Decisions Made Hard
Mets must trim roster to 26 by Monday
Good Morning,
The Mets return to action tonight against the Phillies at Citi Field. Philadelphia comes to town riding a four-game winning streak to get back to .500 after a 6–10 start.
☀️ The weather is supposed to be beautiful, the Mets have Tylor Megill, Taijuan Walker and Max Scherzer lined up to pitch, so it should be a fun weekend in Queens.
Today, I will discuss the Mets’ looming roster decision, why so many Mets are getting beaned and catch you up on the latest news.
The Mets have a roster decision to make by Monday. Teams have been allowed to carry an expanded 28-man active roster through the month of April to help them ease into the regular season following the lockout-shortened spring training. Rosters will return to the regular 26-man size, as of Monday.
That means two players from the current roster will either be sent to the minors or designated for assignment. The Mets reportedly plan on meeting today to discuss their options.
“I’m going to sit with our baseball operations group and coaching staff and walk through what the options are and listen to people provide opinions and insight on how they view it,” general manager Billy Eppler told the NY Post by phone this week. “I will get a feel for how they view the roster taking shape. Ultimately, I will sit with Buck [Showalter] and try to figure out what the best course of action is.”
In reality, this shouldn’t be a very hard decision. But baseball tends to get more complicated than it needs to be. Let’s discuss what the front office might be thinking.
🔹 DECISION FRAMEWORK
Before breaking down the specific players, it’s important to lay out a framework for making this decision. While sometimes it’s as simple as cutting ties with the player who sucks the most, there are other factors the front office must weigh.
◾️ MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS
A key consideration in sending a player down to the minors is whether they have any minor league options remaining. A player “with options” gives the Mets exactly that, options. They can send him to the minors without needing to place him on waivers. Otherwise, a player must be designated for assignment and pass through outright waivers before they can accept an assignment in the minors.
◾️ UNIQUE SKILLSET
Obviously, you want to keep the players who give you the best chance to win. But since we are focused on the bottom of the roster, the guys who are good enough to be the 27th and 28th players on a major-league club, but maybe not the 25th or 26th, we need to consider the specific skillset they provide, and how that skillset fits with the rest of the roster.
For pitchers, that means being left-handed versus right-handed, or offering versatility in the type of situations they can pitch. For hitters, that could mean positional versatility, pinch-hitting ability, speed, or defense, among other intangibles.
🔹 FROM 28 to 27
Ok, let’s start trimming down the roster.
The first cut is easy. While MLB recently came to an agreement with the player’s association to allow teams to carry a maximum of 14 pitchers (instead of the traditional 13), I don’t see the Mets taking advantage of that. They are better suited to carry a four-man bench than an extra arm in the bullpen.
If we remember our framework above, it’s easy to see why sending down Yoan López makes the most sense. There are only three relievers on the active roster with options remaining: Seth Lugo, Drew Smith, and López. However, the Mets will need to send López down to make room for Taijuan Walker coming off the IL.
That leaves Sean Reid-Foley as the best candidate to designate for assignment.
🔹 FROM 27 to 26
That brings us to the difficult decision: the Mets can only keep four of the five players listed below, so who misses the cut?
Robinson Canó (out of options)
Luis Guillorme (1 option)
Dominic Smith (2 options)
J.D. Davis (2 options)
Travis Jankowski (out of options)
Let’s discuss each option, beginning with the obvious choice.
🔻 ROBINSON CANÓ
If Robinson Canó wasn’t Robinson Canó, this would be an easy decision. The 39-year-old former All-Star looks completely lost at the plate. He is striking out in 22.5% of his plate appearances, while hitting a frail .184. His contact has been soft, averaging 5 MPH less than his 2020 season. There’s nothing to suggest he will return to productive form.
Meanwhile, he doesn’t offer the team any defense, speed or unique pinch-hitting abilities. His most redeeming quality is his veteran leadership, which still seems to garner respect despite his multiple PED suspensions.
