Good Morning,
If you somehow managed to miss all the Mets scores and news this weekend, consider yourself fortunate. They were swept by the Dodgers, losing the first two in extra innings. And they got some bad medical news on Jacob deGrom (and possibly Javy Báez).
As the Mets took a red-eye to San Francisco last night to play the best team in baseball less than 24 hours after Sunday’s game ended in New York, they find themselves 2.5 games back of Atlanta, who grabbed sole possession of first place for the first time this season.
We’ll catch you up on all the latest news, and do a deep dive on where this team is at right now. But first, let’s recap last night’s depressing action.
⚾️ IN SHORT: If games against the Dodgers fill you with dread, that makes sense — Los Angeles is now 21-4 in their last 25 against the Mets. Last night, the Dodgers scored early and often, going up 6-0 after 2 innings behind Max Scherzer. Carlos Carrasco had his worst outing of the year, lasting just 2 innings and giving up homers to Justin Turner, Will Smith and Max Muncy. New pickup Jake Reed controlled the damage with 3 scoreless innings, but Yennsy Diaz and Geoff Hartlieb both gave up 3 runs to make it a blowout, before turning to position players (Brandon Drury and Kevin Pillar) to mop things up in a 14-4 Dodgers win. [Box Score]
🔑 KEY MOMENT: We’ll spare you the gif of one of Muncy’s home runs, and point instead to the bottom of the fourth. Down 6-1, the Mets loaded the bases with 1 out. Michael Conforto grounded out to drive in a run, but then Pete Alonso struck out to end the threat. It was the last time the game was sort-of within reach.
3 TAKEAWAYS
❶ 0-FOR-RISP: It’s hard not to sound like a broken record when the song remains the same. The Mets went 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position, stranding 10 men on base.
❷ CONFORTO HAD A GOOD WEEKEND: Michael Conforto went 2-for-4 with a walk and an RBI to raise his average to .220 on the season. Over the weekend series, he went 4-for-10 with a HR. For the month of August, Conforto is slashing .333/.429 with 1.000 OPS (14-for-42).
❸ SHORT BENCH: Down 6-0 in the second inning, the Mets decided against using a pinch-hitter for Carlos Carrasco with runners on first and second and one out, even though they planned on replacing him in the next inning. Manager Luis Rojas told reporters after the game he didn’t want to use a pinch-hitter with only a four-man bench (Carrasco would execute a successful sacrifice bunt). And good thing Rojas didn’t because he ended up using both Brandon Drury and Kevin Pillar as pitchers (!) in the ninth inning 🤪.
🧑🏫 SOUND SMART: The Mets used two position players to pitch in a game for the first time in franchise history (h/t Jacob Resnick).
🧑🏫 SOUND SMARTER: Will Smith has as many home runs (3) at Citi Field this year as Dom Smith, James McCann, and Michael Conforto (h/t D.J. Short).
⏭ NEXT UP: As if playing the Dodgers wasn’t fun enough, the Mets immediately start a three-game series in San Francisco against the first-place Giants, who are 40-18 at home this season.
MATCH-UPS: Like this past weekend, the Mets will face an opponent’s top three starters in Kevin Gausman (11-5, 2.29 ERA), Logan Webb (6-3, 2.96 ERA), and Anthony DeSclafani (11-5, 3.29 ERA). They will counter with Rich Hill (6-4, 4.05 ERA), Marcus Stroman (8-11, 2.78 ERA), and Tylor Megill (1-2, 3.42 ERA).
BULLPEN RESTED: In using Yennsy Díaz for a third consecutive day and recent call-ups Geoff Hartlieb and Jake Reed, along with Drury and Pillar, the Mets head west with a back end of the bullpen that’s a lot more rested than they were one day ago.
🛑 SHUTDOWN: By now you’ve probably heard, but Jacob deGrom will remain shut down for two more weeks as he tries to recover from inflammation in his right elbow (more in a bit).
😄 GETTING CLOSE: Meanwhile, shortstop Francisco Lindor (strained oblique) appears on the verge of returning to the lineup, telling reporters on Sunday he feels “great” and he’s “happy with how the trainers have done things.” Manager Luis Rojas left open the possibility Lindor could skip a rehab assignment and be back by the next homestand.
🤕 WAIT AND SEE: Trade deadline acquisition Javy Báez was placed on the 10-Day IL on Friday and still hasn’t returned to baseball activities. His timetable for return will depend on how he responds to rest and treatment over the next few days. He is eligible to return from the IL on August 22, but manager Luis Rojas says until he can take grounders, he’s “not close.”
BEST LAID PLANS: This means that Baez, acquired in part to temporarily replace Lindor at shortstop, could return after him.
🏥 MORE INJURIES: Right-hander Drew Smith was placed on the 10-Day IL with right shoulder inflammation. In other roster moves, the Mets optioned Albert Almora Jr. to the minor leagues, and recalled relievers Geoff Hartlieb and Jake Reed.
