Let’s have peace at MetsFix. “Fight the real enemy” and tear up a pic of Joey Buttafuoco just like Madonna. Or if you insist on OG...Sinead O’Connor & Pope.
One reason the Mets wouldn’t want to rely on Correa as DH only option in back years - it would constrain the potential value of Othani. They need their long term contract players to be able to play the field. Bummer situation but the Mets did what they needed to do - hold the line & move on.
I think Cohen has shown us that he willing to take short term risk, but not long term. The Verlander and Scherzer contracts only set you back for a couple of years if the players flop. Almost all of these megadeals we are seeing will be an albatross in the later years. Lindor will not be an elite SS at age 40 or so. Players the size of Judge don’t have long careers. With Correa’s ankle the risk is even greater.
Good point. He went long-term on Lindor and Nimmo. I think he felt he had to make a big splash with Lindor. He probably could have waited on that one. And re-signing a homegrown player is different than going after someone else’s free agent.
I don’t agree with your conclusions JB. I think Cohen cones out looking wishy washy. He’s willing to write the checks when his baseball people tell him to do so, but not willing to stand by his convictions.
Add it to the list: Alderson, Porter, Scott, McCann over Realmuto, Lindor over Arenado, trading for Baez, drafting Rocker and then changing his mind, melting down over Matz, inability to get the front office settled last fall, not getting a Schwarber like DH before last season even though he ultimately was willing to eat the Cano dollars, then letting his momo head front office get him Ruf and Vogi at the deadline, who he still has, holding on to every single “top 19” prospect when the season was set up for glory and much better hitters and relievers were available.
They’ve doubled down on the starting pitchers as savior come playoffs strategy which failed painfully last fall, not doing anything to improve the hitting which went on vacation during September and October.
Then he drunk signs Correa, going public to say this was the one thing we needed to put us over the top, to say hey it’s only money, it’s the cost of doing business, no big deal. Setting the club up for a grievance when it fell apart.
Opportunity cost: because we were in the midst of this, multiple other options to help the offense in short term high AAV deals (supposedly the plan) have signed elsewhere: Swanson, Brantley, Myers, JD Martinez, Drury, Benintendi, Segura, Longoria, Justin Turner, Conforto, Pollock, and yesterday Brandon Belt.
All those guys would have been better than Vogelbach and Ruf.
Duvall, Profar, Mancini are the last 3 options. And pray hard that Baty and Alvarez are great this season.
Because there is no turning back with the payroll commitments they have to Scherzer and Verlander. It’s win now, remember?
And btw, I can believe how simplistic the numbers trend on the Correa Zips projection. It’s a frigginn line with a gradual slope down on every single statistic starting immediately. But a single clear all star potential MVP season. How on earth is such a projection worth the money he says it’s worth?
Great thoughts, as always. You’ve mentioned the opportunity costs of missing out on several players a few times. I’m just not certain the Mets would have been heavy players on those guys even if Correa didn’t “get in the way.” And what I mean is, do the Mets sign Turner or JD to play DH if they weren’t “preoccupied” with Correa? I doubt that. Those are two unique situations. I think Pollock was looking for at-bats in Seattle that he might have struggled to get here. Conforto? I’m not sure the Mets wanted to go back there. So while I get what you’re saying, I think the next move is independent of those players.
So maybe those weren’t the guys. I was just listing everyone who signed since Dec 21, who we had no need for if we had Correa.
We are, as Cohen said, a bat short. JD Martinez is a bat. I think Justin Turner us a playoff proven bat, who can still field at third, which would have provided good depth, and in the days before Dec 21 he was the guy I wanted. Before that I wanted Boegarts, and before that Trea Turner. And Swanson came off the board in the midst of all this and he would have capped an amazing offseason just as well as we figure Correa would have. I’ve always said we need to improve the offense. And Cohen said the same thing just before Christmas. And now there are less options.
If Baty is ready to take off like a rocket and go ahead of Escobar on the depth chart, it’s a mute point. And we are just about as good as we were gonna be, except for the depth behind Lindor that Correa would have provided. But if he’s not ready to do so, we have a problem. Because that makes the odds of needing Guillorme to start 100 games high, and I’ll remind you he has never had a season free of extended time in the IL. If Danny Mendes or Jose Peraza is starting for two weeks because we have a long term injury this was a fail. If Darin Ruf is on this team, this is a fail.
