Who's got the right stuff?

Morning Dose: Thursday, April 17

☀️ Good Morning:

Since I’m on vacation this week, I didn’t get a chance to catch yesterday’s game, following along on my phone as we moved between exhibits at the National Art Gallery.

There’s nothing like checking for updates, seeing the same score… checking for updates, seeing the same score… and finally glancing down at your phone and seeing there had been a rally.

It allowed me to miss all of the squandered opportunities (3-for-12 with runners in scoring position), and simply feel good about a 3–0 deficit turning into a tied game in the eighth.

Of course, that didn’t last long, as the Twins took the rubber game in the 10th.

The Mets return home for a seven-game homestand with an 11–7 record and one game lead over the Phillies in the NL East.

☕️ Grab your *second* coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

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Box Score | Full Standings

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⚾️ Who’s got the right stuff?

It’s still early in the season, we don’t have a ton of data, but I thought it would be interesting to take a peek at the early pitch modeling numbers to see if they match the eye test.

We know which pitchers have been throwing the ball well this season, and which have not. Luckily, for the Mets, the list of high performers is pretty long so far.

As a reminder, Pitching+ (inclusive of Stuff+ and Location+) is a model created by Eno Sarris and Max Bay, with inspiration from a host of others. The model attempts to quantify the underlying characteristics and intent of each pitch.

• Stuff+ focuses on the physical characteristics of the pitch (release point, velocity, movement)

• Location+ attempts to quantify the placement of each pitch (based on count and pitch type)

In short, these metrics tell us who is throwing stuff that is hard to hit, who is commanding the ball well, and overall, who we should expect to see good results from in the coming months.

📈 To start, I charted the difference in overall Stuff+ numbers from 2024 to 2025. You can see both Ryne Stanek and Tylor Megill jump to the top of the list as early gainers. This matches what we have seen from our seats and on our television screens.