Another factor to consider is the compensation cost of signing free agents. I believe that signing a free agent with a Qualifying Offer causes forfeit of second and fifth draft picks, plus some International money. So if they trade a Scherzer, they might gain some prospect capital but give it back away by signing a free agent to replace him. Worth it for Ohtani, maybe not for some of the others.
OTOH, relief pitchers don’t usually get a QO because a $20 million or so offer is too much. So in the offseason it costs only money, not prospect capital, to build a pen. Money we have. So I’d trade Robertson and Raley and anyone else.
And...the added benefit of moving Vogelbach and the outfielders is that that will open up playing time for Vientos and Mauricio. Do it!
JB, I know this write up definitely took a lot of thought and time on your part. Appreciate the work. The newsletter was fascinating to say the least.
I understand the Mets chips may not hold as much value as we hope, but there’s really where Eppler and his staff have to shine. You have to be able to find that 35 grade pitcher and turn him into a 50 grade. Ben Brown is an example of that.
We all know the names likely to go, but let’s get a little crazy. I would strongly look into trading McNeil. Yes, he’s having a down year so his value may be down (not according to your analysis!) bit Mcneil has been a player who has constantly outperformed his underlined numbers. Now we are seeing a regression to the mean. This is 2 out of 3 years where he’s been straight awful. I would put him on the block and see what’s available.
Thanks for the kind words. You are spot on with your added commentary and I point to highlight later in the newsletter. We get it: the Mets aren't going to be able to trade for a top-flight prospect. But they have to be able to identify the prospects who are undervalued and have faith in their development system to turn them into future players.
Not much to add to the excellent report and thoughtful comments thus far which, following the articles in The Athletic and NY Post cited, I'm now a bit "glazed" but accepting that this trade deadline may not be much of a panacea. Who new? If nothing else, it pisses me off even more how badly we wasted a wonderful season last year with horrible decisions made at the deadline by not reinforcing our relief corps and/or solidifying our DH position. Those were easy and relatively inexpensive fixes.
Off topic... it was good to see you on the SNY spot yesterday though I found that the time would have been better spent in a frank discussion between you and Ryan -- your hostess questions seemed a bit lame and superfluous -- not your fault.
Thanks for reading and watching the SNY appearance. Agreed, it’s a little tough with a host throwing out questions like that. Maybe I will talk to Ryan about making a podcast appearance.
Real good analysis and thoughts. Seeing this laid out the way it is in the chart - i would trade the top 3 in a heartbeat (Alonso, McNeil and Cahna). While all 3 are great guys and we love them as Mets fans, as pointed out The Mets get the most value in trades - hopefully.
Hi Matthew - At my age (and i am old) not really - as i would like to see them win a Championship before I'm on the wrong side of the infeild grass. However, i think this is anywhere from 2-3-4 years to get it right. During that time we may get to root for some exciting young players - which would be fun.
Where I think Cohen made a mistake was trying to win immediately when the infrastructure wasn’t there to support it. He might have been better off coming in and tearing everything down for a quick rebuild. Now, he’s locked into a lot of money with older players. I’m not sure they can rebuild right now if they even wanted to
Yes and no. They won 101 games last season. It was kind of fun, as I recall.
Signing McNeil looks like a mistake, but I still see him as an expensive but valuable super-utility guy who can backup all over the field and get 450 ABs or more. Maybe we don't view him as having a starting position.
I know you are right - its like being "trapped" The minor league system is not good. In all honesty i just dont know what to do here. The more he spends the more he is taxed and the draft pick postions get worse. Can buy prospects. Patching this would be the way to go but that rarley works.
I deeply appreciate the deep dive into WAR as I really didn’t know what it was. My eyes began to glaze over the graphs but I was fully with you when we got to the fun part. Deep Senga bow to you. Deep Senga bow to Billy Eppler, too. He’s finally doing something useful: scouting Japanese players.
Looking forward to seeing Lucas Giolito tonight as he auditions for a contract next season.
Given the information you just provided us I can't see where it would make any sense to trade either Scherzer or Verlander. This brought up a question in my mind though. Whom on the Mets would you consider to be "untouchable" at this trading deadline? For me it would be Nimmo, McNeil and Alonso. Anyone else, as long as the Mets can get some good value back in return, I'm in favor of it. While most of this lineup has not performed up to the expectations I believe the problem is not so much with the players as with the managing and coaching plus the obvious failures of the front office in what hasn't and has been done between end of season last year up to now. This is where the Mets should be focusing all their attention between now and next season!