Well written piece, Jeff. I would only argue your point that we're in essence 'only a couple of pieces different than last year's squad'. We do not have a pitcher at the top of the rotation who is questionable to appear in 50% of his starts followed by a guy starting to show wear and tear over the last 5-10 starts of a season and the postseason with resistance to load management. This year we have JV who will make most likely make more starts than Jake and go longer per start. We only have our load management problem in Max.
This move allows the Mets to be more of a stable team and to truly move in a direction that is more Dodgers East than a Philadelphia misguided splurge or ending up like Boston who mismanaged the long term plan so much they let everyone walk except their 5th best player and through self inflicted wounds ended their contention window many years early.
Thanks, Lee. Agree that Verlander is likely an upgrade on deGrom’s 2022 performance. Where I worry is replacing Bassitt/Walker with Senga/Quintana. That could offset the gain on Verlander a bit.
Starting pitching is a wash. If they stay healthy. Last year the top 2 weren’t healthy so they couldn’t take us to the promised land in the end. But the secondary guys were healthy enough to provide the 5-6 competent innings each night to get us to the bullpen through the end of the season. I don’t think the floor drop off from Carrasco, Bassitt, Walker, Megill, Peterson and Williams of 2022 is determinably worse than the 2023 group of Carrasco, Senga, Quintana, Megill, Peterson, and Lucchessi. Beyond that Butto is probably better than last year, and they have that other guy from Miami.
I think they’ll do fine. Remember, in the end Bassitt was not an ace. Just an innings eater. Maybe, on the other hand, Senga will be an ace.
But bottom line is they need Scherzer Verlander ‘23 to do a hell of a lot better than Scherzer DeGrom ‘22. That’s fairly likely.
"But nobody is going to let Steve Cohen off the hook for his comments about Correa being the final piece they needed to put them over the top." I have. Carlos Correa is a problem child, albeit one with a great postseason track record. Let him win the AL MVP on a fourth place team. In the end, all things considered, he simply wasn't a fit (with all due respect to JB's risk analysis that I cannot follow). Onward, upward, bigger, better. Jurickson Profar is still out there - out of Mancini (I just like him); Duvall (slower but this guy can hit a bomb); and Profar, I'm thinking Mr. Flexibility may have a lot to prove. Wouldn't you rather see him up than Vogey or Ruf? Anyway, 33 days till spring training.
The risk analysis is great stuff espeically the Joey Chestnut reference. To me this was great news - Steve Cohen refused to make a deal with Bor-ass on damaged goods. Anytime Bor-ass gets sent away is good news. Again he needs to be banned from all sports.
It would be interesting for someone to do a piece that looks at the way Boras has struggled since 2018 to successfully sign big name clients, the AAVs and years of the contracts, and how he's had difficulty with top draft picks (like Rocker), getting good second contracts for players or midlevel talents, but nobody will do it. Bowtie at The Athletic - one of the first articles Jeff highlighted in his news section - is a puff piece about Boras which is typical and sad. You want to go all Bor-ass, do it for the sportswriters who have no spine and are hypocritical megalomaniacs like Rosenthal. Boras is just another real estate agent unaware of the recession holding out for commissions. He does a job. The mythos of Boras is a media creation.
You keep saying this over and over. And the "Bor-Ass" spelling is adolescent.
But I agree. I'm glad that Cohen refused to cave to a high-risk contract. Boras tried to get more guaranteed money for his client and did -- $42 million more -- from another team.
Bor-ASS doesant deserve another name - thats what he is a ASS ! and a scumbag. What is adolescent are your comments. All of them - they make no sense ever. Shocked you are reading this blog as you indicated you dont like them - which is it you do or dont
Let’s have peace at MetsFix. “Fight the real enemy” and tear up a pic of Joey Buttafuoco just like Madonna. Or if you insist on OG...Sinead O’Connor & Pope.
Like these references!
Yes, amazing references!
