🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
Bullpens are like cats, they like to do their own thing, and even when you think you know what you have, they will surprise you with something crazy the next day. For the Mets, Edwin Díaz wild ride since being traded to New York sums this analogy up best. Is he a 26-year-old closer ready to return to his elite self (which he did in 2020 over a small sample) or does he continue to remind us of Brodie’s ill-advised trades?
The Mets bullpen is currently projected by FanGraphs to produce the fifth most wins above replacement level in baseball next season. To help pitch in high leverage situations alongside Díaz, New York added right-hander Trevor May — who besides being a YouTube personality also throws really hard and strikes a lot of people out. Miguel Castro is another reliever who can spin the numbers on the radar gun (his fastball velocity has been rising since 2018). And who knows if Seth Lugo returns to the pen if the Mets are able to add starter depth.
All of this leads into our conversation today about free agent Brad Hand. Do the Mets need another back-of-the-bullpen reliever?
According to a recent report by Jon Heyman, they are at least interested in the left-handed closer released by the Cleveland Indians in October, as they decided to part ways with the 3-time All-Star rather than pay him $10 million in 2021. New York is also reportedly interested in the best reliever on the market Liam Hendriks. So, clearly, the Mets are open to making additional improvements to their bullpen.
Does Cleveland know something about Hand that should concern us?
Cleveland has become a pitching factory of sorts. Their success in identifying and developing talent has resulted in them having the best pitching staff in baseball over the past five years. They are using a variety of tools to improve throwing motions, refine pitch grips, and implement evidence-based plans for their hurlers, as described recently by FiveThirtyEight.
While the Indians acquired Brad Hand in a 2018 trade (so he wasn’t a development project), cost-saving or not (and they are definitely cost-saving), they are an organization who is well-suited to evaluate whether the 30-year-old is worth $10 million next season.
“It was a really difficult decision,” Indians President Chris Antonetti said (via The Athletic). “He’s been such a critical part of our team for the last few seasons. He did an extraordinary job in his role as a closer and also was a leader in the clubhouse, specifically within the bullpen group. In the end, we did take some time to explore the trade market for Brad and weren’t able to find a fit for him. That led to the decision to decline the option.”
Apparently, other teams didn’t think it was worth trading for Hand to guarantee his services at $10 million next season either. Perhaps this is entirely based on competitive market dynamics — why give up an asset to trade for a pitcher who you can simply claim on waivers — but nobody ended up claiming him on waivers.
Based on early free agent returns, the market is moving incredibly slow, particularly for relievers, as teams pivot to younger arms who can cock back and throw in the upper nineties with ease. In other words, while Cleveland was being cheap to let Hand walk, his market value is probably less than $10 million.
Ok, so we’ve buried the lede enough: why are there concerns over a closer who saved all 16 of his save opportunities last season (imagine that, Mets fans) and pitched to a 2.05 ERA?
Look at his fastball velocity. His four-seamer has dropped from a peak of 93.8 MPH in 2018 to 91.4 MPH in 2020. In each of the past two years his year-to-year drop in fastball velocity ranked in the top 15th percentile of qualified pitchers; that is he had one of the largest velo drops in baseball, two years in a row. As a result, one of his most used pitches is getting less swings and misses. His whiff percentage on his 4-seamer has gone from 27.1% two seasons ago to just 9.4% in his most recent campaign, and that number only got worse as 2020 progressed.
To compensate for lost jump on his fastball, Hand increased usage of his sinker, which he grips similar to his slider with a slight variation. While he was able to miss some extra bats with the heavier fastball — allowing his overall K% to remain relatively close to his previous marks — opposing hitters slugged .625 against it.
