Good Morning!
We’ve been on pause long enough, it’s time to get back into the swing of things, even if baseball, itself, is still frozen in collective bargaining talks. Starting this week, we will publish on a semi-regular basis until there is real news to talk about.
Today, we will dive into some of the details of the CBA negotiations and how they could impact the Mets. But first, let’s catch you up on the latest news.
Let’s catch you up on what happened this week…
💰 GETTING PAID: We learned Buck Showalter will make $11.25 million over his three-year contract to manage the Mets, which makes him the highest-paid skipper in Mets history, breaking the previous mark of $9.4 million set by… wait for it… Art Howe.
🏆 HALL OF FAME: Former Mets closer Billy Wagner received 51% of the vote in his seventh year of eligibility to be elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
🌴 SPRING TRAINING: As MLB and the MLBPA continue to negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement (much more in a bit), Mets GM Billy Eppler and Showalter plan on heading down to Florida in preparation for when the lockout eventually ends.
YOUNG GUNS: While management is prohibited from talking to players on the 40-man roster during the lockout, they can at least start building relationships with non-40-man players, such as top prospects Francisco Álvarez and Brett Baty.
KEEPING BUSY: Eppler has found plenty of ways to keep busy during the lockout, as he explained to reporters earlier this week: “Now it’s time for me to really connect with player development, with amateur scouting, with pro scouting, with amateur international scouting, with analytics, with performance science, the general front office and baseball operations, the baseball systems group,” he said. “There’s a lot of ideas people have and there’s a lot of initiatives we want to implement as we move forward. So I won’t be bored.”
📺 MEET THE PRESS: Eppler and Showalter met with the media on Tuesday to discuss the hiring of the new coaching staff and to give a broad update on team affairs [Watch the full press conference here].
HIRES: As a reminder, the 2022 coaching staff will include Glenn Sherlock (bench coach), Wayne Kirby (first base), Joey Cora (third base), Eric Chavez (hitting), Jeremy Barnes (assistant hitting), Jeremy Hefner (pitching), Craig Bjornson (bullpen).
AN UNDERSTANDING: After making headlines for hiring Chavez away from their cross-town rivals, Eppler said he talked to Yankees GM Brian Cashman before the hire and they “had an understanding that if the lead role opened [with the Mets], and [Chavez] won the day, that he would get their blessing.”
DIVERSITY: “When we set out to assemble this coaching staff, diversification of skill set was something we talked about,” Eppler said. “We wanted to have as many angles covered as we could have covered.”
FINAL TWEAKS: As for the roster, Eppler said he felt good about where they are, but some final tweaks could be made when the lockout ends: “One of the things that I really like to do is about a week or two before spring training ends, the over-under totals are posted publicly. I prefer the outside view. I know we're good. But I prefer to get the outside view to kind of set things from an exterior standpoint. But internally, we feel good about where we are but also acknowledge there's always room to improve.”
🗣 RUMORS: Speaking of roster tweaks, Andy Martino reports the Mets haven’t been “seriously considering headline-grabbing names like Kris Bryant or Carlos Correa since November.” But when the lockout ends, they are “willing to listen to trade offers on Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, and Dominic Smith.” He also adds former Mariners lefty Yusei Kikuchi is a “distinct possibility” for starting pitching depth.
🇩🇴 CARIBBEAN SERIES: If you’re searching for some baseball to watch, the Caribbean Series starts today in the Dominican Republic. Robinson Canó will be playing for his home country.
📚 ON THIS DATE IN 1977: Tom Seaver breaks his nose and gets a black eye while playing squash. “As long as it's not his arm, it's OK with us,” said Joe McDonald.
🤖 BOBBLEHEADS: The Steve Cohen regime continues to hit home runs with promotional ideas, including bobbleheads for our favorite announcers:
💵 LOCKOUT TALK ⚾️
It’s almost February and we still have no timeline for when baseball will return to normal operations, as the players and owners play chicken with each other in negotiating a new CBA. There was some progress this week, with the two sides meeting in person on back-to-back days and making minor concessions to suggest they are at least positioning themselves toward making a deal.
We wish we were talking about pitchers and catchers reporting in a few weeks, but since we are still in lockout mode, we thought it would be interesting to examine some of the key issues and potential outcomes of the CBA negotiations, and how they could impact the Mets.
How does a new CBA impact payroll?
Let’s start with what the owners and players are fighting about: money.
Not long ago, spending hundreds of millions of dollars on free agents was merely a dream for Mets fans. Now it is a reality under billionaire Steve Cohen. The Mets are projected to have a payroll over $270 million next season, most in the majors and well above the current luxury tax thresholds. Money is no longer an obstacle for the Amazins, which is important context in evaluating the potential impact of these CBA negotiations.
The issues that are most contentious between the owners and players boil down to how quickly players get paid and how aggressive owners are in fielding a competitive team. Neither issue is likely to result in an outcome that should cause heartburn to the Mets. But let’s dive into the details.
❶ How quickly players get paid. In early proposals, the players hoped to expedite the time it takes veterans to reach free agency, shaving off a year for players who are at least 29.5 years old. The MLBPA has since pulled this off the table. Had it remained a sticking point (or becomes one again), it likely wouldn’t go into effect immediately, but would help a player like Jeff McNeil hit the open market a year sooner.
