Being smart and trying to win
What's next after the Lindor trade?
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
When talking about how teams are approaching this offseason, people have generally categorized clubs into two distinct categories: teams who are trying to win and teams who are not, with the amount of payroll an owner is willing to take on serving as the criteria to classify each club.
But what if we changed those category names to teams who are smart versus teams who are not? Where would you place the Tampa Bay Rays?
It is this slight difference in looking at payroll relative to team success that keeps Major League Baseball interesting from a macro perspective. Without the Rays, the gap between the haves and the have-nots would represent a competitive certainty. We wouldn’t be able to debate why Kevin Cash pulled Blake Snell while he was cruising through the powerful Dodgers lineup in a World Series game (read that again: World Series game), just as we wouldn’t be able to give the Tampa front office some benefit of the doubt in analyzing why they would trade the former Cy Young winner for any reason other than dumping salary.
Ideally, you want to be both things: you want to be on the cutting edge in building a perennial winner while spending money to fill in the gaps. Which brings us to the Steve Cohen Mets. After years of being neither smart nor aggressive in trying to win, the Amazins are suddenly market-setters.
This offseason — as all of the top free agents exchange texts with their agents that continue to say “no update” — the Mets have spent the most money, and last week, they traded for a superstar shortstop who is set to demand a $300 million extension and a veteran starter whose $12 million annual salary was too rich for the Cleveland baseball team that might start the season with a payroll under $50 million (categorize them as not trying to win).
While there are hundreds of millions of free agent dollars stuck in limbo like the COVID relief bill, the Amazins have handed out two of the most expensive contracts signed this offseason, which is incredible when you consider they inked two guys that most Mets fans would have to admit they had never heard of before they joined their favorite team.
But even the Mets have a limit this winter. While both Sandy Alderson and Jared Porter have hinted they are authorized to spend above the initial luxury tax threshold, Cohen has said he isn’t looking to spend like a drunken sailor.
By adding both Lindor and Carrasco, depending on arbitration estimates, the Mets have roughly $20-$25 million to spend before they reach the tax line. They’ve upgraded their catcher, added to the bullpen, and acquired one of the biggest stars in the sport. They are clearly trying to win. Now is when we find out if they know how to be smart…
Resetting the market
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
Entering this offseason, we knew two things to be quite certain:
The free agent market was going to be tight due to the pandemic
Steve Cohen was going to make a splashy move.
Agents could use the threat of Cohen’s wallet against the eagerness of the few other teams looking to spend money (i.e. the Blue Jays) as a counterweight to each other in driving up market prices for the top free agents.
“You better raise your offer on Springer because you know Cohen is getting ready to wire over the money…”
But now that the Mets have made their splash with Lindor, where does that leave the market?
Before the trade, Sandy Alderson was playing poker with the worst bluff at the table. As the night wore on and the drinks got stronger, everyone watching his stack knew he eventually had to go all in on a hand. Not anymore. The Mets could pass on the top remaining free agents and still return their chips at the end of the night for a sizable reward.
Where does this leave DJ LeMahieu, George Springer and Trevor Bauer with pitchers and catchers tentatively scheduled to report to camps in five weeks?
It leaves them wishing the Mets didn’t just trade for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. And it could leave Sandy Alderson and Jared Porter in a position where they are able to negotiate a discounted price for a top-tier free agent who plain and simply doesn’t have anywhere else to go. The negotiating point from agents could quickly turn from, You need to make a big signing due to the public pressure and expectations created by Cohen, to, You’re the only team willing to make a competitive offer.
THE PAYOFF PITCH: If the Mets are cognizant of the luxury tax threshold, it’s hard to believe they will be able to use their remaining payroll to sign a big name free agent. There’s a good chance they end up adding some mid-market pieces around Lindor, Carrasco, McCann, and May and call it a successful offseason at that. But the market has definitely changed with the timing of the Lindor trade. The result is not good for free agents, which could be very good for a hedge fund manager slash owner who is used to spending his money opportunistically (AKA being both smart and aggressive).
MORNING BRIEFING
Below are the additional sections that were sent in the original email newsletter this morning. We later move the analysis section to the top of this page for linking purposes.
⏰ Let’s catch you up on what you might have missed over the weekend…
🗓 INTRODUCTIONS: The Mets will introduce their new superstar Francisco Lindor on Monday at 11:00 AM. They will introduce Cookie Carrasco on Tuesday at 1:00 PM.
