The X-Factor

Morning Dose: Wednesday, February 12

☀️ Good Morning:

For a brief moment on a warm July night at Citi Field, it felt like the Mets were invincible.

You remember the night. The Mets had won 26 of 37, 10 of 13, and four in a row, including three straight against the arch nemesis Yankees and Braves.

The OMG rallying call had reached a crescendo with Kodai Senga returning to the mound as the team’s pocket ace. Through 5.1 innings, he looked healthier than ever, striking out nine of the 20 batters he faced.

The atmosphere was electric. Everything was clicking.

And then this:

A momentum stopper. Before the dramatic home runs in Atlanta and Milwaukee, before the miraculous playoff performance against the Phillies, there was a period of sluggishness following Senga’s injury that carried into August.

The Amazins lost 10 of the next 13. They finally started clicking again a few weeks later and Senga eventually tried to return to the mound in October, but his injury and the mysterious timeline surrounding his return still lingers.

So as we prepare for the 2025 season, there is perhaps no greater X-factor than the status of Kodai Senga. A pitcher who could turn what looks on paper to be a very average rotation into a pretty good one.

“I’m not worried at all,” Senga said through an interpreter at the Mets’ spring training complex on Tuesday. “I just need to ramp up slowly and get through spring training healthy and get through the year healthy.”

Senga might not be worried, but Mets fans can be. As I texted a friend yesterday, I will feel better about Senga when he is actually making starts in April.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

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We learned a lot yesterday, so let’s highlight the key takeaways.

🍎 The Mets plan on using a six-man rotation. “If Senga’s healthy -- knock on wood -- there’s a good chance we’ll go with a six-man rotation throughout the year, even with some off days included there,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “We got options. We got depth.”

• Senga, Manaea, Montas, Peterson, Holmes should be the mainstays. That leaves Paul Blackburn and Griffin Canning as potential sixth starters. Both players have the requisite service time to refuse a minor-league assignment, so if everyone is healthy (Blackburn is hoping to be ready after a spinal fluid leak in October), one would have to be a long-man out of the bullpen if they aren’t acting as the sixth starter.

🍎 José Buttó will remain a reliever. I will talk some more about the importance of his role in a bit. The Mets envision him being a multi-inning weapon in the bullpen.

🍎 Ronny Mauricio will not appear in spring games until at least mid-March. This should come as no surprise. He continues to recover from knee surgery, going through his running progression. I wouldn’t expect him to be performing at a high level again until much deeper into the season.

🍎 Jeff McNeil is going to play second base, but his role might be fluid. “Look, Jeff McNeil is coming into camp here with an opportunity to be the second baseman,” Mendoza told reporters. “There’s competition but Jeff is pretty much right there. He's a big part of this team . . . The good thing with Jeff is he provides versatility. So you can move him around everywhere.”

• This opens the door for Luisangel Acuña and even Brett Baty to earn some time at second. Mendoza mentioned Baty will play third as much as possible, but will “give him some exposure” at second.

• The Mets will also give both Acuña and Nick Madrigal looks at new positions, at third and short, respectively.