Alon-So long?
Morning Dose: Friday, January 17
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It was a busy day in Mets Land. We broke it down in real time on the Mets Fix Podcast. There’s still plenty to discuss this morning.
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🍎 Is this really the end for Pete Alonso?
Probably?
We at least know the Mets very much want everyone to believe they are pivoting away from their franchise star.
This could be one final negotiation tactic, a strong-arm move to pressure Alonso into accepting a team-friendly offer. Or it could be what was always a probable case: that is, David Stearns refusing to pay a premium for an aging first baseman who already ranks lower than you would like among counterparts at his position.
If we look at Alonso’s top 10 hitting comps at age 29 from Baseball Reference, and we compare their annual WAR values relative to age, we find an uninspiring story outside of Mark McGwire (follow the black line).
Six first baseman have slugged better than Alonso over the past two years, and 10 (!) produced more WAR last season. His best years are most likely behind him.
Unless Steve Cohen is intent on funding a charity in tax payments to Major League Baseball for the foreseeable future, it’s nearly impossible to look at the long-term payroll outlook and believe adding Alonso for $30 million annually is a good idea.
Not with players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker set to become free agents next offseason. Not with the current CBA set to expire in 2026 and a lingering uncertainty about how that will impact payroll going forward. Not when there is plenty of other work to do for this year’s team, along with next year’s, and the year after that.
So with spring training one month away, the Mets appear ready to move on to other business, starting on Thursday when they brought back Jessie Winker on a one-year, $7.5 million deal that has the potential to pay him $9 million with incentives.
🍎 Why can’t the two sides just agree to a deal?
Stearns proved he can spend Steve Cohen’s money in signing Juan Soto to a record-shattering deal. He is also proving he knows how to be prudent with how he spends it on other players.
Alonso hired Scott Boras with hopes of resetting the first base market. It wasn’t Bob Nightengale who revealed this fact; it was Boras, himself, who told us this last November:
“I got Mark Teixeira a contract… for $180 million in 2007 (and) I got Prince Fielder a contract at $214 million in 2011,’’ Boras said on The Show podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman last November. “There are different dynamics you look at.
“The revenue system of the game has dramatically changed over the last few years,’’ Boras continued. “I don’t think the (Freeman and Goldschmidt) contracts are really relevant to anything that has to do with what’s going to happen in the future, particularly with Pete Alonso.”
Wishful thinking, even a year ago.
THE MARKET for 30-year-old first basemen is about as stable as the bond market these days. Alonso was never going to break the bank this winter, but as more potential landing spots came off the board over the past two months, it became clear the Mets had all of the leverage in these negotiations.
As I wrote yesterday:
If the Amazins are committed to getting a deal done, the most recent comparable would be Christian Walker, who signed a three-year, $60 million deal at the age of 33. Alonso obviously wants more than that. He is younger, more marketable and a homegrown star.
If we’re talking three years, the annual price becomes a bigger sticking point. Alonso might be worth more than Walker, but how much more? A three-year, $82 million deal would put his AAV on par with Freddie Freeman and would be $6 million more than Matt Olson. Is that the ceiling for the Mets?
That would suggest three years and $75 million is the sweet spot.
It turns out Stearns was thinking the same thing.
A FINAL OFFER: The Mets reportedly made a “last-ditch effort” to keep the 2x Home Run Derby champ in Queens by offering him a three-year deal in the $68-70 million range, with opt outs.
Fans who were getting comfortable to the idea of bringing back Alonso for three-years at $90 million are probably feeling disappointed this morning.
No matter where you stand on Alonso, it is jarring to consider a Cohen-run team is willing to let one of the greatest home run hitters in the history of the franchise walk away over money.
But Stearns operates on principle. He used the same formula we have been using over the past two years in talking about Alonso’s next contract, comparing his AAV to the rest of the league, and drawing a line somewhere between Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman.
🍎 Why pivot now?
I can understand if the Mets never wanted to bring Alonso back. They probably even secretly hoped another team stepped to the plate with a big-time offer to make the divorce easier for fans to swallow.
What I don’t understand is why they seemingly used the signing of Winker as a first step in “pivoting” away from the Polar Bear. At least, that’s how it is being reported.
Paying Winker $7.5 million to fill an obvious role as either a full-time DH, if the Mets can somehow find a trade partner for Starling Marte, or a perfect platoon complement to Marte from the left side of the plate, is something a competitive team should do whether Alonso returns or not.
