra innings after the Cardinals turned a few infield grounders into a ninth-inning rally off Edwin Díaz, Pete Alonso provided a much-needed jolt on a difficult day with a walk-off two-run homer in the 10th to give the Mets a 7–6 victory. [Box Score]
◾️ALONSO: Whether you believe Alonso only hits home runs when it doesn’t matter (like he did Wednesday in an 8–4 game), or you have faith in him coming through in the clutch (as he did yesterday), the overall theme is that he drives in a ton of runs. His two-run homer on Thursday gives him 36 RBIs on the season, which is most in baseball. He is batting .321 with six homers and 16 RBIs over his past 15 games.
◾️McNEIL: What else can we say about Jeff McNeil? He has been unbelievable this season, proving last year was an aberration. Once again, he contributed at the plate, driving in three runs, but his defense in left field really stuck out. He looked like Kevin Mitchell out there.
First, on a leaping catch and throw to double up Tommy Edelman:
And later, making a sliding catch on a fast-dropping fly ball:
If the Mets are going to weather the storm of injuries to the top of their rotation, it will be in large part because of the contributions of players like McNeil.
“It just shows a lot about this team,” McNeil told reporters after the game. “We’re coming here every single day, fighting, battling. No matter who’s on the field, we’re playing some good baseball.”
There’s two ways to talk about the Scherzer injury today: from a fan perspective, and from a front office perspective.
🔹 Starting as a fan, this sucks. Just as we were starting to get comfortable with the idea that the Mets could own this city like it was 1986, the injury reaper decided to make a visit, leaving the Amazins hobbled, while that cross-town team continues to win at an historic clip.
Between the hefty price tag the Mets are paying Robinson Canó to play under the sunshine in San Diego, and the combined salaries of Scherzer and deGrom, the Mets have over $100 million in payroll producing absolutely no value for them right now. And that’s ignoring what they are paying Lindor to hit .231.
Money can’t buy you happiness. Mets fans are learning this the hard way.
🔹 From a front office perspective, emotions don’t matter. Facts do. And the Mets are in a unique position where they can afford to lose a few paces in the standings while their star pitchers heal.
It’s only May 20th. I talked about the tough schedule over the next six weeks. Where the Mets stand after that stretch, both in the standings and the recovery timelines of deGrom and Scherzer, will dictate how aggressive general manager Billy Eppler needs to be in acquiring another starter before the trade deadline.
Don’t overlook the trade they already made for Chris Bassitt in the days before the season started. Teams usually don’t make trades in May, the momentum for player movement gains steam closer to July. While I’m sure Eppler will pick up the phone to check on the availability of starters like Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo, or even a less-known depth piece to act as a bridge into the summer, he doesn’t have to make those calls with desperation in his voice thanks to the Bassitt deal.
If Trevor Williams, David Peterson or even Thomas Szapucki can hold down the fort, Eppler can buy more time before needing to inject reinforcements at the cost of prospect capital, if he needs to at all.
😎 And if we wanted to be exceedingly positive, we could point to the success the Mets have already had from spot and replacement starters. While Megill is dealing with his own injury, you couldn’t have asked for a better fill-in for deGrom over the first month of the season. Megill is tentatively scheduled to begin playing catch today, so he could be back sooner rather than later. The Mets are also 4–1 in games started by Peterson and Williams.
Assuming Scherzer misses the next eight weeks, you can say that’s potentially ten starts. The Amazins were 6–2 in his first eight starts this season. Could they go 5–5 over his next ten rotation turns? What’s that? Maybe 2–3 games worse than an ideal situation with Scherzer healthy?
That said, winning games with your starter pitching six or seven innings is different than winning with your bullpen pitching the majority of those innings. As much as Scherzer’s injury means bigger roles for the Trevor Williams and David Petersons of the team, it also puts added weight on the likes of Drew Smith, Adam Ottavino and Seth Lugo.
Showalter has pitched relievers on back-to-back days only 13 times this season, tied for sixth least in baseball. But the Mets have the fourth worst ERA (6.57) in those situations, with Ottavino (8.10), Díaz (6.00) and Lugo (9.00) all struggling on short rest.
