JB, I was thinking that the fact you are an economist is a strength of Mets Fix. You look at the numbers, ground everything in reality, have a certain type of analytical mind.
But I think you are completely 100% wrong with the hand wringing over payroll tax. Getting under the tax hit can't be the goal that is put before winning. Not after you go out and get Soto. Not after you announce to the world your goal of winning championships. Not after the clear need to improve ticket sales and build value in the franchise.
(Query: What is a ticket sale worth to an organization? On average? A team sells 1 million tickets. The next year they sell an additional 250,000 tickets. How much money can you place on each additional ticket sale in terms of added revenue? Parking, concessions, merchandise, ticket cost. But I digress.)
You claim that it "can't go on forever." And, okay, *maybe* that's true. But only maybe. And forever is a long time. Meanwhile, we are living in the here and now. This Mets team isn't good enough as currently rostered. Cohen must spend -- MUST SPEND BIG -- or he undermines everything he's aiming for.
Over time, sure, there will be opportunities to lower payroll. The answer is young, *productive* players. Developing a great farm system. Vientos and Alvarez are a start. Maybe Sproat and Scott develop and win games at minimum salaries. Maybe McLean becomes our closer. Maybe Williams and Mauricio become key contributors. Maybe Benge comes along and replaces Nimmo. At that point, Stearns could lower payroll.
Side note: In the podcast you made the point that now, because of the tax, the Mets have to pay twice as much for every player they sign. That's a little disingenuous. The tax is on total payroll. So if they sign a reliever in February at $14 million AAV, that doesn't mean it is costing the Mets $28 million. In one narrow way, yes, it means exactly that. But that's mostly a function of timing. It's not that Diaz & Nimmo & others are not taxed. It's on the whole.
I think of the way the Wilpons operated. There are two MLB franchises in NY. Imagine that they owned a restaurant space on Park Avenue. For 35 years, they had grimy floors, cheap chairs, wobbly tables, and sold patty melts. If they earned a small profit, maybe they painted the walls or put in new linoleum flooring. Cohen watched this and shook his head. So much potential revenue wasted. An opportunity squandered. When he took over, he wanted the restaurant to bring in 4x the revenue. Easily done! But he had to make an initial investment. Italian marble flooring. A top chef. All new furniture. No more patty melts. If you are looking at the marble and the expensive chef, thinking that Cohen is losing so much money, you are missing the business venture entirely. He's investing, knowing that there's a golden opportunity to (easily) triple the value of this franchise. But he knows he's not getting there by selling patty melts.
Regarding Alonso, it seems that both sides are now leaking a bit to the media. Alonso is coming off as very delusional. Fact is, he rejected a great offer from the Mets and then fired his long time agent to chase $ with Boras. Now, he’s coming off his third straight year where his numbers have declined and his worst statistical season. Yet, he for some reason thinks he’s now worth more than the original offer.
He is delusional. Take the three years, $90 million with opt-outs and STFU. If someone really wanted him, they would have secured him already. As it is, it seems to me the Mets' message clear: "we can take you or leave you, Pete."
On Alonso: I think of it like real estate. He's put his house up for sale and listed it for a very high number. The Mets made an offer that he rejected. Okay. Now we wait for Pete to lower the list price. If he doesn't send that signal, there's nothing for the Mets to do. It would be stupid to wildly overpay above market value. However, at some point the Mets will need a place to live.
The danger with creative contracts such as 3/$90 with opt-outs is that it opens up the market to other teams. The Cardinals, for example. The Giants. And so on.
Do I think Pete is massively dumb enough to walk away from a perfect situation here in NY? Yes, I do. And if so, shrug. There are more ways to skin to cat.