🍎 RELIEF OPTIONS: Mets claimed reliever Stephen Tarpley off waivers on Friday. You can picture Jared Porter running down his checklist in deciding to claim him: Tarpley, 27, is left-handed ☑️, strikes people out ☑️, and has 2 minor league options remaining ☑️.
🍎 SIGNING: Mets signed infielder Brandon Drury to a minor league deal. He will make $1.55MM if he makes the big league club, with a chance to earn $2.05MM, per Jon Heyman. The 28-year-old has 1 minor league option remaining.
🍎 HITTING COACH: After working remotely during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, hitting coach Chili Davis, who has a preexisting condition that puts him at greater risk to severe illness from COVID, told the New York Post he plans on rejoining the team on site in 2021.
🗣 BRYANT TALKS: As speculation continues to build about the Cubs moving on from Kris Bryant, SNY reports the Mets and Chicago haven’t spoken in several weeks.
🤚 LEFT-HANDED RELIEF: During separate interviews on WFAN on Friday, Sandy Alderson and Jared Porterindicated the team is still seeking left-handed help out of the bullpen.
💔 REMEMBERING TOMMY LASORDA: We lost a member of baseball royalty last week when Dodgers legend Tommy Lasorda passed away at the age of 93. Mets fans remember him as a rival (managing the 1988 Dodgers team that upset the Mighty Mets in the NLCS) and as Mike Piazza’s family friend and original talent evaluator. But my favorite Tommy story involving the Mets is about Tom Seaver. As described by the New York Times:
Seaver, who was studying dentistry, was the best pitcher on U.S.C.’s roster, and he was drafted by the Dodgers in 1965. In a much recounted story, the scout, Tommy Lasorda, later the Dodgers manager, offered him a $2,000 signing bonus, and in response Seaver asked for $50,000.
“Good luck in your dental career,” Lasorda reportedly told him, and the possibility of his becoming a Dodger vanished.
PIAZZA ON LASORDA: “Tommy took a chance on me and went to bat for me time and time again,” Piazza wrote on Twitter in response to Lasorda’s death. “In a room full of doubters, Tommy was the one person who believed in me.”
We are excited to announce that Mets Rewind will be helping us chronicle moments in Mets history in our newsletter.
📚 ON THIS DATE IN 1988: The Mets announce they will retire Tom Seaver’s uniform in a tribute to “the best player to perform for the Mets in their history.” Seaver becomes the third Met to have his number retired. The others were Casey Stengel (No. 37) and Gil Hodges (No. 14). That summer, the Mets held Tom Seaver Day at Shea.
📚 2005: Mets introduce Carlos Beltran at a press conference at Shea Stadium. Days earlier, Beltran agreed to a 7-year, $119 million deal with the team: “I am proud to be a part of the new Mets … this organization is going in a new direction, a direction of winning,” said Beltran. [More]
⚾️ The San Diego Padres are negotiating a contract extension with Fernando Tatis Jr. for $320 million over 11 seasons, per Pio Deportes.
⚾️ Free agent outfielder Kyle Schwarber signed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals.
⚾️ Free agent DJ LeMahieu is “dismayed” by the Yankees approach to re-signing him and will re-engage with other teams.
🔗 Francisco Lindor can be New York’s next icon, by Ken Davidoff, NY Post: “Alomar of course played second base, not shortstop, and like Soper’s current Marlins boss Jeter, most would describe his playing style as more cool or graceful, making the hard look easy, than electric like Lindor’s. Reyes, meanwhile, possessed more speed and less power than Lindor, who surpassed the 30-homer mark each year from 2017 through 2019. As for a LeBron James level of fame, well, Lindor has come to the right place to attempt to clear that high bar.”
🔗 Deep Dive: Look At What Mets Are Getting in Francisco Lindor, by Derek Reifer, MetsMerized Online: “Shortstop is the most important defensive position in the infield, and maybe the whole diamond – so often teams stick defensive studs with less-than-stellar bats there to shore up run prevention. Lindor is the rare gem that can rake like a corner outfielder at the position – and even with that elite bat, he’s debatably been a top-2 defensive shortstop since he entered the league.”
🔗 MLB Teams are in a spending freeze — and it’s about to get colder, by Buster Olney, ESPN (Insider)
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Disagree The Mets upgraded the catcher - they signed a Ramos clone. Also - as consituted the pitching staff needs a 5th starter. Doesnt have to be Bauer but going with Matz is a loss every 5 days. This is espcialley true when they have Diaz and Familia coming out of the bullpen.