The Metropolitan: What Goodfellas tells us about the offseason
Plus catching you up on a busy weekend of Mets news
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone and Blake Zeff
After Steve Cohen became owner of the Mets, in the minds of most fans the offseason was supposed to go something like the scene in Goodfellas when Henry takes Karen to Copacabana on their first date and handshakes, tips, and how ya doin’s his way to a seat in the front row of the club that the maitre’d specially sets up for them when they arrive.
The days of waiting in line and missing out on the party while everyone else had fun were supposed to be over for the Mets. Cohen’s wealth and bravado would give his new team direct access to any player they wanted. And while this is still true — the best player to switch teams this offseason (Francisco Lindor) now plays for the Mets — as prominent names like George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, and Trevor Bauer ended up somewhere else, it has left many fans feeling like the new regime hasn’t quite lived up to the “If we wanted something, we just took it” motto made famous in the Martin Scorsese’ mob film.
It’s unclear whether the Mets are strategically waiting out the market to sign or trade for additional reinforcements at the right price, or if they are waiting in line because they don’t have a clear enough vision to just go and take what they want. Turning over an entire front office is challenging in normal times; the Mets are doing it under new ownership and with a GM they originally hired to analyze stats.
As pitchers and catchers are set to report this week, the Amazins thus find themselves in an interesting position: they have a roster projected to win 91 to 95 games (depending on which projection system you trust), but also one that has clear weaknesses—on defense, in the bullpen, and in the back of the rotation.
Lugo’s injury aside, the Mets clearly could use another reliever, but there is an even bigger need to find another starting pitcher.
When Bauer spurned the Mets to pitch under the Southern California sun and smog, New York went from potentially having, hands-down, the best starting rotation in all of baseball to leaving their fans worried whether they have enough arms to get them through the season.
For all of the talk about character and spin rate and down years vs Cy Young years, missing out on Bauer also meant missing out on a starter who would have almost certainly pitched at least 170 innings this season (as he has in each of his past five full major league campaigns). This, after the Mets traded away Steven Matz, who, on a much different scale than Bauer, provides his own ups and downs, but also started at least 30 games in 2018 and 2019, and was 6th on the team in innings pitched in 2020 even though he missed some time late in the season due to shoulder discomfort.
In a perfect world, the Mets will realize the upside of offseason acquisitions Joey Lucchesi and/or Jordan Yamamoto, but being realistic, neither should be counted on to eat significant innings in 2021. Their value is providing the Mets with arms who are slightly better than career minor leaguers or young kids not quite ready to progress to the majors. The front office prioritized finding pitchers with minor league options so they can shuttle between Syracuse and Queens, and Lucchesi and Yamamoto give them that.
Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, and Marcus Stroman are a pretty impressive trio at the top of the rotation. It will be fun to see how David Peterson progresses off a strong rookie campaign. Eventually, Noah Syndergaard will return. But there is still a need to find another starter who can reliably pitch major league innings.
No staff in baseball has greater injury risk than the Mets’, per Eno Sarris/Jeff Zimmerman’s recent percentile rankings. Fans of the blue and orange don’t need to be reminded that their favorite team is one awkward pitch away from a devastating injury. As acting GM Zack Scott said on Friday, you can never have enough pitching.
So who is still available to sign? It seems like everyone who has been linked to the Mets has put ink to paper with another team over the past several days. Former Mets product (traded for Carlos Delgado 15 years ago) Yusmeiro Petit is staying in Oakland. Starter James Paxton is headed to Seattle. Rich Hill will pitch for the Rays. And without much disappointment from Mets fans, Jake Arrieta is returning to the Cubs. That leaves Jake Odorizzi and Taijuan Walker as two of the best remaining starter candidates left in the free agency pile.
There is, of course, one other possibility. As the Mets watched free agent after free agent drop off the board over the last few days — leaving the club with glaring holes in the rotation and bullpen — some wondered whether they may be focused instead on the trade market. Rumors have linked them to everyone from Kris Bryant and Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs, to Eugenio Suárez and Sonny Gray of the Reds.
At this point, if a trade is not brewing, it looks like the remaining options are free agents Trevor Rosenthal, Jeremy Jeffress and Justin Wilson (linked to the Yankees over the weekend) in the pen, and the aforementioned Odorizzi and Walker in the rotation.
It’s reasonable to expect we’ll see one or more names like these on the backs of Mets uniforms before long. This offseason was supposed to be about the Mets taking what they wanted. In some ways, they have. But as players start to report to camp, it’s interesting to find New York waiting in line for some of the last available options in the free agent marketplace.
MORNING BRIEFING
Below are the additional sections that were sent in the original email newsletter this morning. We later move the analysis section to the top of this page for linking purposes.
⏰ Catching you up on a busy weekend of Mets news…
🤕 LUGO: The Mets announced on Saturday that right-hander Seth Lugo will undergo surgery to remove a loose body from his throwing elbow. Following the procedure (set for Tuesday), he won’t be able to throw for six weeks, before he transitions into a throwing program, which will keep him out of games until at least late April.
WHY NOW? Lugo apparently suffered the injury during his normal offseason throwing program. He told MLB.com that he didn’t notice anything until his elbow began to swell last week. After a few days, he notified the Mets and an MRI revealed the injury.
RELIABLE: Lugo is a key arm for the 2021 Mets, giving them a consistent reliever in the back of the bullpen who can work late innings alongside closer Edwin Díaz and set-up men Trevor May and Miguel Castro. Without Lugo, the need for the front office to find another reliable reliever only increases (and he was also, of course, an emergency option to join the rotation, should the need have arisen). While Lugo might be able to recover in time to return early in the season, it is no sure thing — and his injury raises a warning flag about the bullpen depth.