Alonso is going to be one of Boras’ failure poster children. They are out there with many signing into spring training at nowhere near what he told them they would get if they signed him to be their agent. They had one year prove it deals or two year contracts with opt outs which to me offers Zero to the player and the delusions of grandeur Boras sold himself as. Getting hurt is a very real possibility in baseball especially as a pitcher but we’ve seen position players with half season or longer injuries too which if you’re in a constant contract year certainly reduces your next contract and as we all know Father Time is undefeated. Pete will age just fine as a DH and if he cranks 30HR’s each year he will be a journeyman lifer like JD. I almost think Stearns wants nothing to do with Pete and has his plans already moving on from him. I’m not saying he’s gone but him turning down the $158 million is a pipe dream for him now. I’m all for Starling and Jeff for a bag of balls letting some youngsters come up and play. I feel Guerrero is already on the radar and if Pete doesn’t come back I’d say he’s in a Mets uniform come trade deadline if Jeff and Marte are still Mets. I like the idea of Q coming back. People don’t recall that he pitched solidly for them over that whole contract and took the ball every 5th day. Yes I know he had a stint but came back and was lights out. He’s a veteran arm and come playoffs could come out of the pen and at the very least eat innings. I for see a trade coming and should the Padres get Sasaki then Cease would be on the block and we have the position players they would want in return. Plus a cheap arm or two. Stearns has a surplus of both to swing a deal or two. Patience is a virtue(at least it used to be) my mom always told me and we need to see how it’s being exercised here. I’m not sure uncle Steve cares about the money. They don’t in LA or in the Bronx so why should he. The CBA isn’t going to go backwards that I can assure you and I don’t want to hear shit about smaller market teams. Pittsburghs owner is a cheap POS. and refuses to put any real money into a team that would win the central easily if he spent 20-30 million more which is easily affordable for them. He would get that back in playoff TV revenue but he doesn’t seem to understand that. I’m looking at Jones from Pittsburgh anyways. Stearns has relationships with all those central teams and I’m sure knows plenty about all their farm teams too. Patience my dear fans. Patience.
JB, I was thinking that the fact you are an economist is a strength of Mets Fix. You look at the numbers, ground everything in reality, have a certain type of analytical mind.
But I think you are completely 100% wrong with the hand wringing over payroll tax. Getting under the tax hit can't be the goal that is put before winning. Not after you go out and get Soto. Not after you announce to the world your goal of winning championships. Not after the clear need to improve ticket sales and build value in the franchise.
(Query: What is a ticket sale worth to an organization? On average? A team sells 1 million tickets. The next year they sell an additional 250,000 tickets. How much money can you place on each additional ticket sale in terms of added revenue? Parking, concessions, merchandise, ticket cost. But I digress.)
You claim that it "can't go on forever." And, okay, *maybe* that's true. But only maybe. And forever is a long time. Meanwhile, we are living in the here and now. This Mets team isn't good enough as currently rostered. Cohen must spend -- MUST SPEND BIG -- or he undermines everything he's aiming for.
Over time, sure, there will be opportunities to lower payroll. The answer is young, *productive* players. Developing a great farm system. Vientos and Alvarez are a start. Maybe Sproat and Scott develop and win games at minimum salaries. Maybe McLean becomes our closer. Maybe Williams and Mauricio become key contributors. Maybe Benge comes along and replaces Nimmo. At that point, Stearns could lower payroll.
Side note: In the podcast you made the point that now, because of the tax, the Mets have to pay twice as much for every player they sign. That's a little disingenuous. The tax is on total payroll. So if they sign a reliever in February at $14 million AAV, that doesn't mean it is costing the Mets $28 million. In one narrow way, yes, it means exactly that. But that's mostly a function of timing. It's not that Diaz & Nimmo & others are not taxed. It's on the whole.
I think of the way the Wilpons operated. There are two MLB franchises in NY. Imagine that they owned a restaurant space on Park Avenue. For 35 years, they had grimy floors, cheap chairs, wobbly tables, and sold patty melts. If they earned a small profit, maybe they painted the walls or put in new linoleum flooring. Cohen watched this and shook his head. So much potential revenue wasted. An opportunity squandered. When he took over, he wanted the restaurant to bring in 4x the revenue. Easily done! But he had to make an initial investment. Italian marble flooring. A top chef. All new furniture. No more patty melts. If you are looking at the marble and the expensive chef, thinking that Cohen is losing so much money, you are missing the business venture entirely. He's investing, knowing that there's a golden opportunity to (easily) triple the value of this franchise. But he knows he's not getting there by selling patty melts.