Where the players and owners are digging their heels in is on arbitration. The players want to reach arbitration sooner (after two years instead of three for most existing cases). While the two sides inch towards common ground on raising the minimum salary, a sticking point remains on how many years players are stuck earning the minimum before their performance on the field can dictate larger raises.
Again, this is an issue that would have sent shivers down the spine of a penny-pinching Mets team owned by someone else, but should have minimal consequence for Mr. Cohen. If Francisco Álvarez gets paid more in his second season than he otherwise would have in the previous CBA, so be it; that shouldn’t prevent the team from paying the players around him.
What seems most likely at this point is a negotiated deal that results in more money for players with two years of service time (through a bonus pool funded by the league), but less than players who are fully arbitration-eligible. Minimal impact on the Mets.
❷ Competitive Balance. Now, if a few small-market owners had their way, just as the Mets were finally open for business and willing to spend whatever it takes to win, the tax man would come knocking on their door to collect a prohibitively hefty sum. Some owners want to impose a stiffer penalty on teams with bloated payrolls; but in negotiating with players who want higher tax thresholds and with fellow owners who would prefer to pay less in taxes, the likelihood of a new system that makes it increasingly difficult for wealthy owners to spend seems small.
Logically, adjusting revenue sharing formulas and draft system rules are more realistic ideas for improving competitiveness throughout the league. Instead of forcing the Mets to spend less, perhaps the Marlins could spend more — and perhaps they would if they weren’t receiving checks from the Yankees. However, the league’s collective stance is that revenue sharing is an “untouchable” issue.
We probably won’t see significant changes in this area. If we somehow do, this is obviously where the Mets would be most impacted. But don’t expect anyone to keep Uncle Stevie’s finances in check anytime soon (and it’s not impossible for him to gain some breathing room with a higher initial tax threshold). Minimal impact on the Mets.
What if the season is delayed?
Unless Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association come to an agreement within the next week or two (which seems very unlikely), we are trending towards a delayed start to the 2022 season. It’s unclear how the schedule would be impacted if Opening Day is pushed back, but if the season is inevitably shortened, it has implications for the Mets.
If we turned last season into a Mets-themed Wordle, CRAMP would be the word of the day. Keeping players healthy and on the field is an area where the organization needs to improve. While Steve Cohen continues to pump resources into solving the problem, it’s hard to affect change when team facilities have been shut down for the entire winter.
The success of the 2022 Mets largely rests on the arms of a 37-year-old pitcher who ended last season with a “dead arm” and another ace hurler who sat out the final three months of the season with forearm and elbow issues. Because of the lockout, Mets coaches and trainers haven’t been able to track Jacob deGrom’s progress or learn more about Max Scherzer’s offseason routine.
Only two teams had players miss more days on the IL than the Mets last season. A dark winter and an accelerated Spring Training poses a health risk to all teams, but for a franchise snakebitten by injury, it becomes particularly concerning.
What about the DH or expanded playoffs?
We could write a daily newsletter that simply focuses on how MLB could improve the game of baseball. Did someone say ban the shift?! Unfortunately, on-field issues are not part of the current round of negotiations between the players and owners. The two sides seem content on settling the financial differences, leaving little time to debate rule changes.
However, there are two areas where we will likely see on-field changes next season.
First, the universal DH. This is a bargaining chip that makes sense for both the owners and players. It would be a boon for the Mets under their current roster construction. While we will continue to enjoy highlights of Bartolo Colon’s home run and undoubtedly find ourselves thinking Jacob deGrom might be the team’s best hitter on a given slow offensive night, adding the DH allows the Mets flexibility in playing Pete Alonso, Dom Smith, JD Davis and dare we say, Robinson Cano?!
Second, expanded playoffs. Both the owners and players have floated ideas for adding playoff teams to the mix in the new CBA. How many and what the playoff structure would look like still needs to be decided, but it appears there will be an extra spot (or two) for the Mets to chase in trying to end their five-year postseason drought.
🔗 Still plenty for Mets, Billy Eppler, Buck Showalter to do once MLB lockout ends, by Deesha Thosar, NY Daily News: “The dust has settled and the place the Mets are at now features high expectations. They have a beloved skipper, a talented roster, a new leader in the front office and a billionaire owner who likes to win. The Mets set the Hot Stove on fire before the lockout and are expected to be at the center of it once again whenever the transaction freeze ends. These next few weeks offer a necessary lull period for a team that hasn’t had many of them. But, as has been the case in the past several weeks, Eppler and Showalter are ready and waiting to burn rubber as soon as the league waves the green flag.”
🔗 Five thoughts about the Mets’ roster as it currently stands, with the help of stat projections, by Tim Britton, The Athletic ($): “Lindor’s September output was the most encouraging step of his 2021 campaign. He hit nine homers in the final 32 days of the season, including three memorable ones in a game against the Yankees, and looked every bit the superstar offensive performer the Mets believed they were acquiring in January.”
🔗 How Sustainable Is Starling Marte’s 2021 Performance? by Matt Musico, MetsMerized Online: “Can Marte reproduce what he just did? Well, that’s of course possible. He’ll likely need to keep up his altered approach at the plate while maximizing his contact to make it happen. Even if his numbers slip back toward the mean and are similar to what’s above, his presence at the top of the Mets’ everyday lineup will be a huge plus for this club.”
And we leave you with an update from Carlos Carrasco on his elbow surgery recovery…
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Welcome back. May the lockout end soon.
So great to see you back!