The Metropolitan: Fitting Trevor Bauer into a window
And an explanation of the GameStop story
Good Morning,
Today we will take a different look in thinking about signing Trevor Bauer, but we start with the news.
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
🗣 BAUER WATCH: ESPN’s Jeff Passan likens the Dodgers to the “one at the bar at 2:00 AM” in the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes. The MLB insider believes if Bauer signs a one-year deal, he will decide to play in his hometown.
TWO-TEAM RACE: Appearing on WFAN yesterday, Jon Heyman said it is pretty much down to the Dodgers or Mets for Bauer, with New York’s offer in the short-term range of 3 or (maybe) 4 years.
✍️ SIGNING: Left-handed reliever Aaron Loup will reportedly earn $3 million on his one-year deal.
LUXURY TAX: With Loup, we estimate the team to have approximately $33.7 million in breathing room under the luxury tax. However, Andy Martino says the team is using an internal number that would put them closer to $25 million under. It’s possible the Mets are giving themselves some slack for in-season additions.
❓SURVEY: In the second part of their MLB agent survey, The Athletic noted some interesting findings related to the Mets:
FUTURE GM: Ian Levin, the Mets senior director of baseball operations, was listed among the names of people who haven’t been a GM before but should be within two years.
TOUGH NEGOTIATOR: “Two agents pointed to Mets president Sandy Alderson, a Marine who served in Vietnam before graduating from Harvard Law School and beginning a long career in the baseball industry: ‘Sandy’s pretty tough. But not in a bad way. He’s just tough.’”
🔝 PROSPECTS: The Mets had four prospects appear on Keith Law’s Top 100 MLB Prospects for 2021 list. The ranking that jumps out is young catcher Fransisco Alvarez, who landed the highest at 19. Ronny Mauricio (32), Matthew Allan (90), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (94) also made the list (we pulled out the names so you don’t have to click on the link and see any top prospects traded away… Thank you, Brodie).
NUMBER 1️⃣: Jacob deGrom was ranked the top starting pitcher by MLB Network.
⚾️ ARRIETA: The Mets will be one of the teams in attendance to watch Jake Arrieta throw on Friday, per Andy Martino.
🍎 OUR OWN: Ty Kelly has signed with the Kansas City Monarchs.
TY: “I look forward to the opportunity the Monarchs are providing me this season. I believe I can be the dryest, most sarcastic player in the clubhouse and possibly even the league, and I’ll do whatever it takes to make my teammates roll their eyes at me on a consistent basis.”
❤️ Thanks from Steven Matz
Explain this GameStop thing
💰You read this blog to learn about baseball and not Wall Street, but how can we not cover the craziness surrounding GameStop, Steve Cohen, and the power of amateur traders to notice a stock manipulation and use their collective power to make a difference?
Several of you have reached out to ask for a quick explainer on what is going on, so let’s try to use a baseball example to have some fun with it.
🎟 Suppose last February, I reached out to a Mets season ticket holder and asked to borrow 4 tickets valued at $50 each. I then sold those tickets for a total of $200.
A month later, with the pandemic spreading to North America, it becomes clear that nobody is going to a baseball game anytime soon (something I knew because I was tracking the spread of the virus overseas).
The plan would be for me to wait for it to become obvious there won’t be fans in the stands and then buy the 4 tickets I had borrowed back at $1 each since they no longer have any real value. I would then return them to the original season ticket holder while netting myself a nice profit (I borrowed 4 tickets, sold them for $200, and bought them back at $4 to return to the season ticket holder).
This is a common gamble against the price of an asset that makes hedge fund managers rich and scenes from the TV show Billions exciting.
But suppose before I could “cover my short” or buy the tickets for a lower price, a large group of Mets fans wearing The 7 Line hoodies and chatting in the MetsMerized Online comments section notice that a bunch of people like me have been borrowing tickets to the point there are more outstanding tickets than seats in Citi Field. In other words, it would be impossible to buy enough tickets in the future to pay the number of borrowed ones back.
These Mets fans decide this is silly and collectively purchase as many tickets on the open market as possible, and then refuse to sell those tickets, pushing their asking price up.
Now, if I want to buy the tickets I borrowed back, it will cost me $250 for each ticket. Instead of making a lot of money, I have lost money.
Steve Cohen gets involved because he reads this newsletter everyday and really likes me (I don’t think he actually does, but let’s continue to have fun with this). He gives me an influx of cash to help me cover the inevitable loss that is coming when I have to buy the tickets back that I borrowed. And it turns out he was also betting against the price of Mets tickets.
And there you have it. Meanwhile, Barstool’s David Portney, who was believed to be part of A-Rod’s bid to purchase the Mets, got into a Twitter spar with Cohen about all of this. There are bigger political discussions going on. Cohen has indicated this will have no impact on his Mets dealings. And we will leave it at that.
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
As rumors continue to swirl about the Mets’ interest in Trevor Bauer, I thought it would be a good time to look at New York’s rotation in 2022. Yes, 2022. Believe it or not, decisions you make today impact tomorrow.
There has been plenty written about the off-field implications of signing Bauer, as we did here. Today, we will focus on why the Mets might be interested in signing the free agent starter from a roster construction standpoint. Whether you are in favor of bringing him to New York or not, hopefully this gives you some context into their potential thinking.
If Cohen’s new team enters the 2021 season without adding another starter on a multi-year deal, where does that leave them next winter?
What does the Mets’ rotation look like in 2022?