One reason the Mets wouldn’t want to rely on Correa as DH only option in back years - it would constrain the potential value of Othani. They need their long term contract players to be able to play the field. Bummer situation but the Mets did what they needed to do - hold the line & move on.
I think Cohen has shown us that he willing to take short term risk, but not long term. The Verlander and Scherzer contracts only set you back for a couple of years if the players flop. Almost all of these megadeals we are seeing will be an albatross in the later years. Lindor will not be an elite SS at age 40 or so. Players the size of Judge don’t have long careers. With Correa’s ankle the risk is even greater.
Good point. He went long-term on Lindor and Nimmo. I think he felt he had to make a big splash with Lindor. He probably could have waited on that one. And re-signing a homegrown player is different than going after someone else’s free agent.
Excellent piece, Jeff.
I haven't read anyone put it in these terms yet, but the Mets offered Correa exactly, precisely HALF of the original contract. Not a penny more.
I am glad to see them operating with restraint and intelligence.
We'll (eventually) be okay.
Fabulous analysis on Correa approach. Some choices are hard, and you explained many reasons why.
Let’s hear more about where Joey Lucchesi might fit in, please.
Yes, let's hear about all of our pitchers because in the end, that's what brings a championship most.
I don’t agree with your conclusions JB. I think Cohen cones out looking wishy washy. He’s willing to write the checks when his baseball people tell him to do so, but not willing to stand by his convictions.
Add it to the list: Alderson, Porter, Scott, McCann over Realmuto, Lindor over Arenado, trading for Baez, drafting Rocker and then changing his mind, melting down over Matz, inability to get the front office settled last fall, not getting a Schwarber like DH before last season even though he ultimately was willing to eat the Cano dollars, then letting his momo head front office get him Ruf and Vogi at the deadline, who he still has, holding on to every single “top 19” prospect when the season was set up for glory and much better hitters and relievers were available.
They’ve doubled down on the starting pitchers as savior come playoffs strategy which failed painfully last fall, not doing anything to improve the hitting which went on vacation during September and October.
Then he drunk signs Correa, going public to say this was the one thing we needed to put us over the top, to say hey it’s only money, it’s the cost of doing business, no big deal. Setting the club up for a grievance when it fell apart.
Opportunity cost: because we were in the midst of this, multiple other options to help the offense in short term high AAV deals (supposedly the plan) have signed elsewhere: Swanson, Brantley, Myers, JD Martinez, Drury, Benintendi, Segura, Longoria, Justin Turner, Conforto, Pollock, and yesterday Brandon Belt.
All those guys would have been better than Vogelbach and Ruf.
Duvall, Profar, Mancini are the last 3 options. And pray hard that Baty and Alvarez are great this season.
Because there is no turning back with the payroll commitments they have to Scherzer and Verlander. It’s win now, remember?
And btw, I can believe how simplistic the numbers trend on the Correa Zips projection. It’s a frigginn line with a gradual slope down on every single statistic starting immediately. But a single clear all star potential MVP season. How on earth is such a projection worth the money he says it’s worth?
Great thoughts, as always. You’ve mentioned the opportunity costs of missing out on several players a few times. I’m just not certain the Mets would have been heavy players on those guys even if Correa didn’t “get in the way.” And what I mean is, do the Mets sign Turner or JD to play DH if they weren’t “preoccupied” with Correa? I doubt that. Those are two unique situations. I think Pollock was looking for at-bats in Seattle that he might have struggled to get here. Conforto? I’m not sure the Mets wanted to go back there. So while I get what you’re saying, I think the next move is independent of those players.
So maybe those weren’t the guys. I was just listing everyone who signed since Dec 21, who we had no need for if we had Correa.
We are, as Cohen said, a bat short. JD Martinez is a bat. I think Justin Turner us a playoff proven bat, who can still field at third, which would have provided good depth, and in the days before Dec 21 he was the guy I wanted. Before that I wanted Boegarts, and before that Trea Turner. And Swanson came off the board in the midst of all this and he would have capped an amazing offseason just as well as we figure Correa would have. I’ve always said we need to improve the offense. And Cohen said the same thing just before Christmas. And now there are less options.