If the Wilpons still owned the team, money would be the deciding factor. But Uncle Stevie is in charge now. As ridiculous as it sounds to get rid of a player that is owed more than $40 million over the next two seasons (including this one), at this point, it’s a sunk cost, one that Cohen can surely afford.
🔻 TRAVIS JANKOWSKI
A complete opposite story to Canó is Travis Jankowski. The Stony Brook product is hard not to like. He endeared himself to the coaching staff in spring training and continues to shine under the bright lights. He’s not going to slug, but he finds ways to get on base, with a .318 batting average and 12% walk rate. And he has the speed and baserunning skills to make his trips to first base worthwhile.
Since Jankowski is out of options and has five years of service time, removing him from the active roster would mean designating him for assignment, which would put the Mets at an extreme risk of losing him since he could easily get claimed or refuse assignment to the minors in hopes of signing somewhere else.
🔻 DOM SMITH / J.D. DAVIS
I am going to group these two players together because they are in somewhat similar situations. Both should have defined roles on this team. But both have struggled this season and have options remaining to make it easier for the team to trim down the roster without needing to release anyone else.
You could argue a trip to the minors might be a positive learning experience for either player. However, it could also badly backfire. After an offseason in which both players were heavily mentioned in trade rumors, sending them to the minors probably isn’t the best way to boost up their confidence and maintain their trade value throughout the league.
The Mets are still evaluating Davis’ left ankle, after he was hit by a pitch on Wednesday. It’s entirely possible he could require a stint on the IL, which would make this entire conversation moot until he returns.
🔻 LUIS GUILLORME
Which brings us to Luis Guillorme. A few days ago, I was fairly convinced he would be the bench player to lose a spot from the roster shrinking. The Mets might have been thinking the same thing, so gave him plenty of opportunities to prove himself in the lineup. He responded with three straight multi-hit games. He is 6-for-his-last-11 at the plate and has a .500 on-base percentage in his last seven games played.
That said, sometimes taking the path of least resistance makes the most sense. Guillorme has an option remaining, so he can be sent to the minors without cost. He also doesn’t have a clear role on a healthy roster. The Mets have plenty of left-handed bats, including at the position where Guillorme would play most, second base.
Some might worry losing Guillorme would mean the Mets would lack a shortstop if something were to happen to Lindor, but Eduardo Escobar is capable of sliding over in an emergency situation. If the Mets needed a longer-term solution, they could always call Guillorme back up and revisit this same decision.
Sending down Guillorme would also give the front office more time to evaluate Canó, Smith and Davis before they decide whether a drastic measure is required for any of them. It essentially kicks the can down the road in making a difficult roster decision at a relatively low cost to the team.
🔹 BOTTOM LINE
If the decision was mine, I would send Yoan López to the minors and part ways with Robinson Canó. But if I was betting on what the Mets will actually do, I would put my money on López and Guillorme finding time in Syracuse.
Major League Baseball executive VP of baseball operations Morgan Sword will be at Citi Field on Friday to meet with the Mets about the rampant increase in hit-by-pitches this season. If you haven’t seen the stat enough over the past few days, the Mets have been beaned 19 times through April, five more times than the next closest team.
Since it’s the topic of the month, let’s break it down a bit more.
⚾️ WHAT IS HAPPENING?
Why are the Mets getting plunked so often? It’s for a variety of reasons.
❶ THE PLAYERS: Yes, I will start by putting some blame on the Mets. I use the word “blame” loosely, obviously, but it’s important to consider that the Mets ranked near the top of the league in hit by pitches last season, they then added Mark Canha and Starling Marte, who rank second and fifth in HBPs over the past five years, respectively. With Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, the Mets have four of the 13 players who have been hit the most since 2018.
❷ THE BASEBALL: I linked to an article by Ken Rosenthal yesterday. With sticky substances being enforced out of the game, the league hasn’t responded with a solution for pitchers to gain a better grip to improve their command. Rosenthal discussed the possibility of the league using a pre-tacked baseball, similar to what is being used in Japan and Korea, but said “we’re not there yet.”
