Good Morning,
We finally made it. After an extra cold winter in New York that was also clouded by the lockout, baseball returns for what should be an exciting season for the Mets.
We can only hope the weather cooperates. First pitch has already been pushed back from 4:05 to 7:05 to try to find a window of clear skies. As of this morning, there is only a 15% chance of rain after 7:00, so fingers crossed they can sneak the game in.
In today’s issue, I will catch you up on everything you need to know for Opening Day, including a detailed breakdown of the 40-man roster, an overview of 2022 rule changes, some background on the Amazins’ first opponent and a few other news and notes.
There’s a lot to cover. But first, let me make an Opening Day plea for you to sign-up for the full Mets Fix experience by subscribing at a discounted rate of $40 for the 2022 season. You can also gift a subscription to a friend. I appreciate your support!
Raise your hand if you predicted this a few weeks ago: Tylor Megill will take the mound as the Opening Day starter. While this created plenty of buzz on Twitter, it’s a logical choice to keep the rest of the rotation on their regular cadence coming out of Spring Training.
Megill didn’t allow an earned run in 6.2 Grapefruit innings. He will look to build off an up-and-down rookie campaign in which he went 4–6 with a 4.52 ERA over 18 starts. The projection systems like his ERA to come down a bit this year.
I will talk more about Megill’s counterpart, Patrick Corbin, in a bit. As a preview, it is telling that Megill arguably had a better 2021 season than the Nats’ top starter.
📝 40-MAN ROSTER UPDATE
Let’s review the 40-man roster, as the Mets made several moves yesterday in preparation of Opening Day. The graphic above includes luxury tax projections through April. You can read how I calculate these numbers in much more detail here.
▪️ Rosters are expanded to 28 players through April, allowing the Mets to carry both outfielder Travis Jankowski and left-hander Chasen Shreve.
▪️ To make room on the 40-man roster for Jankowski and Shreve, right-hander Jordan Yamamoto and infielder Travis Blankenhorn were both designated for assignment.
▪️ The Mets also signed right-hander John Curtiss to a one-year deal, which includes a team option for 2023. He is recovering from Tommy John surgery, so the tall, 29-year-old isn’t expected to pitch this season, and was immediately placed on the 60-Day IL.
SO WHY SIGN HIM? He essentially becomes a stash signing, similar to the type the Dodgers like to make, as the Mets pay him while he recovers and hope he returns to the form that saw him post a 2.48 ERA for Miami over the first half of last season. If it works out, they get him on the cheap. If not, they decline his option next year and cost a few pennies to Cohen for the ride.
🤕 INJURY UPDATES
▪️ The Mets will decide whether Max Scherzer is ready to go on Friday based, in part, on how he fields his position in pre-game drills on Thursday. “It’s whether Scherzer pitches Friday, later in the rotation or we decide to push it back until after the off day in New York,” manager Buck Showalter told reporters yesterday. “Those are kind of the options we’re looking at.”
▪️ Brandon Nimmo’s status still remains a mystery. Several options are on the table, or perhaps each of the options listed below, as the Mets will surely slow-drip his injury status to the following sequence:
Should Nimmo reach the IL, the Mets will keep Starling Marte in right field, move Mark Canha to center and open up a spot in left for either Dom Smith or Jeff McNeil.
In case you were only casually following the rule changes implemented during the offseason, or need a refresher course, here is what you need to know.
⚾️ EXPANDED POSTSEASON
A key negotiation point during the lockout, the two sides agreed to add one more playoff team to each league. That means there will be six playoff spots in the National League, comprised of three division winners and three wild cards.
The two division winners with the best records from each league will receive a first-round bye. So in a fantasy world where the Mets win the NL East by 10 games, they will still need to pay attention to the NL Central and NL West division leaders to secure a bye.
The division winner with the third best record (last season that would have been Atlanta) plays the lowest-seeded wild card team. The other two wild card teams are then matched up against each other. These teams compete in a best-of-three series on consecutive days at the team with the better record’s home ballpark.
In short, if you win the division and finish with a top-two record in your league, you skip a round in the playoffs and play a team that just used their best starters and worked through their bullpen on three preceding days.
⚾️ RULE CHANGES
Several of the rule changes you probably read about this winter will NOT go into effect until 2023, at the earliest (such as the pitch clock, banning the shift, and bigger bases).
