Zero to One

Morning Dose: Friday, March 21

☀️ Good Morning:

“Doing what we already know how to do takes the world from 1 to n, adding more of something familiar. But every time we create something new, we go from 0 to 1.”

Entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and business bros know where that quote comes from. I can promise you Steve Cohen does as well.

Peter Thiel wrote those words in his foundational book Zero to One: Notes on startups, or how to build the future.

The idea is simple: create something new. That’s where true value is found, where progress is made.

It’s an interesting concept to consider in the context of baseball. We have reached the point where measuring value relative to replacement level (WAR) has become the dominant strategy.

When a front office decides whether to sign one player versus another, they can use a variety of metrics to project which one will add more value to their roster compared to the alternative. Decision-makers in baseball have gotten really good at measuring the “n” in 1+ n.

So how do you go from 0 to 1 in baseball?

The Dodgers provide the best example. By investing heavily in Japan, they have created a near monopoly on its best talent. As Thiel writes in his book, “if you can’t monopolize a unique solution for a small market, you’ll be stuck with vicious competition.”

The benefits extend well beyond the diamond. The revenue growth is off the charts.

Of course, this is all possible when you have Shohei Ohtani. Signing a generational talent is another way to go from zero to one. Ohtani is worth far more than the 9 or 10 wins above replacement level on his FanGraphs page. He completely redefines the brand of the franchise.

Which brings us to the Mets. They enter the 2025 season after signing a generational talent to the richest contract in sports history. An investment like that needs to move the needle from zero to one.

But will it? A recent Sportico analysis on the highest-paid players in the sport highlights a stark truth.

• Juan Soto is the highest-paid player in 2025, with a salary that reaches over $120 million, including his signing bonus. He earns an extra $7 million in endorsements.

That sounds like a lot, until you look at the second highest-paid player, Mr. Ohtani.

• The Dodgers will pay Ohtani a modest $2 million salary in 2025. Yet, the two-way star will earn nearly as much as Soto in 2025, thanks to $100 million in endorsements.

Those endorsements don’t just help Ohtani, they sell the Dodgers brand. The Japanese megastar has become a zero-to-one investment for one of the sports’ most historic franchises.

Soto will help the Mets win baseball games. He most definitely moves the needle from 1 to n. Whether he helps the Mets create something new, perhaps a dynasty that allows them to eclipse the Yankees in market share, remains to be seen.

Something to think about on this Friday morning.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

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❌ FACTOR: If you told Mets fans Kodai Senga will win 18 games and be the anchor of the 2025 staff, they would believe you; and if you told Mets fans Kodai Senga would only make 10 starts and struggle through another injury-filled season, they would believe you.

He’s the biggest enigma on the roster, which makes him the biggest X-factor to the season.