Good Morning,
Today we’ll talk about the Mets’ negotiating position in their quest to extend Francisco Lindor, but we start with the day’s news.
⏰ Recap the game in 60(ish) seconds…
🍎 BATTERS UP: Despite the team’s hot start with its bats (plating 5 runs in two innings), newcomers Jerad Eickhoff and Jacob Barnes both struggled in allowing 7 combined runs over the first three innings, and the Mets lost a 14-9 slugfest against the Cardinals on Wednesday.
🔝 PROSPECT: 2019 First Round pick Brett Baty showed off his impressive size, slicing a pinch-hit, two-run double into the gap in the ninth inning.
🔥 HOT START: After collecting a hit in the spring opener, outfielder Kevin Pillar added a double and a triple in the loss, as he makes a strong first impression on his new team.
DEFENSE: Before the game, Manager Luis Rojas expressed confidence in Pillar’s defense, despite the fact that advanced stats have shown a decline: “This guy’s a veteran, he can read swings, he will know where to position himself,” Rojas told reporters. “Let’s say that we expect him to be the outfielder he has been in the past and then we’ll go from there.”
👋 FORMER MET: Traded to make roster space in February, former Mets catcher Ali Sanchez crushed a 412-foot home run off Marcel Renteria.
In other news…
🂡 ACE: Jacob deGrom will make his spring debut on Saturday against the Astros. This will allow him to make up to five starts on regular rest before he presumably takes the ball Opening Day on April 1.
⌚️ LATE STARTS: After arriving later to camp, Dom Smith will make his debut on Thursday against the Nationals. Neither Carlos Carrasco nor Taijuan Walker have been scheduled for their first appearances yet.
⚾️ RELIEVERS: Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Trevor May, Robert Gsellman and Aaron Loup are all expected to pitch on Thursday.
😳 SURPRISED: Outfield prospect Khalil Lee admitted to being surprised when finding out he was traded from the Royals to the Mets this offseason: “Once it hit me and settled in, I was excited,” Lee told SNY. “I was like … 'That could be a real good opportunity.’ I was for sure excited once it all hit me and I got past that confused stage, that 'catch me off-guard' stage. I definitely settled in and was like ‘Yeah, I’m a New York Met.’”
😡 ENOUGH: While we’ve all had enough of the Trevor Bauer noise surrounding the Mets, his agent said the former Cy Young winner almost made Queens his home when Mets merch was leaked online in the hours before his final decision was announced.
“It’s f–king over, I’m done,” Bauer’s agent recalled him saying, in her appearance on Barstool’s Starting 9 podcast. “Call the Dodgers, it’s done. It’s gonna be the other team [the Mets].”
What if the Mets don’t extend Lindor?
🧑🦱 by Blake Zeff
We’ll start this off with a spoiler: The Mets should extend Francisco Lindor. He’s a generational talent — adept at (switch) hitting, fielding, running, hitting for power and a positive leader on any team, all at a premium position (and, oh yeah, he’s also in his prime). The Mets are lucky to have him in the franchise, and the fan base is going to fall in love with him. Plus, the club gave up some quality talent to land him (and excellent starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco). Oh, and their owner, Steve Cohen, can afford the big contract because he has a lot of money. Way more than you or me.
But — you knew there was a but coming — what if they don’t? We are now two weeks into spring training, and negotiations have not yet begun, so far as anyone outside of the two sides knows. Lindor previously indicated he wanted a potential deal done before opening day, which gives the Mets about a month left. Shortly after they completed the trade for Lindor and Carrasco, SNY’s Andy Martino reported that the front office would consider the deal satisfactory if it only resulted in one year of control for Lindor and three for Carrasco. In other words, they made the swap without an expectation of extending the star shortstop.
And yet, everyone understands that when you acquire a superstar, you want to keep that superstar. And after Fernando Tatis, Jr., netted a $340 million contract, expectations around baseball are that Lindor might seek similar money. If the Mets can’t reach an agreement with their shortstop, that would not be ideal. But would it be fatal?
The Mets may actually have more leverage than it seems. There are 14 billion and four reasons why.
The first fourteen billion reasons are in Steve Cohen’s bank account. The hedge-fund maestro is worth 14,000 millionaires, and that means that even if he misses out on Lindor this off-season, he can still afford to out-spend any other suitor for him next off-season, if need be. Or, Cohen can use that fortune to acquire another marquee shortstop. Which brings us to the other four reasons not to fret too much: Along with Lindor, shortstops Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez are also free agents next year. Which means, sure, the Mets would love to keep Lindor in blue and orange (and maybe black?) for the next decade. But if they fail to reel him in this month, they’ll have plenty of more-than-decent fallback options awaiting them in November.