If Baty is ready to take off like a rocket and go ahead of Escobar on the depth chart, it’s a mute point. And we are just about as good as we were gonna be, except for the depth behind Lindor that Correa would have provided. But if he’s not ready to do so, we have a problem. Because that makes the odds of needing Guillorme to start 100 games high, and I’ll remind you he has never had a season free of extended time in the IL. If Danny Mendes or Jose Peraza is starting for two weeks because we have a long term injury this was a fail. If Darin Ruf is on this team, this is a fail.
Well written piece, Jeff. I would only argue your point that we're in essence 'only a couple of pieces different than last year's squad'. We do not have a pitcher at the top of the rotation who is questionable to appear in 50% of his starts followed by a guy starting to show wear and tear over the last 5-10 starts of a season and the postseason with resistance to load management. This year we have JV who will make most likely make more starts than Jake and go longer per start. We only have our load management problem in Max.
This move allows the Mets to be more of a stable team and to truly move in a direction that is more Dodgers East than a Philadelphia misguided splurge or ending up like Boston who mismanaged the long term plan so much they let everyone walk except their 5th best player and through self inflicted wounds ended their contention window many years early.
Thanks, Lee. Agree that Verlander is likely an upgrade on deGrom’s 2022 performance. Where I worry is replacing Bassitt/Walker with Senga/Quintana. That could offset the gain on Verlander a bit.
Starting pitching is a wash. If they stay healthy. Last year the top 2 weren’t healthy so they couldn’t take us to the promised land in the end. But the secondary guys were healthy enough to provide the 5-6 competent innings each night to get us to the bullpen through the end of the season. I don’t think the floor drop off from Carrasco, Bassitt, Walker, Megill, Peterson and Williams of 2022 is determinably worse than the 2023 group of Carrasco, Senga, Quintana, Megill, Peterson, and Lucchessi. Beyond that Butto is probably better than last year, and they have that other guy from Miami.
I think they’ll do fine. Remember, in the end Bassitt was not an ace. Just an innings eater. Maybe, on the other hand, Senga will be an ace.
But bottom line is they need Scherzer Verlander ‘23 to do a hell of a lot better than Scherzer DeGrom ‘22. That’s fairly likely.
What is War good for? Absolutely nothin’.
"But nobody is going to let Steve Cohen off the hook for his comments about Correa being the final piece they needed to put them over the top." I have. Carlos Correa is a problem child, albeit one with a great postseason track record. Let him win the AL MVP on a fourth place team. In the end, all things considered, he simply wasn't a fit (with all due respect to JB's risk analysis that I cannot follow). Onward, upward, bigger, better. Jurickson Profar is still out there - out of Mancini (I just like him); Duvall (slower but this guy can hit a bomb); and Profar, I'm thinking Mr. Flexibility may have a lot to prove. Wouldn't you rather see him up than Vogey or Ruf? Anyway, 33 days till spring training.
there is no banging trash can emoji to praise this comment and I am sad.
Britton is a Boras client. Here we go again...
The risk analysis is great stuff espeically the Joey Chestnut reference. To me this was great news - Steve Cohen refused to make a deal with Bor-ass on damaged goods. Anytime Bor-ass gets sent away is good news. Again he needs to be banned from all sports.
It would be interesting for someone to do a piece that looks at the way Boras has struggled since 2018 to successfully sign big name clients, the AAVs and years of the contracts, and how he's had difficulty with top draft picks (like Rocker), getting good second contracts for players or midlevel talents, but nobody will do it. Bowtie at The Athletic - one of the first articles Jeff highlighted in his news section - is a puff piece about Boras which is typical and sad. You want to go all Bor-ass, do it for the sportswriters who have no spine and are hypocritical megalomaniacs like Rosenthal. Boras is just another real estate agent unaware of the recession holding out for commissions. He does a job. The mythos of Boras is a media creation.
You keep saying this over and over. And the "Bor-Ass" spelling is adolescent.
But I agree. I'm glad that Cohen refused to cave to a high-risk contract. Boras tried to get more guaranteed money for his client and did -- $42 million more -- from another team.
Bor-ASS doesant deserve another name - thats what he is a ASS ! and a scumbag. What is adolescent are your comments. All of them - they make no sense ever. Shocked you are reading this blog as you indicated you dont like them - which is it you do or dont