Of course, humidors have become a popular topic this year. The league installed 21 new machines so there is one in every ballpark (nine teams used one last season, including the Mets). But there’s no real evidence that the humidity of the baseball is causing the problem.
❸ A CHANGING GAME: I am going to group the remaining reasons into one category that I will call “a changing game.” As I have discussed with many of you in emails, Slack and in the comment section, the game we grew up loving looks very different than what we see each night on our TVs (and Apple TVs). It’s all about three outcomes: strikeout, walk, home run.
Because of that, teams are rewarding pitchers who throw high and fast, instead of hard and steady; as well as hitters who swing for the fences, and if they get hit a few extra times by standing over the plate to try to pull that outside fastball, so be it.
Brittany Ghiroli and Eno Sarris of The Athletic wrote an excellent piece yesterday outlining all of the reasons, besides the baseball, that command issues are trending upward. If you don’t have a subscription to The Athletic, you can listen to them discuss the piece on their recent podcast.
👨⚖️ CARDINALS DISCIPLINED
Nolan Arenado was suspended two games for overreacting to Yoan López’ high fastball on Wednesday … Ok, I’m having a little fun here. But it’s hard to call it something different when even MLB said his suspension was for “contributing to the incitement of the incident.”
Meanwhile, Cardinals’ first-base coach Stubby Clapp, who threw down Pete Alonso, escaped punishment. Although St. Louis reliever Genesis Cabrera received a one-game suspension for helping Clapp by horse-collaring Alonso. Right-hander Jack Flaherty was fined.
As for the Mets, besides the bumps and bruises they returned home with after being beaned six times in the series, two players were fined: Lopez for throwing high and inside, and Taijuan Walker for running onto the field while he was on the injured list. Some fans wanted to set up a fund to pay for Lopez’ and Walker’s fines. Walker responded by giving away tickets for Saturday’s game.
🗣 NOT BLUFFING: Despite his recent health issues, Jon Heyman says “some Mets insiders say they believe Jacob deGrom isn’t bluffing when he says he will opt out of his deal” and they believe that “no matter his health status.”
Curious phrasing from Mr. Heyman, considering he is an insider, himself. Does “some Mets insiders” mean he talked to Andy Martino and Joel Sherman and just noted what they said to him? Or perhaps he means “people inside the Mets’ organization?” I really don’t know.
🗓 UP NEXT: As mentioned earlier, the Mets send Tylor Megill (3–0, 2.35 ERA) to the mound tonight against Aaron Nola (1–2, 3.74). On Saturday, Taijuan Walker (0–0, 0.00) makes his first start since April 11. And Max Scherzer (3–0, 1.80 ERA) faces off against Zach Eflin (0–1, 3.45) on Sunday Night Baseball. Francisco Lindor will be miked up during the telecast. If you’re a glutton for punishment, you can watch the alternative Kay-Rod broadcast.
🔗 Why we’re about to find out much more about the Mets, by Joel Sherman, NY Post ($)
🔗 Mets players come together in wake of Nolan Arenado fight, by Andrew Tredinnick, NorthJersey.com: “One thing is clear about the Showalter-led Mets. They're disciplined, but they're also not going to back down when prompted.”
🔗 Mets Owner Also Enjoys Horse Racing Industry, by Joe D, MetsMerized Online: “The new Mets owner is deeply involved in horse racing for many years now. His involvement with the sport comes through a friendship and a working relationship with Sol Kumin.”
And we leave you with birthday wishes for Gary Cohen…
Thanks for reading! Follow us on Twitter for regular updates until our next newsletter.
And please check out our newsletters about the Knicks and Isles, too.
Nice article. Hate to old man-groan, but Saturday and Sunday might be nice during the day, but they are both night games. Saturday and Sunday night games in the same series in April in NY is criminal.
Lopez would be sent down to the minors when Walker is activated on Saturday, so they would still need to cut an additional pitcher such as Sean Reid-Foley to get down to the 26-man limit correct?