In essence, there are four potential scenarios awaiting the Mets right now, as it relates to Lindor:
1) They extend him, and he’s awesome. This one feels the most likely right now. And it works out for everyone. It’s the outcome I’m rooting for: Lindor is a Met until 2030 (the final years of that deal may not be so hot, but that’s the price of business), and the club has a dynamic leader locked in place. This is the outcome you want to root for.
2) They extend him, but he’s a bust. It’s hard to imagine Lindor falling off a cliff. He’s 27, he’s played on the big stage in postseason and All-Star games, and other than the weird, abbreviated 2020, he’s been a consistent stallion. But the possibility isn’t null — Mets fans don’t need me to remind them of middle infielders who’ve come to New York and forgotten how to play (ahem, Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Luis Castillo, Kaz Matsui, Robinson Cano). And, while the likelihood is tiny, this would be the most regrettable of all the options: being stuck with a bloated contract that you’re still paying down in 2030.
3) They don’t extend him, and he’s a bust in his one season here. This isn’t a great scenario — you had high hopes, you traded some talent for him — but it’s not the worst. You essentially dodged a bullet, by cutting your losses and avoiding a Jacoby-Ellsworth-on-steroids type contract disaster. And Story, Seager, Correa and Baez are more than acceptable options waiting for you at season’s end.
4) They don’t extend him, and he’s incredible. This may happen, too. But here’s the thing. If Francisco Lindor has an amazing season in New York, it stands to reason that he’d at least be open to the idea of returning, even if the team didn’t extend him sooner. The risk here is that you might be able to get him for $300 million now, but if he takes home the MVP this year, he’s upped his value to $400 million. But this is not an insurmountable obstacle. Why? As noted above, Steve Cohen has $14 billion. He can afford the higher price on Lindor (remember, it’s not your money). Besides, even if you do miss out on Lindor at that point, Uncle Steve still has that cash and the remaining four shortstops are also on the market.
Ultimately, the feel-good story is the Mets extend Francisco Lindor this month, he dazzles us this season and beyond, and eventually joins Seaver, Piazza and Wright on Mets Mount Rushmore. But if they don’t? You’ve eliminated any chance of the nightmare scenario of blowing $300 million on a guy who falters (as improbable as that is). You can still sign him at the end of the year using Cohen Bucks. And if that doesn’t pan out? You’ll get a different big-time shortstop instead.
So I hope the Mets extend Francisco Lindor this month. But if not? There are those 14 billion and four reasons not to launch into full-blown panic.
⚾️ The universal DH and expanded playoff format are both “dead issues” for the 2021 season, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic.
⚾️ Free agent outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. plans to sign a two-year, $24 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers (with an opt-out after the first year), as first reported by Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe.
⚾️ Yankees manager Aaron Boone took an immediate leave of absence to get a pacemaker.
⚾️ MLB plans annual ‘Lou Gehrig Day’ on June 2 to honor the Yankees legend and raise ALS awareness, per ESPN.
🔗 Pillar, Almora give Mets quality outfield depth, by Anthony DiComo, MLB.com: “Rather than acquire a starting outfielder, they inked Kevin Pillar and Albert Almora Jr. to contracts worth $5 million and $1.25 million, respectively, giving them -- on paper, at least -- the deepest mix they have had in years.”
🔗 Mets still adjusting to COVID protocols, by Mike Puma, NY Post: “During exhibition games — the first two of which for the Mets were limited to seven innings as a safety measure — Rojas has found himself reminding players to wear masks in the dugout. Dugout space is tight at the Mets’ home, Clover Park, so Rojas is asking players to remain in a room until their time to play arrives.”
🔗 No Bauer or Springer? How the Mets addressed their biggest roster need without a free-agent splash, by David Schoenfield, ESPN: “The Mets don’t need all [of their] secondary players to be great; they just need them to be not bad. In a sense, while the Mets didn’t end up spending Cohen’s money on the big free agents, they did take advantage of a soft market to reel in [depth] free agents. The fact that so many teams elected to sit out free agency worked to the Mets’ benefit.”
And we leave you with Luis Rojas’ heartfelt message to Yankees manager Aaron Boone, after it was announced he will temporarily leave the team for medical reasons…
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