Great listen on the treadmill. Happy holiday, all!
Working off those cookies?
JB, Blake, stop worrying about Steve Cohen's money! He will eventually turn a profit and all will be well in Metsland.
Love the pod!
Enjoyed the pod.
Regarding Alonso, it seems that both sides are now leaking a bit to the media. Alonso is coming off as very delusional. Fact is, he rejected a great offer from the Mets and then fired his long time agent to chase $ with Boras. Now, he’s coming off his third straight year where his numbers have declined and his worst statistical season. Yet, he for some reason thinks he’s now worth more than the original offer.
You almost feel bad for the guy at this point.
He is delusional. Take the three years, $90 million with opt-outs and STFU. If someone really wanted him, they would have secured him already. As it is, it seems to me the Mets' message clear: "we can take you or leave you, Pete."
Enjoyed hearing your voices.
On Alonso: I think of it like real estate. He's put his house up for sale and listed it for a very high number. The Mets made an offer that he rejected. Okay. Now we wait for Pete to lower the list price. If he doesn't send that signal, there's nothing for the Mets to do. It would be stupid to wildly overpay above market value. However, at some point the Mets will need a place to live.
The danger with creative contracts such as 3/$90 with opt-outs is that it opens up the market to other teams. The Cardinals, for example. The Giants. And so on.
Do I think Pete is massively dumb enough to walk away from a perfect situation here in NY? Yes, I do. And if so, shrug. There are more ways to skin to cat.
He is dumb enough, you’re right. He is going to cut his nose off to spite his face (my mother used to say this).
Alonso is going to be one of Boras’ failure poster children. They are out there with many signing into spring training at nowhere near what he told them they would get if they signed him to be their agent. They had one year prove it deals or two year contracts with opt outs which to me offers Zero to the player and the delusions of grandeur Boras sold himself as. Getting hurt is a very real possibility in baseball especially as a pitcher but we’ve seen position players with half season or longer injuries too which if you’re in a constant contract year certainly reduces your next contract and as we all know Father Time is undefeated. Pete will age just fine as a DH and if he cranks 30HR’s each year he will be a journeyman lifer like JD. I almost think Stearns wants nothing to do with Pete and has his plans already moving on from him. I’m not saying he’s gone but him turning down the $158 million is a pipe dream for him now. I’m all for Starling and Jeff for a bag of balls letting some youngsters come up and play. I feel Guerrero is already on the radar and if Pete doesn’t come back I’d say he’s in a Mets uniform come trade deadline if Jeff and Marte are still Mets. I like the idea of Q coming back. People don’t recall that he pitched solidly for them over that whole contract and took the ball every 5th day. Yes I know he had a stint but came back and was lights out. He’s a veteran arm and come playoffs could come out of the pen and at the very least eat innings. I for see a trade coming and should the Padres get Sasaki then Cease would be on the block and we have the position players they would want in return. Plus a cheap arm or two. Stearns has a surplus of both to swing a deal or two. Patience is a virtue(at least it used to be) my mom always told me and we need to see how it’s being exercised here. I’m not sure uncle Steve cares about the money. They don’t in LA or in the Bronx so why should he. The CBA isn’t going to go backwards that I can assure you and I don’t want to hear shit about smaller market teams. Pittsburghs owner is a cheap POS. and refuses to put any real money into a team that would win the central easily if he spent 20-30 million more which is easily affordable for them. He would get that back in playoff TV revenue but he doesn’t seem to understand that. I’m looking at Jones from Pittsburgh anyways. Stearns has relationships with all those central teams and I’m sure knows plenty about all their farm teams too. Patience my dear fans. Patience.
I believe the Dodgers and Yankees are making money.
MLB does not open its books and so they cry poverty. Forgive me if I don't believe a word of it.
The NBA does open their books and every single team is turning a profit, year after year after year.