What to do with Eduardo Escobar?
Plus, the latest on Carlos Correa
Good Morning,
Are you getting nervous yet?
If you’re like me, you’re at least starting to get twitchy from constantly checking Twitter notifications for a Carlos Correa resolution that never comes.
Following a period of relative silence through the holidays, the chatter around Correa is starting to pick up again. First, Ken Rosenthal sent the aggregators into a tizzy by noting a deal with the Mets could look “dramatically different” than the original 12-year, $315 million framework.
Then, it was Jon Heyman’s turn to drop some breadcrumbs for news-hungry fans. Or, more accurately, to help Scott Boras try to create some leverage in the final round of negotiations.
Heyman’s latest report notes Boras has “checked in with other teams,” including the Twins, as discussions with the Mets have dragged on. Heyman quickly adds a quote from a source that says, “Ultimately, I don’t think Mr. Cohen is going to let him go,” referring to Correa.
This coming only hours after the NY Post ran an article co-authored by Heyman that was titled “Mets gaining momentum toward Carlos Correa deal.” And after Andy Martino tweeted the sides were “working toward a resolution” that he is hearing could come “sooner than later.”
Amazing how quickly Boras must have texted Heyman with an update.
🍎 We have an exciting issue today with Blake Zeff returning to offer his thoughts on Eduardo Escobar’s future with the Mets. But before we get into that, let’s catch you up on a few quick notes.
🍕 DINNER: Over the holidays, former Yankee Masahiro Tanaka had dinner with new Met Kodai Senga. The two were teammates for Japan in the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics.
🔝 PROSPECTS: MLB Pipeline highlighted Jett Williams as a prospect that could break out in 2023 for the Mets:
New York made noise by grabbing MLB Pipeline’s sixth-ranked Draft prospect Kevin Parada at No. 11 last July. Three picks later, they also nabbed Williams (the No. 21 Draft prospect), and while he may have had a lower profile than his new Mets counterpart, some evaluators believe Williams might end up being the better player. The 19-year-old shortstop already shows a good feel to hit and has the plus speed desired in a sport putting added emphasis on the basepaths. He’ll have a chance to make everyone take notice likely starting at Single-A St. Lucie this spring.
🧑🦱 by Blake Zeff
Assuming Carlos Correa (at some point) receives a paycheck from the Mets, some are suggesting the team should find a way to trade incumbent third baseman Eduardo Escobar. On the surface this may make sense — they no longer need the switch-hitting Escobar to man the hot corner everyday. But the Mets should strongly reconsider this impulse.
Here's why:
❶ The Designated Hitter Role
If you deal Escobar, then you're probably committing to the law firm of Vogelbach & Ruf as your designated hitter tandem. Does that excite you?
Such a platoon might make sense if you look at their lefty-righty splits, but its weaknesses were apparent last season. You'd be filling two roster spots with players who have little to no defensive value, limiting the team's depth and versatility. Both are slow runners, meaning they have to be pinch-run for in any meaningful spot late in the game. And in the case of Vogelbach, he's such a liability on the basepaths that advancing a standard base cannot be assumed. That may not show up in the boxscore or even advanced metrics, but it can weigh down a big inning (up to four times per game).
The reality is that Vogelbach's particular skill-set would make him a terrific pinch-hitting threat off the bench, in the mold of a Matt Franco or Rusty Staub from decades past. The best way to do that? Slot Escobar in as your starting DH. He has the bat to give you offensively what you can reasonably expect from the Vogelbach-Ruf tandem (Baseball Reference projects each of the three to have an OPS in the .717-.744 range next season). Plus, he can hit from both sides of the plate, precluding the need for a platoon that would gobble up an extra bench slot. (In this scenario, the Mets can part ways with Ruf).
Escobar also runs well enough to not hurt you on the basepaths 4-5 times per game. And his place on the roster enables you to use the DH to give guys like Correa, Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil a breather on any given day, by simply sliding Escobar into their place on the field so they can take the DH spot.
❷ Depth and versatility
On that note, if someone's hurt in the infield, you've got a solid fielder and everyday player in Escobar (assuming you don't trade him) that you can slot in to take over. If there's an injury in the outfield, Escobar's ability to play a quality second base enables you to plug the hole with McNeil.
I can hear you saying, “What about Luis Guillorme?” He's great, and I love him as much as anyone. But you can never have too much depth. And besides, if and when there's an injury, maybe the answer is to put Guillorme in the field and leave Escobar as DH. The point is you'd have options.
Some of you might also be saying, “What about Brett Baty?” That's a good question. But it's the signing of Correa — not keeping Escobar around for one year — that's really blocking the former first rounder. The Mets will have to figure out what they're going to do long term with Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos, but holding on to Eduardo Escobar for 2023 shouldn't affect those decisions in a major way. Similarly, Francisco Álvarez may be an option as DH of the future, but it looks like the club is holding out hope that he can still become a Major League catcher.
❸ It's Steve Cohen
Many of us have been conditioned to think that the Mets have to move Escobar because they could be taking on a lot of salary for Correa, and Escobar will make a decent chunk of change, himself.
That's Wilpon-era thinking. Steve Cohen can afford the $10 million to hold onto an in-house upgrade at DH. He's paying Robinson Canó double that to go nowhere near his team.
Now, having said all this, if there's a trade involving Escobar that makes sense for the Mets for baseball reasons, by all means entertain it. There's no reason to hold onto him for sentimental reasons. But as it stands now, he's the best option on this club to start at DH in 2023. And it's not worth dumping his salary to change that.
◾️ The Yankees are hiring former Mets executive Omar Minaya as a senior advisor to baseball operations.
◾️ Joey Votto cautioned that he might not be ready for the start of the 2023 season after undergoing surgery to repair a rotator cuff tear in his left shoulder.
◾️ The Reds released Mike Moustakas with $22 million left on his deal.
◾️ The Diamondbacks signed third baseman Evan Longoria to a one-year deal.
◾️ Padres’ all-time HR leader, Nate Colbert, passed away at the age of 76.
🔗 Where Carlos Correa’s free agency saga stands right now: Mets mailbag, by Will Sammon, The Athletic ($): “In theory, there’s still time to pivot elsewhere if something doesn’t work out with the Mets. In practice, however, it would be difficult to envision Correa going back into the open market after two teams have already flagged him after physicals. It would be even harder to envision a team signing him sight unseen, even on a short-term basis.”
🔗 Mets the winners of MLB offseason thus far, by Jon Heyman, NY Post: “The monster deals happened so fast it’s easy to pinpoint winter winners already. There’s always the threat of a trade, but it’s possible the only real difference-making deal officially left to go regards superstar infielder Carlos Correa, and we’ve thought for a couple weeks we’ve known how that’s going to turn out — with Correa winding up in Queens. (Of course there’s no guarantee, and the incumbent Twins and others are standing by and monitoring, so the Mets’ position on the leaderboard gets a * for incomplete.)”
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Great comments on EE. I’m convinced. The versatility angle seems a huge upside. Also, should injuries require a move near the trade deadline, his value to another contender could get the Mets a big piece in return.
Amen Blake! Thank you!