Meanwhile, his slider has steadily been losing spin over the past few years, which can either be a sign of something good or bad, depending on how the pitch looks in relation to his fastball (Note: This is something I want to spend more time looking at with Hand, as his slider spin relative to his fastball spin follows an interesting dynamic, but I will save that for if the Mets sign him). While he has lost some drop on the offering, his horizontal movement remains excellent. And last season, Hand held opponents to a measly .167 slugging percentage against his slider, half the .310 slugging percentage off it from the season before.
Using his 79 MPH breaking pitch in steady flow with his fastball has allowed Hand to maintain positive results despite the dip in his velocity. But as he turns 31 and hopes the back of his baseball card numbers lead to a lucrative deal this offseason, he might find himself out of luck. Each year his fastball and slider become more hittable, and there is no real sign of his sinker becoming an effective third or replacement pitch. Sooner or later, it all could catch up to him.
UPSHOT: We still don’t know if the 3-batter minimum rule will return next season. But we do know the Mets lack a major league left-hander in their bullpen. Hand has pitched considerably better against like-handed hitters, which is a bit odd for someone who has had closer success. Perhaps in the right role, with flamethrowers around him, he can offer a different look to opposing lineups as Jared Porter assembles his first bullpen as general manager.
MORNING BRIEFING
Below are the additional sections that were sent in the original email newsletter this morning. We later move the analysis section to the top of this page for linking purposes.
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds...
🍎 COACHING: The Mets announced their 2021 coaching staff on Tuesday. Luis Rojas will bring back the majority of his coaches from 2020. Noteworthy, the team promoted Ricky Meinhold to major league assistant pitching coach, in addition to his duties as minor league pitching coordinator. New York also has Jeremy Accardo in the same role, with Jeremy Hefner the actual pitching coach.
3 pitching coaches? If you’re wondering why the Mets will have two assistants to Hefner, Jeffrey Paternostro of Baseball Prospectus noted on Twitter, “This is functionally what Bannister was doing in Boston. It’s not that uncommon.”
Remind me who Ricky Meinhold is:Meinhold worked for the Cardinals as a minor league coach, pro scout and pitching analyst for seven seasons before joining the Mets last offseason. He mixes analytics, tech, and traditional scouting/communication.
Meinhold in a Baseball America interview: “I feel like [the Mets] had a pretty decent foundation on the analytical side but they were not confident in it, so I wanted to build that confidence in them. I’d be lying to you if I said I didn’t get this job because I’m fairly decent with analytics and tech. I mean, I'm a baseball guy first and foremost and I realized a long time ago that if I didn’t learn this stuff I was going to be pretty much useless.”
FULL FIELD STAFF:
Manager: Luis Rojas
Bench coach: Dave Jauss
Hitting coach: Chili Davis
Pitching coach: Jeremy Hefner
First-base/outfield/baserunning coach: Tony Tarasco
Third-base/infield coach: Gary DiSarcina
Bullpen coach: Ricky Bones
Assistant hitting coach: Tom Slater
Assistant pitching coach: Jeremy Accardo
Assistant pitching coach/Minor League pitching coordinator: Ricky Meinhold
Major League field coordinator/catching coach: Brian Schneider
🗣 SPRINGER WATCH: The Mets are “optimistic” they will eventually land free agent outfielder George Springer, per the NY Post.
👀 VIEWING PARTY: Mets are among the teams who will be in attendance for Corey Kluber’s throwing session next week, per MLB.com. They also attended James Paxton’s workout last month.
🗣 ODORIZZI: There has been “very minimal (if any) contact between Mets and free agent starter Jake Odorizzi camp since it got briefly serious-ish about a month ago,” per Andy Martino. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have “serious” interest, per Mark Feinsand.
🍎 STEVE COHEN COMPLAINT: While the Hedge Fund manager has been the darling of Mets fans since taking over as owner of the team, his past actions (and perhaps current) can’t be overlooked. From a report published on Tuesday by the New York Times: “a recently unsealed gender discrimination complaint filed by a former top manager for Mr. Cohen offers a glimpse into his volatile temper and what some women have said is an openly sexist and hostile culture at his Point72 Asset Management hedge fund company.”