🔻 BOTTOM LINE: There’s no sugarcoating the news: losing Scherzer for two months is devastating. But it might not be crippling, when you consider the depth at the top of the rotation, the potential for a short-term fix via trade, and due to the mediocrity of the division.
The real consequence of this injury might not reveal itself until later this summer. How will the bullpen respond to a heavier workload? Not to mention, the timeline is 6–8 weeks right now, but we all know that can change. Does Scherzer return on schedule and immediately look his former self? At 37, you never know. However, if there’s one pitcher to feel optimistic about, it’s probably Mr. Scherzer.
Some more news and notes from yesterday…
👆BLISTERS: Buck Showalter revealed that Scherzer has also been pitching through multiple blisters on his pitching hand.
🗣 TRADE MARKET: Jon Heyman says the Mets have been scouting Frankie Montas, Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo, and while he noted it’s probably “a little too early to be trading for a starting pitcher” he thinks they will be aggressive in looking for help.
Heyman also reports the Mets ultimately passed on the Dom Smith-Chris Paddack/Eric Hosmer deal, not because of money, but because they were worried about Paddack’s medicals (which proved to be the right). While Hosmer has been playing extremely well for San Diego, Heyman says the Mets were working on a second trade that would have sent Hosmer somewhere else.
✍️ SIGNING: The Mets signed right-hander Trevor Cahill to a minor league deal last weekend, but it is just being reported now, first by the NY Post. Cahill, 34, still needs to be stretched out. He last pitched for the Pirates in 2021, but spent most of the season on the injured list with a left calf strain.
🔥 HOT: Francisco Lindor is showing signs of life at the plate, at one point reaching base in eight consecutive plate appearances, between Thursday and Friday, on three singles, four walks and a hit-by-pitch.
🍎 BACK AT IT: Starling Marte will be back with the team this weekend, after spending time on bereavement leave due to the death of his grandmother.
✈️ J-E-T-S: New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson was at the game yesterday wearing a custom Mets jersey, which Keith Hernandez got a kick out of.
🗓 UP NEXT: The Mets head into the cold and snow to take on the Rockies this weekend, before traveling to San Francisco early next week.
Colorado is trying to stay relevant in an ultra-competitive National League West. After an impressive 15–10 start, they have lost nine of 12, including five of six to the Giants over the past ten days. However, don’t discount that one win; it was the first against the Giants in 12 tries.
A few more notes on the Rockies…
◾️Kris Bryant is expected to return to the lineup after being sidelined with a sore back since April 23.
◾️As bad as the Mets’ catchers have been at the plate this season (save Patrick Mazeika’s small sample), the Rockies have been worse, matching the Mets with only two home runs from the position, but hitting just .195 (compared to the Mets at .205).
🔗 Mets’ high-cost roster should now be built to withstand injury absences, by Joel Sherman, NY Post: “When Max Scherzer was signed by the Mets, the dream scenario was that he and Jacob deGrom would combine for 60 dominant regular-season starts and then 10-12 more in October, pitching the Mets to the Canyon of Heroes. Now, it is fair to wonder whether they will even get half of that, 30 starts this year.”
🔗 No Scherzer ... no problem? How the Mets can weather two months without the injured ace, by David Schoenfield, ESPN ($): “This is a good team, with good momentum and, for now, the depth to survive without two months of Scherzer. No need to panic and make an ill-advised move … at least, not yet.”
🔗 With Max Scherzer out, Mets may need to rely on internal starting pitching options, by Anthony McCarron, SNY: “There were plenty of feel-good vibes at Citi Field after Pete Alonso cracked a walk-off homer Thursday afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals. But even in the afterglow of a terrific 7-6 win, it was hard not to wonder if the whole tenor of the Mets’ season changed with the Max Scherzer injury news.”
And we leave you with a fun conversation with 2021 second round pick Calvin Ziegler on the latest Mets Prospective podcast…
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Can we talk about the sound of Pete’s bat crushing that ball?! That may have been the loudest crack I ever heard!
This is the first time i actaully dont feel any "doom and gloom" and i dont know why. All other years you just knew the season is over with. This time i dont think it is. You play the schedule in front you doesnt matter if they are in 1st, 2snd or last - take them one at a time and keep swinging the bats ! LETS GO METS !