Who's on third?
Should the Mets have more faith in J.D. Davis?
🧑🦱 by Blake Zeff
This off-season, one question was asked of Mets brass seemingly every day (and no, it didn’t have to do with their human resources practices):
How comfortable are you with J.D. Davis as the starting third baseman?
If you were hoping for a clear answer, you might need a UN translator to interpret the club’s responses. “If you’re talking about defensively,” Sandy Alderson said back in December, “our third base situation is probably a little up in the air.” Asked again in January, Sandy simply uttered, ”We still have a guy named [Luis] Guillorme.”
"We really like J.D. Davis. He's someone that can really hit and obviously we have him under control for a while. He's a very valuable player to our organization,” GM Zack Scott added recently, shedding about as much light as a dying iPhone. “We're gonna always look for ways to improve the team in any way we can. But we're fully comfortable going into the season with J.D. Davis playing an important role on our club."
Oh, okay.
Finally, it was manager Luis Rojas’s turn to play circumspect politician. “It’s really tough right now to commit to any role,” the skipper said this week.
Look, we know the team isn’t sold on Davis. In case the above comments didn’t make it obvious, he was also the only player the team decided to battle in arbitration, ultimately prevailing in its desire to pay him $2.1 million in 2021, versus the $2.475MM he sought.
We also know the scouting report on Davis: The guy can hit -- he was third on the team with an .895 OPS and 136 wRC+ in 2019, his only full season in the big leagues (before an uneven, short 2020) -- but his fielding does not rate well. He was worth -8 DRS in 34 games at 3B in 2020, and a similar -9 DRS there in 31 games the year before (note: he played more games in LF in 2019, where he also did not rate well). If you prefer the OAA (outs above average) statistic, he scored -3 at the hot corner in 2020 and +1 the year before.
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But here’s the thing: The Mets’ answer to the 3B question may be lacking, but the question itself is not quite right, either. It’s not merely about whether the club wantsDavis starting at 3B, like it’s a simple yes or no question, in a vacuum. From a practical standpoint, now that Scott has said he doesn’t anticipate any more major changes to the roster, it’s really about how Davis compares to the team’s other options at third, and whether he’s the best one.
Or put differently, who are the Mets best off with, in their starting lineup: J.D. Davis, Jonathan Villar or Luis Guillorme?
First things first: Despite the hype when he signed, Villar is not really a utility guy, nor a true third baseman. He’s played zero innings there since 2016, doesn’t rate well there, and is a much more experienced second baseman. So for him to be an option to supplant Davis in the lineup, you have to assume Jeff McNeil can play third.
But take a look at the numbers, and you see McNeil had the third most errors in the National League at third base last year (5), despite only playing the position for nine games. On the other hand, if you dig deeper, three of those errors were on throws (by contrast, he made just one throwing error in 103 games at 2B). And heading into 2020, McNeil presciently revealed that his biggest worry about manning the hot corner was adjusting to the longer throw from second base, where he felt more natural. “Definitely the throw, second base, you can kind of let your arm angle drop a little bit,” he said. “At third, you have to get on top a little more, trying to get that backspin.”
But if you believe that an athlete as talented as McNeil would be able to make the needed adjustments and figure out the throw with enough reps, the defensive metrics do show he can handle third base otherwise. And he adapted quickly to right field when thrust into the position in 2019, after the former regime traded for an aging, recently-suspended veteran to take over second base.
In considering Villar, you not only need to factor in what happens to McNeil’s defense if he moves from 2B to 3B, there’s also the glove-work of Villar himself. He’s no Roberto Alomar in the field, but second does seem to be his most passable position. His UZR there over the last five years ranged (no pun intended) from -5.6 to 1.1, he scored -8 outs above average there in 2019 (and -1 in the short 2020), while compiling +1 DRS over the last six seasons. A mixed bag, and certainly nothing special.
But on the bright side with Villar, you get another kind of offensive threat. The switch-hitter was a 4.1 WAR player in 2019, with 24 HR, 40 SB, and 111 runs. That’s a fantasy superstar. In real life, Villar was less valuable, slashing .274/.339/.453 (.792 OPS), along with mediocre defense, inconsistent baserunning and mental lapses that made Keith Hernandez groan.
In other words, cut both Davis and Villar some slack on the shortened COVID yearand look at their 2019 standout seasons -- and here’s what you’re left with, if you want to play Villar at 2B: Similar defensive compromises, added questions about McNeil moving to third, and Davis having compiled an OPS more than 100 points higher. Villar’s speed is elite and adds an element to the lineup few players (let alone Davis) can offer. The Mets will need to decide if (or how often) that is enough to withstand the other sacrifices.
Then there’s Guillorme, whose breakout 2020 clearly made an impression on Alderson. In 2019, Baseball America raved about his defense, calling him the “best defensive infielder in the system, with quick reflexes and sure hands that make him reliable at second, third or short.” Truth be told, he hasn’t seen enough third in the big leagues for the defensive metrics to tell us much. But it’s very likely that fielding won’t be a liability for the 26-year old Venezuelan native. Offensively, the left-handed batter got on base at an exciting .426 rate in 2020, but it may not be prudent to derive too many conclusions off of a 57 at-bat sample -- especially when his OBP was more than 100 points lower in each of the prior seasons in similarly sized samples.
In the end, Davis will likely get the call on Opening Day, and an initial analysis does not refute that decision. But the Mets do have intriguing options here. And if the right-hander struggles — whether defensively or offensively — the club’s new depth means patience will no longer be a necessary virtue.