Agreed. There is a lot of variability in performance that occurs for reasons outside of what you can see in the data. Jeff McNeil can win a batting title, and then something we don’t see physically gets into his head and he becomes 2023 Jeff McNeil. Coaches are supposed to be the outside voices players have to get them right as long as they are not injured. 2023 has been an abysmal failure of the Mets coaches. Starting with Buck.
Context is crucial in economic analysis like this. Supply and demand, and what a particular team needs. A team with a strong 1B and DH tandem, such as the Dodgers, would not trade as much for Pete Alonso as would a team who does not have a better alternative. There needs to be a buyer.
The key to maximizing any sale is to find the right buyer. If the buyer values what you have to sell, you get top dollar for it. If a team needs a closer for a once in a generation run at the World Series, and you have the closer to sell them, then you get that top prospect. Unless they’re GM doesn’t recognize the uniqueness of their situation and believes that the vigorous relief market will present itself in time.
Getting bogged down in the numbers does make us lose sight of context. Last year we had a special season and needed to overspend at the deadline, because special seasons are rare. Too many variables have to come together for a team to win. WAR is a rough estimate. But it doesn’t take psychological factors into account. How a team comes together at the right time and place
I’ll never forgive Eppler for failing so arrogantly last summer. How he is still in charge is astounding.
This was NERDY AS HELL. And I'm absolutely here for it. Sounds like best approach may be to trade as many of those guys in the middle of your chart there to get as may lottery ticket 35/40/45(maybe) value prospects as we can and hope at least one hits.
So, if I’m reading this correctly, Pham, Vogelbach, Canha, Carrasco and Narvaez add up to about $19M. So if Cohen adds another $81M in cash, they can be traded for a 70 level prospect? Cool. What’s the holdup?
Another factor to consider is the compensation cost of signing free agents. I believe that signing a free agent with a Qualifying Offer causes forfeit of second and fifth draft picks, plus some International money. So if they trade a Scherzer, they might gain some prospect capital but give it back away by signing a free agent to replace him. Worth it for Ohtani, maybe not for some of the others.
OTOH, relief pitchers don’t usually get a QO because a $20 million or so offer is too much. So in the offseason it costs only money, not prospect capital, to build a pen. Money we have. So I’d trade Robertson and Raley and anyone else.
And...the added benefit of moving Vogelbach and the outfielders is that that will open up playing time for Vientos and Mauricio. Do it!
They need to move away from Vogelbach and the platoon approach to DH asap.
Buck's platoon mentality -- first figured out by Casey Stengal! -- needs to go.
Agreed. Best part of moving guys is we can get Mauricio and Vientos into the lineup.
JB, I know this write up definitely took a lot of thought and time on your part. Appreciate the work. The newsletter was fascinating to say the least.
I understand the Mets chips may not hold as much value as we hope, but there’s really where Eppler and his staff have to shine. You have to be able to find that 35 grade pitcher and turn him into a 50 grade. Ben Brown is an example of that.
We all know the names likely to go, but let’s get a little crazy. I would strongly look into trading McNeil. Yes, he’s having a down year so his value may be down (not according to your analysis!) bit Mcneil has been a player who has constantly outperformed his underlined numbers. Now we are seeing a regression to the mean. This is 2 out of 3 years where he’s been straight awful. I would put him on the block and see what’s available.
Thanks for the kind words. You are spot on with your added commentary and I point to highlight later in the newsletter. We get it: the Mets aren't going to be able to trade for a top-flight prospect. But they have to be able to identify the prospects who are undervalued and have faith in their development system to turn them into future players.
Not much to add to the excellent report and thoughtful comments thus far which, following the articles in The Athletic and NY Post cited, I'm now a bit "glazed" but accepting that this trade deadline may not be much of a panacea. Who new? If nothing else, it pisses me off even more how badly we wasted a wonderful season last year with horrible decisions made at the deadline by not reinforcing our relief corps and/or solidifying our DH position. Those were easy and relatively inexpensive fixes.
Off topic... it was good to see you on the SNY spot yesterday though I found that the time would have been better spent in a frank discussion between you and Ryan -- your hostess questions seemed a bit lame and superfluous -- not your fault.
