What does March predict?
It is common practice for regional networks to wait until the first home game to start televising Spring Training games — but after an offseason that ushered in a new owner and superstar player, SNY found itself scurrying to locate a camera behind home plate in Jupiter, Florida yesterday so it could broadcast the top of the first inning against the Marlins.
It’s March 1st, and Mets fans couldn’t wait another day to see their favorite baseball team play. But once the excitement of catching the first glimpse of that iconic blue and orange uniform wears off, everyone is reminded it’s only Spring Training. There are still four weeks to go until games start to matter in the standings.
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Which brings us to the annual question of whether Grapefruit League games provide any indication of future success. In other words, does it matter if the Mets finish 6-24 instead of 24-6, to use an extreme example?
It turns out, it actually could, and perhaps more so than you might have thought. Looking at Spring Training records compared to regular season records between 1984 to 2019, William Juliano of The Captain’s Blog found extreme preseason outcomes can be quite predictive:
Since 1984, having a horrible spring has generally meant a losing regular season. Nearly 75% of teams with a winning percentage below 30% in March ended up finishing the regular season below .500. Meanwhile, on the positive end, though the relationship hasn’t been as strong, a still sizeable 65% of teams that were successful in 70% of their spring training games have gone to a winning regular season.
For the teams who finish in the middle of the pack, as you might have guessed, there is less of a pattern in terms of how they perform in the regular season. And this part is key:
Playing between .300 and .600 in spring training has proven to have little predictive value as the relative distribution of regular season records has been somewhat even.
So in a perfect world, you would kick ass in March, continue that trend into the season, and let it carry you all the way to the playoffs. And this has been the path of several clubs, as 65% of playoff teams teams had a winning record in Spring Training, according to Juliano’s research; and only 12% reached the postseason when they won less than 40% of their exhibition affairs.
How have the Mets performed? As my dad instantly reminded me after yesterday’s 2-0 loss, they usually stink this time of year. The Mets haven’t had a winning Spring Training record since 2015—conveniently, the year they went to the World Series.
Overall, the Mets have played in the middle range, the gray area that isn’t as predictive. But it is interesting to see how often they have turned their Florida results in the opposite direction: In nine of the previous 15 seasons, they have outperformed their Spring Training winning percentage; half of their six winning campaigns in that time have started with sub-par springs; and with the exception of 2006, every .500 or better Grapefruit finish has failed to lead to the same level of success in the regular season.
If you stop paying attention to exhibition games after the first few, I get it (plus, you subscribe to this newsletter, so we can help you sound smart even when you don’t watch the games). But if you’re looking for a tell about the upcoming season, you should either hope they finish somewhere in the middle, or pray they don’t sh*t the bed. Or since they are the Mets, throw your hands in the air, because — chances are — they will follow their own trend, anyway.
In other words, relish the fact that some sort of baseball is back to enjoy — and don’t worry about the results too much.
Unless they get really bad.