💰 MONEY, MONEY: Shortly after the NY Times piece broke, the NY Post reported Cohen’s hedge fund returned ~17 percent gains in 2020. The Mets owner is set to take home “in the range of $1.6 billion — or roughly two-thirds the $2.4 billion the 64-year-old paid for the Queens team in August after an earlier $2.6 billion deal fell apart in February.”
⑳ NUMBER: Howard Johnson was asked on Twitter about Pete Alonso wearing his number: “I’ve never met Pete but all that I hear is that we have a LOT in common…Like Tommy Agee once told me ‘you gotta be able to hit to wear that number!’”
📚 ON THIS DATE IN 2004: Mets sign free agent closer Braden Looper, who would go on to appear in 131 games for New York and save 57 games. In looking back at how the free agent market evolved in 2004, via the NY Times: “The Mets planned to be patient this winter, expecting to find hidden treasures on the free-agent market when the pool of players expanded in late December. When the Florida Marlins did not offer a contract to reliever Braden Looper, the Mets pursued him aggressively. Now they have him.”
⚾️ Reliever Blake Treinen is returning to the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers on a two-year, $17.5 million contract with a club option that’s worth $8 million, per ESPN.
⚾️ Free agent outfielder Robbie Grossman agreed to a two-year, $10 million deal with the Detroit Tigers, per The Athletic.
⚾️ MLB sent a memo to minor league teams on Monday informing them that the 2021 minor league season at Double-A and the Class A levels will be delayed, per Baseball America.
⚾️ 93-year-old Dodgers legend Tommy Lasorda is returning home after a lengthy stay in the hospital.
⚾️ Hall-of-Famer Hank Aaron got vaccinated against COVID-19 in Georgia to send a message that the shots are safe.
🔗 Mets should consider if Corey Kluber is a worthwhile risk, by Joel Sherman, NY Post: “The Mets are not in on Japanese ace Tomoyuki Sugano, but they are considering other free-agent starters such as Jake Odorizzi. And this is an area in which Steve Cohen’s bankroll could make a difference. The Mets could sign, say, Odorizzi and if they like what they see from Kluber, Cohen could write a bigger check than others. If it succeeds, really great. If not, Cohen could easily write it off as the kind of one-year, not-huge-money (for him) risk that the Wilpons would not take.”
🔗 Mets best seasons by position, by Anthony DiComo, MLB: “David Wright is the greatest third baseman in Mets history. Tom Seaver is the best starting pitcher. But what about the best seasons by a Met at those positions? While the Wrights and Seavers of the world can certainly lay claim to their share, the Mets also have a long history of lesser-known players making appearances alongside the all-time greats on single-season leaderboards.”
🔗 Cooperstown Crunch: Without Surefire Candidates, Others Gaining Traction, by Tim Ryder, MetsMerized Online: “According to Thibodaux’s 2021 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker, with 30.8 percent of ballots logged thus far (as of Monday evening), Barry Bonds (73.8 percent) and Roger Clemens(73.0 percent) are closest to the 75 percent benchmark necessary for enshrinement. Curt Schilling is next in line at 72.1 percent and Scott Rolen (68.9 percent) brings up the rear of potential 2021 electees.”
Thanks for reading! Talk to you tomorrow!
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My man! Finally someone gives me analytics that have some meaning to them, oh happy day. Thank you. Im so tired of these clowns with their graphs and pie charts telling me nothing.
Ive been on the Hand bandwagon, not anymore and now I know why the Mets haven't made him a priority. These red flags you've mentioned are REAL concerns and with our record regarding RPs I wouldnt go near him. Great work and great explanation. You just moved to my, go to list. Carry on!
Need to sign Hand - why they still thinks Diaz can pitch for Mets is unbelievable ! The Mets now have more coach’s during a game for 25 players then a NFL team does for 45 !