The two biggest rule changes you will see this season are:
the designated hitter in the National League
the extra-innings rule that places a runner on second base to start each frame.
Seven-inning doubleheaders are a thing of the past, so don’t worry about that.
Three things to know about the Nationals…
❶ EXPECTATIONS: Following a 65–97 finish last season, the Nats will continue their rebuild this year, with FanGraphs projecting them to win 73 games and finish dead last in the National League East.
Washington is a strange story of a team not far removed from a World Series championship, who boasts one of the best young players in baseball in Juan Soto, but finds themselves in a rebuild after the majority of their top performers over the past decade have found new homes, retired or have struggled with injury (Stephen Strasburg).
❷ TOP OF THE ROTATION: Veteran left-hander Patrick Corbin carries the mantle as the Opening Day starter. He is looking to bounce back off a dreadful 2021 campaign that saw him go 9–16 with a 5.82 ERA, boosted by an inflated home run rate and poor command. Numbers that were somehow worse than his forgettable 2020 campaign.
The success of the Nationals this season will partly rest on whether Corbin can return to his 2017–2019 form.
❸ PROSPECT WATCH: The additions of catcher Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray from the trade last July that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers should start to pay dividends in 2022. Washington fans are also eagerly awaiting the debut of top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli.
Some more news and notes from yesterday…
🌮 FREE FOOD: Eduardo Escobar endeared himself to his new teammates and staff by treating them to dinner at Fogo de Chão in Washington.
💰 NO OFFER: Brandon Nimmo said he was never approached about a contract extension this offseason, joking, “I can’t really offer it to myself. I’ve expressed my interest in saying here. Nothing has come my way.”
🦚 PEACOCK: The Mets will appear on Peacock’s new exclusive broadcast schedule at 12:00 PM (yes, you read that time correctly) against the Marlins on June 26.
🎰 SPORTSBOOK: Caesars Sports signed a multi-year partnership to make Caesars Sportsbook the official sports betting partner of the Mets. The partnership features plans to open a new sportsbook lounge at Citi Field.
ACTION: As of yesterday, the Mets have received the most action to win the World Series, leading in total number of tickets and total dollars wagered, according to Caesars Sportsbook.
🍎 ALL IN THE FAMILY: Yankees shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa revealed to reporters that he is actually a distant relative (fourth cousin) to Ralph Kiner. “I never told anybody this, but the one game I went to Shea, it was Ralph Kiner Night,” Kiner-Falefa told NJ Advance Media.
🗓 UP NEXT: Max Scherzer (knocks on wood) makes his official Mets debut against his former team tomorrow night on Apple TV+. You don’t need a subscription to watch. You can simply download the app on your favorite streaming device or navigate to tv.apple.com in an internet browser and watch for free.
🔗 Yankees, Mets role reversal creates ideal baseball scenario, by Jon Heyman, NY Post: “The Yankees and Mets are back with the rest of MLB just a week later than we hoped, starting Thursday and Friday with Opening Days, and in some ways you may not recognize which team is which. The Mets are suddenly the big spender, the Yankees the relative saver.”
🔗 ‘Buck is perfect for this job’: How the Mets can become a Buck Showalter team, by Tim Britton, The Athletic ($): “The Mets will take the field Thursday at Nationals Park for the first time, formally, as a Buck Showalter team. What does it mean, though, to be a Buck Showalter team? What are the telltale signs of Showalter’s influence, and how can they apply to this year’s New York Mets?”
🔗 The eyes have it: Max Scherzer is something special, by Tim Healey, Newsday: “He has his brown-eye side, as the all-business, all-world, famously intense pitcher who has blended old-school feel with new-school data to rack up three Cy Young Awards, eight All-Star honors and an on-field resume that puts him on the short list for the best pitcher of his generation and makes him a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame.”
And we leave you with Juan Soto saying “it’s going to be fun” to hit off Max Scherzer. Oh really?!
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This is my 53rd (yes thats right) opening Mets day. As a Mets fan can relish in the fact that the opening day starters were the best in MLB. Seaver, Gooden, Glavine, Santana, Martinez, Harvey, even Mr "HR" Bart Colon ! This year its Tyler Megill and all i have to say is its opening day - LETS GO METS !
Guess there’s really only one thing to say... Let’s Go Mets!