The Mets have two starters who we can pretty much write in Sharpie as part of the rotation in 2022: Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco.
Beyond that, there is uncertainty. While David Peterson had an impressive rookie campaign, in a deeper rotation, he could be replaceable. Both Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard are due to become free agents, and Steven Matz is now gone. That leaves Joey Lucchesi and perhaps Thomas Szapucki as internal depth options, with top prospect Matthew Allan still a few years away. And maybe you still want to pull Seth Lugo into the mix (but ideally he would work out of the bullpen).
This means if the Mets don’t add another starter this year, they will enter the 2022 offseason with perhaps three spots to fill in the rotation.
Who are the top free agent starters next winter?
Looking at the names, it is an impressive list. But when you consider their age, backgrounds and potential cost, the options are less appealing.
Is Clayton Kershaw really going to leave Los Angeles in the twilight of his career? How do you evaluate Justin Verlander who will be returning from Tommy John surgery? Will a 37-year-old Max Scherzer still be worth a big investment? Or a 38-year-old Zack Greinke?
That leaves two Lances (Lynn and McCullers Jr.) and two Mets (Thor and Stroman) as four of the best options in the starting pitcher market next offseason.
If you are turned off by paying Bauer, how does 4-years, $80 million sound on Lance Lynn?
How much money will the Mets have to work with?
The $210 million question: where will the Mets stand relative to the luxury tax next offseason?
The problem: we don’t know!
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) is set to expire following this season, meaning we are headed toward a bitter fight between the owners and players that could lead to a work stoppage. While many speculate the competitive balance tax will be relaxed in a new agreement, everyone is guessing at this point.
If the luxury tax does return to a level similar to 2021, the Mets could be pushing against it if they spend another $30 million in payroll this offseason on multi-year deals (and this is even if they don’t sign Bauer but use their extra payroll elsewhere).
In short, there is not enough money coming off the books in 2022 (i.e. letting most of their own free agents walk) to offset the amount of new money that will need to be invested to extend both Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto, while adding back Robinson Cano’s AAV.
If the Mets are searching for 2-3 new starters next offseason, they might be bidding with a payroll that is already over $200 million in size. Whether that matters or not is up to Mr. Cohen and the rules of a new CBA.
What does this all mean?
This is why signing Bauer on a short(ish)-term deal could be advantageous. With him under contract, that would give the Mets at least three guaranteed starters in 2022.
Putting money aside and focusing on roster construction, their need to fill out the back of the rotation becomes less critical under this scenario. Whether you like the 2022 free agent class or not, the question in negotiation becomes, How important is it to add a fourth starter?
Bringing money back into the equation, the Mets could burn a year on Bauer’s contract by sliding the first year into the gap created from wiping Cano’s salary off the books in 2021, and then evaluate the remaining 2-3 years of the deal relative to the contract structure it would take to lock up an alternative, such as Lance Lynn or whatever free agent name you want to pick in 2022.
Essentially, you can sign Bauer and have a Top-3 of deGrom, Bauer, and Carrasco for 2021 and 2022 (at least), or you could roll with what you have in 2021 (maybe adding a depth starter) and try to find a top-of-the-rotation piece in 2022 (whether that’s Lynn, Syndergaard or someone else) that would probably cost you less in AAV than Bauer but more in years on the start of a long-term contract.
Most free agents are overpaid when you get to the back-end of their long-term deals. Bauer gives the Mets an opportunity to add a top starter who might not weigh on their books for as long as it typically takes to sign someone of his stature, and it reduces the need to enter into a long-term agreement with another free agent starter next offseason.
As teams, like the Nationals, try to defer the actual salary paid in contracts to reduce their net present value, from a roster and AAV perspective, signing Bauer to a shorter-term deal could be a way to front-load the cost of acquiring a potential front-end starter, and fit him into the Mets’ competitive window with Jacob deGrom right now.
⚾️ The Brewers have promoted Sara Goodrum to minor league hitting coordinator, making her the first woman in baseball history to serve in that role, per Adam McCalvy.
⚾️ Colorado is in trade discussions with St. Louis about the possibility of trading star third baseman Nolan Arenado, per The Athletic.
⚾️ Meanwhile, the Cardinals are bringing back Adam Wainwright on what is believed to be a one-year deal, per Jon Heyman.
⚾️ Washington is signing catcher Alex Avila to a one-year deal, per Ken Rosenthal.
⚾️ The Reds have been discussing the possibility of trading for former Met Amed Rosario, per Mike Puma.
🔗 One Met believes a change of scenery will be good for Steven Matz, by Pat Ragazzo, MetsMerized Online: “It’s kind of the first time he has known that someone really wants him there,” Brach told Metsmerized in an exclusive phone interview. “Not so much that the Mets didn’t want him, but it’s always nice to know that you’re wanted elsewhere and it’ll be a good refresher for Steve.”
🔗 Breaking Down the Mets’ Return Package for Steven Matz, by Jacob Resnick, MetsMerized Online: “In Sean Reid-Foley and Yennsy Diaz, the Mets picked up two depth righties that join the 40-man roster with usable minor league options in 2021. They also acquired Josh Winckowski, another right-hander, who should reach the upper minors this season.”
We leave you with this awesome footage of the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League…
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The Mets brass must have read my comments about Matz stinking - they finally got rid of him !I dont get why he leaves town as a hero either - this one guy you could say cost them a wild card last year - P.U. Good riddance !