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How the new schedule impacts the Mets
Good Morning,
We’re another day closer to baseball returning, no matter what the groundhog saw on Thursday. And we even got some roster news yesterday. The Mets announced 15 players they have invited to major league spring training camp. Among those names are top prospects Kevin Parada and Alex Ramirez. More on this in a bit.
📬 Thanks to everyone who sent their questions yesterday. Please keep them coming!
Today, I will discuss how the new schedule format might impact the Mets. But first, let’s catch you up on the latest news.
🍎 SPRING ROSTERS: The Mets will bring at least 21 non-roster invitees to spring training. We already knew about six of them, signed throughout the offseason, but now we know the names of 15 more.
They invited four catchers, including Parada.
They invited top prospect Alex Ramirez, who besides Parada, is the only invitee who hasn’t played above High-A.
They invited ten pitchers, seven relievers and three likely starters. Eric Orze and Grant Hartwick are two intriguing prospects to watch.
Overall, six of Joe DeMayo’s top seven prospects will be in camp.
Find the full list of names here.
📝 SIGNING: The announcement also revealed the team has signed DJ Stewart to a minor league deal. The left-handed outfielder offers some pop to the depth chart. A former first-round selection of the Orioles, he saw the most action in 2021, batting .204/.324/.374 over 100 games, including 18 pinch-hit opportunities. He only played in three major-league contests last year.
🩺 IFFY PHYSICAL: It turns out that Kodai Senga reportedly had an “iffy” physical before finalizing his deal with the Mets thanks to “good behind-the-scenes collaborative effort.”
⚾️ RUF TIMES: The Mets never looked for a full-time DH replacement this offseason, according to Andy Martino. He notes they didn’t want to “plug up the spot, which would have prevented veterans and rookies from taking at-bat.”
🚜 FARM RANKINGS: A day after ranking 15th on Keith Law’s farm system rankings, the Mets landed 12th on Kiley McDaniel’s latest list.
The big changes here are that Alex Ramirez took a big step forward last season and first-round picks Kevin Parada and Jett Williams were added to the system. Some recent draftees, including Calvin Ziegler, Blade Tidwell and Nick Morabito, are potential breakout candidates in 2023.”
💰 TAX RISK: Something I’ve talked about before, Collective Bargaining Risk:
When the current CBA expires, so does the current Competitive Balance Tax rules. What happens if new penalties are instituted and they are so harsh that even Steve Cohen has to back down? It’s possible some contracts could be grandfathered into this hypothetical new system, but we don’t know. Therefore, it’s a risk. A 13-year-deal in the current CBA could look a lot different in the next CBA. For instance, teams might be forced to forfeit more draft capital for spending beyond certain thresholds.
With the current CBA set to expire on December 1, 2026, it’s not that long before the Mets have to worry about this. And yesterday Jon Heyman wrote, “word is going around that some owners were upset enough by the increasingly obvious wherewithal gap between Cohen and the have-nots that new measures may be tried to curtail him.”
Heyman frames the point around the pursuit of Ohtani, but it applies to any long-term deal. Will we be playing under the same rules in five years?
📬 FROM GREG: I haven't seen much discussion about the schedule changes starting this year; it seems to be happening under-the-radar. With less games played against NL East components and more against teams we rarely get to see, I wonder what the impact will be on the Mets record overall?
I actually got two questions related to the schedule. For context, MLB is “balancing” the schedule by reducing the number of divisional games in favor of inter-league play. Instead of seeing Jazz Chisholm Jr. for the 19th time, fans will have the opportunity to see Mike Trout or Julio Rodriguez at least one series per year.
🗓️ Under the new schedule, the Amazins will play 52 divisional games (down from 76), 64 games against the other two NL divisions (previously 66), and 46 inter-league games (up from 20). That means every team will play every team at least once.
Back to Greg’s question, how will this impact the Mets?
Luckily, Mike Petriello of MLB.com recently looked into this. Using FanGraphs’ projections, he compared 2023 strengths of schedules following the old format (as in if teams played who they previously would have played in 2023) versus the new format and came to the following conclusion:
Of the six divisions, the NL East is clearly projected to be impacted the most adversely under the new format. However, the Mets could see the smallest relative impact within their division.
🤔 WHY IS THIS THE CASE? Remember, the graphic above is comparing a team’s strength of schedule under the old format (76 divisional games) versus the new format (52 divisional games). It also considers what the 2023 interleague match-ups would have been as the comparison point.
