Oh Canada

Morning Dose: Thursday, January 16

☀️ Good Morning:

As Canada readies itself for a changing political landscape, both domestically and abroad, a trade war on the baseball front is starting to materialize.

While the Blue Jays are one of three teams hoping to import phenom Roki Sasaki from Japan, they are receiving calls about the status of their star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is set to become a free agent next winter at the age of 26.

The fact the Mets have “checked in” on Guerrero should come as no surprise.

Every team should be checking in on Guerrero. It’s a GM’s job to monitor the market for available talent, whether they intend on trying to acquire that talent or not. At the very least, Guerrero’s status is impactful on the broader labor market — does Pete Alonso suddenly become a viable option in Toronto?

After Guerrero recently rejected an extension offer worth around $340 million, saying it “is not even close to what we are looking for,” and indicated he has no plans to negotiate after the first full day of spring training, we are clearly headed down a path where Toronto will soon have to decide if they are willing to risk losing their star first baseman for the qualifying offer compensation next winter, or if the timing is right to maximize his value in trade.

It’s under this context we must consider Wednesday’s report from Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman on Alonso:

“While the sides are said to be making progress on at least the structure of a proposed deal that’s expected to be for three years and include at least one opt out, there was no word by Wednesday that the sides have closed the substantial financial hurdle that’s hung over these high-profile talks regarding the star free-agent first baseman.

And the Mets have let Alonso’s camp know they need a decision — and soon — on whether the two sides can do a deal as they want to make sure to leave themselves enough time and options to pivot elsewhere prior to spring training, The Post has learned.”

There are plenty of free agent options still available for the Mets to pivot away from Alonso, including third baseman Alex Bregman and outfielder Anthony Santander, along with top-end relievers, such as Tanner Scott.

But is that really the play here? Putting Scott aside, does it make sense to forgo a three-year deal with Alonso to sign a potentially longer deal with a similarly aged Bregman? Or even on a similarly structured deal for Santander?

Negotiations need deadlines and consequences, such as telling Alonso they will move on to other options if he doesn’t agree to a deal soon. But if the Mets want to dream about acquiring Guerrero in a similar manner as they did with Francisco Lindor (later agreeing on an extension), and if they believe they can move Mark Vientos to first base and find value in keeping a position open for the likes of Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña, there’s really no rush to resolve things with Alonso.

We are still one month away from the team’s first workout in spring training. Unless the finances for Alonso will strongly dictate the team’s ability to bolster their bullpen, or add another bat behind Starling Marte, patience could be a virtue.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!