🗣 SPEAKING OF ALMORA: In designating and then trading Billy McKinney to the Dodgers last month, the Mets chose to keep Almora over him. While the latter offers excellent defense and has options (McKinney does not), he also has a .355 OPS. The Mets got to see their former outfielder in person this series against Los Angeles, during which McKinney went 1-for-9 with three walks and a run. On the plus side, the Mets got prospect Carlos Rincon back for him in the deal, and he’s looked good in Binghamton.
🍎 GOOD START: Recent-signing Josh Reddick is 5-13 with two extra base hits for Triple-A Syracuse since signing a minor league deal last week.
😡 STILL MAD: Justin Turner is still motivated (as we saw last night) to play the team that non-tendered him several years back, "I don’t think it ever goes away. I think you still want to go out and perform well and try to prove that they made a mistake by letting you go."
4 thoughts from the weekend
It was a weekend that went from terrible to worse, beginning with the news that Jacob deGrom could be lost for the season and culminating in a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. Let’s talk about some of the weekend’s biggest takeaways.
❶ The Dodgers as a measuring stick
▪️ IRONIC: While completely logical, it’s a bit ironic this past weekend will be used as evidence for how far the Mets are from competing against the defending champions. Why? Because the Dodgers we saw on Friday and Saturday were a different team than the Dodgers who have played most of this season. Entering the series against the Mets, LA had lost 11 straight extra-inning games and were one of the worst teams in baseball in one-run affairs. If you happened to watch Saturday’s post-game show on Sportsnet LA — after the Dodgers had won their second consecutive one-run game in extras — you would have heard an excited announcing crew remark how this weekend finally proved the 2021 Dodgers were ready to kick it into the next gear—in other words, battling to win close games in extra innings against a “competitive” team was a mile marker for them, at least so far this year.
▪️ SIMILAR: The Dodgers played sloppy defense, had some questionable managerial decisions, and lost yet another starter to injury, but swept the Mets thanks to a few timely hits and an offensive explosion on Sunday. If you ignored the standings, the Dodgers have ironically had a somewhat similar season to the Mets: they are one of the few teams who has suffered as many injuries, one of their star outfielders is hitting .180, and they will try to navigate August with only two credible starters (Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer). But of course, you can’t ignore the standings, and even with the Dodgers setting a franchise record for the number of pitchers they have used this season, they continue to find new contributors from out of nowhere (manager Dave Roberts recently admitted he had never heard of some of their bullpen hands before they joined the team), or from the ashes of the Nationals’ fire sale.
▪️ MODEL FRANCHISE: The point being: bad luck and injury isn’t reserved for the Mets, as much as it feels that way. Remember, Sandy Alderson was ready to break the bank for Trevor Bauer, until, fortunately, Bauer decided to sign close to home. What separates the Dodgers from the Mets isn’t as much what they’ve done this season as it is years of investment in scouting, development, and player acquisition. They can afford to be missing a Mookie Betts (who has battled a hip injury all season long) and a Clayton Kershaw (whose timetable to return is similar to deGrom’s) and a Trevor Bauer (we won’t go there) when they have a possible Cy Young Award winner in Walker Buehler, a budding star in Will Smith, and the prospects to trade for a Scherzer and Trea Turner. The Mets want to model themselves after the Dodgers, and Steve Cohen promises to spend the money to try to do so, but we are only in Year 1, as this weekend reminded us.
❷ Jacob deGrom out until at least mid-September
▪️ HOW MANY MORE STARTS? At this point, it feels as if we are just waiting until the Mets announce that deGrom is out for the season. We learned this weekend the former Cy Young Award winner won’t pick up a baseball for a few more weeks. That puts him into September before he can start working his way back into game form. Assuming he somehow comes back by the middle of next month, you’re looking at the star right-hander making three, maybe four more starts this regular season. If you believe in deGrom coming back, it emphasizes the importance of the Mets staying above water during the toughest stretch of their schedule this week, but if you are more of the pessimistic type, it leads to our next point…
▪️ CURIOUS DEADLINE. Even if we give the Mets the benefit of the doubt that they truly didn’t know on July 31 how long their top pitcher would be sidelined, it’s still questionable the way they navigated the deadline given the uncertainty surrounding his return date. Without a healthy deGrom, the Mets are, at best, a de facto, NL-East playoff team with long odds to beat the Milwaukee Brewers. In other words, they are more than one player away from being serious contenders. So it makes little sense why they decided to go halfway in at the deadline, acquiring a rental bat with high risk at the cost of a first round prospect, but without supplementing their pitching staff with serious talent. Either be realistic with deGrom’s health and punt on a season that requires him to be on the mound to be special — or make the necessary moves (massive investments in pitching) to truly give your team a chance to compete, even without him. The Mets did neither.