ROSTER: Just two days before the Lugo news, the Mets designated reliever Brad Brach for assignment to make room for recently-acquired middle infielder Jonathan Villar on the 40-man roster. With the departure of Brach and Lugo likely to start the season on the injured list, it will be interesting to see how the Mets fill out their active roster with either internal depth or outside help (more in a bit).
🍎 STATE OF PLAY: Acting general manager Zack Scott met with the media on Friday and indicated that the team still plans on making some moves before Opening Day.
PITCHING: “I definitely subscribe to the ‘never can have too much pitching’ cliché,” Scott said one day before the team announced Lugo’s injury. “I’ve seen that in my years with the Red Sox, where the fastest way for your season to go sideways or backwards is to not have quality pitching depth or to have too many injuries there. You always have to expect some level of injuries, so increasing our depth is always something I think we’ll be pursuing.”
THIRD BASE: “We really like J.D. Davis,” Scott said, amid rumors the team may try to upgrade at third. “He’s someone that can really hit, and obviously we can have him under control for a while. He’s a really valuable player to our organization…I know there’s been a lot of rumors out there. We’re going to always look for ways to improve the team in any way we can. But we’re fully comfortable going into the season with J.D. Davis playing an important role on our club.”
EXTENSIONS: Scott said the Mets have not started negotiations on potential extensions for either Francisco Lindor or Michael Conforto yet: “I’ve always looked at those, the best time to do that is in spring training, and I think we’ll have those conversations.”
✍️ SIGNINGS: The Mets signed pitchers Mike Montgomery and Tommy Hunter to minor league deals on Sunday.
LOW COST: The Mets will be bringing a ton of players (70) to camp this year. Montgomery and Hunter give them two more arms that don’t cost them anything other than a non-roster invite. And maybe one or both of them turn into something.
MONTGOMERY: The 31-year-old southpaw appeared in only 3 games last year due to injuries, but pitched in at least 30 contests in each of the previous four seasons, including recording the final out of the 2016 World Series for the Cubs. He doesn’t strike a lot of people out, but when he’s pitching well, he reduces hard contact. He can both start and pitch out of the bullpen.
HUNTER: The 34-year-old right-hander maintains excellent fastball spin but has seen his velocity precipitously drop from 95.4 in 2017 to 91.7 last year while pitching for the Phillies. However, he has good command, which is always welcome out of the bullpen.
🗣 MAKING A SPLASH: A report over the weekend from Mark Feinsand quoted an NL executive as saying “I still think the Mets are going to try and do something big. They really want to make a splash and spend some money. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go off the rails and trade for a big name.”
🌴 SPRING TRAINING: The Mets released their Spring Training roster over the weekend. While they included all of the team’s top prospects (Matt Allan, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ronny Mauricio, Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty), the name that jumped out to everyone was Tim Tebow, who once again secures a non-roster invite despite hitting just .154 in 34 spring games over the past four years.
REVISED SCHEDULE: The team also released a revised Spring Training schedule that consolidates all 24 exhibition games against just four opponents (Miami, Washington, St. Louis, and Houston) into the month of March, beginning on March 1 against the Miami Marlins.
🍎 ORG MOVES: The Mets promotedSteve Barningham to director of international scouting. They hiredJeremy Barnes to be their director of player development initiatives. And they have parted ways with senior strength and conditioning consultant Mike Barwis, a prominent name during the Wilpon era.
🍎 CASH TRADE: After designating catcher Ali Sánchez for assignment, the Mets have worked out a trade to send him to the Cardinals for cash considerations.
📚 February 15, 1961:M. Donald Grant offers Branch Rickey a contract to become the GM of the expansion New York Mets. Rickey, the former GM of the Browns, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Dodgers, turns down the job. The team later announces George Weiss as the team's first GM.
Former Mets were all over the news this weekend:
⚾️ Justin Turner is returning to the Dodgers on a two-year contract.
⚾️ Matt Harvey signed a minor league contract with the Baltimore Orioles, per Jon Heyman.
⚾️ Jay Bruce signed a minor league contract with the Yankees, per Mark Feinsand.
⚾️ And still another former Met Jared Hughes hung up his cleats and called it a career, after an effective 10-season run.
🔗 Home Run Apple a beloved Mets tradition, by Anthony DiComo, MLB.com: “So it has gone for more than four decades in Flushing, where a mechanical piece of fruit has become an institution. The original Apple dates to 1980, shortly after original owner Joan Payson’s family sold the team to a group led by Nelson Doubleday…To combat flagging interest, Doubleday hired prominent advertising executive Jerry Della Femina, who created the slogan, ‘The Magic is Back.’ The Home Run Apple, which was the brainchild of longtime Mets executive Al Harazin, became a centerpiece of that campaign.”
🔗 Pete Alonso eyes massive Mets season, by Steve Serby, NY Post: “I’m feeling dangerous. This is the best I’ve felt physically and mentally in my career. I’m ready to make history and ready to drive in 130 steaks.”
🔗 Scout sizes up the Mets’ rotation in 2021, via Bill Madden, NY Daily News: “As for the Mets, Carrasco was a nice addition but in my mind they still don’t have a legitimate No. 2 behind deGrom. I’m not a big Stroman guy. He has his moments but just not consistently dominant or durable enough for me. And I don’t think they should be counting so much on Syndergaard. It usually takes at least one season of pitching after Tommy John surgery for pitchers to get back to being the same as they were.”
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