🧑🦱 by Blake Zeff
We’ll start this off with a spoiler: The Mets should extend Francisco Lindor. He’s a generational talent — adept at (switch) hitting, fielding, running, hitting for power and a positive leader on any team, all at a premium position (and, oh yeah, he’s also in his prime). The Mets are lucky to have him in the franchise, and the fan base is going to fall in love with him. Plus, the club gave up some quality talent to land him (and excellent starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco). Oh, and their owner, Steve Cohen, can afford the big contract because he has a lot of money. Way more than you or me.
But — you knew there was a but coming — what if they don’t? We are now two weeks into spring training, and negotiations have not yet begun, so far as anyone outside of the two sides knows. Lindor previously indicated he wanted a potential deal done before opening day, which gives the Mets about a month left. Shortly after they completed the trade for Lindor and Carrasco, SNY’s Andy Martino reported that the front office would consider the deal satisfactory if it only resulted in one year of control for Lindor and three for Carrasco. In other words, they made the swap without an expectation of extending the star shortstop.
And yet, everyone understands that when you acquire a superstar, you want to keep that superstar. And after Fernando Tatis, Jr., netted a $340 million contract, expectations around baseball are that Lindor might seek similar money. If the Mets can’t reach an agreement with their shortstop, that would not be ideal. But would it be fatal?
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The Mets may actually have more leverage than it seems. There are 14 billion and four reasons why.
The first fourteen billion reasons are in Steve Cohen’s bank account. The hedge-fund maestro is worth 14,000 millionaires, and that means that even if he misses out on Lindor this off-season, he can still afford to out-spend any other suitor for him nextoff-season, if need be. Or, Cohen can use that fortune to acquire another marquee shortstop. Which brings us to the other four reasons not to fret too much: Along with Lindor, shortstops Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez are alsofree agents next year. Which means, sure, the Mets would love to keep Lindor in blue and orange (and maybe black?) for the next decade. But if they fail to reel him in this month, they’ll have plenty of more-than-decent fallback options awaiting them in November.
In essence, there are four potential scenarios awaiting the Mets right now, as it relates to Lindor:
1) They extend him, and he’s awesome. This one feels the most likely right now. And it works out for everyone. It’s the outcome I’m rooting for: Lindor is a Met until 2030 (the final years of that deal may not be so hot, but that’s the price of business), and the club has a dynamic leader locked in place. This is the outcome you want to root for.
2) They extend him, but he’s a bust. It’s hard to imagine Lindor falling off a cliff. He’s 27, he’s played on the big stage in postseason and All-Star games, and other than the weird, abbreviated 2020, he’s been a consistent stallion. But the possibility isn’t null — Mets fans don’t need me to remind them of middle infielders who’ve come to New York and forgotten how to play (ahem, Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Luis Castillo, Kaz Matsui, Robinson Cano). And, while the likelihood is tiny, this would be the most regrettable of all the options: being stuck with a bloated contract that you’re still paying down in 2030.
3) They don’t extend him, and he’s a bust in his one season here. This isn’t a great scenario — you had high hopes, you traded some talent for him — but it’s not the worst. You essentially dodged a bullet, by cutting your losses and avoiding a Jacoby-Ellsworth-on-steroids type contract disaster. And Story, Seager, Correa and Baez are more than acceptable options waiting for you at season’s end.
4) They don’t extend him, and he’s incredible. This may happen, too. But here’s the thing. If Francisco Lindor has an amazing season in New York, it stands to reason that he’d at least be open to the idea of returning, even if the team didn’t extend him sooner. The risk here is that you might be able to get him for $300 million now, but if he takes home the MVP this year, he’s upped his value to $400 million. But this is not an insurmountable obstacle. Why? As noted above, Steve Cohen has $14 billion. He can afford the higher price on Lindor (remember, it’s not your money). Besides, even if you do miss out on Lindor at that point, Uncle Steve still has that cash and the remaining four shortstops are also on the market.
Ultimately, the feel-good story is the Mets extend Francisco Lindor this month, he dazzles us this season and beyond, and eventually joins Seaver, Piazza and Wright on Mets Mount Rushmore. But if they don’t? You’ve eliminated any chance of the nightmare scenario of blowing $300 million on a guy who falters (as improbable as that is). You can still sign him at the end of the year using Cohen Bucks. And if that doesn’t pan out? You’ll get a different big-time shortstop instead.
So I hope the Mets extend Francisco Lindor this month. But if not? There are those 14 billion and four reasons not to launch into full-blown panic.
all great points on Lindor