If they want to add an expensive reliever, like Tanner Scott, they can do that too.
THE ONLY REASON why those moves would represent a pivot away from Alonso is if the team is operating under a budget, on principle, or if they believe Alonso, himself, has decided not to return.
Because until the Mets add another first baseman (perhaps asking Anthony Santander to try on a rarely-used glove) or third baseman (such as Nolan Arenado or Alex Bregman), the door does not need to slam shut on Alonso until he signs somewhere else.
As negotiations go, what one side refuses to accept today might suddenly become more attractive later.
Of course, the Mets could move Mark Vientos to first and give Brett Baty another chance at third. That has always been a realistic possibility. It’s just one they don’t have to decide on today, or tomorrow, or any day until closer to when spring games begin and they start giving more reps to Vientos at first.
A “pivot” to signing players at other positions is only a pivot if those signings are an opportunity cost to what they can pay Alonso.
🍎 How does the payroll factor into this?
As the roster stands today, I project the Mets’ current luxury-tax payroll to be around $280 million, or right at the threshold where each additional dollar will be taxed at 95%.
If Scott costs another $15 million, the payroll would be pushing towards $300 million. And this doesn’t account for inevitable injuries and in-season acquisitions that could bloat the accounting books even more. Essentially, by adding two more free agents, the cost of adding Alonso on top of those two players is double the cost because of the tax implications.
It’s understandable why the money starts to become a factor.
THE PROBLEM is none of this information is new. Did the front office expect a player who turned down a $158 million contract extension and hired Scott Boras as his agent and rightfully sees himself as the face of the franchise to happily sign a new contract far below his asking price?
In other words, why couldn’t the front office come to this conclusion earlier in the offseason, realizing Alonso was highly unlikely to sign at their preferred price, allowing them to be more aggressive when several cost-effective first basemen, such as Carlos Santana and Paul Goldschmidt, came off the board?
Finding bargain deals doesn’t always happen when the lights are off and the store is about to close. Sometimes the early shoppers get the best price. The Mets might have missed that window in hopes they could bridge an impossible gap with Alonso.
🍎 Can we just admit this sucks?
I can post chart after chart after chart to show why signing Alonso is a difficult commitment for this front office to make. Better yet, I can remind everyone how Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to be a free agent next winter and the Mets can bring him to Queens for the relative-to-Soto discount price of $450 million!
None of that matters for fans who want to root for something that feels like the New York Mets.
Isn’t it more fun to pull a Mets cap over your head and cheer for a homegrown star than a team full of the most expensive free agents?
Fans have every right to be upset about reaching the point where AAV and WAR decide which human beings represent their baseball team. This is life in 2025.
🍎 What does the Winker signing mean beyond Alonso?
As I alluded to above, the Mets needed another bat, whether they find common ground with Alonso or not. Winker hit 13 of his 14 home runs against right-handed pitchers, while Marte batted 60 points higher against lefties than he did righties last year. In many ways, they are the perfect platoon duo.
That said, the front office appears motivated to find a trade partner for Marte, both to give him a better situation than the short side of a platoon and to perhaps save them a few million bucks in payroll (they would likely have to eat the majority, if not all, of Marte’s contract in any trade).
Without Alonso, there’s an obvious need for another infielder, whether that turns into a big-ticket item at one of the corner positions, or a versatile type like Jose Iglesias.
Still, it seems like another shoe is going to drop. I would caution people from reading too much into the roster until we see the full picture.
🍎 How good is this 2025 Mets team?
The early projections already expect the Mets to win 87-91 games. FanGraphs slots the Mets seventh and 12th, respectively, in projected WAR at first base and third base with Vientos and Baty at each of the corners.
There is still chance to improve on that with some of the moves we have noted above and will discuss next.
There is also a lot of risk with the current roster.
Baty might finally prove he is ready to be a major-league contributor, rewarding Stearns for his patience and willingness to give him another full-time opportunity. Or he might be a classic AAAA player.
Michael Baumann at FanGraphs sums it up in a recent piece on the young third baseman:
“Absent some hitherto unforeseen panacea, we’re left with a player who doesn’t play a premium position and hits for neither average nor power. Out of those 455 players with 100 or more plate appearances last season, Baty is one of just 11 who fits the following three criteria: a higher-than-average strikeout rate, an ISO under .100, and little or no reasonable expectation of playing an up-the-middle defensive position regularly.”