❸ Taijuan Walker finds his fastball
▪️ TOP FORM: One of the positives from the weekend was Taijuan Walker’s performance on Saturday. He took a no-hit bid through 6 and 2/3 before losing it to the newest Met Killer, Will Smith. It was Walker’s best outing since early in the season when he one-hit the Cardinals over seven innings, and a sign of life from a pitcher many assume has hit a wall, extending past 100 innings in a season for the first time since 2017.
▪️ RISING ACTION: It’s hard to say how much fatigue has led to Walker’s struggles since the All-Star break. While his velocity has been fairly consistent, there are other signs pointing to wear and tear: his mechanics have been inconsistent and his command has been spotty. Both were clearly improved on Saturday, but so was something else: the rise on his fastball. Since the crackdown on sticky stuff, Walker has added 2-3 inches of drop on his four-seamer, and consequently, it has become a less effective pitch. But against the Dodgers, he had his best rising action since early June, which helped him use it as a put-away pitch that he could offset with a devastating split-change that looked the best it has all season.
❹ Carlos Carrasco keeps serving them up
▪️ LOST: As good as Walker was on Saturday, Carlos Carrasco was the opposite on Sunday. The veteran right-hander had a promising start in Miami but has otherwise struggled since trying to return from a hamstring injury that kept him out most of the season. He is another pitcher who seems to be impacted by the lack of sticky stuff, with his fastball down close to 300 RPMs of spin since last season. But against the Dodgers, it wasn’t just his fastball failing him, it was the one pitch he has had some success with this year, his slider. Justin Turner put one of his sliders over the left field fence (because of course he did).
▪️ LONG BALL: Two years ago, Carrasco struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark, resulting in a 5.29 ERA for Cleveland. He regained his form during a shortened 2020 campaign, but has found it impossible to keep the ball from flying out of the yard this year. The Mets are going to need to decide if they rushed him back too soon, if a mechanical fix will solve things, or if they are better served using one of the starters they acquired from the… oh wait, we are back to the point that they decided to put their pennant odds in the shaky hands of a beat-up rotation.
🔗 Mets running out of season as clock ticks on injured players, by Dave Lennon, Newsday: “Aside from Lindor, who apparently may look to skip a rehab assignment in order to expedite his return, who can the Mets truly count on for this final playoff push? They’ve been holding their breath on deGrom since the All-Star break, and based on his spotty health for most of ’21, it’s difficult to envision him coming back at anywhere near his dominant self -- if at all.”
🔗 Are those Mets capable of climbing back up the NL East standings? by John Harper, SNY: “In truth, the better question to ask is probably this: what evidence has this team offered to make you think it is capable of putting together a significant winning streak before it’s too late?”
🔗 What are the long-term ramifications of the Mets’ season-long struggles on offense? by Tim Britton, The Athletic ($), “That’s going to be the question facing Mets brass this winter. At the start of the season, New York’s offense appeared as if it would be one of the sport’s best on paper, building off what had been a breakthrough 2020 for several of its core pieces. Instead, almost every one of those pieces has performed worse this season than last, in a way that will force the Mets to recalibrate their expectations moving forward and maybe rethink the offensive mix for 2022 and beyond.”
🔗 Mets catchers add more than their hitting stats show, by Greg Joyce, NY Post: “As Smith provided the difference in two extra-inning games entering Sunday’s series finale at Citi Field, James McCann and Tomas Nido had combined to go 1-for-9 with five strikeouts while coming up empty in big spots. It continued a rough stretch with both catchers in slumps during a season in which the Mets have gotten a .607 OPS from that position, good for 24th in the league coming into Sunday.”
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I will add: Dom Smith has been a disaster this year and -- oddly -- the fans don't seem to have noticed. For 2021, he can't field, run, hit for average or power. A huge fizzle. And he's the guy who stayed healthy! Figures.
>> Without a healthy deGrom, the Mets are, at best, a de facto, NL-East playoff team with long odds to beat the Milwaukee Brewers. In other words, they are more than one player away from being serious contenders. So it makes little sense why they decided to go halfway in at the deadline, acquiring a rental bat with high risk at the cost of a first round prospect, but without supplementing their pitching staff with serious talent. Either be realistic with deGrom’s health and punt on a season that requires him to be on the mound to be special — or make the necessary moves (massive investments in pitching) to truly give your team a chance to compete, even without him. The Mets did neither. <<
I did not like the Baez trade. However, I believe the Mets were in a delicate situation -- 1st place, Cohen's first year. My take is that they did not go "all in" because they had a fairly accurate take on the team (and, as I speculated earlier, an accurate take on Jake's health regardless of the pre-trade posturing). They didn't trade away Mauricio, Alvarez, Ginn. At the same time, I don't think the organization was in a position to do nothing just in terms of the fan base. So we made the one bad (misguided) trade for Baez, losing Crowe-Armstrong. Wish we didn't do that, but I understand that "doing nothing" was not really an option.