Thanks for reading and watching the SNY appearance. Agreed, it’s a little tough with a host throwing out questions like that. Maybe I will talk to Ryan about making a podcast appearance.
This was really complex economic analysis, JB. Almost as if you do this sort of thing for a living 😂
Ha! You think?!
Real good analysis and thoughts. Seeing this laid out the way it is in the chart - i would trade the top 3 in a heartbeat (Alonso, McNeil and Cahna). While all 3 are great guys and we love them as Mets fans, as pointed out The Mets get the most value in trades - hopefully.
Steve, are you ok with a slow rebuild?
Hi Matthew - At my age (and i am old) not really - as i would like to see them win a Championship before I'm on the wrong side of the infeild grass. However, i think this is anywhere from 2-3-4 years to get it right. During that time we may get to root for some exciting young players - which would be fun.
Where I think Cohen made a mistake was trying to win immediately when the infrastructure wasn’t there to support it. He might have been better off coming in and tearing everything down for a quick rebuild. Now, he’s locked into a lot of money with older players. I’m not sure they can rebuild right now if they even wanted to
Yes and no. They won 101 games last season. It was kind of fun, as I recall.
Signing McNeil looks like a mistake, but I still see him as an expensive but valuable super-utility guy who can backup all over the field and get 450 ABs or more. Maybe we don't view him as having a starting position.
You know whats more fun? Sustainable winning.
I know you are right - its like being "trapped" The minor league system is not good. In all honesty i just dont know what to do here. The more he spends the more he is taxed and the draft pick postions get worse. Can buy prospects. Patching this would be the way to go but that rarley works.
I deeply appreciate the deep dive into WAR as I really didn’t know what it was. My eyes began to glaze over the graphs but I was fully with you when we got to the fun part. Deep Senga bow to you. Deep Senga bow to Billy Eppler, too. He’s finally doing something useful: scouting Japanese players.
Looking forward to seeing Lucas Giolito tonight as he auditions for a contract next season.
Maybe the Mets can hurt his trade value lol
If only!
Given the information you just provided us I can't see where it would make any sense to trade either Scherzer or Verlander. This brought up a question in my mind though. Whom on the Mets would you consider to be "untouchable" at this trading deadline? For me it would be Nimmo, McNeil and Alonso. Anyone else, as long as the Mets can get some good value back in return, I'm in favor of it. While most of this lineup has not performed up to the expectations I believe the problem is not so much with the players as with the managing and coaching plus the obvious failures of the front office in what hasn't and has been done between end of season last year up to now. This is where the Mets should be focusing all their attention between now and next season!
Agreed. There is a lot of variability in performance that occurs for reasons outside of what you can see in the data. Jeff McNeil can win a batting title, and then something we don’t see physically gets into his head and he becomes 2023 Jeff McNeil. Coaches are supposed to be the outside voices players have to get them right as long as they are not injured. 2023 has been an abysmal failure of the Mets coaches. Starting with Buck.
Context is crucial in economic analysis like this. Supply and demand, and what a particular team needs. A team with a strong 1B and DH tandem, such as the Dodgers, would not trade as much for Pete Alonso as would a team who does not have a better alternative. There needs to be a buyer.
The key to maximizing any sale is to find the right buyer. If the buyer values what you have to sell, you get top dollar for it. If a team needs a closer for a once in a generation run at the World Series, and you have the closer to sell them, then you get that top prospect. Unless they’re GM doesn’t recognize the uniqueness of their situation and believes that the vigorous relief market will present itself in time.
Getting bogged down in the numbers does make us lose sight of context. Last year we had a special season and needed to overspend at the deadline, because special seasons are rare. Too many variables have to come together for a team to win. WAR is a rough estimate. But it doesn’t take psychological factors into account. How a team comes together at the right time and place
I’ll never forgive Eppler for failing so arrogantly last summer. How he is still in charge is astounding.
This was NERDY AS HELL. And I'm absolutely here for it. Sounds like best approach may be to trade as many of those guys in the middle of your chart there to get as may lottery ticket 35/40/45(maybe) value prospects as we can and hope at least one hits.
As many*
So, if I’m reading this correctly, Pham, Vogelbach, Canha, Carrasco and Narvaez add up to about $19M. So if Cohen adds another $81M in cash, they can be traded for a 70 level prospect? Cool. What’s the holdup?