It’s important for Stearns to give his young players runway, including Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña, but it’s hard to say either player is ready for primetime. Mauricio is still in the throes of his rehab program.
There’s also something to say about asking your budding star, Vientos, to adjust to a new position right before the season begins. First base is the easiest spot to do that, and Alonso was far from a gold glover, but he still had an uncanny ability for scooping bad throws and making the occasional diving play. One would hope a new defensive assignment wouldn’t distract Vientos from the very important task of providing protection to Soto, which could be needed now more than ever.
Take a wide-variance lineup and combine it with an even wider-variance pitching staff, and yes, you get a wide-variance baseball team that could push for a playoff spot like last year, or end up somewhere around .500.
In Stearns, Mets fans trust.
🍎 Could the Mets still make a splashy move?
There is thought the Mets could still add a player like Anthony Santander, assuming his market comes down to a reasonable price. He has mostly played in the outfield throughout his career, trying out first base only 13 times.
My guess is the Mets would prefer to improve on defense if they are going to add another piece to play third and ask Vientos to move across the diamond.
Is Alex Bregman still a possibility at the right price?
What about a trade for Nolan Arenado?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lingers as a possibility if Toronto reaches a point before spring training (when Guerrero says he will shutdown negotiations) that they rather move him for a lucrative return than risk losing him the following winter.
The Athletic reports any attempt of prying Guerrero away from the north would require a package that would have to “include major leaguers and top prospects and exceed the value the San Diego Padres received from the New York Yankees for Soto.”
Of course, there are always trades that aren’t reported to the public that could manifest.
🍎 Is it really, really over?
Pete Alonso might still end up a Met, and I don’t mean as a 38-year-old coming back on a one-year deal to try to reach 500 home runs in his original uniform.
As long as Steve Cohen owns the team, the wild card always exists that he could push for a deal, similar to the way he did for Carlos Correa before those negotiations fell apart.
Cohen aside, whatever alternative plans Stearns might have in place, it’s possible they don’t materialize and Alonso’s market continues to decline, and the two finally meet at the end of this road.
THE BLUE JAYS are one of three teams reportedly engaged in discussions with Alonso. And they appear willing to sign him even if that means moving Guerrero to third. For Vlad Jr., a move to the hot corner would only boost his value on the free agent market, perhaps learning from Alonso about the limitations of free agency as a first baseman.
Time will tell. We still have one month until spring training.
But Thursday, January 16 could mark an important day in Mets history.
🎧 Mets Fix Podcast
Make sure you’re subscribed to the Mets Fix Podcast on your favorite platform (Apple, Spotify, Overcast, or RSS Feed).
◾️ Former Mets DJ Stewart and Tomás Nido have found new homes, with Stewart signing a minor-league deal in Pittsburgh and Nido a minor-league contract with Detroit.
◾️ Beloved baseball broadcaster Bob Uecker passed away at the age of 90.
◾️ The Cubs avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a $16.5 million contract with recently-acquired outfielder Kyle Tucker.
🔗 Pete Alonso is ‘one more thing’ Steve Cohen can live without now, by Joel Sherman, NY Post ($): “Cohen has learned on the job. Those Mets were actually not one more thing from Nirvana. The 2023 Mets ended up among the most over-hyped, overpaid overdogs in history, educating the owner that star chasing at any price is not the answer to every baseball question.”
🔗 Soto has sights set on Cooperstown -- and the numbers say he'll get there, by Sarah Langs, MLB: “Consider this: Soto has a 160 career OPS+. The only players with higher marks through their age-25 seasons, minimum 3,000 plate appearances, are Ty Cobb (180), Mickey Mantle (174), Mike Trout (172), Jimmie Foxx (171), Albert Pujols (167), Tris Speaker (166) and Rogers Hornsby (165). All seven are either already in the Hall of Fame or will be once they are eligible, which means Soto is on the right track.”
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I think we can take Stearns literally when he said he wanted Pete to test his market and come back to them. Has Boras/Pete found an offer higher than 3/68? I highly doubt it. Sammon's updated reporting saying that this offer included opt-outs make sense, AND saying they are willing to go slightly above that offer. That tells me they're willing to probably get to the expected 3/75.
But if Pete/Boras can't tell you with a straight face that they have another offer on the table, why would we offer that?
I think Boras royally screwed this up.