Naturally, the American League should benefit the most since there are more competitive teams in the Junior Circuit—seven of the 11 clubs projected to finish near the bottom of the standings are in the National League.
The Mets are essentially replacing 12 games against the Nationals and Marlins with 12 games against teams like the feisty Rays, the upstart Orioles or the reigning division champion Guardians. Conversely, the Orioles replace games against the Yankees with pie-walks against the Nationals or Reds.
New York is impacted less than the Braves by the scheduling change because they already would have played the Yankees four times under the previous system. Those games remain, but Atlanta now adds a series with New York, while keeping the Red Sox, who are projected to finish last in the AL East.
✈️ WHAT ABOUT TRAVEL? Strength of schedule is one thing, but travel is another important factor to consider under the new schedule. This is an area where the Mets should see some benefit compared to last year when they faced off against the AL West while their league counterparts played teams relatively closer to their home cities.
Only three teams will travel less miles in 2023 relative to 2022 than the Mets—the Tigers, Rangers and Brewers. Meanwhile, the Braves and Phillies find themselves traveling more or close to the same amount.
Focusing on 2023, alone, the Mets have one of the lightest travel schedules in baseball, and they will cover less ground than anyone else in their division. In fact, they are only scheduled to take two flights to the Pacific Time Zone, the fewest trips west of any team in the NL East or AL East.
The difference in miles traveled is most profound with the Marlins, which probably won’t matter. Whether saving one long road trip or a few thousand frequent flyer miles relative to the Braves and Phillies will result in a more rested team that in turn wins more games is anyone’s guess. Studies have shown jet lag does impact performance. But I’m willing to bet the negative effects come more from quick individual turnarounds (i.e. games immediately following a travel day) than total miles traveled.
🔻 BOTTOM LINE: The Mets won 101 games last year in large part due to their dominating 27–11 record against the Marlins and Nationals (they were only 9–11 in interleague games). While Miami could be slightly better in 2023, both teams are expected to be bottom dwellers again. With 12 less games against those teams, we might see the number to reach the top of the NL East drop into the 90s.
The question is whether the tougher schedule will bring the Mets closer to the wild card pack. Could a team like Milwaukee, who missed the playoffs by one game with 86 wins last year, benefit from an easier schedule to close the gap on the second- or third-place NL East finisher?
I don’t think so. What Petriello’s graphic also highlights is how razor-close the margins are in the schedule. The Mets’ strength of schedule is projected to be ~2% more difficult. What is that a few wins?
📚 LEARN MORE: Sometimes you write something up and find out someone else was thinking about the same topic. As timing would have it, Jayson Stark published an in-depth piece about the new schedule this morning. He confirms some of my points, while offering a league-wide perspective. Read more here.
◾️ Recently acquired batting champion Luis Arraez won his arbitration case and will receive $6.1 million salary from the Marlins.
🔗 Garrett Wilson and Brett Baty lit up Texas as childhood friends. Now they’re trying to take over New York, by Mark W. Sanchez, NY Post: “The possible future Mets third baseman was under center, and the future No. 1 Jets receiver was out wide. A preteen Brett Baty dropped back, maybe 15 yards from the end zone, and looked for his default pass-catcher — the one he would find whenever he needed a completion. Baty watched his top target run a dig, and threw over the middle, an overthrow that was headed into the arms of a defensive back.”
🔗 Former Mets catcher Ed Hearn looking for a kidney donor: “Former Mets catcher Ed Hearn spoke with NewsdayTV's Laura Albanese on Tuesday about his search for another kidney donor after having undergone such a procedure 20 years ago.”
And we close this one out with some insight on outfield prospect Alex Ramirez…
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As you wrote, the rest of the NL East now has to play the Yankees but the Mets still play an extra game against them while ATL plays an extra game against the possibly last-place Red Sox and we know how big one game can be. If MLB wants to make the schedules equitable, as indicated in Jayson Stark's article today, then these "traditional rivalries" should go away.
I understood today’s chart! That is a lot of red for the NL East but less travel is always welcome. I could not access the Post article about Baty but reading about his off-season prep is exciting. Very mature and focused approach. Also exciting: Alex Ramirez. “A true centerfielder?” Cannot remember the last time I heard that and the Mets in the same breath. I heard someone on the video say Ramirez can take his time and he’ll be ready at 24. That seems long - four years? I read a comment online about the Mets’ non-roster invitees: “Just keep Parada away from the girlfriends.” 🤔