🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
In writing this newsletter, I want to make sure we cover a broad range of topics: in the offseason, we will continue to write about free agency, payroll, the front office, and what to expect in the coming season; when the calendar turns to spring and summer, we will talk about the game, funny things Keith says on TV, and whether Luis Rojas waited one batter too long to pull the starting pitcher; and all year ‘round we will delve into player profiles, prospects, and statistics, while leaving plenty of space for just words, anecdotes, and all of the real stuff we feel as Mets fans.
But I also want to keep readers informed on the latest developments in baseball research. Yesterday, Baseball Savant published new data about how a baseball spins out of a pitcher’s hand and tumbles toward the catcher’s mitt in a variety of directions. For the anti-analytics crowd, I can imagine the only spinning going on right now is your eyes rolling counterclockwise, but bear with me and let’s talk about what we can start to learn from this information.
As most baseball fans know, a fastball and a curveball have different spin profiles, with a curveball having topspin (picture the ball falling forward) versus a fastball which has backspin. The topspin of a curveball (combined with its velocity and gravity) allows it to break harder towards the ground.
In the first iteration of Statcast, we could measure the amount of spin on each pitch—how many times the baseball spins completely around as measured in revolutions per minute. From this, we quickly learned that Seth Lugo was a spin master with his curveball maintaining the highest average spin rate over the past five seasons among qualified pitchers.
But what we didn’t know — until now — is the precise direction of the spin. A curveball has topspin, sure, but does it move perfectly in the same direction? How much does the relative spin direction of a curveball relate to a slider or a fastball?
With new hardware installed in major league parks last season — powered by 12 Hawk-Eye cameras — we can now answer those questions with actual data versus inferences made previously by Statcast analysts.
Hopefully, the graphic above makes all of this easier to understand. You can see on the far left how a fastball and curveball generally spin around an axis. And in the box for Seth Lugo, you can see a funny looking circle (with clock dials) that has wedges sticking out of it. Each of these wedges and colors represent a different spin direction by pitch type. The circle is broken into “hours” to make it easier for people to understand the spin direction. For example, Lugo’s 4-seam spins at 10:45, while his curveball spins at 5:00.
When two pitches spin in exact opposite direction of each other like this, they are generally the most difficult for hitters to differentiate, and it is called pitch mirroring. As the saying “seeing dead red” goes, hitters look for subtle signs like the seams appearing as a red dot on the baseball to give them an indication of what type of pitch is coming. If two pitches are spinning around the same axis point in near perfect opposite directions, it makes it harder to see more white or red from the seam difference.
Lugo’s “gap” between his 4-seam spin direction (at 10:45) and curveball spin direction (at 5:00) was the largest 4-seam/curveball gap on the Mets last season—described better, he had the gap that was closest to “6 hours” or at complete opposite angles.
Obviously, this data is new, so it will take some time to gain a full understanding of what it all means, but based on principles of pitch mirroring and spin rate that are already well-researched, we have an initial idea of what to make from this information, which I hope the example above articulated.
MORNING BRIEFING
Below are the additional sections that were sent in the original email newsletter this morning. We later move the analysis section to the top of this page for linking purposes.
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
🗣 LINDOR MARKET: Ken Rosenthal noted yesterday the “Mets might be the only team in the position the Dodgers were with Betts, possessing both the wherewithal and major-market status to persuade Lindor to sign long-term [after a potential trade].”
✋ HAND MARKET: Add the Chicago White Sox to the teams interested in former Cleveland closer Brad Hand, who I wrote extensively about yesterday.
🍎 FITTING IN: Recently-signed catcher James McCann seems to be getting comfortable with his new teammates, a few of whom he has worked with in the past, as he explained on Wednesday to SNY: “Steven Matz and Brad Brach, we actually train together in the offseason. We all live in the Nashville area, so I’ve been talking to them for years. As teammates now, they’ve started to give me the rundown on just about everybody, and like I’ve said, I’ve been catching their bullpens so I kind of know them already.”
McCann on Matz: “There’s so much room for growth for him on just the mental side of the game and preparing for a lineup and things that I feel like I’m going to be able to help him with, as far as doing his scouting report and knowing how his particular stuff plays against another lineup.”
🔝 PROSPECTS: MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis believes Mets catching prospect Francisco Alvarez will be one of the top prospects in all of baseball by the end of 2023.
🍎 SAM McWILLIAMS: “He has changed the way he approaches his game,” Mets big league pitching coach Jeremy Hefner told Baseball America. “Certainly the results in 2019 weren’t great, but with the changes he made at Tampa Bay's alternate site, we expect his performance to be far better and far more consistent.”
📚ON THIS DATE IN 1992: The Franchise Tom Seaver is elected into the Basehall Hall-of-Fame.
Seaver received a record 98.8% of the vote on his first attempt, becoming the 23rd player elected to the Hall on his first appearance.
⚾️ Free agent starter Jake Odorizzi, who has been tied to the Mets, reportedly “expects to land a three-year contract in the $36 million to $42 million range,” per Ken Rosenthal.
⚾️ First baseman Justin Smoak agreed to a deal with the Yomiuri Giants.
⚾️ Yankees are trading left-handed reliever James Reeves to the Padres for outfielder Greg Allen, per Joel Sherman.
⚾️ Former Dodgers pitching great Tommy John has been hospitalized with COVID-19.
⚾️ The Colorado Rockies might be getting a new uniform next year, per Chris Cramer of SportsLogos.net.
⚾️ The Angels are interested in reuniting manager Joe Maddon with Cubs catcher Wilson Contreras, per Ken Rosenthal.
🔗 Free Agent Jake Odorizzi Primed For Bounce-Back Season, by Thomas Hall, MetsMerized Online: “Digging deeper into his woes from last season, it seems Odorizzi’s trio of injuries directly impacted both his low-80s splitter and cutter in a negative way, which also made his low-90s four-seamer less effective as well. Since he relies heavily on all three of these offerings, it makes plenty of sense as to why he failed to perform effectively during his brief time on the mound last season.”
🔗 Amazin Avenue’s Top 25 Mets Prospects: 10-6, by Steve Sypa on #10 Franklyn Kilomé: “He has a quick arm, and pushes off of the mound well, generating plus fastball velocity. Before his Tommy John surgery, the pitch sat in the low-to-mid-90s, topping out at 97 miles per hour, and it sat in that similar band after returning to the most post-surgery. In addition to velocity, the pitch had some glove-side movement and a bit of sink.”
🔗 The way too early Mets 26-man roster prediction for 2021 season, by Danny Abriano, SNY: “As Cohen and Alderson have said many times, they lack quality depth -- especially at the upper levels of the minors and on the 40-man roster. That lack of depth makes it easier to project who will make up the bench. Tomas Nido and Luis Guillorme are locks and J.D. Davis will be too unless he is traded. That leaves one spot that really needs to go to an outfielder who can handle center field.”
Thanks for reading! Talk to you tomorrow!
And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.
My eyes are spinning counter clock wise in my head - There should be a piece on Coachs who go by 'feel' and not the "book". For instance, how many times did a coach go by the book and get burned in certain situations. Or how many times a Coach pulled a pitcher for lefty righty matchups and got burned (probably going with the book lol)